Kliege

Looking at the 2 main parties competing with the Conservatives: A.Liberals Most polls show the Federal Liberals with a narrow lead in a 3 way race in the province. There has been one poll (the Compass) poll that showed the Conservatives in front. But, it was based on a sample size similar to all the other polls, and received far too much press attention. The Vancouver Sun/Province pushing stories for the Consevatives? Wouldn't be a surprise. The Liberals obviously started out after Paul Martin became leader fairly strong in B.C, combining their support in the 1990's (around 28% in the 1993, 1997 and 2000 elections) with personal support for Mr. Martin. The Liberals have obviously taken a number of hits that have resulted in a decline in support for the party, but as I said earlier, still narrowly lead according to most polls. But, how would that translate into seats. My guess is that if Paul Martin runs a strong campaign, the Liberals could narrowly win the most number of votes in B.C, but still come easily 3rd in seats. The Liberal vote is far too evenly spread out. In the redistributed 2000 election results, the Liberals received almost as many votes in the urban interior (Kelowna 24.0%) as the semi rural Vancouver Island North (Vancouver Island North 25.0%) as Greater Vancouver (Port Moody-Westwood-Coquitlam 29.4%) These are the only ridings that I see the Liberals as having concentrated enough support to win. 1.Vancouver Centre 2.Vancouver-Quadra 3.Vancouver South 4.Vancouver-Kingsway 5.Richmond 6.Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam (2nd tier race) 7.North Vancouver 8.West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast (2nd tier race) 9.Newton-North Delta 10.Fleetwood-Port Kells 11.Surrey North (2nd tier race) 12.Victoria 13.Saanich-Gulf Islands 14.Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca 15.Skeena-Bulkley Valley 16.Kamloops-Thompson (2nd tier race) B.NDP With NDP support doubling or trippling from the last election, I think you have to look at all the ridings of traditional NDP strength for this election: 1.Vancouver-Centre 2.Vancouver-East 3.Vancouver-Kingsway 4.Burnaby-Douglas 5.Burnaby-New Westminster 6.New Westminster-Coquitlam 7.Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam (2nd tier race) 8.Surrey North 9.Victoria 10.Saanich-Gulf Islands (2nd tier race) 11.Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca 12.Nanaimo-Cowichan 13.Nanaimo-Alberni 14.Skeena-Bulkley Valley 15.Kamloops-Thompson Safe Conservative ridings 1.(South) Delta-Richmond East. The Liberals will likely be competitive in the Richmond part of the riding, but South Delta is very Conservative. 2.White Rock-South Surrey-Cloverdale The Liberals think they have a chance in this riding because the Conservatives have nominated a strong social conservative. But, Cloverdale is very socially conservative. 3.Langley 4.Abbotsford 5.Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon 6.Cariboo-Prince George 7.Prince George-Peace River 8.Kootenay-Columbia (the Kootenays use to be traditional NDP territory, but the Conservative M.P, Jim Abbott, is very popular, also East Kootenay is less of an NDP area than West Kootenay) 9.Kelowna 10.Okanagan-Coquihalla 11.North Okanagan-Shuswap 12.Dewdney-Allouette 13.Southern Interior 14. Vancouver North Island The riding has very different demographics than it had 20-40 years ago. It is a much older more conservative riding due to an influx of older retirees (the stereotype retiree from Alberta has a lot of truth to it). It has been designated as one of Canada's top 3 retirement destinations. This should mean that the NDP can't necessarily look to the past history to say they have a chance in the riding.

Mississauga South The provincial and federal electoral record in this riding indicates that ho-hum, this year as in any other year, this is one of the strongest (Mississauga-Streetsville being the other) real or prospective Tory seat in Mississauga an eternal part of the traditional Lakeshore Road "blue belt" between Toronto and Hamilton. The western lakeshore(Mississuaga South, Oakville, Burlington) is the most affluent area outside the city lots of professional/white caller workers make there homes near the lakeshore the average income is 160000k. But mind that Marland(MPP) defeat last year; it isn't so inevitably, dependably "blue" as it used to be. Multicultural Mississauga's as left its mark here, too and as in Burlington and Oakville, even affluent red-Tory WASPS might still be willing to hold their nose and vote Liberal. (Even though Paul Szabo's probably to the right of *them*.) So, if you want *any* hope that Martin will maintain his 905-belt hold and Harper will remain too hard-right for GTA comfort keep that in mind. But if Mississuaga South goes, the "rural rump" myth of Tories in Ontario is truly busted.

Another Pipe Dream Maple. NDP represents no one but themselves. By the way what riding are you in Maple? Im in Mississauga South, this is one of the high income ridings in 905 so the NDP isn't really a factor here but i expect there vote to go up some.

