Are you 'hungry for an election'?

Savant · July 23, 2008

Federal Liberal Leader Stephane Dion seems to feel that Canadians are 'hungry' for an election.

"We have seen over the winter and the spring more and more interest for federal politics," Dion told reporters Wednesday at a hotel in Ottawa's west end. "And more and more appetite for an election." (ref)

What do you think, have the times changed? Are people really 'hungry' for an election? Or is Dion trying to mentally prepare the public for an election by suggesting such?

Fortunata · July 23, 2008

Federal Liberal Leader Stephane Dion seems to feel that Canadians are 'hungry' for an election.
What do you think, have the times changed? Are people really 'hungry' for an election? Or is Dion trying to mentally prepare the public for an election by suggesting such?

I think Dion is now a little more confident, no doubt bolstered by people like Rae and Ignatieff (who want an election so as to turf Dion). So what this means is that the Libs are (or think they are) ready for an election. People could care less.

maldon_road · July 23, 2008

He has had plenty of chances to bring down the government and didn't. It's in his hands. I think it's more idle talk. He won't force an election.

Vancouver King · July 23, 2008

He has had plenty of chances to bring down the government and didn't. It's in his hands. I think it's more idle talk. He won't force an election.

If the forthcoming by-elections yield 2 or more Liberal seats a Fall 2008 general election is a safe wager as that result would tend to confirm recent favorable polling and amount to momentum.

Dion's Green Shift will be sold as a tax on polluters - neatly puting the Conservatives as defenders of those same polluters.

The opposition might never have a more favorable window to take the plunge.

jdobbin · July 23, 2008

He has had plenty of chances to bring down the government and didn't. It's in his hands. I think it's more idle talk. He won't force an election.

Sort of like how Harper had 19 chances to bring down the Liberals and always found a way to let the confidence measures pass?

M.Dancer · July 23, 2008

Sort of like how Harper had 19 chances to bring down the Liberals and always found a way to let the confidence measures pass?

By not bribing Cadman?

myata · July 23, 2008

For one thing, the election will show how serious we're about real climate change action. It's obvious by now that Harpers main strategy is to talk the problem out of existence.

Remiel · July 23, 2008

I hape been hungry for an election since a few months after the last one ended! Now, I am starving.

maldon_road · July 23, 2008

If the forthcoming by-elections yield 2 or more Liberal seats a Fall 2008 general election is a safe wager as that result would tend to confirm recent favorable polling and amount to momentum.

The Libs are in damage control mode. They won't win the next election; it's a question of maximizing the seats they can win.

Alexandra · July 23, 2008

By not bribing Cadman?

TOUCHE, Dancer.

`

Vancouver King · July 23, 2008

The Libs are in damage control mode. They won't win the next election; it's a question of maximizing the seats they can win.

The last major national poll showed only one Quebec voter in six - thats 1 in 6 - intends to vote Conservative. Whats Yo Harper's plan to undo this damage?

jdobbin · July 23, 2008

The Libs are in damage control mode. They won't win the next election; it's a question of maximizing the seats they can win.

And if the Tories win another minority, what does that say about Harper's strategy? It is highly doubtful that they will see the Liberals any weaker than they are now.

I suspect that there will be quite a few people in the Conservative party starting to think about their party's own leadership. How many kicks at the can does a leader get? A repeat minority makes Harper vulnerable.

jdobbin · July 23, 2008

The last major national poll showed only one Quebec voter in six - thats 1 in 6 - intends to vote Conservative. Whats Yo Harper's plan to undo this damage?

I guess the byelections will show if the Tories can win a seat against the BQ.

maldon_road · July 23, 2008

I guess the byelections will show if the Tories can win a seat against the BQ.

You learn bugger all from by-elections. Outremont will go back Lib in the next general election.

maldon_road · July 23, 2008

And if the Tories win another minority, what does that say about Harper's strategy? It is highly doubtful that they will see the Liberals any weaker than they are now.
I suspect that there will be quite a few people in the Conservative party starting to think about their party's own leadership. How many kicks at the can does a leader get? A repeat minority makes Harper vulnerable.

I can't see any way that there will be a majority government. Only two ways that the Libs can win - the population go for his carbon tax in a big way and/or more Tory scandals.

jdobbin · July 23, 2008

I can't see any way that there will be a majority government. Only two ways that the Libs can win - the population go for his carbon tax in a big way and/or more Tory scandals.

If the carbon tax was the only policy in an upcoming election, it might be an problem. One of the things about releasing the Liberal policy now is to test the waters in terms of acceptance. With the polls tied right now, I don't think see the Liberals in a tailspin because of it.

