are we underestimating Dion?

[madmax]

I'm surprised that anyone in Canada would believe any promise made by a Liberal. Do you really believe that if Dion became PM he would institute this green shift?

Why would I not believe Dion or any LPC member? I remember the campaign.... hard, very hard against Conservative Wage and Price Controls. I remember their fight against the Conservative Free Trade Agreements. I remember the fight against the Conservative GST. I remember the Red Book that was campaigned upon, even after Chretian left office. Why would I not believe a liberal promise?

[madmax]

Back to the Thread title.

Stephane Dion: How low can you go?

[TomS]

Why would I not believe Dion or any LPC member? I remember the campaign.... hard, very hard against Conservative Wage and Price Controls. I remember their fight against the Conservative Free Trade Agreements. I remember the fight against the Conservative GST. I remember the Red Book that was campaigned upon, even after Chretian left office. Why would I not believe a liberal promise?

What? I remember the Liberals were going to renegotiate Free Trade, instead signed it in to law six months after the election. I remember the Liberals were going to " scrap ", " kill", "abolish", the GST, instead nothing but a lie. The reason they could reuse the " Red Book ", was because they didn't fullfill any of the promises. Didn't the Liberals also abolish child poverty a few years ago.

[peter_puck]

.

On the contrary, the remarkable feature of this government is how it has avoided scandals and gaffes. When Harper moved into 24 Sussex, he (and most in his caucus) had never sat around a cabinet table.

There has been not a hint of dishonesty in any member of this government. By and large, Harper runs a tight ship.

We have the spending scandal where Elections Canada raided the Conservatives headquarters (somehow I think that is a subtle hint). We have the Cadman thing where a conservative candidate states the party tried to bribe her husband. We have a biker chick who secret NATO documents. The same biker chick was on the payroll of a company that bid for government contracts, forcing a high ranking civil servant to resign.

There was also a court case involving Allen Riddel, a former MP who said he was offered inducements to abandon his riding. Harper denied their was an agreement, but a court ruled their was an agreement and that the Conservative party would have to pay up. Shortly afterwards, the party and Harper settled a libel suit brought by the same individual.

While the Conservatives were clearly more scandal free than the last days of the Liberals statements like "There has not been a hint of dishonesty" and "has avoided scandals and gaffs" take things a little to far.

Power corrupts. NDP Liberal and Conservative governments, it doesn't matter. If you want to go around saying "they are more corrupt than we are", you will get yourself in the same mess the Liberals did. When they first took power, they were scandal free after the Mulroney years. Look where that arrogance got them.

As for the question of the thread, "underestimating Dion", I think people are. As far as I have seen, he is not much of a politician, but somehow, he defeated Rae and Ignatief. Both of those guys are evil smart and had the backing of the party, but somehow Dion beat them.

Edited August 26, 2008 by peter_puck

[capricorn]

It's getting more difficult to figure out Dion as each day goes by. Today he said:

"One thing is sure," said Dion. "The Parliament is working. The Parliament is not dysfunctional."

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/saskatchewan/stor...-saskatoon.html

What I read here is that Dion will head to the H of C fully prepared to let the Conservatives continue governing. Dion does not want an election in spite of telling us recently that Canadians are "hungry for an election". So which is it, Mr. Prime Minister-in-waiting? You know what Canadians want but you are not prepared to deliver? If he were elected PM would he listen to the wishes of the people or would he just disregard them as he is now?

[Fortunata]

It's not difficult to figure out Harper. He's so eager for an election he's peeing his pants in anticipation despite his conveniently forgotten "fixed election dates."

Dion, if he's smart, will let the HoC reconvene and bring down the government when it is right for him, not right for Harper. The country should see a little more of the Harper melt-down that will inevitably happen when thrown off script.

[Wild Bill]

It's not difficult to figure out Harper. He's so eager for an election he's peeing his pants in anticipation despite his conveniently forgotten "fixed election dates."

