Canadian Political Polls

jdobbin · January 16, 2008

Canadians get to know Dion, Flee in fear.....

I posted the poll yesterday. According to the pollster, it puts Dion is the company of Harper prior to the election in 2006.

In any event, it hasn't buried the Liberals in the polls according to the same link.

M.Dancer · January 16, 2008

I posted the poll yesterday. According to the pollster, it puts Dion is the company of Harper prior to the election in 2006.
In any event, it hasn't buried the Liberals in the polls according to the same link.

Forgive my father for I have reposted....

jdobbin · January 16, 2008

Forgive my father for I have reposted....

I don't think you should blame your father for this. lol

M.Dancer · January 16, 2008

forgive me father, I misused a pronoun...

capricorn · January 28, 2008

The latest Ipsos Reid poll sees the Conservatives at a level of support consistent with the numbers they've racked up over the last 2 years. At 37%, the margin of error could put them close to majority territory. At this time, it's impossible to know one way or the other.

The new national survey, conducted by Ipsos Reid exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National, shows the Tories resuming their lead on the Grits, with 37-per-cent support compared to 29 per cent held by their main opposition. The poll shows a jump in support of four per cent by the Tories, while the Grits dropped six per cent since the last survey two weeks ago.

The NDP trail behind the two main parties with 14 per cent support while the Greens have 10 per cent.

The Bloc Québécois, meanwhile, leads in support in their province with 35 per cent, while the Tories hold second place with 26 per cent, ahead of the Grits who hold 21 per cent. The NDP is at 12 per cent in the province, while the Green party holds only five per cent of Quebecers in the poll.

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/s...3b-d3d3de22f405

The show starts again tomorrow in the H of C.

jdobbin · January 28, 2008

The latest Ipsos Reid poll sees the Conservatives at a level of support consistent with the numbers they've racked up over the last 2 years. At 37%, the margin of error could put them close to majority territory. At this time, it's impossible to know one way or the other.
The Bloc Québécois, meanwhile, leads in support in their province with 35 per cent, while the Tories hold second place with 26 per cent, ahead of the Grits who hold 21 per cent. The NDP is at 12 per cent in the province, while the Green party holds only five per cent of Quebecers in the poll.[/i]

The show starts again tomorrow in the H of C.

Looks like the same results we saw during the election. John Wright from Ipsos says that if an election were held today, The Tories would be elected with a minority. It is pretty much what I have been expecting ever since the last election.

It is going to be a rocky week. As Decima mentioned a number of weeks ago, the Tories do better when the House is not in session for a while.

capricorn · January 28, 2008

Looks like the same results we saw during the election. John Wright from Ipsos says that if an election were held today, The Tories would be elected with a minority. It is pretty much what I have been expecting ever since the last election.

Be honest jd. In your heart of hearts, you would love for the Liberals to eke out a small minority. As things stand though, with the margin of error taken into account in this poll the Conservatives could indeed eke out a small majority. Let's see what the next poll says after the House resumes.

It is going to be a rocky week. As Decima mentioned a number of weeks ago, the Tories do better when the House is not in session for a while.

Both the Liberals and the Conservatives have shot themselves in the foot over the last month. What will help the Conservatives in the next couple of weeks is that Canadians will start receiving larger than usual income tax refunds and they will be beholden to them. The Keen firing is now a yawner so I don't think there is any traction to be gained there. And as you know, benefit of the doubt over contentious issues generally benefits the party in power. In addition, it is not good news for Liberals that Canadians are revising their opinion regarding merits of the Afghan mission following the release of the Manley report.

jd, with all this evidence before you, why don't you come over from the dark side. :lol:

jdobbin · January 28, 2008

Be honest jd. In your heart of hearts, you would love for the Liberals to eke out a small minority. As things stand though, with the margin of error taken into account in this poll the Conservatives could indeed eke out a small majority. Let's see what the next poll says after the House resumes.

If the actual numbers push over the 40% level, they could get a majority. I haven't seen any polling in the last weeks to indicate that though.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=266935

Wright said while the Conservatives have resumed their lead in national support, another election would produce another minority Parliament.

I'd like the Liberals to take back the government but failing that, I am happy to hold the Tories to a minority.

Both the Liberals and the Conservatives have shot themselves in the foot over the last month. What will help the Conservatives in the next couple of weeks is that Canadians will start receiving larger than usual income tax refunds and they will be beholden to them. The Keen firing is now a yawner so I don't think there is any traction to be gained there. And as you know, benefit of the doubt over contentious issues generally benefits the party in power. In addition, it is not good news for Liberals that Canadians are revising their opinion regarding merits of the Afghan mission following the release of the Manley report.

That good news I'm sure will be tempered by the fact that information now reveals that torture in Afghanistan is now an issue again.

The tax news just doesn't carry long after a budget as witnessed by both Martin and Harper budgets. Canada is a "what have you done for me lately?" nation.

jd, with all this evidence before you, why don't you come over from the dark side.

