Canadian Political Polls

jdobbin · February 7, 2009

Latest Ipsos Reid poll:

http://www2.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/...3d-31b2981208f5

The popularity gap between the government and the official Opposition has narrowed once again, with 37 per cent of decided voters supporting Stephen Harper's Conservatives and 31 per cent behind Michael Ignatieff's Liberals, according to the results of the latest Ipsos Reid poll.

The Bloc is up again as well in Quebec.

Smallc · February 7, 2009

The Bloc is up again as well in Quebec.

Interesting. I'd like to find out the numbers on that.

stignasty · February 7, 2009

The Bloc has the support of 42 per cent of Quebecers, an increase of seven points, over the Liberals at 24 per cent, the Conservatives at 18 per cent, the NDP at 11 per cent and the Greens at 10 per cent. Five per cent of voters are undecided.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Ignatief...2251/story.html

madmax · February 7, 2009

The Bloc has the support of 42 per cent of Quebecers, an increase of seven points, over the Liberals at 24 per cent, the Conservatives at 18 per cent, the NDP at 11 per cent and the Greens at 10 per cent.

I liked the rest of the article, but I don't pay attention to national polls that cover Quebec. The Crop polls appear to be the most accurate.

normanchateau · February 8, 2009

Latest Ipsos Reid poll:
http://www2.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/...3d-31b2981208f5

This is the first poll since the last federal election which has the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives in six provinces. Those six provinces account for 70% of the population. Only in Western Canada do the Conservatives still lead. Not likely that the Conservatives are going to gain seats in Western Canada in the next election.

Vancouver King · February 10, 2009

The Liberal march to government continues....

Just released Harris-Decima poll for Canadian Press:

Liberals - 33%

CPC 31

NDP 15

Green 10

Bloc 10

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...10?hub=Politics

jdobbin · February 10, 2009

The Liberal march to government continues....
Just released Harris-Decima poll for Canadian Press:

It certainly can't be what Harper thought was going to happen when he was playing games with the economic statement.

punked · February 10, 2009

It certainly can't be what Harper thought was going to happen when he was playing games with the economic statement.

This is great news for Harper

Vancouver King · February 10, 2009

This is great news for Harper

You mean Harper has the Liberals exactly where he wants them?

jdobbin · February 11, 2009

Latest Strategic Counsel poll.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The latest Strategic Counsel poll, conducted between Feb. 5 and Feb. 9 for CTV and the Globe and Mail, shows that the two main parties have seen a shift in support since last October's federal election (difference in brackets):
* Conservatives: 32 per cent (-6)

* Liberals: 33 per cent (+7)

* NDP: 17 per cent (-1)

* Bloc Quebecois: 5 per cent (-5)

* Green Party: 13 per cent (+6)

Maybe this is why Harper is rumoured to be looking at stepping down.

Vancouver King · February 11, 2009

Latest Strategic Counsel poll.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Maybe this is why Harper is rumoured to be looking at stepping down.

I've read a thousand polls and can't recall anything close to these Quebec numbers. Like an electoral chameleon the province changes it's spots again, this time sending the Greens - yes the Greens - into the lead as the choice of 26% voters.

Although this lead won't last, if the country eventually gets a handful of Green seats from the province's turmoil, the whole country's politics will be enriched for it. The same people who bring you the negativity of the Bloc might now make amends by delivering Green seats.

If there is such as thing as spectacle in poll results, this sounding has to be it.

normanchateau · February 11, 2009

The Liberal march to government continues....
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...10?hub=Politics

Also, from this poll:

"The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates the newly minted Liberal leader is viewed more favourably than either Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper or NDP Leader Jack Layton.

Indeed, Ignatieff was the only national leader to score a net positive rating, with 43 per cent of respondents saying they had a favourable impression of him versus 32 per cent who had an unfavourable opinion.

Harper was viewed favourably by 43 per cent and unfavourably by 49 per cent, relatively unchanged since last October's election."

Not only has Ignatieff's favourability rating now matched Harper's, a feat Dion could never accomplish, but the difference in unfavourability is remarkable.

It seems that Canadians bought the old CPC ads of the need for a strong leader and are responding by moving to the leader who has Harper on a leash.

