By-Elections

[madmax]

For Convienence I am going by party names vs Candidate Names.

[madmax]

For Convienence I am going by party names vs Candidate Names.

I don't think anyone wants an election. The Bi Elections are on, and no one seems to be in election mood.

[madmax]

Guelph looked to be a riding where the CPC could make inroads. In a By-Election, local issues matter and the Candidates even more. So here is what just came in, and it isn't good for the CPC candidate. Good thing people are leaving for the long weekend.

You don't want miss an opportunity to like this to look strong, and it appears she fumbled badly.

http://news.guelphmercury.com/News/article/362654

But when asked whether part of the money should come from the federal wallet, Kovach wrote the funding issue "is not a local issue" and directed the inquiry to the prime minister's press office.

Sorry, what?

By shrugging the question off to Harperville, Kovach simultaneously showed a lack of knowledge -- or, perhaps worse, acknowledgement -- that Steven Truscott and what happens to him is very much an issue to those she hopes to represent, and hinted at what kind of independent thinking she would bring to the office on Cork Street.

Meanwhile, it looks like the Liberal Stronghold of Westmount is off to a rocky start with regards to getting their campaign up and running. Astronaut Marc Garneau apparently has no literature and when some Liberal Volunteers who were in Guelph raised the issue on a blog, it was sensored and changed. But once again, it looks like Liberal Arrogance or Incompetence is in charge in Quebec. Haven't figured that out yet?

St. Lambert, haven't heard much yet.

Still a long way to go.

[madmax]

This could go into the Green SHift Debate, or into the By Elections.

Mr. Layton said Tom King, the Dipper candidate in the upcoming Guelph byelection, may have summed up the plan best.

"This revenue-neutral scheme reminds me of a man and a horse," Mr. Layton recounted. "The man is feeding hay to the horse, and then he goes around to the other end to see if he gets the same amount out."

I didn't know politicians talked like this anymore in Ontario. Certainly not those scripted answers you get from a Candidate.

Regardless, it appears that this is a multi party race with the LPC candidate laying low and hoping his name carries him within the community.

Long ways to the end, but I believe the CPC candidate will get past her mistake with regards to sticking to script and downplaying the Truscott question.

As of now, more people think ST. Lambert is up for grabs, then previous results might indicate.

And Westmount looks to be a Liberal Lock even in previous results and our own straw poll.

Just another bump to the thread until election day.

[madmax]

Canvassing with a reporter is always a worry for a Candidate. Knocking on a strangers door and looking for a discussion or simply to say hello and drop of literature can lead to unexpected and sometimes very difficult engagements. That is why many events with the press are "stage managed". Even stage managed events can lead to undesired results. Particularly if you haven't been forthcoming with your appointed writer.

Here is an article from Guelph. Not good for the CPC candidate who with over a decade of experience and high profile has been floundering since the start of the campaign.

http://news.guelphmercury.com/News/article/364027

For an article in the July 28 Mercury, I arranged to tag along with Kovach as she went door-to-door canvassing. She's very good at it -- energetic, outgoing and plain spoken. And on the day I was with her, the people who opened their doors were receptive and welcoming, almost unbelievably so.

The street she canvassed that afternoon was Skov Crescent, a short drive in the rain from her campaign office. As we pulled onto the street, Kovach said it was a good time to stop because the sun had come out. It seemed impromptu and random.

At one of the first doors, a man remarked that he knows her parents. Later, another man told me he thinks her brother lived in the area.

When we arrived at one house along the route, Kovach wouldn't go to the door. Asked why, at first she wouldn't say.

After a moment, she pointed out a no-smoking sign in the window and said she didn't want to bother the people inside and that being a nurse, she knows things about some people in the community. I took it to mean someone inside, perhaps a patient from her professional life, has a smoking-related illness. I accepted the explanation and we moved on.

I did wonder how close her family lived. I thought Kovach might have chosen that area for canvassing because she knew the residents would be more friendly toward her, giving the young reporter alongside her some positive receptions to write about.

Since it's a reporter's job to challenge even the possibility of such public relations spin, I decided look into it.

Her parents have owned a house on Skov Crescent since 1992; Kovach started our canvassing trip only a few doors down from their home. She never mentioned it.

It turns out the house she passed -- the one with the no-smoking sign -- also belongs to relatives.

I returned to Skov Crescent two days later, on my day off, and found people outside the no-smoking house. I asked them if they were related to Kovach, and they said they were.

can't say why Kovach chose that street to canvass. Her campaign team said it happened to be next on her list.

