Canadian Political Polls

jbg · April 2, 2008

Given what you are saying, you seem to think that the Tories will win the majority of the seats in Quebec.

I could see them with 20-35; enough to make fewer needed from the Atlantic provinces and Ontario.

Alta4ever · April 2, 2008

Facebook has a very large chunk of adult, voting population.
http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/07/06/faceb...ographic-shift/

I saw nothing in that artical that indicated voting habits of those that use facebook. but the over 35 crowd still makes up less than 50%.

jdobbin · April 2, 2008

I saw nothing in that artical that indicated voting habits of those that use facebook. but the over 35 crowd still makes up less than 50%.

50% is a very large chunk of the overall users on Facebook. Voting habits of those over 35 are obviously higher than those below.

More politicians of every stripe are using networking sites to set up meetings, fundraise and campaign. I believe even Harper knows this even if some in his own party don't.

No one has done a major search of voting trends in Canada and Face book but Facebook and American politics has been studied to death.

http://facebook.mediatrending.com/2008/01/...cs-on-facebook/

Edited April 2, 2008 by jdobbin

Alta4ever · April 2, 2008

50% is a very large chunk of the overall users on Facebook. Voting habits of those over 35 are obviously higher than those below.
More politicians of every stripe are using networking sites to set up meetings, fundraise and campaign. I believe even Harper knows this even if some in his own party don't.

No one has done a major search of voting trends in Canada and Face book but Facebook and American politics has been studied to death.

http://facebook.mediatrending.com/2008/01/...cs-on-facebook/

If facebook is such a great indication why doesn't the NDP have more seats? Why did their popular vote decrease in the last by-elections?

jdobbin · April 2, 2008

If facebook is such a great indication why doesn't the NDP have more seats? Why did their popular vote decrease in the last by-elections?

Don't think I ever made a claim that anyone had ever studied the how the Canadian demographic plays out. I just said that there is a large adult population that does have a Facebook account and does vote. As the U.S. study showed, some of the states with the highest voter turn-out had the most Facebook accounts that also listed politics as a main interest.

As far as why the NDP byelection vote count didn't go up, I attribute it to the Greens, two popular Toronto Liberal candidates, some riding that have traditionally not been great areas for the NDP, a higher Conservative vote count and local issues that play stronger during byelections than general elections.

madmax · April 2, 2008

I didn't see this one previously posted, I apologise if someone did and I missed it.

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/407824

Bad News for the Liberals, Worse News for Dion.

Conservative/NDP stable

Green Vote eating at Liberals.

jdobbin · April 2, 2008

I didn't see this one previously posted, I apologise if someone did and I missed it.
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/407824

I did post this poll in the forums. However, I will add what I also add about Angus Reid polls: I'm still not convinced on online polls and no other major pollster relies on them completely like Angus Reid. I still don't know that the sample from online is sufficiently large enough or random enough.

jdobbin · April 2, 2008

Latest poll from Decima.

http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Canada/200...02/5175791.html

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggests the Tories have 32 per cent support, with the Liberals at 30 per cent.

Still a statistical tie.

Interesting comparing the two polls:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto.../WBwblogolitics

Another great moment:
» Harris-Decima / Statistical Tie

Conservative 32%

Liberal 30%

NDP 13%

Green 12%

Bloc 9%

Pollster Bruce Anderson: "The Liberal brand is slowly, but perceptibly recovering from the trauma of the sponsorship scandal," said Anderson. "NDP voters show increased interest in the Liberals and fewer Conservative voters see the Liberal brand as toxic."

» Angus Reid Strategies / Tories Lead By 10-Points

Conservative 36%

Liberal 26%

NDP 18%

Green 9%

Bloc 9%

Pollster Angus Reid: "There's no question that the Conservatives, now that they feel like they've got Dion cornered, will be doing everything in their power to get an election."

Edited April 3, 2008 by jdobbin

Vancouver King · April 3, 2008

The wild disparity between current polls begs an explanation from the polling companies releasing these numbers. Separate polls conducted during the same period show an 8% difference in govt support. Which pollster has flawed methodology? Are the questions somehow loaded?