No Jack Layton is Maple

Now Maple you have gone off the deep end. How is the NDP going to get more seats in Ontario then the CPC? The NDP is only a seriously competitive in only a few ridings those being Windsor West,Windsor-Tecumesh,Toronto-Danforth,Trinity-Spadina,Ottawa Centre, Davenport,Hamilton Centre,Hamilton Mountain,Hamilton East -Stoney Creek Beaches-East York, Sault Ste. Marie and maybe two ridings in the northern area of the province. While the CPC are very competitive and strong in every riding in the 905 region and most of the province those being Carleton-Lanark,Renfrew-NipissingPerth-Wellington Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale Bramalea-Gore-Malton Brampton West Burlington Clarington-Scugog-UxbridgeDufferin-Caledon,Halton,Mississauga-Brampton South,Mississauga-Erindale, Mississauga South Mississauga-Streetsville, Newmarket-Aurora, Markham-Unionville, Niagara Falls, Niagara West-Glanbrook Oak Ridges-Markham, Oakville,Oshawa,Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington Leeds-Grenville, Ottawa South,Parry Sound-Muskoka Elgin-Middlesex-LondonGrey-Bruce-Owen Sound Kitchener-Conestoga Kitchener-Waterloo,Northumberland-Quinte West London West Oxford,Simcoe-North,Simcoe Grey,Wellington-Halton Hills, Prince Edward-Hastings, Ajax Pickering, Richmond Hill, Vaughn, Barrie, Halmiad-Norfolk, St Catherines, South Storemont-Glengarry-Cromwell Right Now the NDP have real possibilty of 6 seats, that could up to 10 but over that now way. Right Now the CPC as a real possibility of 16-24 that could go up into 30-34 range and even higher of the outside chance they form a minority government. All it takes is a CpC Ontario vote of 31-36% and half the ridings are up for grabs, couple that with a strong NDP vote in many ridings and the CPC comes thru the middle to win. Thats the reality Maple

This is a stupid move by the NDP, especially if it seeks to appeal in urban areas. In Toronto alone some properties cost over 1 million, because housing prices have gone up so much in the last 20 years. So this mean if you brought a house in downtown Toronto, during the 60's and 70's that would have cost 90-150k and now would be well overn 1 million, those that you leave your home two would have to pay an Inheritance tax. Always leave it up to the NDP to find new ways to tax. Good thing the NDP have no chance at government or a real opposition. It will forever be a protest party federally. Remember Bob Rae?

NDP support in British Columbia is only in two areas, Vancouver Island and the city of Vancouver itself. I fully expect the NDP to pick up 3 to 4 seats in British Columbia but that is isn't. The CPC will win the overall vote in the province with the NDP second

All of a sudden there is 11 billion dollars for health care that they didn't have a year and a half ago. Remember the Romanow report? What ever happen to Pharmicare? Will Canada be fooled again?

Maple the NDP will never be the main opposition to either a Liberal or Tory government, they are non factors in so many areas of this country that it would be impossible for the NDP to either win a government or become the main opposition. So Stop the Pipe Dream and deal with reality.

The more the NDP vote goes up cross the country the lower the Liberals vote goes down especially in Ontario.