Later, Kovach said in essence that she didn't have a reason for campaigning there.

"We just grabbed a poll," she said, referring to the notes her campaign has on an area to canvass.

"The sun was shining over in that section versus the pouring rain when we left the office. We didn't know that you were coming canvassing, so we just did that. I don't even know why (the campaign aide) drove there."

It's strange she didn't know I was coming, since it was by appointment.

I know now that she passed by the house for a good reason; one of her relatives who lives there isn't in good health. Suggesting to me that she only knew that because she is a nurse seems misleading, but understandable.

What I don't understand is why she failed to mention we were campaigning in her family's neighbourhood, or why she didn't simply choose another street.

It's never the action, it is the white lie/denial that gets politicians in trouble.

[madmax]

Here is an article on the Westmount By Election.

This appears to support that there is a strong LPC vote in the riding.

http://thesuburban.com/content.jsp?sid=139...mp;cnid=1016087

some highlights

Barry Corber, the well-known manager of Nicholas Hoare’s well-stocked music department, said “It’s going to be a choice between the Liberals and the NDP,” he said. “I’ll probably vote Liberal because even if everybody’s talking green, Dion seems to be the only guy who actually plans to do something about it.”

John Mavridis, walking up Greene Avenue with daughters Marina and Chloe, said the riding’s new MP would have to provide the kind of local leadership which he believes has been missing for a long time.

“This is a good riding,” he said, “and it needs good representation.”

While he said he would be voting Liberal, he also had kind words for Lagacé Dowson, the NDP’s candidate.

“She’s a good woman and I respect what she’s doing,” he said. “But I still prefer the Liberals over the NDP.”

Richard St. Denis said he will be voting for Conservative candidate Guy Dufort.

“Families are the big issue in this election,” he said, “followed by crime and the environment. Harper is a family man, he’s hard on criminals, he wants to do something for the environment and that’s good enough for me.”

It’s also good enough for Bruno ‘Everyone knows me’ Goldwax and his friend Eddy Gural.

“Harper keeps his promises,” said Bruno. “He always comes through with what he promised and that’s always good enough for me.”

Gural agreed with Bruno but he also added his own reasons as to why he wasn’t going to vote Liberal.

“Dion just pisses me off,” he said. “That man always says the wrong thing at the wrong time.”

[madmax]

For the Quiet CPC supporters lurking and not voting in this poll, THis links for you

http://news.guelphmercury.com/News/article/364622

RYAN PFEIFFER, GUELPH MERCURY

• Knock, knock

..Who's there? Peter MacKay in Guelph to canvass with Conservative candidate Gloria Kovach; BRINGING IN THE BIG GUNS

While taking a coffee break at a Tim Hortons on Victoria Road, MacKay said he found the Canadian military involvement in Afghanistan was on the minds of many voters in the city. MacKay made a major military spending announcement in Montreal earlier in the day -- an investment of $292 million to buy six used CH-47D Chinook helicopters to move troops and equipment in Afghanistan, and a further $109 million on two separate leases of unmanned surveillance aircraft, also to aid in the Afghanistan effort, The Canadian Press reported.

Edited August 8, 2008 by madmax

[capricorn]

I voted the Liberals will win St. Lambert and Westmount, and the CPC Guelph. I think the results for Liberals and CPC will be very close in all these by-elections. If I am right, the Liberals will be very gung ho about a general election and they will be lulled into a false sense of security. In such a scenario there is a danger they will repeat mistakes made in Outremont. The two Liberal wins would cause the CPC to work harder on its election platform and campaign.

[jdobbin]

I voted the Liberals will win St. Lambert and Westmount, and the CPC Guelph. I think the results for Liberals and CPC will be very close in all these by-elections. If I am right, the Liberals will be very gung ho about a general election and they will be lulled into a false sense of security. In such a scenario there is a danger they will repeat mistakes made in Outremont. The two Liberal wins would cause the CPC to work harder on its election platform and campaign.

I don't think the Liberals will win in St. Lambert. I think they will win in Westmount. I don't know about Guelph. I think some people are still upset with the Liberal candidate that was selected.

Edited August 11, 2008 by jdobbin

[madmax]

Did a tour around Guelph.

The people are not paying attention to the By Election. There is a very strong LPC prescence. The CPC are known to be strong, but the signs I saw, other then a couple were on Public property. I know the candidate is a city councillor doubling up at the trough, so she should have a solid base in her ward. Guess, I didn't ride through that area.