Why don't pollsters conduct a poll on polling? Question one: Do you believe in the integrity of political polling? The probable 75% "no" response explains why the question will never be asked.

normanchateau · April 4, 2008

http://www.trendlines.ca/electcanada.htm

Topaz · April 4, 2008

One poll said Canadians didn't like either Harper or Dion. So what does that tell you? Time to replace both?

normanchateau · April 4, 2008

One poll said Canadians didn't like either Harper or Dion. So what does that tell you? Time to replace both?

I think it is time to replace both. If Dion can't rise in the polls above a socon, big-spending authoritarian-type like Harper, it's time to replace Dion.

jdobbin · April 12, 2008

Latest Decima poll.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...12?hub=Politics

OTTAWA -- A new national poll suggests Conservatives and Liberals remain deadlocked with neither party able to muster more than lukewarm levels of public support.
The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggests the Liberals had 32 per cent support to the Conservatives' 31 per cent, which is a statistical tie given the poll's 3.1-percentage-point margin of error.

The NDP were at 15 per cent and the Greens at 12 per cent.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois was ahead with 35 per cent, while the Liberals and Conservatives were tied at 21 per cent, the NDP had 11 per cent and the Greens 10 per cent.

In Ontario, the Liberals were in the lead with 40 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 33 per cent, the Greens at 13 per cent and the NDP at 12 per cent.

Another statistical tie. Liberals are well ahead in Ontario though.

It would appear that the Liberal have benefited from Tom Lukiwski's remarks. Older women in particular have been turned off by the remarks.

However, if we look at the Ipsos poll, the Tories have widened their lead but still fall short of a majority.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAN1220205820080412

The Ipsos Reid poll, published in the CanWest group of newspapers, put support for the Conservatives at 35 percent, unchanged from a poll in March. But support for the Liberals fell to 30 percent, from 32 percent.
Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system, coupled with the existence of three smaller parties, means that it usually takes some 40 percent public support to win a majority in Parliament. The Conservatives have only a minority of seats, and have stayed in power with support from other parties.

The poll showed support for the left-wing New Democratic Party rose to 16 percent from 13 percent, while support for the Greens rose to 10 percent from 8 percent.

The separatist Bloc Quebecois had the backing of 33 percent of Quebec voters.

If we go by the respected Nanos poll, we see this from earlier in the week: a dead heat.

http://winnipegsun.com/News/Canada/2008/04...256456-sun.html

A Nanos Research poll for Sun Media indicates that, nationally, the Liberals and Tories are deadlocked at 36% each among decided voters. But while neither party has sprinted ahead of the other, the numbers clearly show support sagging for the NDP.
Nationally, the party has dropped five percentage points in three months, from 19% to 14%. "That's a significant drop in a short period of time," said Nik Nanos, president of Nanos Research.

NDP support has bled away to the Liberals.

Edited April 12, 2008 by jdobbin

capricorn · April 12, 2008

It would appear that the Liberal have benefited from Tom Lukiwski's remarks. Older women in particular have been turned off by the remarks.

That's a totally misleading statement. The article you linked does not tie the comments to the voting intentions of older women. Here is what it says:

The poll also suggests that Conservatives have taken a hit recently among older voters, older women in particular.
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...412?hub=QPeriod

Polls, polls, polls....which to believe. :huh:

Edited April 12, 2008 by capricorn

jdobbin · April 12, 2008

That's a totally misleading statement. The article you linked does not tie the comments to the voting intentions of older women.

You're right. Looks like older women are turning off on the Tories in general rather than in relation to those specific remarks.

Polls, polls, polls....which to believe.

It is probably the main reason we are not in the middle of an election. Harper threatened last week to go to the polls over what he regards is a logjam in committee rooms. He could have gone to the Governor General and said that he had lost the confidence of Parliament but backed away from that. Similarly, Dion could have brought the government down over the immigration bill.

The NDP keeps thinking they will benefit from voting no all the time but their support has slipped in several of these polls.

The BQ has stabilized in many of these polls which is bad for all federalist polls.

Edited April 12, 2008 by jdobbin

capricorn · April 13, 2008

Looks like older women are turning off on the Tories in general rather than in relation to those specific remarks.