After 11 years of one party rule coupled with the want for some kinda of change, Election 2004 is the first election since 1984 to actually be competitive. For Paul Martin after years of waiting in the shadows the prospect of losing must be frighting, pulled down by the baggage of the past prime minister. He must now fight for his political life, if he loses(even if its a minority government) the knifes will be out for him and the Liberal party, so long this countries governing party will war upon itself of years and years to come. Stephen Harper is very smart, the fact that he was able to erase the damage of Stockwell Day and bring together the Old P.C and the Allience shows some great ability of reason and thought. Underestimate him at your own peril. His main weakness is inability to connect with normal people and a kinda of uncertianty about him. Jack Layton is new, fresh and energetic. His ability to project himself as a beacon of hope and change have transform the chances of the NDP. Layton as made the NDP an urban party and more attractive to younger voters. One of his weakness is that his style can be to showy. There seems to be alot more fluff then substances sometimes. Gilles Ducceppe mostly likely the luckiest man in Canadian political hisotry. Six months ago the future of his party seem to be in doubt, overtaking by Martin the Bloc was on the verge of oblivion and the end of the nationalist movement on the federal level. The Adscam changed all that and new life was brought to Ducceppe and the Bloc. Ducceppe is an old pro, the only leader to still be head of a politcal party from the last two elections. He knows the game and knows how to play it. NDP: I suspect that the NDP will make inroads in its traditional areas. In Toronto they will pick up three or four ridings( Toronto-Danforth, Beaches Est York, Trinity- Spedina and Davenport) in the 905 region there strength will be to the benifit of the CPC, the only seat I see them pickup in that area is Oshawa now that Sid Ryan is in the race. Hamilton is another strong area for the NDP, with resent Liberal fighting in the city one pick up Hamilton Centre looks like a lock, while Hamilton Stoney Brook is somewhat a possiblity, Windsor will send its two MP back to Ottawa and Ed BroadBent will be sent back to the House. Sault Saint Marie is another possible pick up along with one of the two Thunder Bay seats and one of the seats in the Northern area. CPC: Now that the Conservatives are back together they will surely make inroads in Ontario. In the 905 region the party will pick up serveral seats from Newmarket-Aurora, Pickering one or two of the Brampton seat and two to four of the Mississuaga seat, Oakville and Burlington. I wouldn't bve surprise is half the 905 region turns blue on election night. The party will make big gains in the rural seats in eastern Ontario which would still be blue if, vote spliting hadn't took place. The gains in Onatrio for the CPC could be as low as 16-18 seats on a bad night to well over 30 on a good night and the fact that the NDP is doing well throughtout Ontario will only help the CPC in marginal seats were they are not really a factor. This is the one thousand dollar question. My guts say after some many years in power and the people of this country giving them the benifit of the doubt, there time may be up. But this is the Liberal party and they have survived impending death before. But right now, they are on the knife edge. Looks like a minority Liberal government right now, but there are many more days of this election to go. Anything is possible. This will be there fourth election as a political party and it looks like they will be around for sometime to come. I think honesty,taxes, good money management and education should be the top issues. How many elections does Health Care have to be the top issue? It seems election after election this is the main issue and Health Care only seems to gets worst. Yes, they will never get the ride they got in the 1990's. Never again. No more Liberal blank checks. Now they will have to earn are votes and thats Better for Canada. Right now im guessing a liberal minority government, but who nows its still early and so much can happen. Liberal-129 CPC-104 NDP-27 Bloc-48 Im a professional guy 31 years old with 2 kids and a wife living in the 905 region, I was one of the millions that sent Mike Harris to Queen Park twice, but still voted Liberal in the Federal election. But now, im tired of the Liberals and the things they have done for the last 11 years. How many times can you go to the Toronto Waterfront or the Sydeny tar pawns and make the same statements you still last year and the years after that. Im tired of being made of fool of. I will be voting for the Conservertive candidate in my riding of Mississauga South.

Throughtout this campiagn what are the strengths, weaks of the Political leaders and the parties? Will the NDP and CPC make inroades into Ontario? What are the fortunes of the NDP? What are the fortunes of the CPC? Can the Liberals servive? Majority or Minority Government? CPC, NDP or Liberal? The Bloc fortunes have raised in Quebec, does this mean they are on the political scene as a permenant political force? What issues should be focused upon in this election? Have the wheels finally come off the Liberal train? What are your election predictions? Will you vote and if so for whom?

I doubt Martin will be in Coalition with Layton, Layton wants P.R thats the main things he wants.

The leadership debate is going to be so importent in this election.

Windsor West-NDP hold Windsor-Tecumesh-NDP hold Possible NDP Pick ups in Ontario Toronto-Danforth Trinity-Spadina Ottawa Centre Davenport Nickel Belt Hamilton Centre Hamilton Mountain Hamilton East -Stoney Creek Beaches-East York Ottawa South Sault Ste. Marie Rainy River Kenora Thunder Bay--Superior North Parkdale--High Park Timmins--James Bay Thunder Bay--Rainy River Carleton-Lanark-CPC hold Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke -CPC hold Perth-Wellington -CPC hold Possible CPC Pick-Up in Ontario Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale Bramalea-Gore-Malton Brampton West Burlington Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge Dufferin-Caledon Halton Mississauga-Brampton South Mississauga-Erindale Mississauga South Mississauga-Streetsville Newmarket-Aurora Niagara Falls Niagara West-Glanbrook Oak Ridges-Markham Oakville Oshawa Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington Leeds-Grenville Northumberland-Quinte West Ottawa South Parry Sound-Muskoka Elgin-Middlesex-London Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound Kitchener-Conestoga Kitchener-Waterloo London West Oxford Simcoe-North Simcoe Grey Wellington-Halton Hills Its going to be really fun, For the first time since I was able to vote(1994) Canada will have a real election.