When the election occurs, the carbon policy will just be one of many policies. I doubt the Tories want to give the initiative to the Liberals by reacting to everything they do. It is defensive politics. One of the reasons they won the election (aside from the beautifully timed RCMP raid) was because they stuck to a simple message of priorities.

The Tories will have to come up with a similar strategy but there is likely to be additional scrutiny in light of higher inflation and a possible economic challenges.

As far as scandals go, the Tories should hope that Elections Canada comes to a decision soon on their spending because they might need some time to do damage control.

jdobbin · July 23, 2008

You learn bugger all from by-elections. Outremont will go back Lib in the next general election.

That certainly would be a shock to the NDP. I'm not sure if it will happen but the area does have a reputation of voting Liberal.

maldon_road · July 24, 2008

If the carbon tax was the only policy in an upcoming election, it might be an problem. One of the things about releasing the Liberal policy now is to test the waters in terms of acceptance. With the polls tied right now, I don't think see the Liberals in a tailspin because of it.

I see the environment as the biggest single issue in the election. Dion will try to make it that way, the Tories will dump on it, of course. Afghanistan is a non-starter since there is no real difference between the Tories and Grits.

And of course Tory "integrity, transparency and accountability" but I'm not sure how big these issues are with the public.

Most of all, another minority government and no election this fall.

Keepitsimple · July 24, 2008

And if the Tories win another minority, what does that say about Harper's strategy? It is highly doubtful that they will see the Liberals any weaker than they are now.
I suspect that there will be quite a few people in the Conservative party starting to think about their party's own leadership. How many kicks at the can does a leader get? A repeat minority makes Harper vulnerable.

Dream on. Canadians have never been against minority governments and some have worked quite well - including this one. If it wasn't for the divided "right" through the Chretien years, we probably would have had minority governments through most of that era. There is no shame in presiding over successive minority governments....it requires skillful politics and results in a moderate agenda.....and the longer that the Conservatives are in power, the more they will be accepted as the Governing Party. It's ver difficult to obtain majorities in the current political environment - a stronger minority would be just fine.

Wild Bill · July 24, 2008

....and the longer that the Conservatives are in power, the more they will be accepted as the Governing Party.

Very good point! Most voters don't care if a party had successive majority or minority governments. They simply get used to having a particular party in power.

The longer the Tories stay in power the more comfortable Canadians will become with them. As long as they don't pull something really stupid (like Adscam!) they could easily displace the Libs as the Natural Governing Party.

jdobbin · July 24, 2008

I see the environment as the biggest single issue in the election. Dion will try to make it that way, the Tories will dump on it, of course. Afghanistan is a non-starter since there is no real difference between the Tories and Grits.

It only the biggest issue of other parties decide to make it their issue as well.

Afghanistan can become an issue if opinion on how it is being fought comes to the fore. There are differences on that subject.

And of course Tory "integrity, transparency and accountability" but I'm not sure how big these issues are with the public.

We've seen it is important every time the government has not been transparent.

Most of all, another minority government and no election this fall.

With the right issue, an election is a distinct possibility. With the right scandal, the government could come down as well. It is up to Dion now.

maldon_road · July 24, 2008

It is up to Dion now.

And he will blink because all indications will be that if we have a fall election it will be a return of the status quo. And that means bye bye Steph.

jdobbin · July 24, 2008

Dream on. Canadians have never been against minority governments and some have worked quite well - including this one. If it wasn't for the divided "right" through the Chretien years, we probably would have had minority governments through most of that era. There is no shame in presiding over successive minority governments....it requires skillful politics and results in a moderate agenda.....and the longer that the Conservatives are in power, the more they will be accepted as the Governing Party. It's ver difficult to obtain majorities in the current political environment - a stronger minority would be just fine.

Canadians have not been against minority governments but political parties don't usually award leaders who win repeated minorities. They are generally expected to step aside before the next election.

I don't know if I have ever heard of a strong minority. If the timing of an election isn't yours, then it isn't strong. Canadians love that this makes governments cautious and/or responsive but it also makes them vulnerable.

jdobbin · July 24, 2008

And he will blink because all indications will be that if we have a fall election it will be a return of the status quo.

It may well be but there is a growing number of Liberals including Dion who seem to want to go.

And that means bye bye Steph.

Yes, it does.

myata · July 24, 2008

I can't see any way that there will be a majority government. Only two ways that the Libs can win - the population go for his carbon tax in a big way and/or more Tory scandals.

One big difference between a Liberal minority, and the Tory one, would be, for once, a meaningful action on climate change. All parties, as majority of Canadians, agree that immediate action should be taken. Except, of course, Harpers' Conservatives, who're working really hard to make it happen - in China and India.