Do you have a source for that? Here is what I found dated March 26, 2008.

Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker notes that the traditional softness of male support for the Liberals has drooped to an alarmingly flaccid state since Mr. Dion became party leader 16 months ago.
The Harper Conservative male-voter lead over the Dion Liberals is now at an almost insurmountable 14 points -- 41% versus 27% for the Liberals.

====

But what's even more sobering for Liberals is that Mr. Harper's negatives are concentrated in young to middle-aged women of lower to middle incomes.

Those approaching retirement or enjoying a $60,000-plus salary tend to side with Mr. Harper, a split decision that keeps Conservatives in a dead heat with Liberals among women voters nationwide.

Mr. Dion, by unfortunate contrast, suffers an "ubiquitous" thumbs-down from men spanning all ages and earning levels, says Mr. Bricker.

The key to a majority mandate for the Conservatives is to win over Metro Toronto women, Mr. Bricker notes, but Mr. Dion needs to recapture male support outside of the cities to have any hope of growing electorally.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=399168

Looks like the vote among women nationally is evenly split between the two main parties.

Looks too like men don't like Dion who has acquired the reputation of a wimp.

jdobbin · April 13, 2008

Do you have a source for that? Here is what I found dated March 26, 2008.
Looks like the vote among women nationally is evenly split between the two main parties.

I was going based on the Decima poll I just posted.

The Tories enjoyed a 10-point lead among voters over the age of 50 through much of last fall but that lead has shrunk to two or three points now. Among women over 50, the Liberals have pulled into a significant lead.

However, this issue has been addressed by many pollsters.

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news...a5-8fc896e0dad2

If they hope to win a majority in the next federal election, Harper's Conservatives will need to discover more women like Schoorl.
Recent polls by Ipsos Reid for CanWest News Service show that support for the Conservatives among women trails support among men by a significant margin.

In four polls through Nov. 26, support for the party among men averaged 42 per cent, compared with 33 per cent among women. In the most recent Ipsos poll, made public Dec. 22, the gap spiked to 15 percentage points. Forty-three per cent of men said they would vote for the Conservatives, compared with 28 per cent of women.

"There really seems to be a very strong gender effect in Conservative voting," said Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker.

Canadian women have shown a reluctance to vote Conservative for some time now, Bricker noted. But it was not always so.

There are other articles on this subject.

Looks too like men don't like Dion who has acquired the reputation of a wimp.

It's true. Dion has had difficulty in winning over men's votes.

There was a larger poll published in the French papers this week.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40th_Canadian_parliament

It is listed under Segma Unimarketing on April 9.

Predictive Model for Predicting Canada seats on the basis of the survey seats in the election 2006
Conservative 130 124

Liberal 116 103

NDP 15 29

Bloc Quebecois 46 51

Green Party 0 0

Other / Independent 1 1

Total 308 308

It predicts, as several pollsters, that the NDP vote is soft and while they predict a Tory government, they also predict a larger Liberal opposition.

Edited April 13, 2008 by jdobbin

Wild Bill · April 13, 2008

Is anyone else finding these polls to be lacking a factor or two? Something's just not adding up to me.

These polls are for public consumption. They don't tend to be very specific as to region or more importantly, seats! I'm sure the polls paid for by the parties themselves are much more focused and would give a clearer picture of the likely seat count from an election.

That being said, if the Liberals and the Tories were truly in a "dead heat" I find it hard to believe that Dion and his crew would be so obviously terrified of an election. If the polls are truly showing that the numbers are not much different than last election then the likely result would be few losses for Dion and the possibility of some gains!

No, Dion would not be caving at every opportunity to bring down the government if his polling information was showing the same likely results as what we are fed from CBCNW and Mike Duffy.

Dion's polling info must not only be much more accurate but far scarier to him! He's acting like he's facing a rout!

We should stop nitpicking through the forest, to mix some metaphors...

jdobbin · April 13, 2008

Is anyone else finding these polls to be lacking a factor or two? Something's just not adding up to me.