Just as Harper managed to gain seats in the last election by running against the weakest Liberal leader in the history of the party, Ignatieff will gain seats by running against the most hypocritical and humiliated "Tory" in the history of the party.

Will the disorganized Conservative Party of Canada figure out that they need to replace failed "economist" Harper before the next election? Not a chance.

jdobbin · March 10, 2009

Latest Ipsos and Strategic Counsel polls:

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews...050694620090310

An Ipsos Reid poll for CanWest News Service said the Liberals had risen 2 percentage points to 33 percent since its last poll in early February. The Conservatives were stable at 37 percent.
Ipsos Reid Chief Executive Darrell Bricker said the results should help cool speculation in Ottawa that Ignatieff could try to bring down the minority Conservative government in the next few months.

"If I was leader of the opposition, I would look at these results and say, 'You know what, no big hurry.' It's like a Formula One race: you take a guy one lap at a time," he said.

In a smaller sample poll:

A smaller Strategic Counsel survey for the Globe and Mail said the Liberals had slipped 2 points to 31 percent from last month, with the Conservatives rising 3 points to 35 percent.
Pollster Peter Donolo said Prime Minister Stephen Harper had benefited from the positive publicity that surrounded last month's successful visit by U.S. President Barack Obama.

But he noted that the Liberals were making gains in the French-speaking province of Quebec, where he said the Conservatives were likely to lose seats in the next election.

I'd say Ignatieff should let Harper stew a bit.

My thinking is Harper might call an election himself before things get worse. He will try to blame the Liberals for it if he can.

blueblood · March 10, 2009

Latest Ipsos and Strategic Counsel polls:
I'd say Ignatieff should let Harper stew a bit.

My thinking is Harper might call an election himself before things get worse. He will try to blame the Liberals for it if he can.

in other words, we're still in the holding pattern...

jdobbin · March 10, 2009

in other words, we're still in the holding pattern...

Not quite. Both polls say the Tories would lose seats in Ontario and Quebec. The numbers are now heavily skewed by Alberta which has massive support for the Tories. An election today might very well be a Liberal minority. If that was the case, Harper would be out for sure. It is no wonder why other Tory MPs are using their French a lot in the House.

blueblood · March 10, 2009

Not quite. Both polls say the Tories would lose seats in Ontario and Quebec. The numbers are now heavily skewed by Alberta which has massive support for the Tories. An election today might very well be a Liberal minority. If that was the case, Harper would be out for sure. It is no wonder why other Tory MPs are using their French a lot in the House.

Harper and Tory Brass mis timed their coalition strategy. All of their eggs are in the economy basket. If the economy recovers before an election, that would be in the tories favor. I don't think calling an election now would be a good idea, unless Harper thinks the economy will tank for years.

Canadian Blue · March 10, 2009

About a month ago a poll said the Green Party was leading in Quebec, that just goes to show you how useless polling is between elections.

If their was an election today, I figure we'd have a reduced Tory minority, however the west would still be solidly Conservative with just enough support in Ontario and Atlantic Canada to form a government.

But I will say this, the biggest loser seems to be the New Democrats. It would not surprise me if they were to lose close to half their seats to the Liberal Party. They had a chance to deliver a deathblow to their opposition and blew it.

Ignatieff was showcasing his intelligence by not going forward with the coalition. It would have been disasterous for the Liberal Party brand, I doubt anyone would have wanted to be tainted with that disaster in waiting. Now Ignatieff can go around fundraising, delivering speeches, and building up grassroots support. This will make the Liberals a threatening force in the next election.

With regards to having a majority or a minority, chances are we'll be in a perpetual minority situation in Canada. With a united right the CPC can shave off just enough seats in the east while maintaining their western stronghold to deny the LPC that chance.

Without those 100+ seats the Liberals got in Ontario they'll have to build bridges out to western Canada, which will be difficult considering their support for centralized government and opposition to Senate reform.

Edited March 10, 2009 by Canadian Blue

jdobbin · March 11, 2009

About a month ago a poll said the Green Party was leading in Quebec, that just goes to show you how useless polling is between elections.