There are too many issues that I differ on from the Tories.

jdobbin · January 29, 2008

Latest poll from Decima.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...128?hub=QPeriod

A new poll suggests the Liberals have pulled ahead of the Conservatives amid bad news on the economy and controversy over the Afghan military mission.
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates the Liberals were the party of choice for 32 per cent of respondents, compared to 29 for the Tories.

The NDP stood at 16 per cent and the Green party at 12. The Bloc Quebecois was at nine per cent nationally but in Quebec -- the only province where the Bloc runs candidates -- the party led the pack at 37 per cent.

The Liberals were ahead of the Tories in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec.

The two parties have been see-sawing into and out of the national lead since mid-December.

The latest poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday, following a spate of warnings about declining economic growth, rising unemployment and a possible recession on the horizon.

There was also a furor over the continuing military deployment in Afghanistan, fed in part by the disclosure that the government failed to reveal that the military has stopped handing over prisoners to Afghan authorities because of torture concerns.

Bruce Anderson, president of Harris-Decima, said the Conservatives appeared to many voters to be losing control of political events.

It is see-sawing back and forth between Liberals and Tories from poll to poll.

An election is crapshoot to call but I still say it would probably be a return of the Tories with a minority.

I wonder if Dion is feeling like this:

Edited January 29, 2008 by jdobbin

jdobbin · February 4, 2008

Latest poll from UniMarketing has Liberals and Tories tied with same level of support.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080204/...poll_canada_col

Canada's ruling Conservatives are tied with the opposition Liberals in public support, according to a poll published on Monday, with both parties short of the backing needed to form a majority government.
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A UniMarketing survey for La Presse newspaper put both parties at 33 percent support. The Conservatives won a minority government in the January 2006 election with 36 percent of the vote.

The poll had discouraging news for the Conservatives, who have been confident they can pick up more seats in French-speaking Quebec at the next election.

In Quebec, the separatist Bloc Quebecois party was at 36 points, well ahead of the Conservatives at 27 percent -- a figure only slightly better than their result in 2006 -- and the Liberals on 20 percent.

The poll shows resilience in the Bloc vote in Quebec.

M.Dancer · February 7, 2008

Harper is still considered the best leader.

www.nanosresearch.com.

Question: As you may know, [ROTATE] Stephane Dion is the leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Jack Layton is the leader of the federal NDP, Gilles Duceppe is the leader of the Bloc Quebecois and Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The numbers in parenthesis denotes the change from the previous Nanos Research survey completed in November 2007 (90 day change).

The most trustworthy leader

Stephen Harper 30 (-1)

Jack Layton 21 (+7)

Stephane Dion 14 (+2)

Elizabeth May 8 (+4)

Gilles Duceppe 6 (NC)

UNPROMPTED

None of them/Undecided 20 (-13)

The most competent leader

Stephen Harper 39 (NC)

Stephane Dion 16 (+5)

Jack Layton 15 (+2)

Gilles Duceppe 6 (NC)

Elizabeth May 3 (NC)

UNPROMPTED

None of them/Undecided 22 (-5)

The leader with the best vision for Canada's future

Stephen Harper 32 (-3)

Jack Layton 18 (+3)

Stephane Dion 17 (+2)

Gilles Duceppe 3 (NC)

Elizabeth May 6 (+1)

UNPROMPTED

None of them/Undecided 24 (-4)

Political Junkie · February 8, 2008

Looking at those poll results, (Always showing Harper as the best leader), it makes me wonder why the Conservatives aren't in majority territory yet. While I think they'll get a majority over the course of an election, I'm surprised that they are not consistently at the level of a majority.

jdobbin · February 8, 2008

Looking at those poll results, (Always showing Harper as the best leader), it makes me wonder why the Conservatives aren't in majority territory yet. While I think they'll get a majority over the course of an election, I'm surprised that they are not consistently at the level of a majority.

When all of the leaders compete with "none of the above", it is easy to see why no one gets close to majority.

Topaz · February 8, 2008

How can Harper be the best leader when he allowed his finance minister to break his own accountability rule and only told him not to do it again and walked away ?????? I don't think alot of the voters will support him next time around.

jbg · February 8, 2008

Looking at those poll results, (Always showing Harper as the best leader), it makes me wonder why the Conservatives aren't in majority territory yet. While I think they'll get a majority over the course of an election, I'm surprised that they are not consistently at the level of a majority.

For the same reasons that Obama's poll numbers will be sharply higher than the actual election results (if he's nominated). Many people in the US don't want to admit voting against a black person, but in the privacy of a voting booth will. Many people in Canada probably don't want to admit being in favor of a true conservate (note the "small c") but again, in privacy will vote CPC.

margrace · February 8, 2008

Ontarions should look long and hard at what happened when they gave Mike Harris a free hand.