[jdobbin]

Did a tour around Guelph.

The people are not paying attention to the By Election. There is a very strong LPC prescence. The CPC are known to be strong, but the signs I saw, other then a couple were on Public property. I know the candidate is a city councillor doubling up at the trough, so she should have a solid base in her ward. Guess, I didn't ride through that area.

Was there any anger about the Conservative candidate who left to let the city councillor run? I just don't enough about the area to find out.

[madmax]

Was there any anger about the Conservative candidate who left to let the city councillor run? I just don't enough about the area to find out.

If there is, it would be amongst the riding association. However, her being a city councillor of many years, I am sure she has an organizing team, and certainly the CPC is putting the effort in the riding. I don't think the public cares one way or the other unless they were "friends" of the turfed candidate, or people who wouldn't vote CPC and thus are mocking the party for pleasure.

[White Doors]

Canvassing with a reporter is always a worry for a Candidate. Knocking on a strangers door and looking for a discussion or simply to say hello and drop of literature can lead to unexpected and sometimes very difficult engagements. That is why many events with the press are "stage managed". Even stage managed events can lead to undesired results. Particularly if you haven't been forthcoming with your appointed writer.

Here is an article from Guelph. Not good for the CPC candidate who with over a decade of experience and high profile has been floundering since the start of the campaign.

http://news.guelphmercury.com/News/article/364027

It's never the action, it is the white lie/denial that gets politicians in trouble.

Sure sounds like the local paper has a hate-on for her.

[madmax]

Sure sounds like the local paper has a hate-on for her.

She is a long term city councillor with a track record within the community. She has lots of political experience, and her error was to mislead a reporter into believing they hit a "random" street, that just happened to be full of relatives, her mother, father, friends and other family members. You go to a street and meet your family, you tell the reporter, hey, this is my brother, mother, father, cousin, uncle, and move on to the next house.

The local paper does not have a "hate on" for her. She shouldn't be so politically stupid for someone with years of experience behind her.

She also messed up on a softball question, that every other candidate could hit a home run with.

There would have been no problem if Kovach would have told the truth and then not fabricate a story.

Remember Chretian with the "I talk to poor people" schtick.

It won't change the election results, it just lets people know that she isn't a straight shooter.

PS. Thanks for voting

Edited August 12, 2008 by madmax

[madmax]

Campaign Managers Letter to the Editor is not a helpful defence.

Guelph

would like to take this opportunity to clear up a few misperceptions. The letter writer notes that one of our flyers does not list the qualifications or beliefs of Guelph federal Conservative candidate Gloria Kovach.

Leaving aside for the moment that she has far too many qualifications to print on a single-sheet flyer, I would like to direct the writer to her website at www.gloriakovach. He will find a great deal more in-depth information there. If his questions are not answered, it is a simple matter to e-mail her at [email protected], or to call the office at 519-830-8683, both of which are listed on the front page of the website.

Gloria will be happy to answer any questions, and she's one of the most approachable people I've ever met.

It is our opinion that people who are interested in the issues will take the time to use these tools to familiarize themselves with the issues and the candidate. Our flyers are meant to arouse that sort of interest.

When I receive a flyer from the grocery store, it doesn't list the nutritional content for oranges.

Finally, if the letter writer doesn't know what Gloria stands for locally, I would direct him to the past 17 years of municipal council records.

There's plenty of good reading in there.

-- John White, campaign manager, Gloria Kovach campaign

Oranges?

Edited August 13, 2008 by madmax

[August1991]

As of now, more people think ST. Lambert is up for grabs, then previous results might indicate.

And Westmount looks to be a Liberal Lock even in previous results and our own straw poll.

I was walking through Westmount today, looking at people and I had the strangest sense that the NDP might win this. They have a very well known candidate who is popular with leftish Westmount matrons. It's a byelection where turn out is low and "fanatics" tend to dominate. Garneau has a kind of hapless image.

I know, I know that it's Westmount. So Garneau will get 65% instead of 90%.

[jdobbin]

I know, I know that it's Westmount. So Garneau will get 65% instead of 90%.

Given the latest poll that shows the Liberals have pulled even with the BQ, it would be a major defeat for the Liberals if they lost this seat. I don't know how Dion could continue.

[madmax]

I was walking through Westmount today, looking at people and I had the strangest sense that the NDP might win this. They have a very well known candidate who is popular with leftish Westmount matrons. It's a byelection where turn out is low and "fanatics" tend to dominate. Garneau has a kind of hapless image.

