Canadian Political Polls

[daniel]

This is the dumbest thing you have said yet.

If it weren't for the anonymity of this forum, I'm sure there would be a lot less statements made that people wouldn't want to later publically apologize for.

[Shakeyhands]

Yes, I know they spread AIDS.

I know, I know!!! You're Tom Lukiwski** !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

** or any number of CPC MP's.

Monty is just having some fun.... I think.

Edited April 29, 2008 by Shakeyhands

[punked]

AIDS is primarily a gay disease here in NA. You did not know that?

By that logic we can say it is primarily French disease cause it is concentrated in Quebec in comparison to other provinces.

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from Decima on the election spending issue.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...Sw_CPT5SrAgJvQg

A new poll suggests most Canadians believe the federal Conservatives spent more money than they were legally allowed during the last election.

Fifty-eight per cent of respondents told The Canadian Press/Harris-Decima survey they don't believe the Tories' insistence that they did nothing wrong.

Doubts about the ruling party's response to the affair were most pronounced in British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario - the three most populous provinces that will determine the outcome of the next election.

Also, 33 per cent of respondents believed that if the allegations are true, the illegal overspending would have been a decisive factor in the Conservatives' minority victory in the 2006 vote.

Nearly 2/3s of Canadian don't believe the Tories. It seems to be hurting them in the provinces they need to win the most too.

[madmax]

Latest poll from Decima on the election spending issue.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...Sw_CPT5SrAgJvQg

Nearly 2/3s of Canadian don't believe the Tories. It seems to be hurting them in the provinces they need to win the most too.

Much of what was said in the other thread, about the CPC IN and OUT scam having little effect in Quebec is bearing out with this Crop Poll, according to the commentator.

Yet Dion is not doing well in Quebec.

Add these two polls together and you see why there is little movement. The next election will be fought in the trenches, but I still believe that a breakthrough will occur.

But by Whom?

http://communities.canada.com/montrealgaze...oll-is-out.aspx

[nothinarian]

Latest poll from Decima on the election spending issue.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...Sw_CPT5SrAgJvQg

Nearly 2/3s of Canadian don't believe the Tories. It seems to be hurting them in the provinces they need to win the most too.

Although it is nice to see the gatekeepers of ethics squirm

We live in a snippet world where rapid fire images/headlines and sound bytes shape public opinion - not facts

Partisan hacks on all sides exploit these for their parties benefit and reproduce favourable snippets ad nauseum in as many mediums as possible . Sad whentwo gentleman of impeccable ethics, Cadman and Goodale, are smeared by hacks on opposing sides without regard to their service or records

Back to polls, we also frequently believe and cite media and polls regardles of their obvious RW(Post, Sun) or LW(Star) bent

This one may not reflect reality as question seems non-scientific and biased towards general mistrust of politicians - who would admit they believe a poiltican unless they were partisan to begin with - wouldn't that be admitting their naievete based on snippet conditioning ?

[gc1765]

Sad whentwo gentleman of impeccable ethics, Cadman and Goodale, are smeared by hacks on opposing sides without regard to their service or records

I don't think anyone has ever tried to smear Chuck Cadman...

[nothinarian]

I don't think anyone has ever tried to smear Chuck Cadman...

Fair enough re: anyone specifically naming Cadman but in snippet world his name ran acroos the screen/headines with words like bribery , scandal etc...he will be remembered as a champion for victims rights by those who are informed(10%) and for the rest of the masses (90%) if they remember him it will be linked with scandal and bribery - unfortunate

I guess parliamentary immunity and loose allegations by partisan hacks on all sides of the house has as much to do with this as the media, who generally are spoonfed scandal cereal by our proud representatives

[jdobbin]

Much of what was said in the other thread, about the CPC IN and OUT scam having little effect in Quebec is bearing out with this Crop Poll, according to the commentator.

Yet Dion is not doing well in Quebec.

Dion is a major issue in Quebec. I don't know that many Quebecers would support him even if he had majority support in the rest of Canada.

Add these two polls together and you see why there is little movement. The next election will be fought in the trenches, but I still believe that a breakthrough will occur.

But by Whom?

http://communities.canada.com/montrealgaze...oll-is-out.aspx

We have to look at the Leger poll as well.

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news...0e-61003c5c5200

At the federal level, the Leger poll of 1,000 Quebecers for Le Devoir saw the Bloc Québécois and the Conservatives in a statistical tie at 31 and 29 per cent, with the Liberals at 21 per cent and the New Democrats at 12 per cent.

Not good for Dion here. Still strong on the island of Montreal but outside of the city the Tories have become the main alternative to the BQ.

The CROP numbers pretty much confirm the Leger numbers.

The Liberal party in Quebec needs work in a major way but they seem reluctant to get behind Dion. Their support has been unwavering in support of Ignatieff.

I still think that if an election were held today that the Tories would win another minority. For the Liberals, this would bring about a new leader. For the Tories? Who knows? How many times will the Conservatives allow Harper to lead it to the well and not have that long drink of water of majority support?