Dion, if he's smart, will let the HoC reconvene and bring down the government when it is right for him, not right for Harper. The country should see a little more of the Harper melt-down that will inevitably happen when thrown off script.

If Dion was ready for an election he wouldn't have voted with the government every time to prevent one.

The Liberals are not only broke but their riding system of campaigners and volunteers is in tatters in many parts of the country, especially Quebec. Every day he can delay is another day that they can pass the bucket at more meetings and raise a little more money.

Looks like Harper is not going to give him any more time. The Liberals can whine all they want about the unfairness of it all. Harper of course still remembers how the Liberals seized the opportunity to call elections when the Alliance party was barely formed and certainly not ready! Sauce for the goose...

This petty fighting doesn't mean beans to the average voter, of course. Only political junkies like ourselves even know it happens, let alone care.

This coming campaign will show the Liberals to the country like the Wizard of Oz when the curtain was pulled away.

This is all according to plan. Dion will lose because everyone knew the Liberals couldn't win the next election. Too much baggage from the Chretien/Martin days with all the scandals and the loss of support in Quebec. NEXT election is the important one! Dion will be gone and Rae or Iggy will have taken his place. Enough time will have gone by that no one will still be thinking about those nasty old scandals. Harper's team will be looking a bit old. Like all incumbents, the people will be taking their good deeds for granted and focusing on their bad ones. It's just human nature.

This fight is going to be a yawner! It's the NEXT one that might go into extra innings!

Edited August 26, 2008 by Wild Bill

[jdobbin]

What? I remember the Liberals were going to renegotiate Free Trade, instead signed it in to law six months after the election. I remember the Liberals were going to " scrap ", " kill", "abolish", the GST, instead nothing but a lie. The reason they could reuse the " Red Book ", was because they didn't fullfill any of the promises. Didn't the Liberals also abolish child poverty a few years ago.

Didn't Harper says elections dates were fixed?

[jdobbin]

If Dion was ready for an election he wouldn't have voted with the government every time to prevent one.

The Liberals are not only broke but their riding system of campaigners and volunteers is in tatters in many parts of the country, especially Quebec. Every day he can delay is another day that they can pass the bucket at more meetings and raise a little more money.

Looks like Harper is not going to give him any more time. The Liberals can whine all they want about the unfairness of it all. Harper of course still remembers how the Liberals seized the opportunity to call elections when the Alliance party was barely formed and certainly not ready! Sauce for the goose...

Credibility is important to voters. Many know when their pocketbook is affected. Income trusts is a huge credibility problem even to this day.

As for fixed election dates, it was a simple concept and Harper kept saying he was going to the end of the mandate unless defeated in a confidence vote.

[Wild Bill]

Credibility is important to voters. Many know when their pocketbook is affected. Income trusts is a huge credibility problem even to this day.

As for fixed election dates, it was a simple concept and Harper kept saying he was going to the end of the mandate unless defeated in a confidence vote.

Jdobbin, I would be very surprised if the average voter even knew about the fixed dates thing. Even more, you can point it out to him and again, I'd be surprised if he cared!

I think it important to remember that most Canadians are not hard core political junkies. WE are the minority!

[capricorn]

Dion, if he's smart, will let the HoC reconvene and bring down the government when it is right for him, not right for Harper.

The problem is there really won't be any "right" time for Dion to go into election even if as he says Canadians want an election. Many Liberal bloggers are admitting that Dion is the wrong leader for their party. Dion still hasn't paid off his leadership debt and the party is almost broke. The Liberals may have many supporters but they are not opening their wallets to help the party. When you consider that even Dobbin has consistently said the Conservatives will return with a minority, these are all signs that the stars are not aligning for a Dion win.

The country should see a little more of the Harper melt-down that will inevitably happen when thrown off script.

If anyone has a problem adhering to a script it is Dion. He gets to be more confusing (and confused) as time goes on. For example, I had never heard Dion refer to God in any public appearance and never expected to. Yet, I saw him in a one hour interview last week on the Michael Coren show and he referred to God at least twice in the first 10 minutes.

