cannuck

Putting this in Federal politics, as I think it shows our lack of Federal co-ordination Really good article from NYT. Not sure you can read without subscription, but worth a try to see if you can link: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/germany-coronavirus-death-rate.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200405&instance_id=17362&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=100982531&segment_id=23916&te=1&user_id=2a3e757b2285568cc6aee5465e9acea4Bottom line: they do a LOT more testing, have since day one (all free). They initiated tracking and contact of potentially infected fairly early (as did South Korea even better) and they do testing at day 5 to 7 and take those with indications of potential severe prognosis into ICU at that point, probably straight to a ventilator. Other BIG deal? They have enough ICU capacity to do that.Result is pretty much the lowest death rate of any country. Part of that is that those who might SEEM to be asymptomatic are recorded as confirmed, putting their infection rates very high (4rth in the world) - thus showing such a good survivability rate - but not to dismiss their excellent record of treatment.

I believe you are correct, but it was the BC section that cost one life per mile.

It was not a matter of making more money because of the cheap labour in China, it was a matter for most of staying in business. THAT falls straight into the hands of consumers. We the Great Unwashed wanted all of the cheap shit coming into Wallyworld for less than a half or quarter of what those few foolhardy Canadian companies were producing to compete - and with our disfunctional business investment climate and priveleged, wildly expensive labour we simply can not compete. The solution was very simple - and this spreads across several governments and every party in North America: if you couldn't reach some sort of quality, public safety and employee human rights standard, you (i.e. China and much of SE Asia) could not import to our countries. Instead, we the consumer rapidly turned on our nationalistic heals and globalized like a typical trailer park family and gobbled up the poorest quality in exchange for the greatest quantity - and millions of Canadian jobs in tens of thousands of businesses. And, on top of it all: our enthusiasm to immitate the failing experiment in Casino Capitalism from the United States, we now have businesses owned by finance and run by snot-nosed Bschool brats who haven't got a clue or any experience on what actual BUSINESS is, only to make the kind of quarterly results that they need to advance their career and satisfy their Wall Street and Bay Street bosses. You get this by pissing on your more expensive, higher quality and fully accountable supply chain in country and competing with WalMart for the cheapest, shoddiest supplies (including medical supplies, to stay with this thread). With any luck (unlikely), we could come out of the economic side of the Wuhan Virus with a far better understanding of what we NEED to be as a country and economy with our own national interests at the center.

One thing is consistent with today: we need Chinese to do the work, since we can't get off our ass and perform.

It is a small world indeed. Last night, I was asked to review some filtration information, and it was for a Euro brand of 3 layer surgical mask. It was their technical advertising literature, and in it they claimed that their mask would block . Everything I have found about Wuhan Virus is that it ranges from 0.06 microns to 0.14 microns in diameter. Most commercial medical masks are aimed at 0.3 micron cutoff. These Euro masks were claiming to trap down to 0.027 (not credible) and that WuVi is 0.03 microns - contrary to a lot of extremely credible electron microscope data. This was an FFP3 mask, but I seriously no longer trust anything I am reading about masks, unless it is an independent test of same. Many of the N95 masks use an aluminum nose clip to try to seal the big gap around you schnauz, but the "miracle mask" is a flat cloth (polypropylene fiber core laminate). I have always assumed that the masks were primarily to protect the patient from the medico but a large percentage of masks have exhalation valves, so would not do diddly squat for the people nearby. The classic, most common seems to be a 3M 1860 is a no valve cup mask with nose clip to limit leakage, but you can quickly see that ALL of these paper masks are not going to seal all that well. I remain on the fence about the mask thing. I do agree, they can't really do any harm (except in very unusual cases). BTW: if you were wondering: a 3M 1860 cup mask comes out of the manufacturer's factory (3M contractor) for 2.34 Euro/ 2.52 US/3.18 Cdn. The 'miracle mask" sells for 0.69 Euro/0.74 US/1/03 Cdn. Heard some senior medico in Boston this morning saying that masks (assume 1860 or equiv, hopefully not flat masks) are costing them $5!!!! The price gouging never seems to end.

1. Yes, viral loading contributes to severity of infection. Still doesn't make it fatal (I think it accelerates progress) but usually it takes some other compromise to do the worst. I am not the bio-guy, but my kids are, as are several friends. I believe it is the auto-immune like response to Wuhan Virus that compromises immunity and allows other conditions to succeed or heavily contribute. Still trying to get my mechanical mind to wrap around those things. 2. No cough is "dry". Yes, less "wet" but every cough and sneeze aspirates a LOT of liquid, and it is these tiny liquid droplets (of a "dry" cough) that are so light (and contain CoV) that can stay airborne for a few HOURS. Low dose, but kind of beyond the simple 2 M distance when it comes to risk. The ultimate safe requirement would be 2 meters UPWIND for at least 3 hours. A person totally asymptomatic could become a carrier, never have any such idea and go on to infect someone even though they were only lightly dosed from their dry cough encounter. The sick or dead person at the receiving end doesn't really care how minor the carrier's infection was. 3. Yes, a P100 with I forget which cartridge right off hand (bought some time ago). Of course, it is the rubber seal that is the reason to do so. 4. That is really interesting but completely speculative as to efficacy. If you will allow me to take the words right out of your mouth (or the strokes off of your keyboard)> all irrelevant since we don't have any.