I don't think I need to remind you that Nanos (SES) poll in the last election gave almost a perfect reading of the outcome in the election. The overall results of the various polls in the last week of the election, aside from some outliers, were also accurate in predicting a Tory minority government.

These polls are for public consumption. They don't tend to be very specific as to region or more importantly, seats! I'm sure the polls paid for by the parties themselves are much more focused and would give a clearer picture of the likely seat count from an election.

The Hill Times did indeed say that internal polls for both parties predicted a Tory majority as of a few weeks ago based on more directed polling.

That being said, if the Liberals and the Tories were truly in a "dead heat" I find it hard to believe that Dion and his crew would be so obviously terrified of an election. If the polls are truly showing that the numbers are not much different than last election then the likely result would be few losses for Dion and the possibility of some gains!

One could say the same of Harper who threatened last week to go the Governor General because Parliament was not going fact enough for him. He backed off that threat. He can use any premise according to his own legislation on fixed elections to declare no confidence. There doesn't have to be a defeating vote.

Why did he pull back? If all their internal polls say they are ready to go to a majority any time, why not go now? They can't say that they've been able to to put forward all of their conservative wish list as of yet.

No, Dion would not be caving at every opportunity to bring down the government if his polling information was showing the same likely results as what we are fed from CBCNW and Mike Duffy.
Dion's polling info must not only be much more accurate but far scarier to him! He's acting like he's facing a rout!

We should stop nitpicking through the forest, to mix some metaphors...

One of the reasons the Liberals keep pulling back is that they still lack any cogent organization for an election campaign. Quebec Liberals have never wanted Dion at the helm and keep sniping from inside and outside party infrastructure.

Dion has wanted to go to an election for some time now but many in his party seem determined to either:

a ) wait for the issue that will truly deliver a majority to the Liberals or;

b ) wait for Dion to somehow be forced out so that they can put their efforts behind a new leader.

The one trend the Liberals might be hoping to see more of if the decline in NDP fortunes. That was tested out in these last byelections and is reflected in the last polls.

In any event, the idea that Dion is solely responsible for taking Canadians to an election in false. Harper has that power as well even with fixed election dates. He hasn't gone to the GG because even internal polls must be showing that it is too close to call.

Edited April 13, 2008 by jdobbin

capricorn · April 13, 2008

Is anyone else finding these polls to be lacking a factor or two? Something's just not adding up to me.

My thoughts exactly. I liked Fife's observations on QP today about the poll numbers that voters are not engaged in politics right now and there is really no national issue of major concern to command their attention.

We should stop nitpicking through the forest, to mix some metaphors...

But then, look at all the fun we'd be missing speculating on this, that and the other. :lol:

capricorn · April 13, 2008

I don't think I need to remind you that Nanos (SES) poll in the last election gave almost a perfect reading of the outcome in the election. The overall results of the various polls in the last week of the election, aside from some outliers, were also accurate in predicting a Tory minority government.

IMO polls during election campaigns are different than polls between campaigns because voters are not paying as much attention to politics. Once the writ is dropped Canadians tune in.

One could say the same of Harper who threatened last week to go the Governor General because Parliament was not going fact enough for him. He backed off that threat. He can use any premise according to his own legislation on fixed elections to declare no confidence. There doesn't have to be a defeating vote.
Why did he pull back?

It could be that Harper wants to stay at the helm as long as possible to rack up accomplishments and to allow Canadians to become more comfortable with a Conservative government.

One of the reasons the Liberals keep pulling back is that they still lack any cogent organization for an election campaign.
The one trend the Liberals might be hoping to see more of if the decline in NDP fortunes. That was tested out in these last byelections and is reflected in the last polls.

That's a good strategy regarding disenchanted NDP voters defecting to the Liberals. I still sense that fear is the main factor motivating Liberals to stay away from an election at this time. This is playing into Harper's hands.

In any event, the idea that Dion is solely responsible for taking Canadians to an election in false. Harper has that power as well even with fixed election dates. He hasn't gone to the GG because even internal polls must be showing that it is too close to call.