Last week, the leader of Her Majesty’s loyal opposition — Liberal chief Stéphane Dion — sat down with me for a one-hour interview on my TV program, The Michael Coren Show. Within the first 10 minutes of the discussion he made several mentions of God. These weren’t passing phrases or clumsy slang but obvious, absolute references to the entity so fashionably unfashionable in left-wing circles these days. You could have knocked me down with a Gospel tract!

He was, for example, anxious to “reconcile people with God’s environment” and was committed to the planet “given to us by God.” Which is somewhat surprising. The deity is not a popular debating point for Liberal leaders. Actually, the Supreme Being is mentioned by ambitious Liberal politicians about as often as Brian Mulroney’s good points. So I was rude enough to ask Mr. Dion if he was doing this — sounding religious — because he had been told that the station on which my show appears each night, CTS, was faith-based. Frankly, I expected him to deny, obfuscate or simply lie. It says a great deal about the man’s integrity as well as his innocence that he replied on air with a simple, “This is true.” A pause, then, “I have been told that this is important to the people who watch this show.”

----

Is this God of whom you speak an important factor in your life? “It is part of the hope I have” was the reply. “A creator who is full of love. I hope this is true. I am a man of hope. I will play hope but Stephen Harper plays fear.”

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/f...-finds-god.aspx

Did Dion use the name of God to pander to an audience or does he believe in God? I'm not sure and he didn't make it plain in the interview. He just shot some teasers. But what is plain is that when Harper says "God Bless Canada"...well...

When Stephen Harper won the last election and ended his victory speech with, “God Bless Canada,” there were many column inches devoted to how he was introducing American, un-Canadian and fundamentalist values into a country that is devoted to the separation of church and state — which, of course, is not a Canadian principle at all but is quintessentially American and is concerned with protecting Christians from government, not the other way around. Dion was not the Liberal leader at the time and such foolishness is not his fault. But surely God has not joined the Liberal Party of Canada.

The way things are going on now, I think all our politicians could use a little help from a higher power.

(edit to fix typos)

Edited August 26, 2008 by capricorn

[jdobbin]

Jdobbin, I would be very surprised if the average voter even knew about the fixed dates thing. Even more, you can point it out to him and again, I'd be surprised if he cared!

I think it important to remember that most Canadians are not hard core political junkies. WE are the minority!

That's why Dion will hit Harper where it hurts. On things like abortion. You don't have to be a political junkie to show what the difference are on that issue.

[jdobbin]

When you consider that even Dobbin has consistently said the Conservatives will return with a minority, these are all signs that the stars are not aligning for a Dion win.

I still think Harper will win a minority.

I do believe it will hurt his credibility if he calls an election before the byelections are completed. It does seem curious to void them, say Parliament is not working and not even call the House of Commons into session.

If Harper believes that Dion will cave on each piece if legislation, act like there is a majority and make changes that are transformative such as Senate reform. At worse, Harper gets his election, at best, he gets the law he wanted in the first place.

[capricorn]

That's why Dion will hit Harper where it hurts. On things like abortion. You don't have to be a political junkie to show what the difference are on that issue.

The Conservatives are on record and consistently said that there won't be a debate on abortion. I think the majority of Canadians are aware of this. If Dion pushes the issue too hard either during the leaders' debates or on the hustings, voters may get ticked off at him for not sticking to bread and butter issues, the economy and the environment.

[capricorn]

I still think Harper will win a minority.

And for all the reasons you have mentioned here and there, this would probably be the best outcome for the Liberals. Then a true Liberal Party reformation can take place.

[jdobbin]

The Conservatives are on record and consistently said that there won't be a debate on abortion. I think the majority of Canadians are aware of this. If Dion pushes the issue too hard either during the leaders' debates or on the hustings, voters may get ticked off at him for not sticking to bread and butter issues, the economy and the environment.