am no pundit, far from it, but here's my 2 cents. In the election we will have 4 possible outcomes: Liberal majority. With the Libs polling about 40%, this is a very distinct possibility. In that scenario they lose a few seats in Ontario to the CPC and NDP, a few more to the Bloc but hang on for a 155-165 seat majority. In that case it will be business a usual: a do-nothing, aimless, purely reactive government. Watch for them to kill the Adscam inquiry and probably try to remove Auditor General Sheila Fraser, their most effective critic (the campaign to calumniate Fraser has already started). Liberal minority. If the libs support slips to about 35-36% this will happen. This will be the best outcome for all lefties! With the NDP acting as guard dogs, this may turn out into a decent government, provided they don't go full blast into socialist mode (most Canadians are small-c conservative, no matter their political affiliation). In that latter case they'll pave the way for a CPC majority in 2008. CPC minority. Unlikely, and unworkable. The CPC may get piecemeal support from other parties (like the BQ on provincial rights) but such a gov't won't last long. CPC majority. Very unlikely, but not impossible. If Harper scores a knockout punch on Martin in the TV debates (like Mulroney did to Turner), it could happen. For that to occur the CPC needs to clean up the West, take at least 60 seats in Ontario and a score in the Atlantic. Such a government would bring significant change to Canada but could be hampered by a Liberal-heavy bureaucracy. Now for some predictions. I suspect the Libs will have a bad campaign (the fact they go negative at the start indicates their desperation and lack of focus), but not a collapse. The CPC and NDP will both run strong campaigns, and bumbling, awkward Martin will not look good in the debates. Atlantic: Not much will change there. NL Lib-5 CPC-2 PEI Lib-3 PEI-1 NS Lib-5 CPC-3 NDP-3 NB Lib-6 CPC-3 NDP-1 Quebec: The BQ will score big; Adscam will play a role, but also disenchantment with the Liberal provincial government. BQ-47 Lib-28 Ontario: The CPC will probably take most of the seats won by the provincial Tories in the last election (including my home area, narrowly won by the Libs against the CA in 2000). The Ontario Liberals are already unpopular and the Libs will feel the sting, no matter what the polls say. Lib-73 CPC-24 NDP-9 Manitoba/Saskatchewan: It depends on how a Layton-led NDP sells there. With the provincial legislatures already NDP, I suspect the populist vote may just go CPC. MB CPC-6 NDP-5 Lib-3 SK CPC-11 NDP-2 Lib-1 Alberta: The CPC will be a juggernaut there with local boy Harper at the helm. Goodbye Annie. CPC-28 BC: The hardest to predict! I suspect when the chips are down it will revert to an old fashion NDP-CPC battle, and the Liberals will be lucky to hang on a couple of seats. CPC-22 NDP-12 Lib-2 North: No big changes there. NDP will take Yukon. Lib-2 NDP-1 Totals Lib - 133 CPC - 102 BQ - 47 NDP - 26

Right now, I don't foresee any en masse voting for one political party. I think those days are gone with Jean. With the Conservatives amlost back together again(the Bloc is still around) the election in Ontario will now be competitive, no longer can the Liberals take for granted that they are going to win in rural ontario ridings or take all of the 905 ridings. Those days are finally gone, Democracy in Canada is alive again.

Anyone Remember Bob Rae?

This election we will see if Jack Layton can prove himself. From Martin, Harper and Layton they will have have a choice to prove themselves men of quality.

Michael Hardner is right Paul Martin will still be the prime minister after the election, but with a minority government and judging from the history of minority government they do not last too long, so Canada will mosts likely be back at the polls in a year in half or two, if the liberals get a minority government. The main reason that Martin will still be Prime Minister is because the old P.C party that brought about the 1984 election landslide is not fully back together. Two of the misisng parts are( Reform and the Old P.C) but the Bloc ( found by angry Tory M.P's from Quebec) is still around and ahead in the polls in Quebec. So unless the Conservatives and the Bloc can get back together a Conservative majority or minority government is out of the question.

The NDP vote will certainly go up in this election, but not enough to gain win in many ridings. One of the problems the NDP as is that its support is concontrated in certain areas of the country. In Ontario its in the city of Toronto, in British Columbia its in Vancouver and on Vancouver Island, Manitoba Winnipeg and the maritines in Halifax and the South shore. So while support may go up a few %'s point it will not translate into alot of seats. Its more of a possiblity that NDP votes will allow from the Conservatives to pick up more ridings in Ontario and Western Canada. NDP overtaken the Conservatives: Never NDP allowing the Conservatives to win alot more ridings: Yes

I really don't see the NDP picking up any seats in Quebec. To gains ridings in that province, the NDP would have to take votes away from the liberals which will only allow the Bloc to come up thru the middle and take Liberal ridings on the island of Montreal were the Liberals have their most support. Prediction Bloc 53-57 Liberals 19-25