Feb 13 2004 Poll Results Here

[maplesyrup]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2052

39% Liberal (down 9 from 48

24% CPC (up 5 from 19)

18% NDP (up 2 from 16)

10% BQ (unchanged)

05% Green (up 1 from 4)

The Liberals have suffered most in British Columbia (27%, down 15 points from 42%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (33%, down 13 points from 46%). Ontario has also seen a substantial drop in Liberal support (47%, down 10 points from 57%), as has Alberta (28%, down 7 points from 35%) and Quebec (40%, down 5 points from 45%). But voter support is more stable in and Atlantic Canada (42%, down 1 point from 43%).

Conservative support has risen most in British Columbia (35%, up 15 points from 20%), trailed by Ontario (25%, up 7 points from 18%), Alberta (50%, up 3 points from 47%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (23%, up 3 points from 20%), and Quebec (5%, up 2 points from 3%). Conservative support has actually dropped in Atlantic Canada (33%, down 4 points from 37%).

The NDP has gained most in Saskatchewan (33%, up 9 points from 24%), followed by Ontario (22%, up 5 points from 17%), Alberta (16%, up 3 points from 13%), Quebec (8%, up 2 points from 6%), and Atlantic Canada (19%, up 2 points from 17%). NDP support has actually gone down in British Columbia (22%, down 5 points from 27%).

[maplesyrup]

Feb 13 2004 Ipsos-Reid Opinion Poll Results

Canada

Bloc 10%

CPC 24%

Lib 39%

NDP 18%

BC

CPC 35%

Lib 27%

NDP 22%

AB

CPC 50%

Lib 28%

NDP 16%

SK/MA

CPC 23%

Lib 33%

NDP 33%

ON

CPC 25%

Lib 47%

NDP 22%

QC

Bloc 39%

CPc 5%

Lib 40%

NDP 8%

AC

CPC 33%

Lib 42%

NDP 19%

[Goldie]

These numbers resemble the 2000 election results, how very sad. My hope is the CBC will jump on the NDP bandwagon. It doesn't look like it as they are already talking about how Paul Martin is showing real leadership. What the hell will it take?

So after the latest Liberal robbery Canadians would give them more support than 2000. What a bunch of sheep we are. I can't even formulate into words the complete disdain I have for anyone that said they would still support the Liberals.

Ah, but I shouldn't be surprised because we Canadians enjoy monopolies, whether political or corporate. Wait a second, we don't like rich people and being held hostage for ransom due to lack competition. If this happened with Telus or Bell and the CFO had just became CEO Canadians would sure as hell punish thses guys in the stock market.

[Michael Hardner]

how very sad.

Don't be so glum. A drop of 9 points from 48 is actually an 18.75% drop. This means that nearly 1 in 5 voters have changed their vote from Liberal in the space of the last week or so.

I would bet that many people haven't even heard of the scandal yet. But the drop might cause an "echo" that causes others to pay attention.

And 25% for the CPC in Ontario ?!? That is a solid number.

This may even cause the election to be delayed.

[maplesyrup]

Let's take a bit of a look back in recent history and see if we can determine any trends with these Ipsos-Reid poll percentages (I've taken this data off another website, I trust it's accurate):

Apr 27/03

Bloc 9

CPC* 18

Lib 50

NDP 10

June 6/03

Bloc 9

CPC* 29

Lib 45

NDP 11

Oct 6/03

Bloc 9

CPC* 27

Lib 47

NDP 12

Dec 6/03

Bloc 9

CPC* 24

Lib 43

NDP 15

Dec 14/03

Bloc 9

CPC 21

Lib 48

NDP 14

Jan 24/04

Bloc 10

CPC 19

Lib 48

NDP 16

Feb 13/04

Bloc 10

CPC 24

Lib 39

NDP 18

*Denotes combined All & PC

That 9% drop in supportfor the Liberals in the past 3 weeks is unusually large. I think we will need another poll or two to confirm whether it is going to stay or not.

One thing I've noticed is that the Bloc and the Liberals are almost tied in Quebec. Liberals have several seats that are predominately anglophone and they usually win these seats by big majorities, therefore this would seem to indicate that the Bloc are going to pick up the majority of the seats in Quebec. Interesting turn of events.

Another thing these stats show is the NDP going from 10% to 18% support. That's an 80 % increase in support in approximately 10 months.

Jack Layton has said he would like to go into the election with 20% support - the NDP are almost there.

Now a difficult part of the analysis is where is each party's strength is. Is it rural or city core, or suburban. I think the NDP strenth is usually in the city core. If the NDP vote is concentrated maybe they will pick up more seats than if their support was scattered.

Are we going to have three parties in serious contention for a large number of seats?

Who do you expect to be the official opposition?

What about CPC?

Will all CPC supporters coalesce around the winner no matter who that is?

If Harper wins what will the red Tories do?

[Pellaken]

a total of 35 points movement in BC (15 lib, 15 con, 5 ndp)

this next election will be fought in BC

[maplesyrup]

Results of Compas Poll released today

CPC 26%

Lib 44%

NDP 19%

[Pellaken]

the CPC is dancing around 25%

the NDP has been gonig stedely up since the 2000 election.

8% to 19% in 3.5 years?

I'd say thats quite a feat.

the CPC is at 24%, which is double what the PC party got in 2000, but still less then the Alliance

[Slavik44]

I find this dispicable.....

look at the democratic nomination...all it took was dean to have a scream and he drops out of the picture...he screamed..its not liek he stole 250,000,000 from the democratic party.

Inthe past polls Bush has dropped what 8 points? just becuase peopel have started to realize his info was not upfront..and that has been goign around for a while.

The liberals on the other hand, steal 250,000 million dollars. from my understanding there was also some shady invovlemnt wiht the federal liberal party membership in the whole B.C thing as well. But what happens tot he liberals clearly this is worse then "I have a scream, clearly it is worse then realizing that your president is not God, but what do the polls show, in reality nothing has changed, jsut a regular fluctiation between pools, plus a bit. It is depressing that Caandians as a whole cannot say that is wrong that shoudl be punished...you think 10 less seats in parliment is a punishment...now thats a reward...its jsut like our criminal justice system..oh you killed soemone...well how about you go on parole for 2 years. total trash...anyone ever wonder why the liberals can do this...it is becuase we do not hold them acountable for there actions...the only criminals here are canadians who are so dense...that they love the guy that robs there house.

[maplesyrup]

Dean was a bit too radical for the establishment so was done in.

Dont worry Democrats worst nightmare Nader is coming and he will fix things

[Pellaken]

recent poll:

Lib-35

Con-27

NDP-17

the NDP seems to have hit a celing of sorts

I say that martin calls the election today.

[westcoast99]

Ekos -- Feb 28-04

Lib: 42%

CPC: 32%

NDP: 15%

[maplesyrup]

This must be almost unprecedented to see polls jump around so muchin such a short period of time.

Quebec polls which came out yesterday showed:

Bloc at 48% up 15%

Libs at 32% down 19%

This is a liberal base - my goodness

And now the NDP have 10% in Quebec - will that translate into seats there for them?

This might be a tough decision for PM martin, deciding when to call the election, that is.

In spite of all these conflicting signaLS however, I expect we will be going to the polls sooner, rather than later.

Don't forget Martin is much more popular than his party.

And election campaigns revolve around primarily the leaders.

And what about that Toronto Star poll out today showing Belinda's popularity with Canadian voters.

Exciting times we live in for political pundits.