Canadian Political Polls

[Wild Bill]

I'd have no problem if the NDP stole BQ votes and even supplanted them. I'd prefer the province to be represented by federalists and the one thing I have never questioned about the NDP is their commitment to federalism.

Those BQ though...they hide in the tall grass and grab the seats in the House when it counts.

Hey jdobbin! Have you noticed that by apologizing when we're misunderstood and trying to be a bit more respectful we appear to have successfully made things more civilized on this board? Or at least in this thread!

Manners CAN set an example!

We'll "civilize" the rest of these folks yet!

[jdobbin]

Hey jdobbin! Have you noticed that by apologizing when we're misunderstood and trying to be a bit more respectful we appear to have successfully made things more civilized on this board? Or at least in this thread!

Manners CAN set an example!

We'll "civilize" the rest of these folks yet!

I've always respected your posts. There are times I have read what you wrote, accepted it as a good point and not commented on it because it was either something I agreed with or something that had validity no matter what the politics.

I have no problems saying I'm partisan but I'm not about to say that the Liberals are headed to victory, that Chretien didn't stay in office too long or that Dion hasn't got problems in Quebec that go back to the Clarity Act. I'll leave that to a party spokesman.

Things can get heated in debates here but trying to keep things civil is important. We all have to catch ourselves sometimes to get back on track in that regard.

[Vancouver King]

Whatever happened to this modern idea of 'consensus', where if a majority of 'scientists' believe in global warming then it must be true? Nanos is outside the consensus. I guess for some it's all in what you believe in the first place.

How quickly you embrace mediocrity. Why average also-rans into some 'consensus' when one oracle towers over the rest? Opinions based on proven information carry much more weight than those based on failure.

This Nanos poll has a greater message than the the 3-way race in Quebec, the firming NDP showing or the disappearing Tory vote in the Maritimes. The Liberal national number up 5% over 2006 confirms suspicions that the impending election call was based on a degree of CPC desperation and not the usual in-control Harper strategy.

Our PM running scared - what an unusual image.

[Wild Bill]

How quickly you embrace mediocrity. Why average also-rans into some 'consensus' when one oracle towers over the rest? Opinions based on proven information carry much more weight than those based on failure.

This Nanos poll has a greater message than the the 3-way race in Quebec, the firming NDP showing or the disappearing Tory vote in the Maritimes. The Liberal national number up 5% over 2006 confirms suspicions that the impending election call was based on a degree of CPC desperation and not the usual in-control Harper strategy.

Our PM running scared - what an unusual image.

How quickly you embrace partisanship over math! For that's what polls are, sheer math!

Math doesn't care how you feel about things. Nanos may have better methodology but they are NOT oracles! There is no mysticism involved.

You studiously ignored my point about how many times has Nanos been that accurate. I guess if you got what you needed even once for purposes of your argument then damn math, that's enough!

You're entitled to your beliefs but if that's all they're based on I would never cover your bets.

Edited August 30, 2008 by Wild Bill

[Glen P. Robbins]

Polls are always weighted VK. The adjustment would be found in the margin of error--in this case the higher sample in BC. The normal factor is Ontario--38.3%, Quebec---23.8%, BC 12.9% Alberta 11.1% and so on. Ideally you want the number of respondents to reflect this proportion--but as an alternative one can take the higher sample--in this case BC and use it as a sort of base line for the other percentages derived. Even in this ideal----the specific margin of error per province in isolation would be somewhat high---400 respondents in Ontario is still around 5% margin of error. The calculation method is generic. So--even in this poll the overall numbers--I certainly couldn't use BC---@36% for example with Alberta @60%---Quebec etc. (for Conservatives). Obviously I could not extrapolite BC over Canada for Conservatives or Liberals or NDP---imagine what the outcome would have been if I were doing as you suggested! If you had held your breath for a moment VK--you would have gone past stage 1 to realize this.

It never ceases to amaze me what pomposity prevails upon so many 'anonymous' bloggers.

[Ontario Loyalist]

I pay little attention to polls. They should not be published during an election, either.

[Vancouver King]

You studiously ignored my point about how many times has Nanos been that accurate. I guess if you got what you needed even once for purposes of your argument then damn math, that's enough!

No I studiously ignored your question about Nanos' accuracy since you seem quite capable of doing your own research. Your prolific output in this site tells me you certainly have the time.

Whether Nanos arrived at it's 2006 prediction by examining the entrails of birds or employing superior methodology, the fact is the firm accomplished near perfection in political polling. Since you claim to have some understanding of math, work out the probabilities - even the order of magnitude - of that 2006 accomplishment.

Then you can post your apology for denigrating a once in a lifetime achievement.

[Oleg Bach]

No I studiously ignored your question about Nanos' accuracy since you seem quite capable of doing your own research. Your prolific output in this site tells me you certainly have the time.

Whether Nanos arrived at it's 2006 prediction by examining the entrails of birds or employing superior methodology, the fact is the firm accomplished near perfection in political polling. Since you claim to have some understanding of math, work out the probabilities - even the order of magnitude - of that 2006 accomplishment.

Then you can post your apology for denigrating a once in a lifetime achievement.

I apolgize on behalf of everyone in the world - boy - that would make me a professional apologist...bet you there is money in that trade - I am so sorry - I said that.

[Wild Bill]

No I studiously ignored your question about Nanos' accuracy since you seem quite capable of doing your own research. Your prolific output in this site tells me you certainly have the time.

Whether Nanos arrived at it's 2006 prediction by examining the entrails of birds or employing superior methodology, the fact is the firm accomplished near perfection in political polling. Since you claim to have some understanding of math, work out the probabilities - even the order of magnitude - of that 2006 accomplishment.

Then you can post your apology for denigrating a once in a lifetime achievement.

