CITIZEN_2015

Mulcair stood for principle rather than political manipulation of a sensitive issue which according to reliable reports has caused several attacks on defenseless women in both Montreal and Toronto who were wearing niqab or hijab. In my view it is a cowardly action by a complete coward to attack a defenseless women for what they choose to wear and equally cowardly to try to exploit a situation like this for political gains. I believe 33% for conservatives versus 32% for the Liberals is the correct one. Two recent polls have suggested exact number but same polls showing Liberals rapidly gaining momentum. If this continues then by October 19 they may likely stand at 33% versus 35% likely enough to form a minority government.

Liberal Lead Narrows to statistical tie again (Nanos, October 7th, 6:00 am) Liberals 34.3% conservatives 32.1% NDP 23% http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151006%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf National Ballot – The two way race between the Liberals and the Conservatives continues with the Liberals at 34.3%, the Conservatives at 32.1%, the NDP at 23.0% and the Greens at 4.6% nationally. • Accessible Vote – Asked a series of independent questionsas to whether they would consider or not consider voting for each of the federal parties, 49.7% of Canadians would consider voting Liberal, 41.6% would consider voting Conservative, 40.3% would consider voting NDP, 23.5% would consider voting Green and 27.1% would consider voting BQ (Quebec only)

Liberal-NDP coalition suits me quite well.

Thank you. It appears Angus Reid was the best with average 1% error and EKOS was the worst. Somehow the latter doesn't surprise me though I was hoping nanos comes first, though they too did well with 1.4% error. If we exclude EKOS then they all were within 2% of each other. Nothing like now which is a 10% difference.

Btw, anybody remembers which pollster (Nanos, Ekos, Ipsos, Leger, Angus Reid, Innovative Research, Mainstream Research,,,,,,,) was closest to the actual election results in 2011?

CBC latest poll tracker taking the average of all polls is likely the best and it says: Liberals 32.6% -- 118 seats conservatives 32.3& --- 126 seats NDP 25% -- 92 seats http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html Still 12 days to go and a lot can change in 12 days. Btw, EKOS just released a poll showing a 4.2% conservative lead down from 6.7% last week and down from 9.1% lead from two weeks ago by same pollster. If the 2.5% fall per week continues it will be almost neck and neck on October 19th, a percentage or so Liberals ahead. EKOS poll put NDP and conservatives tied in Quebec at 27.8%!!!!!!, And btw, Nanos is not the only pollster putting Liberals ahead. Also Innovative Research and Leger Marketing recent polls places Liberals ahead.

My assumption is that if there is a general election and a citizen doesn't take a few minutes to vote (unless it is in the middle of a horrible winter storm , not likely in the middle of October or sick with flu or something similar) then she or he doesn't agree with any (None) of the parties or policies put forward. So why 30 to 35% don't vote? All sick with flu that day?

Yes good article. But my guess is that ive-caller telephone tracking poll like Nanos is more accurate than automated telephone calls. You are of course entitled to your opinion and I respect that but it clearly differs with mine that all citizens count even those who don't agree with any of the parties and refuse to vote. What you suggesting is that they have to vote for someone they don't agree with and/or don't like his or her policies in order to be counted!!.

Not to mention that the majority was also achieved with 25% of eligible voters (39% of total voted). I wasn't referring to any particular party just a fact and figure and same scenario I describe could apply to Liberals or NDP forming the government.

The worse part that likely not many realize here is that with 31.6% if they form a government not only they don't have the popular vote (Liberals having 32.4%) but also they have ONLY about 20% of eligible voters agreeing with them or their policies and voting for them as about 30 to 35% do not participate because they don't agree with them (or others). A 20% vote rules over the remaining 80% who did not agree.

What on earth is wrong with these pollsters!! On the same day (October 1st) that Nanos and Innovative Research show Liberal leading by 2% then the same day Innovative Research is showing 8% lead for conservatives. And all claiming margins or errors between 1% to 3%!!!!!. Where do they get their data!!!! Where this 10% difference comes from?

Nanos tracking latest (Released October 6, 2015 6 am) Liberal maintain their lead: Liberals 35% conservatives 31.5% NDP 23.1% http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151005%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf National Ballot – The Nanos nightly tracking suggests that the Liberals and the Conservatives are the top choices for Canadians. Thirty five percent of Canadians supported the Liberals while 31.5% supported the Conservatives, 23.1% supported the NDP and 4.6% supported the Greens nationally. • Accessible Vote – Asked a series of independent questions for each party as to whether they would consider or not consider voting for that the party, the Liberals have the highest level of accessible voters 50.7% while the proportion of Canadians that would consider the NDP has dropped nine percentage points over the past month from 50.2% four weeks ago to 40.9% now. For the Conservatives, 40.5% of Canadians would consider voting for them while 23.4% of Canadians would consider voting Green

Poll tracker for CBC is likely the most reliable. Still a tiny minority conservatives even though Liberals get the most popular vote but Liberals are up 1.5% since last poll while conservatives steady confirming other polls. Poll averages Which parties are gaining or losing support? To provide the best estimate of current voting intentions, the Poll Tracker combines data from all major public opinion polls into a weighted average. According to the latest data: Liberal Party 32.4% The Liberal Party leads with 32.4% support. Liberal Party +1.5 The Liberal Party had the largest change, up 1.5 points since the last poll average calculations. http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html Liberals 32.4% and - 118 seats Conservatives 31.6% and - 122 seats NDP 25.3% and - 96 seats This poll average is for October 4 (yesterday). Likely a bit out of date but confirming upward movement for Liberals. I will look at the Nanos overnight poll for tonight due to be released at 6:00 am tomorrow. I like to see the influence of TPP, if any.

