U.S. Economic News

[Moonbox]

So if I can find someone that's worth more than $100 million that disagrees with this clown, does that mean I win the debate? ?

I'll even find someone whose former customers aren't suing him for fraud!

Edited January 30, 2023 by Moonbox

[sharkman]

5 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

So if I can find someone that's worth more than $100 million that disagrees with this clown, does that mean I win the debate? ?

I'll even find someone whose former customers aren't suing him for fraud!

I'm sorry Moonbox, you're not getting it.  You're fired.  It would be best not to make a scene, but security is standing outside my office.  You get the idea, it just didn't work out.  I've got a cousin who owns a Burger King, I could put in a good word...

[sharkman]

On 1/29/2023 at 9:21 AM, sharkman said:

Ever hear of Robert Kiyosaki?  A very wealthy individual who is warning about the coming recession.

 

So anyway, you’ve got Robert Kiyosaki, Michael Burry and Jeremy Grantham all singing from the same songbook about this upcoming economic event.

Would you be surprised to hear that Warren Buffet feels the same way?

 

 

 

[Moonbox]

9 hours ago, sharkman said:

So anyway, you’ve got Robert Kiyosaki, Michael Burry and Jeremy Grantham all singing from the same songbook about this upcoming economic event.

Would you be surprised to hear that Warren Buffet feels the same way?

 

 

 

Are you sure about that?  I'm pretty sure you didn't even watch this video.  At no point in the 10 minute run time did he say  "The Crash will be WORSE Than 1929..."  or anything that can even be likened to that.  He talked about being born in the Great Depression, and its effect on the American psyche.  

The only concrete prediction/advice he offered was to "never bet against America. 

 

 

[sharkman]

On second thought, scratch Buffett.  I didn’t watch all of the video until now.  I also watched others and have now googled his comments.

He seems to be trying to take a middle of the road approach.  Not dire, not blissful.  

[Moonbox]

Warren Buffet is about as boring and level-headed an investor as they come - and consequently the most successful professional investor probably ever. 

He always says the next crash is around the corner, and he builds the BH portfolio to be resilient against it. 

Back to the video, this is the problem I've had with your arguments from the start.  You just posted a video that you didn't even watch and made your conclusion from the video's headline.  It paints a picture of how you do your research, because you weren't asking "what does Warren Buffet predict for the economy?" or anything like that.  You were searching for doomer news and the troll farms are more than happy to deliver ALL CAPS HEADLINES for you, correctly assuming your filter was turned off.  

[sharkman]

Then your issue with me is based on your own misrepresentations.  I did watch the Buffett video, before posting it, just not all of it.  I was mistaken and admitted it.  Then I went through several other videos with him as the subject, and googled him.

I realized he is more cagey about what he publicly says, and that’s fine.  The other people I linked to are all preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.  
Do what you think best.

[Moonbox]

10 minutes ago, sharkman said:

Then your issue with me is based on your own misrepresentations.  I did watch the Buffett video, before posting it, just not all of it.  I was mistaken and admitted it.  Then I went through several other videos with him as the subject, and googled him.

I didn't misrepresent anything.  You misrepresented the video you linked.  To admit that was a mistake is good, but it's not the first time I've pointed these sorts of errors.  Each time this happens, it's because you didn't actually read or watch your own linked source.  Whether you only watched part of it or none is irrelevant.  The only thing that matters is that you didn't watch/read enough to know what information/comments/opinions were included in your links.  You took the hot-take headline/title/caption, assumed that it matched the contents, and then shared it.  

This is how misinformation gets spread.  

 

[sharkman]

21 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

I didn't misrepresent anything.  You misrepresented the video you linked.  To admit that was a mistake is good, but it's not the first time I've pointed these sorts of errors.  Each time this happens, it's because you didn't actually read or watch your own linked source.  Whether you only watched part of it or none is irrelevant.  The only thing that matters is that you didn't watch/read enough to know what information/comments/opinions were included in your links.  You took the hot-take headline/title/caption, assumed that it matched the contents, and then shared it.  

This is how misinformation gets spread.  

 

Look.  You just said I didn’t watch the Buffett video.  That is a misrepresentation of what I said, and what I did.  
 

I’m quite happy to disappoint you on the other points, because what it boils down to is you disagree with me based on politics.  You look for nonsense such as this to whine about, while being quite useless in terms of actually providing any content of your own outside of your responses/whines to me.

Your too busy with your day job(probably clerical) to post your own info?  BS.

 

[Moonbox]

11 minutes ago, sharkman said:

Look.  You just said I didn’t watch the Buffett video.  That is a misrepresentation of what I said, and what I did.  

You didn't watch the video.  If you had, you'd have had a notion of what he was talking about, and you didn't.  Saying you "watched the video" is the same as saying "you read a book" because you read the front cover.  You didn't read the book.  You just read the front cover.  

Edited February 3, 2023 by Moonbox

[sharkman]

On 2/2/2023 at 9:12 AM, sharkman said:

On second thought, scratch Buffett.  I didn’t watch all of the video until now.  I also watched others and have now googled his comments.