The Tories keep saying there won't be a debate prior to an election. There certainly won't be one while they have a minority. However, they were letting that private member's bill roll right along until this week that was a pretty strong indication that was going to raise the criminality of abortion.

Abortion is a bread and butter issue. It is going to take more than Harper saying he won't re-open the debate on abortion. He will have to give a definitive answer that he won't fritter away at the fringes like he has with the death penalty.

[Fortunata]

The way things are going on now, I think all our politicians could use a little help from a higher power.

This we can agree on.

[jdobbin]

And for all the reasons you have mentioned here and there, this would probably be the best outcome for the Liberals. Then a true Liberal Party reformation can take place.

I don't know that any leader would have made that big a difference at this point.

[Stephen Best]

The Liberals are not only broke but their riding system of campaigners and volunteers is in tatters in many parts of the country, especially Quebec. Every day he can delay is another day that they can pass the bucket at more meetings and raise a little more money.

Money will not be a problem in the election for any of the major parties. The reason is spending limits, public finance, and campaign expense rebates. At least three of the major parties--Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP--will spend the limit.

As for the riding system, the Liberals have consistently shown a capacity to rally during elections.

The election campaign field will be a level one.

Unless of course, the Conservatives repeat their illegal In/Out scheme. Which--if they think it's so legal--they'll no doubt do it again.

[Wild Bill]

Money will not be a problem in the election for any of the major parties. The reason is spending limits, public finance, and campaign expense rebates. At least three of the major parties--Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP--will spend the limit.

As for the riding system, the Liberals have consistently shown a capacity to rally during elections.

The election campaign field will be a level one.

Unless of course, the Conservatives repeat their illegal In/Out scheme. Which--if they think it's so legal--they'll no doubt do it again.

Well, we shall see! The proof is in the pudding, as they say.

Again, it will be great fun to bump each other's posts to the fore AFTER the election!

[Stephen Best]

Again, it will be great fun to bump each other's posts to the fore AFTER the election!

Looking forward to it. For the record, what exactly are you predicting?

My prediction is a Liberal minority or majority government. And let me go further. If it's a majority Liberal government, Harper will resign as leader of the Conservatives. Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe will offer resignations as well.

What's your prediction, Wild Bill?

[August1991]

Looking forward to it. For the record, what exactly are you predicting?

My prediction is a Liberal minority or majority government. And let me go further. If it's a majority Liberal government, Harper will resign as leader of the Conservatives. Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe will offer resignations as well.

What's your prediction, Wild Bill?

Best, I think you're letting your own political biases/preferences influence your prediction.

I don't see how either the Tories or the Liberals could form a majority government unless something dramatic happened during the campaign. Duceppe will likely resign after the next election but I don't see why anyone else will.

[Wild Bill]

Looking forward to it. For the record, what exactly are you predicting?

My prediction is a Liberal minority or majority government. And let me go further. If it's a majority Liberal government, Harper will resign as leader of the Conservatives. Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe will offer resignations as well.

What's your prediction, Wild Bill?

Oh dear! I don't like making predictions when there's so much confusion. I'm a techie. When I predict which part is likely bad it's only after putting a meter through the amp.

However, if you're gonna push me I will say that I have some impressions that if true will affect the outcome.

I don't think Dion is gonna do very well at all, for a number of reasons! First off, I don't think the real power in his party wants to help him! They want him gone in favour of a much more attractive leader like Rae or Iggy. Those guys will fake it good for the cameras but they don't really want to see Dion keep driving the team. They want the reins for themselves.

Also, where is the growth for the Liberals? Not out west! You can forget anything significant there. The Liberals burned their bridges out West long ago and have done little or nothing since to patch things up. Dion's NewGST makes it worse! To the westerners it just looks like NEP II. I'm betting the back room boys threw their hands up in the air in frustration when Dion brought that one out!

