Bryan

I got mine in the mail yesterday, and I immediately did what I always do with the census: I shredded it. The important information that they need is already part of government records in multiple places, I'm not going to participate in this exercise in redundancy.

A person would have to be incredibly stupid to take anything Mallick writes seriously. I doubt that she believes it herself.

The poll I scrutineered at had only 50% of eligible voters show up. It'll be interesting to see if the advanced polls made the difference.

Regardless of who you support, this is going to be one of the most interesting elections to watch in a long time. Both in terms of party support, and polling firms' accuracy.

NDP is 8.2 points behind the CPC on Nanos last day of polling.

Nanos has released their final data, including separating the 3-day rolling polls into individual days. They also doubled their daily numbers on that last day. Sunday, May 01 CPC: 38.7 NDP: 30.5 LPC: 20.9 BQ: 5.0 GRN: 3.7 OTH: 1.3 http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/Closeout-Memo-2011E.pdf

I didn't think Compas was credible either (and I said so earlier in this thread)... until they explained the difference in what their numbers represent. The left/centre-left are the ones who complain that their supporters are greater in number, they just don't bother to vote -- in ever increasing numbers. You don't think that Compas' breakdowns explain exactly that? It also goes a long way to explaining why pretty much all of the pollsters consistently give the CPC lower numbers, and the other parties higher numbers than what they really get on election day. Forget the numbers WRT to possible seat counts. All Compas' data really says is Conservative supporters are less likely to change their mind, and they're more likely to actually vote. That's a concept that has been fairly well represented, we just didn't have hard data to support it until now. You don't think THAT is credible?

Compas has some interesting background on why their numbers differ from the others. They weighted their numbers based on how firm people were in their voting intentions, giving them a 1-7 scale. They not only asked who they preferred, but also how committed they were even voting at all. They were also asked if they could name the people running in their riding. So it's not a pure "who do you like" poll, it's a breakdown of those who are going to vote "for sure". CPC support was simply the most committed. Most CPC favoring respondents were committed not only to how they will vote, but to actually voting at all. Conversely, NDP support is really soft. Most of them were not even sure if they were going to vote at all, could not name their candidate, and admitted that even if they did vote, they were quite likely to change their choice. 79% of people who chose NDP said they are likely to change their mind. Only 39% of NDP supporters can even identify by name their local candidate. http://www.compas.ca/data/110501-FedElectionPoll-EPCB.pdf

I'll be very surprised if they can capture more than 65.

In a whore house owned by a criminal organization trafficking in under age asian sex slaves?

Nobody believes it. Of course he knew. It's a whore house, plain and simple.

You're talking to a person who knows what he's talking about. Doer was a disaster for Manitoba. He took a healthcare system that was strong and virtually destroyed it. Everything his government has touched has turned to shit. Layer after layer has been added to the beaurocracy for no other reason than to do something for the sake of doing it. Welfare roles have more than doubled, family services is a mess, he ran Manitoba Hydro into the ground, and began racking up billions in off the books liabilities long before the recession--all while we had balanced budget legislation. They call our finance minister here a "weapon of math destruction".

Nanos' generally UNDER reports CPC support. His final poll in 2008 had them at 34.2, they got 37.6. (link)

No. They just left the bills unpaid and commitments unmet, and raided billions of dollars off the books. That's not financial management, it's borderline fraud. Martin was an incompetent finance minister, Chretien said so in his book.

Interesting qualifier on those EKOS numbers. ONTARIO VOTE SPLITTING FAVOURS CONSERVATIVES EKOS:

Mike, they all do it. It's a long standing tradition on the eve of the election to sum up the campaign and make an editorial decision on who most "deserves" to win.

A massage "parlour", is a bawdy house. If he says he didn't do anything, I believe him. If he says he didn't know it was that kind of place though...

The left has no problem smearing Harper with things that may have happened in the 90's, but when they get even a little bit of it back in the media they turn around and blame Conservatives. Funny how that works.

You don't care that they proclaim themselves upfront as socialist, but urn around and deride others who are only agreeing with them?

The three most recent polls: Angus Reid: CPC: 37 NDP: 33 LPC 19 http://www.angus-reid.com/ Nanos: CPC: 38 NDP: 29.6 LPC: 23.3 http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110429-BallotE.pdf Ipsos: CPC: 38 NDP: 33 LPC: 18 http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5224 NDP surge has slowed, but they aren't falling back either. Looks like they have eaten the Liberals' lunch for real. CPC support is actually higher now than it was right before the last election.

Have you read their manifesto constitution?

This should be locked for several reasons, not the least of which is there are already several threads with this topic that are discussing it in a more rational way. Defamatory though? Sure, but far less so than the defamation that the lefty forum member on this site perpetrate against harper on an hourly basis. If defamation is a reason to delete a thread, or stop a poster from saying it, there's a LOT of deleting to be done on this forum.

Minorities do work better with better leadership, that's why Harper has lead the longest running minority in history.

What was that YOU said about losing credibility by dismissing polls you don't like?

MacLeans - Innovative Research National... CPC - 38.4% Libs - 24.9% NDP - 23.9% Ontario... CPC - 41.4% Libs - 36.1% NDP - 17% http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/04/27/will-jack-layton-usurp-michael-ignatieff/