He seems to be trying to take a middle of the road approach.  Not dire, not blissful.  

 

[sharkman]

Here’s another video with Robert Kiyosaki, warning about this recession.  This one’s just for moonbox.

 

 

 

[Moonbox]

Within the first minute of this video, he says he borrowed $300M in 2011 to buy real-estate.  

Fast forward to today, and his net worth is reported to be ~$100M (because he's not actually a billionaire like he says).  Considering where real estate prices are today compared to 2011, this should be where a reasonable critical thinker would realize that Robert Kiyosaki is a bullshit artist.  

Considering he was telling everyone in 2007 to invest in real estate, I don't know why anyone would listen to him.  

 

[sharkman]

I thought you’d like that one.  Let’s see, you’re ‘too busy with work’ to actually post your own content and data points, etc, but you’ll watch my videos posted to try to find something to whine about.

Yeah, you’re ‘busy’ alright…

[Moonbox]

I've already tried posting my own data.  Your answer was "MSM something something government-friendly statistics".  When you're circuit trips and you revert to that tired old rag of an argument, you make it clear that you're not actually interested in a reality-based discussion.  That's why you've stumbled into quoting multi-level marketing scam artists like Kiyosaki.  ?

 

[sharkman]

11 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

I've already tried posting my own data.  Your answer was "MSM something something government-friendly statistics".  When you're circuit trips and you revert to that tired old rag of an argument, you make it clear that you're not actually interested in a reality-based discussion.  That's why you've stumbled into quoting multi-level marketing scam artists like Kiyosaki.  ?

 

Sorry but this is just more huey. You need to also explain away Michael Burry(his last tweet from last week, was, “sell.”).  And Jeremy Grantham.  There are more, but let’s start there, because you’re such a busy guy.

[Moonbox]

We'd have to ask Michael Burry.  A one-word tweet isn't informative.  If I were to guess, I'd suspect he doesn't have much faith in January's stock market rally.  He may be right on that, as we're (probably?) headed for some sort of recession in 2023, but why don't you tell us what you think it means? ?

As for Jeremy Grantham, I suspect again that you don't actually know how he feels or what he's thinking, and he's almost always a bear (at least in public).  

Meanwhile, leaders of bigger and better firms than his are predicting 2023 ends up better than 2022, Goldman Sachs among them.  

How do you feel about the January 30th job numbers, by the way?  You were eagerly anticipating those numbers, as I recall.  ?

 

[sharkman]

…such a busy guy…

[sharkman]

Here’s a warning and a tip on the coming correction:

 

[sharkman]

And for the bonus round, some Peter Schiff:

 

 

[sharkman]

So in this amazing jobs market, on top of the previous tech lay offs I’ve documented of over 100,000, now Disney has released their job cuts.   5.5 billion in cost cutting as they restructure, and 7,000 jobs cut. 

I am baffled as to how in the midst of a ‘booming’ job market of 520,000 net new hires(for January), at the same time Tech, Parcel delivery and Theme park/tourism sectors can suffer such job losses.  

If ever the economy has seemed to be going in two different directions at once, now is that time.  I would suggest caution for any large expenditures unless you are really sure or are in dire need.  Putting things off for a few months to see what develops would not be a bad idea.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-to-lay-off-7000-workers-cut-55-billion-worth-of-costs-in-latest-reshuffle-220217075.html

 

[Moonbox]

On 2/8/2023 at 9:11 PM, sharkman said:

If ever the economy has seemed to be going in two different directions at once, now is that time.  I would suggest caution for any large expenditures unless you are really sure or are in dire need.  Putting things off for a few months to see what develops would not be a bad idea.

Yes.  That's what a lot of people are doing, and I agree it would be wise.  

[sharkman]

So in the last day, both Yahoo and Microsoft have announced layoffs.  Yahoo says 20% will be gone.   Microsoft is implementing the layoffs previously announced.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/02/09/tech/yahoo-layoffs/index.html

 

[sharkman]

Larry Summers, the former US Secretary of the Treasury, recently stated that the US economy is at risk for a coyote moment.  That’s the moment in the old(very old) cartoon in which Wile E. Coyote is chasing the road runner, and falls off a cliff.  The moment is when he looks down and realizes that there is nothing under his feet.  Then he suddenly drops like a rock.

I have been warning for the better part of a year that we are at risk of a major correction.  It looks increasingly like it could be much worse than the mild correction we are hoping for.

 

https://fortune.com/2023/02/09/larry-summers-economic-outlook-coulwiley-coyote-momeny-layoffs-recession-inflation/amp/

[sharkman]

Bank of America strategists are warning of a big drop in the S&P 500 by March.   “Fed tightening always breaks something”
 

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/fed-tightening-always-breaks-something-s-p-500-will-drop-to-3-800-by-march-warn-bank-of-america-strategists-e86be31e

“Hopes for a “soft landing”, that would see U.S. economic growth slow gently without tipping into a recession as borrowing costs rise, have faded recently following stronger-than-expected economic data. A “hard landing” where the economy does fall into a recession is not likely either and as a result the talk has been about a “no landing” outlook in which the economy keeps growing even as central banks keep raising interest rates.”