[jdobbin]

I guess parliamentary immunity and loose allegations by partisan hacks on all sides of the house has as much to do with this as the media, who generally are spoonfed scandal cereal by our proud representatives

Unfortunately, the accusation of bribery came from Cadman's widow and family. They were the ones that described Chuck Cadman's reaction as being one of "disgust."

It should be noted he refused that offer.

Edited April 30, 2008 by jdobbin

[nothinarian]

Dion is a major issue in Quebec. I don't know that many Quebecers would support him even if he had majority support in the rest of Canada.

We have to look at the Leger poll as well.

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news...0e-61003c5c5200

Not good for Dion here. Still strong on the island of Montreal but outside of the city the Tories have become the main alternative to the BQ.

The CROP numbers pretty much confirm the Leger numbers.

The Liberal party in Quebec needs work in a major way but they seem reluctant to get behind Dion. Their support has been unwavering in support of Ignatieff.

I still think that if an election were held today that the Tories would win another minority. For the Liberals, this would bring about a new leader. For the Tories? Who knows? How many times will the Conservatives allow Harper to lead it to the well and not have that long drink of water of majority support?

Rumour has it that one Mr. Lord is still interested . Would need a strong base in his birth province of Quebec so if Mr. Harper gets a minority , loses patience, moves right/libertarian and alienates Quebec there could be a movement. Alternatively Harper embraces Quebec and alienates RW/West and Mssr.'s Manning or Harris get dusted off. Tough balancing act with no clear bridging strategy especially since fiscal quagmire ahead.

[jdobbin]

Rumour has it that one Mr. Lord is still interested . Would need a strong base in his birth province of Quebec so if Mr. Harper gets a minority , loses patience, moves right/libertarian and alienates Quebec there could be a movement. Alternatively Harper embraces Quebec and alienates RW/West and Mssr.'s Manning or Harris get dusted off. Tough balancing act with no clear bridging strategy especially since fiscal quagmire ahead.

There are few in the Conservative party that immediately jump to mind as successors to Harper. I don't even know how many are fully bilingual. That strikes a few off the list immediately. Manning doesn't speak French well. I have no idea about Harris.

[nothinarian]

There are few in the Conservative party that immediately jump to mind as successors to Harper. I don't even know how many are fully bilingual. That strikes a few off the list immediately. Manning doesn't speak French well. I have no idea about Harris.

How about old PC guard untiing behind Lord if Harper moves right - if he moves left I don't think bilingualism will be as big an issue for obvious reasons - not sure on Harris - McKay struggles - Prentice better - Lord perfect - Belinda......sorry lost it for a second

[jdobbin]

How about old PC guard untiing behind Lord if Harper moves right - if he moves left I don't think bilingualism will be as big an issue for obvious reasons - not sure on Harris - McKay struggles - Prentice better - Lord perfect - Belinda......sorry lost it for a second

How many old PCs are left?

I don't think any Conservative party that wants to be a national party can do it without a fully bilingual leader. If Lord can be lured back, he meets the criteria but I don't know what sort of base he has in the party nowadays.

[nothinarian]

How many old PCs are left?

I don't think any Conservative party that wants to be a national party can do it without a fully bilingual leader. If Lord can be lured back, he meets the criteria but I don't know what sort of base he has in the party nowadays.

Montreal Law firm and still does the talking head thing on Duffy so keeping some profie

Recruitment effort was hot and heavy at one time so still has some key influencers in his camp but would be hard-pressed to haul out the knives after plum bilingual appointment from Harper

[Michael Bluth]

How about old PC guard untiing behind Lord if Harper moves right - if he moves left I don't think bilingualism will be as big an issue for obvious reasons - not sure on Harris - McKay struggles - Prentice better - Lord perfect - Belinda......sorry lost it for a second.

The old PC guard was for the most part burned by Lord. Lord handled pulling out of the last federal PC leadership race very poorly. The night before he held the press conference pulling out of the race he had a conference call with his leadership team, a call detailing how the press conference the next day was to announce we was running and getting the organization ready. For whatever reason he changed his mind and didn't tell any (most?) of the people on the call he was pulling out. They were all left with their d*cks swinging in the wind. He made them look bad. People have long memories.

He may have been able to give Harper a serious run for his money in the CPC leadership, but pulled out right away because all the organizational strength from the old PCs told him where to go. No way they have changed their minds now.

French skills? Prentice is still working hard on his French - he will probably get the backing of the old PC crowd. Alas, two PMs in a row from Calgary ... not gonna happen. Baird's French is pretty good and there will be a candidate from Ontario. Verner maybe? Diane Finley? Fluently bilingual, female, Ontarian, Doug Finley as a husband helps a ton. She has been getting more ink these days as Immigration minister. The blue blockers might freak some people out though. Tony Clement could try again ... bah!