That may be true. I still think Harper wants to gain more brownie points before going to the voters and Dion is assisting him.

jbg · April 13, 2008

One could say the same of Harper who threatened last week to go the Governor General because Parliament was not going fact enough for him. He backed off that threat. He can use any premise according to his own legislation on fixed elections to declare no confidence. There doesn't have to be a defeating vote.
Why did he pull back? If all their internal polls say they are ready to go to a majority any time, why not go now?

Because while technically he could dance around the fixed election law by declaring unilaterally a "loss of confidence" it looks like BS and probably is.

jdobbin · April 14, 2008

IMO polls during election campaigns are different than polls between campaigns because voters are not paying as much attention to politics. Once the writ is dropped Canadians tune in.

I guess Harper should put a stop to the two polls a day that his government commissions on government and political issues. Canadians are not paying attention.

It could be that Harper wants to stay at the helm as long as possible to rack up accomplishments and to allow Canadians to become more comfortable with a Conservative government.

It doesn't seem to have changed all that much the longer he has been in.

That's a good strategy regarding disenchanted NDP voters defecting to the Liberals. I still sense that fear is the main factor motivating Liberals to stay away from an election at this time. This is playing into Harper's hands.

I can remember that five months before the last election there was a Conservative movement to oust Harper as leader. People were saying he couldn't win. Many were angry that he let 19 confidence votes pass by without bringing down Martin.

My guess is that there will never be an ideal time for Quebec Liberals. They'd unlikely be unhappy with Dion even if the Liberals were in majority support in the polls. I think that they just don't regard him as one of their own.

Chretien may be right that the only thing that those particular Liberals know is force. Dion wants to go to an election. My feeling is that he should look into the next weeks to see what will trigger and election and just do it.

That may be true. I still think Harper wants to gain more brownie points before going to the voters and Dion is assisting him.

As I said, there is no evidence to suggest that Harper is pulling away in support.

And given some of the world uncertainty in the economy and fuel and food inflation, there is a strong risk that Harper might take a hit. We've been very lucky so far but there isn't anyone who hasn't noticed the warning signs. The Harper government has tried to blame the Ontario government for some of what is likely to happen but if the pain spreads to other provinces, blaming other governments will be a losing strategy.

Edited April 14, 2008 by jdobbin

jbg · April 14, 2008

One could say the same of Harper who threatened last week to go the Governor General because Parliament was not going fact enough for him. He backed off that threat.

Citation or link for that threat?(link to jdobbin post in question) I'd like to read the article.

Since jdobbin has me on ignore could someone quote this post so he gets the opportunity to answer this inquiry?

Edited April 14, 2008 by jbg

August1991 · April 14, 2008

Is anyone else finding these polls to be lacking a factor or two? Something's just not adding up to me.

The general poll numbers put the Tories at about 36% and the Liberals at about 30% - which is exactly what they both got in 2006.

IOW, if we had an election now, we would wind up with another Conservative minority government. I have to say that all things considered, that's my opinion too.

From Harper's perspective, why we would he want an election now? At present, he can stay in power with the sole support of one of three opposition parties. That's not a bad situation and it's as close to a majority as possible. After an election, Harper may not have such numbers.

From Dion's perspective, he probably has only one kick at the can. For the past few months, he's been making sure that the Liberal organization is more or less ready. (It still isn't but at least the skeleton exists now.) Then, Dion has to pick the right issue. (Side question: If Dion gets more seats in th next election but doesn't make PM, what then? Do the Liberals dump him? I reckon anything but power means Dion is finished. And I think that will be a mistake for the Liberals. I digress.)

-----

With all that said, an election might change the numbers if someone makes a horrible gaffe. In addition, Canada's federal politics are regional and federal polls don't capture regional details. One region that is invisible in federal polls is Quebec outside Montreal. Here, the Conservatives lead the BQ and stand a chance of getting as many as 20-25 seats.

To win a majority, Harper has to improve among women, cities (Mtl, Van and Toronto) and Quebec. I think cities are a write off except maybe some suburbs. Harper has done well in Quebec. He has to improve among women.

I know that Capricorn posted above an article implying that women are split between Liberals and Tories. I disagree (and agree with Dobbin). I don't know why exactly but too many women don't like Harper. Maybe he should invite Oprah to 24 Sussex for lunch or something.