An apology? I never denigrated their achievement! Quit the straw man tactics! They don't become you.

As for the probabilities of a single instance, in what context? I thought you were asking me to accept that because of one instance they are always and forever more to be just as accurate.

That just doesn't make sense. If I win one lottery ticket, will I always win?

If it's YOUR contention that Nanos' history justifies such confidence then prove your own point! Why the hell should I be expected to prove yours for you?

Even the Witness at my door on weekends wants me to READ his magazine and then decide if his message is valid. You're scolding me that I should write your magazine for you!

In another life! Defend your own points and I'll defend mine, thank you very much!

[Oleg Bach]

I wonder about polling companies. Is it possible that the guys that own them are friends with the guys in politics that lie a lot?

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos poll:

http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/story....f2-d6e1ef45a0ec

The poll, taken this week exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National by Ipsos Reid, found 33 per cent of respondents would vote Conservative and 31 per cent would vote Liberal. The margin of error is within three percentage points, meaning both major parties would start a campaign with essentially the same voter support.

There are other breakdowns that are fairly interesting but we are looking at a tie at the moment.

[jdobbin]

Latest Strategic Counsel poll.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

The latest Strategic Counsel Poll, conducted for CTV and the Globe and Mail, indicates that Conservative support rose sharply in the past few months (percentage-point change from a June 6-9 poll in brackets):

* Conservatives: 37 per cent (+5)

* Liberals: 29 per cent (-1)

* New Democrats: 17 per cent (-1)

* Green Party: 9 per cent (-1)

* Bloc Quebecois: 8 per cent (-2)

It's the largest lead the Conservatives have had over the Liberals since last March, when they were briefly ahead by 11 points. In addition, the latest poll suggests 49 per cent of Canadians feel Canada is on the right track, while only 34 per cent feel the country is on the wrong track.

This poll have the Tories ahead of the Liberals in Ontario and behind the Liberals in Quebec.

[Fortunata]

There's a lot of polling to be done before election day. Hopefully people will come to their senses.

[normanchateau]

Harper Tories on the brink of majority, poll finds:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/National

"The Harper Conservatives will enter a federal election campaign with a polling lead that puts them within striking distance of winning a majority government, according to a new survey taken on the eve of an expected vote.

According to the poll, conducted by the Strategic Counsel, 37 per cent of Canadians would opt to vote for the Tories were an election to be held today, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the NDP and 9 per cent for the Green Party. "

[capricorn]

If we were closer to the election, this poll would cost Harper some votes. Canadians were dissatisfied with some of the previous majority governments and is a big reason they seem to prefer minorities. The advantage for Harper is that Canadians are not yet fully engaged in an election and their attention is elsewhere, i.e. back to school, just back from holiday etc.

Actually, I am hoping the next poll shows a drop in support for the Conservatives. Canadians would then be less fearful of voting Conservative.

[M.Dancer]

Harper Tories on the brink of majority, poll finds:

According to the poll, conducted by the Strategic Counsel, 37 per cent of Canadians would opt to vote for the Tories were an election to be held today, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the NDP and 9 per cent for the Green Party. "

GO GREENS!!!

I think it will be hilarious if Dion pushes for May to be at the debates....it would be like May selling Dion the rope the Liberals will hang him with..

[Alta4ever]

There's a lot of polling to be done before election day. Hopefully people will come to their senses.

and elect a grand Conservative Majority.

Edited September 2, 2008 by Alta4ever

[jdobbin]

and elect a grand Conservative Majority.

I don't think we have seen any evidence of that.

[Alta4ever]

I don't think we have seen any evidence of that.

One can hope that my fellow citizens will see how there views really do mirror true conservative ideology.

[jdobbin]

One can hope that my fellow citizens will see how there views really do mirror true conservative ideology.

I think most people don't really want to overspend so unless the Conservatives can get that under control...

That used to be the true Conservative ideology but it has been a promise broken in each year the Tories have been in power.

Edited September 2, 2008 by jdobbin

[Alta4ever]

I think most people don't really want to overspend so unless the Conservatives can get that under control...

That used to be the true Conservative ideology but it has been a promise broken in each year the Tories have been in power.

Why so up in arms when the tories have cut spending to certian programs? Those programs are not necessary.

Edited September 2, 2008 by Alta4ever

[jdobbin]

So why are so up in arms when the tories have cut spending to certian programs? Those programs are not necessary.

I have said there should be large cuts across the board. The Tories just make ideological cuts while breezing past their spending promise from the last election in each year they have been in office.

[Alta4ever]

I have said there should be large cuts across the board. The Tories just make ideological cuts while breezing past their spending promise from the last election in each year they have been in office.

Large cuts to what Health care, policing, social services, Military, gov grant programs, infrastructure? Do you think the liberals under Dion would do that, they want to increase taxes (Carbon TAX AKA the green shaft) to support more social spending. The NDP seem to want more, and so do the bloc, we're luck with what we got, on top of everything in the last two budgets they still managed to cut taxes.

[jdobbin]

Large cuts to what Health care, policing, social services, Military, gov grant programs, infrastructure? Do you think the liberals under Dion would do that, they want to increase taxes (Carbon TAX AKA the green shaft) to support more social spending.

The Liberals have cut services, transfers and the like. The Tories have not made much in the way of cuts and the ones they do make are based on things they dislike such as the arts.

Dion's plan is a shift in taxation not a general tax increase. The Tory plan will end up costing a lot more. As per usual.

[Alta4ever]

Where the liberals in a minority at the time?

We have only seen a minority CPC gov. it will/could be interesting to see what a majority cpc gov. would look like.

No even dions caucus is able to grasp or understand the Carbon tax, but they do agree that it will cost the economy and the tax payer heavily.

Even hedy fry isn't on board.