[nothinarian]

The old PC guard was for the most part burned by Lord. Lord handled pulling out of the last federal PC leadership race very poorly. The night before he held the press conference pulling out of the race he had a conference call with his leadership team, a call detailing how the press conference the next day was to announce we was running and getting the organization ready. For whatever reason he changed his mind and didn't tell any (most?) of the people on the call he was pulling out. They were all left with their d*cks swinging in the wind. He made them look bad. People have long memories.

He may have been able to give Harper a serious run for his money in the CPC leadership, but pulled out right away because all the organizational strength from the old PCs told him where to go. No way they have changed their minds now.

French skills? Prentice is still working hard on his French - he will probably get the backing of the old PC crowd. Alas, two PMs in a row from Calgary ... not gonna happen. Baird's French is pretty good and there will be a candidate from Ontario. Verner maybe? Diane Finley? Fluently bilingual, female, Ontarian, Doug Finley as a husband helps a ton. She has been getting more ink these days as Immigration minister. The blue blockers might freak some people out though. Tony Clement could try again ... bah!

I recall Lord of the Fried dance - Oh perchance to have that in and out scenario versus one at present

How about Mike Harris - strategically could keep west in and tight with Preston, , appeals to base/rural , native son in Ontario, probably would bring in other p*ssed premiers (esp. williams)or would premier baggage a la Bob Rae be the major factor

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos poll.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=488445

A drumbeat of gloomy forecasts about the economy and escalating allegations about the governing Conservatives' election financing irregularities have so far failed to break the deadlock in public support among the federal political parties, a new Ipsos Reid poll reveals.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives command 34% in support among decided voters, compared with 29% for the Liberals, according to the nationwide survey, which was conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National.

The result is little changed from an Ipsos Reid poll on April 11, when the Conservatives posted 35% in support, compared with 30% for the Liberals.

No real change from the last poll, no real change from the election.

The Liberals and NDP are both up in Quebec. The Conservatives have fallen to third place. I'd hate to see a real federalist split just to see the BQ score big.

[nothinarian]

Latest Ipsos poll.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=488445

No real change from the last poll, no real change from the election.

The Liberals and NDP are both up in Quebec. The Conservatives have fallen to third place. I'd hate to see a real federalist split just to see the BQ score big.

Blues have an uphill climb in Quebec from policy angle and now that they cannot differentiate themselves ethically/morally they are in deep

Me thinks Harper will play another kiss up card and renew Nation issue

If not money is always a good bet but could further antagonize base in West

[Fortunata]

If not money is always a good bet but could further antagonize base in West

The base in the west would vote Con even if a dead horse was on the ballot. As long as it has the Conservative label it is as good as in.

[nothinarian]

The base in the west would vote Con even if a dead horse was on the ballot. As long as it has the Conservative label it is as good as in.

aha - see Preston Manning/Deb Gray - circa 1989 - West are independent lot and remember Harper is from Ontario

Understand Conservative label issue but more conservative and populist tub thumpers have split on right before and could again

[Fortunata]

aha - see Preston Manning/Deb Gray - circa 1989 - West are independent lot and remember Harper is from Ontario

Understand Conservative label issue but more conservative and populist tub thumpers have split on right before and could again

Agreed to a certain extent except Reform had the "conservative" brand as an alternative to Mulroney's corrupt party, which the west wasn't the only region fed up with it as the election results proved.

The west would leave one conservative party for another.

It's kind of ironic that the west blames the east for being sheep putting in the Liberals but, in reality, easterners aren't adverse to changing from liberal to conservative, (i.e. Clark, Mulroney, Harper) when they feel there is a need but the west wouldn't vote anything but conservative to save their lives.

[nothinarian]

Agreed to a certain extent except Reform had the "conservative" brand as an alternative to Mulroney's corrupt party, which the west wasn't the only region fed up with it as the election results proved.

The west would leave one conservative party for another.

It's kind of ironic that the west blames the east for being sheep putting in the Liberals but, in reality, easterners aren't adverse to changing from liberal to conservative, (i.e. Clark, Mulroney, Harper) when they feel there is a need but the west wouldn't vote anything but conservative to save their lives.

Actually west has more of a populist/libertarian history and that is why I believe that as Harper moves to the mushy middle he will alienate the west/populist/former reform/NEP gang - could be wrong in this as he has been adopted by them but Klein or Preston could lead grassroots movement if he doesn't play to his base

[Fortunata]

My aunt is the hardest core conservative I have ever met. She (among many others) voted Wild Rose in this past provincial election. I know provincial is not federal but it proves my point (sorta). Albertans will go conservative of varying degrees regardless of whether the policies are conservative or not (i.e. Flaherty's more liberal than Liberal spending).

[nothinarian]

My aunt is the hardest core conservative I have ever met. She (among many others) voted Wild Rose in this past provincial election. I know provincial is not federal but it proves my point (sorta). Albertans will go conservative of varying degrees regardless of whether the policies are conservative or not (i.e. Flaherty's more liberal than Liberal spending).

Hail Mary and pass the peas on Flaherty

Consservative provincially but I bet she voted for Myron Thompson long before he was a conservative( if he ever became one)