Quebec? Nope! Dion keeps scrounging to find a new Quebec organizer man. He keeps having to fire them and nobody wants the job. Quebec is crucial for a Liberal win. They always got a good chunk of their seats from this province. They OWNED the federalist vote! Not anymore. They have a few safe seats but the smell of Adscam is stronger in Quebec than anywhere else in Canada. The scam was in their province and Quebecers were very embarrassed by that fact. They haven't forgotten. The Tories picked up seats last time against all the predictions of the talking heads. They look like a good alternative for any federalist who can't stomach voting Liberal again. The Tories are hardly going to decimate the BQ seats but I'd be surprised if the Liberals made any major gains.

There's some anti-Tory sentiment in Newfoundland but so what? Only a handful of seats. And Danny Williams might be disappointed about a couple of them. The Tories have a lot of history down home. Newfoundlanders tend not to be followers, as well. And in Nova Scotia, PEI and New Brunswick there is not only a lot of Tory history but a habit of voting for the winners. They need those regional disparity grants to keep coming so they can feed their kids.

Besides, if they'd vote for a Conservative like Elsie Wayne there must REALLY be a lot of Tory love out there!

That leaves Ontario. Harper's team has made some serious gaffes here. Jim Prentice seemed more worried about bashing Dalton McGuinty than making his own party look like a better choice for Ontarioans in the process of losing their jobs. Still, Dion has made some worse gaffes. His carbon tax scares the willies out of people who depend on smelly manufacturing plants for their livelihood! Dion can promise rebates next April but many folks here are wondering how to keep their house till then! Dion also has no history behind him when he promises to be "revenue neutral". Even if he's totally accurate it's still an almost impossible hard sell to a populace who have spent their entire lives hearing broken political promises. Why should they now suddenly trust Dion? His charisma?

Harper has hardly been inspiring as well and that's why at first I haven't felt there would be a huge change in the seat count. However, the more I think about it the more it seems that its Dion who can more easily LOSE seats! Harper will snap a lot of them up by default. The NDP might very well look like a good alternative for a traditional Liberal voter who isn't inspired by Dion. Even the Greens might finally gain a seat or two. Certainly these last two parties could split enough votes in some Ontario ridings to allow the Tory candidate to come up the middle.

Okay, I'll stop fudging around! I predict that Harper will gain seats. I just can't get a handle yet on how many. I don't believe that the "scary scary" talk from the Liberals about crazed redneck abortion/gay hating conservatives from Liberals works anymore. Canadians seem to feel Tories aren't anymore scary than the Liberals. More boring maybe but not more scary. So there's not likely to be much of an Anti-Tory trend.

That being said, Dion needs a Pro-Liberal trend to keep what he's got, let alone make gains. I just don't see this sort of trend happening anywhere.

Still, the writ hasn't even dropped yet. Afterwards when Canadians wake up and pay attention we might all see some surprises.

[Stephen Best]

Best, I think you're letting your own political biases/preferences influence your prediction.

I don't see how either the Tories or the Liberals could form a majority government unless something dramatic happened during the campaign. Duceppe will likely resign after the next election but I don't see why anyone else will.

There's no question that I'm influenced by my biases. In fact, I've never met a person whose biases didn't influence their judgment.

For the Liberals, nothing very dramatic needs to happen. All they need is a few percentage point shifts in the votes in traditional Liberal leaning electoral districts in Ontario and Quebec to put them over the top. It's the Conservatives who have high hurdles to overcome. And, where it matters most, Ontario and Quebec, they're not making the necessary gains. In fact, their recent "political base pandering" pronouncements about doctors, arts funding, etc. diminishes their hopes in those areas, in my view.

[Stephen Best]

Okay, I'll stop fudging around! I predict that Harper will gain seats. I just can't get a handle yet on how many. Afterwards when Canadians wake up and pay attention we might all see some surprises.

Won't we look silly if Jack Layton forms a majority (i.e. Bob Rae in Ontario) and Elizabeth May takes up residence at Stornaway.