And it was pointed out then that the sample was far too small for Quebec to come up with a number for that province. It is why most people referred to the CROP and Leger polls instead.

If their was an election today, I figure we'd have a reduced Tory minority, however the west would still be solidly Conservative with just enough support in Ontario and Atlantic Canada to form a government.

Could be. But the overall numbers for Harper are not headed up but down. A reduced minority would be as good as failure for him and I think his party would show him the door.

But I will say this, the biggest loser seems to be the New Democrats. It would not surprise me if they were to lose close to half their seats to the Liberal Party. They had a chance to deliver a deathblow to their opposition and blew it.

I certainly don't seeing them making gains beyond what they have now.

Ignatieff was showcasing his intelligence by not going forward with the coalition. It would have been disasterous for the Liberal Party brand, I doubt anyone would have wanted to be tainted with that disaster in waiting. Now Ignatieff can go around fundraising, delivering speeches, and building up grassroots support. This will make the Liberals a threatening force in the next election.

Which could be this year. I don't think Harper wants the Opposition to bring down the government. It just doesn't sit well with him.

With regards to having a majority or a minority, chances are we'll be in a perpetual minority situation in Canada. With a united right the CPC can shave off just enough seats in the east while maintaining their western stronghold to deny the LPC that chance.

If the Tories keep sinking in Quebec, the Liberals may very well squeak by with a majority.

Without those 100+ seats the Liberals got in Ontario they'll have to build bridges out to western Canada, which will be difficult considering their support for centralized government and opposition to Senate reform.

Senate reform is not a priority with most people. Anything involving opening the Constitution is a non-starter.

Canadian Blue · March 11, 2009

Could be. But the overall numbers for Harper are not headed up but down. A reduced minority would be as good as failure for him and I think his party would show him the door.

According to the numbers after the last Liberal leadership convention Dion was also headed for a majority government.

If the Tories keep sinking in Quebec, the Liberals may very well squeak by with a majority.

Probably not, more or less because the Bloc is always resilient. You'd be banking on the Liberals winning nearly all of the seats in Quebec or Ontario for that too happen, it won't since the right's been united.

Senate reform is not a priority with most people. Anything involving opening the Constitution is a non-starter.

But then again most of Liberal Party policies aren't fondly looked upon in the west.

punked · March 11, 2009

According to the numbers after the last Liberal leadership convention Dion was also headed for a majority government.

Citation needed

Canadian Blue · March 11, 2009

Citation needed

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/14042..._after_dion_win

They were at the 40% mark which is generally acknowledged to amount to a majority with the NDP largely flatlining.

jdobbin · March 11, 2009

According to the numbers after the last Liberal leadership convention Dion was also headed for a majority government.

Only one poll showed a possible Liberal majority. The rest of the polls showed a statistical tie. By the following week, the Tories had the lead again.

Probably not, more or less because the Bloc is always resilient. You'd be banking on the Liberals winning nearly all of the seats in Quebec or Ontario for that too happen, it won't since the right's been united.

Given how the Tories are doing in Ontario in a number of polls, I expect that numbers are being looked at in the west. Cities remain a target of possible gains.

But then again most of Liberal Party policies aren't fondly looked upon in the west.

And Conservative polices are not looked fondly upon in the East. Quebec will agree to no changes to the Senate and they have a good legal challenge if legislated changes are made.

jdobbin · March 11, 2009

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/14042..._after_dion_win
They were at the 40% mark which is generally acknowledged to amount to a majority with the NDP largely flatlining.

As I said, only one poll. There were others that week and by the following week the Liberals were trailing again.

Canadian Blue · March 11, 2009

Given how the Tories are doing in Ontario in a number of polls, I expect that numbers are being looked at in the west. Cities remain a target of possible gains.

Be honest, the polls don't show the Liberals getting a vast majority in Ontario, it'll likely be similar to 2006.

Edited March 11, 2009 by Canadian Blue

jdobbin · March 11, 2009

Be honest, the polls don't show the Liberals getting a vast majority in Ontario, it'll likely be similar to 2006.

Didn't say these polls pointed to a Liberal majority. I just know that a Tory minority is not a guarantee and that the numbers show that too much of Tory support is weighted in the west, especially Alberta.