The people who way that are from Ontario, Toadbrother, because in this province is not- seriously not- politically up to speed. Folks here, for the most part, don't 'get' what's federal, provincial and even municipal/ don't know who is representing them at any of those levels.
(And all my fellow Ontarians can be mad at me for saying that, but it's oh so true. The person who can name their representatives and comment sensibly on them is an extremely rare exception here, not, as in other provinces, the common rule.)
I'm thinking that all of the common wisdom is overstated right now, and that this could be an extraordinary, horrifyingly volatile campaign.
It could end up being a 'virtually no change' outcome, but if it does, it won't be because folks are fully entrenched and almost no one changes a vote, but rather because almost everyone changes their vote and all the switches balance out.
I think those who predict a bad performance from Ignatieff are getting ahead of themselves. He might be crap, but I honestly believe it's too early to tell. We'll have a very good idea by the end of the first week of the campaign, but just now, I don't think so. His potential performance is one of the things that makes this one so very unpredictable. There's a lot of indecision out there, so a lot at stake.
The NDP will lose ground, but NDP leadership will decide whether the support they lose goes to the Liberals or to the CPC. So far, they seem to have chosen the CPC. (Hence some of my disdain for the NDP.)
No real prediction from me yet. I know what I want; what I fear; what I expect, but that's three very different outcomes and all three are well within the realm of possibility. Each is equally a long shot.