If interested read more about Iran today, specifically its society, education levels. youth and its feminist movements.

Yes sure this is the link by Nanos tracking released this morning, October 5. http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/liberals-emerging-with-lead-ndp-sliding-conservatives-steady-nanos-tracking-1.2595031 Harper and Trudeau tied as preferred PM, Mulcair slides to third The latest tracking by Nanos Research for CTV News and the Globe and Mail shows Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau tied on the preferred prime minister measure. Meanwhile, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has slid to a distant third. The latest numbers, which were released Oct. 5, show: 31.1 per cent of respondents named Harper as their preferred prime minister 30.2 per cent preferred Trudeau 20.7 per cent preferred Mulcair 10.4 per cent were unsure Survey respondents were asked: "Of the current federal political party leaders, could you please rank your top two current local preferences for prime minister?" The results show the race between Harper and Trudeau has tightened up following the final French debate on Friday, while Mulcair's numbers have slid.

It remains to be seen how the TPP affects the polls in the next couple of days. It is possible that it may move conservatives somewhat higher in the polls but if the move from NDP to Liberals continue, the gap of 4 to 5% between the two leading parties may remain.

Btw, Harper and Trudeau are now statistically tied as the preferred Prime Minister. The latest numbers, which were released Oct. 5, show: 31.1 per cent of respondents named Harper as their preferred prime minister 30.2 per cent preferred Trudeau 20.7 per cent preferred Mulcair 10.4 per cent were unsure

Liberal lead is maintained - October 5, 6:00 am Statistical tie between Liberals and NDP in Quebec. Trudeau's message of jobs and economy rather than niqab seems to be working...... NANOS TRACKING RELEASED OCT. 5, 2015, 6 AMNanos Nightly Election Tracking Highlights (3-day tracking ending October 4) - Liberals emerging with lead in national election race, Conservatives steady, NDP slide National Ballot - The trend on ballot preferences is currently favouring the Liberals while the Tories remain steady and the NDP registered a decline for the tenth night in succession. Support for the Liberals stands at 35.6% followed by the Conservatives at 31.0%, the NDP at 22.8% and the Greens at 4.7%. Quebec Race - The complexion of the race in Quebec is also starting to shift. From a high of 50% support at the beginning of the campaign the NDP have slid to 30.1% and are statistically tied with the Liberals who registered 28.1%. The BQ and Conservatives are tied for third with 20.4% (BQ support) and 17.4% (CP Support) respectively in Quebec. Nik Nanos - Full charts and methodology

Liberal 126 Conservative 112 NDP 98 BQ 1 GRN 1

Wow!!!. Thank you for clarifying this. I was suggesting a fact based campaign strategy for Liberals which millions of lives have been and will be likely affected similar to the niqab strategy which unlike the economy affected only two people and adopted by conservatives as their strategy in order to rise in the polls.

Ask the jobless how good is the economy or the graduating students who find it so hard to find jobs in their fields or the seniors who have to cut in essentials like food and medicine to pay for rising costs or those who live on social assistance or millions of children who live below poverty and the list goes on. May be everything is great for you and me but millions others who are suffering financially are our fellow Canadians too. But if you prefer to put your head in the sand and deny the facts and figures and feel everyone is financially well and happy then that is your right to be as the song says "don't worry and be happy".

Yes I agree too even though three different polls showing the Liberals in slight lead but as I mentioned there are others which indicated a large conservative lead not long time ago. I hope we see continued lead for Liberals in the polls in coming days by most if not all polls. Liberal campaign ads should............... In my view the Liberal ads should be directed to the dis-satisfy middle class which constitutes a large portion of Canadian population and address their issues. The ads should ask the middle class if they are better off today financially than they were 9 years ago? and then follow by a statement or promise by Trudeau that he is going to make it better for them. Those whose salaries are frozen and those whose rise in salaries haven't kept up with the huge increases in prices for everything other than electronics and computers. It should be directed to the jobless encouraging them to vote for a party which would try to created jobs for them by infrastructure spending. And it should be directed to students whose tuition fees have increased so much past decades that they have to pay back debt for years and decades after graduation. That is if they are lucky enough to find scarce jobs available under the conservatives. They should also point out loud and clear that now they are the only party who can stop the conservatives from forming another government to appeal to soft NDP voters.

EKOS poll is 5 days old. A lot has happened since September 29 including fading of niqab thing in the mind of voters and the reality given by Trudeau that niqab does not bring bread and butter to the tables of Canadians. Not to mention some fierce comments on barbaric cultural practices a couple of days ago by conservatives.. Nanos findings that Liberals are leading also echoed by Innovative Research (October 1st, liberals leading by 2 points) and Leger Marketing (September 30. Liberals leading by 2 points followed by Nanos October 2nd and third indicating a lead by Liberals again but double what shown by others (by 4 points).

Liberals will get NDP on board relatively easy though they may have to slightly modify their plans. Hopefully the move to Liberals will continue and there will be no need for change of promises they are making. They are less than 5% away from forming a majority according to latest NANOS poll and two weeks to go in the campaign. That said it appears to me that EKOS and FORUM favoring the conservatives (flirting with a majority) and NANOS favoring the Liberals (flirting with a majority). In two weeks time we will know which one is right.

You mean those recently acquiring citizenships or new citizens voted for Harper conservatives? Not sure how accurate this assumption is. I personally doubt it not to mention that they mostly come from regions where governments lie. Hardly they believe what governments say.