MontyBurns · February 8, 2008

For the same reasons that Obama's poll numbers will be sharply higher than the actual election results (if he's nominated). Many people in the US don't want to admit voting against a black person, but in the privacy of a voting booth will. Many people in Canada probably don't want to admit being in favor of a true conservate (note the "small c") but again, in privacy will vote CPC.

I think if I was an American I would avoid voting for that Obama guy. He looks a little bit too dark for me.

jdobbin · February 8, 2008

Latest Nanos poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080208/...litics_poll_col

Canada's opposition Liberals have taken a slight lead over the ruling Conservatives in an opinion poll released on Friday, but both parties are well short of the level needed to form a majority government.
The Nanos Research survey put the Liberals at 33 percent and the Conservatives at 31 percent.

Under Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, a party needs 40 percent of the vote to stand a chance of winning a majority of the 308 seats in Parliament -- the Conservatives won a minority government in January 2006 with 36 percent of the vote and have 126 seats in Parliament.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper says he wants to govern until the next scheduled election date of October 2009, but some party strategists want an election earlier to take advantage of a still-strong economy and what they say is the weak leadership of Liberal leader Stephane Dion.

Parliament faces three confidence votes between now and the end of March, and Dion says he is ready to go to the polls.

"Calling an election is fraught with risks for them both," pollster Nik Nanos wrote in a commentary. He said the survey showed that repeated efforts by the Conservatives to portray Dion as ineffectual had had no effect.

"The reality is that the Tories are not fighting Dion ... they are fighting the Liberal brand," he said.

Harper called a confidence vote today. It doesn't look like Harper is close to a majority yet in support. I wonder how his party will feel if he repeats another minority.

LastViking · February 9, 2008

Latest Nanos poll.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080208/...litics_poll_col

Harper called a confidence vote today. It doesn't look like Harper is close to a majority yet in support. I wonder how his party will feel if he repeats another minority.

http://trendlines.ca/electcanada.htm

jdobbin · February 15, 2008

Latest poll from Leger has Tories in the lead.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080214/...litics_poll_col

The Conservatives lead in public support but the opposition Liberals are nipping at their heels, according to a poll released on Thursday.
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The Leger Marketing poll for Le Devoir and the Montreal Gazette put the Conservatives at 37 percent and the opposition Liberals at 32 percent.

The Conservatives of Prime Minister Stephen Harper won the January 2006 election with 36 percent of the vote. Leger Marketing said the Liberals were making advances in major provinces such as Quebec and Ontario, which between them account for more than half the 308 seats in Parliament.

"The Liberals are doing better than that the national figures suggest," said Leger's Christian Bourque.

Under Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, a party needs around 40 percent of the vote to stand a chance of winning a majority. The Conservatives have 126 seats.

The polls keep see-sawing back and forth with no indication that any party has broken free to majority territory.

blueblood · February 15, 2008

Latest poll from Leger has Tories in the lead.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080214/...litics_poll_col

The polls keep see-sawing back and forth with no indication that any party has broken free to majority territory.

With all of these polls, they are going to be running out of people to call :lol:

I think it's all down to who runs the best campaign and who has the best debate, how it should be.

capricorn · February 15, 2008

With all of these polls, they are going to be running out of people to call

Either that or the rest of the people are on the national "do not call" list. :lol:

I think it's all down to who runs the best campaign and who has the best debate, how it should be.

Common sense strikes again.

jdobbin · February 15, 2008

With all of these polls, they are going to be running out of people to call
I think it's all down to who runs the best campaign and who has the best debate, how it should be.

I think the polls give an indication of whether any party feels they have a chance if they pull the plug now.

Given what we have seen, I don't think any party should feel confident of a majority on the issues we see now.

jdobbin · February 15, 2008

Either that or the rest of the people are on the national "do not call" list.

Is that do not call list up and running?

Common sense strikes again.

I think the common sense has been the Harper doesn't want to have an election on issues like Afghanistan. The Senate issue is not likely to catch fire since when it gets right down to it, it would require a constitutional change that is easier promised than delivered. That leaves the budget. There was a lot of talk in these forums about how majority support was achievable because if the celebratory feeling people would have on their GST cut. Well, here we are in February and several polls have had the Liberals and Tories tied or slightly ahead of one another and neither is in majority support.

So...who besides Dion is likely to be hurt by another Tory minority: The answer is Harper. How many times will his party let him lead with that being as good as it is going to get?

blueblood · February 15, 2008

I think the polls give an indication of whether any party feels they have a chance if they pull the plug now.
Given what we have seen, I don't think any party should feel confident of a majority on the issues we see now.

I heard Dion wants to shut her down on MDL, and his caucus is divided on the issue. I don't know why the NDP and the Bloc would want an election, given that the populace might be sick of minority gov'ts and those two logjamming parliament.

I think if it did come down to an election campaign, it would be hard to be swayed by the polls. (I don't like them during campaigns as it gives the impression of "pushing" some people to vote one way.) Best speech and campaign will win it.