I know, I know that it's Westmount. So Garneau will get 65% instead of 90%.

Oh, now you make me look for a few articles on Westmount.

Here is something from the Suburban.

It suggests a Garneau win, with the NDP 2nd. I just saw a poll with the NDP at 6% in Quebec below the Bq, LPC, CPC, GP and who knows who else ......

By Elections are definitely volatile.

It still looks like one for the spaceman and the LPC. And our straw poll says so too. And it will not be wrong on EDay

http://thesuburban.com/content.jsp?sid=906...mp;cnid=1016114

Liberal's Garneau leads but NDP's Dowson has strength downtown

By P.A. Sévigny, The Suburban

Jack Layton’s star candidate, CBC journalist Anne Lagacé Dowson, is putting up a hard fight for the riding. Though not overcoming Liberal Marc Garneau’s lead, she is showing more strength in the downtown part of the riding than was evident in our survey of Westmount itself last week.

“The NDP vote is finally going to have an impact in this riding,” said Adrian King-Edwards. “Now the NDP will have far more influence in this area than it has ever had in the past.”

[madmax]

I was walking through Westmount today, looking at people and I had the strangest sense that the NDP might win this. They have a very well known candidate who is popular with leftish Westmount matrons. It's a byelection where turn out is low and "fanatics" tend to dominate. Garneau has a kind of hapless image.

I know, I know that it's Westmount. So Garneau will get 65% instead of 90%.

Do you know anything about the St. Lambert Riding? Do you know if the CPC are making a push there, is the BQ still strong/relevant and can the LPC take the riding back?

[madmax]

Well August 1991 got me searching for new stuff on the Net about the Quebec By Elections. Can't find much on the one election, but have another article on Westmount.

Houston We have a problem.....

http://www.themonitor.ca/article-239648-Ti...byelection.html

Is it possible the federal by-election campaign underway in Westmount-Ville Marie could escalate from a laid-back trot to a spirited gallop, and that the race could end up being between the incumbent Liberals and the NDP?

To some, that may be a little too far-fetched to believe, given the Liberals' longstanding and overwhelming lead here in past elections.

The NDP, however, are currently having a field day, because of a recent news report, in which Christian Bourque, vice-president of the Montreal polling firm Léger Marketing, suggested that a Liberal victory on Sept. 8 is not a sure thing.

[madmax]

More image problems for the CPC in Guelph. Apparently City Councillor Gloria Kovach who challenged the LPC Candidate to a debate anytime, anyplace, anywhere, decided to opt out of an all Candidates debate and go foot canvassing.

It's not necessarily that she didn't go to the debate, as the CPC have been having their Candidates not go to debates (London, ex Mayors poor decision in By-Election toasted the CPC), but the weakness is the challenge that she wouldn't back up.

A questionable strategy from the CPC.

[Moonbox]

I live in Guelph and try to follow even the bi-elections fairly close. I'm finding that people don't really seem to care about it. Voter turnout I anticipate will be really low.

One thing that I find funny, however, is that there are people going around town destroying CPC signs everywhere, as if for some reason that would sway everything.

Guelph does have a very strong CPC constituency, but it is one of the fastest growing cities in Canada (on a per capita basis) and is quickly becoming another satellite commute of Toronto. The LPC has basically dominated here federally for the last 15+ years and will probably do so again. Even with the loss of long term MP Brenda Chamberlain, I don't think Kovach has a chance here, although i will be voting for her anyways.

Urban Ontario will continue to vote Liberal, while smaller communities will continue to vote Conservative.

[Wild Bill]

Urban Ontario will continue to vote Liberal, while smaller communities will continue to vote Conservative.

Which would tend to confirm the notion that the LPC caters only to those in big cities and offers nothing to those in outside areas.

Not placing any value judgement here. After all, the success of this strategy over the past few decades can't be denied.

[Shakeyhands]

Which would tend to confirm the notion that the LPC caters only to those in big cities and offers nothing to those in outside areas.

How do you figure that? I mean really, what policies have the LPC introduced that offers anything contrary to rural voters?

[Vancouver King]

Which would tend to confirm the notion that the LPC caters only to those in big cities and offers nothing to those in outside areas.

Not placing any value judgement here. After all, the success of this strategy over the past few decades can't be denied.

I wasn't aware of such a notion. Is this grouped in with the axiom, "Tory times are tough times?"