IMHO, it is exactly the same risk as a poor fitting (i.e. any and all paper and/or cloth) mask. The big gobs (relatively speaking, excuse my convenient use of the language) will land on the cloth of whatever you are wearing but the very small particles and droplets will simply blow by. On top of that, if the cougher/sneezer was infectious, you now have a surface highly contaminated that will be subject to transfer to their surroundings while still wet, and possibly to emit live virus if the moisture is dried and someone strikes the area. BTW: just to make you (and my wife) happy: I wore my 3m commercial re-useable mask today. Wanted to get another pair of appropriate cartridges, but you can't even find them on their website!!!!

When you cough or sneeze inside of the mask, the large globs of sputum will carry on to the mask. The very fine spray can escape the leaks at high velocity (they are small and will get dragged into the high velocity jet of the leak. Essentially reduces the large drops but still releases the small ones. BUT: the loss of our supply chains to globalization is well noted and agreed. It goes a lot deeper than masks.

It MIGHT be, and for that reason, I would not discourage use. However, in my technical, logical world, it is more of a vain effort than a probable benefit. Bottom line is: I don't get to make the laws of physics, I just have to live by them.

wearing a SEALED mask might be, wearing one that leaks not as likely. Paper and cloth masks do not seal.

1. You are editorializing. I did not say nor infer that only professionals should do this or do that, but that professionals advise against such things with fatal outcome such as using tobacco, drugs, alcohol to excess and driving while impaired or distracted, yet we do all of those things in HUGE excess. 2. Once again, you are editorializing what I said. I clearly stated that there was too much "noise" in the data to be conclusive, not that they did not contribute to outcome. 3. I think sick care professionals wear masks in the OR or exam rooms to protect the patient, not the practicioner. I also believe that they are educated in and live in a culture of bio-science, not filtration science and technology. I can agree that mask are not a bad idea because of lack of data, but I can guarantee you that a non-sealing mask is just that: false hope EXCEPT for largish droplets for the time until the water evaporates.

1. You are editorializing. I did not say nor infer that only professionals should do this or do that, but that professionals advise against such things with fatal outcome such as using tobacco, drugs, alcohol to excess and driving while impaired or distracted, yet we do all of those things in HUGE excess. 2. Once again, you are editorializing what I said. I clearly stated that there was too much "noise" in the data to be conclusive, not that they did not contribute to outcome. 3. I think sick care professionals wear masks in the OR or exam rooms to protect the patient, not the practicioner. I also believe that they are educated in and live in a culture of bio-science, not filtration science and technology. I can agree that mask are not a bad idea because of lack of data, but I can guarantee you that a non-sealing mask is just that: false hope EXCEPT for largish droplets for the time until the water evaporates.

1. You are editorializing. I did not say nor infer that only professionals should do this or do that, but that professionals advise against such things with fatal outcome such as using tobacco, drugs, alcohol to excess and driving while impaired or distracted, yet we do all of those things in HUGE excess. 2. Once again, you are editorializing what I said. I clearly stated that there was too much "noise" in the data to be conclusive, not that they did not contribute to outcome. 3. I think sick care professionals wear masks in the OR or exam rooms to protect the patient, not the practicioner. I also believe that they are educated in and live in a culture of bio-science, not filtration science and technology. I can agree that mask are not a bad idea because of lack of data, but I can guarantee you that a non-sealing mask is just that: false hope EXCEPT for largish droplets for the time until the water evaporates.

Job #1 is to address the ultimate question of population. If you want to tread lightly on the environment, you need to reduce the number of feet stomping our future into the ground. IMHO this would be a nice and potentially sustainable 1-2 Bn planet. Problem is: WHO (and I sure don't mean World Health Org) is going to take on the challenge? I don't think this is going to be the disaster that we need to start people re-thinking our whole way of life. If you look at our economies: we function mostly on the concept that Casino Capitalism must re-distribute wealth without any regard whatsoever to creating wealth and a sustainable PRODUCTIVE economy. We SHOULD have started to correct our errors in 2008/9, but instead, we got "too big to fail" and abrogation of any control over banking/finance by government.

I think some of the problem is that the electronic media lives and dies by ratings. Once one seized onto an idea/story, the rest just flock to the scene and blather away asking the same people the same questions over and over and over. Ask enough people enough questions and you can sensationalize paint drying. I have the great good fortune to know medical people in Canada, China and UK, and try to get a good read from them. What seems to be a common theme from them is that the Wuhan Virus is not very well understood, and might well mutate faster than we can do vaccines (many Corona virus already familiar due to influenza, SARS, MERS, etc.) and re-infect. Contributing to the overall mania is the fact that the medical community does not yet know very much about the Wuhan virus. What scares my UK friends is that their culture is extremely social/sociable and if you clamp down too tight too soon, there might be some kickback at the wrong time. Further, unlike our rural way of life (I speak from my own perspective here) they don't HAVE the food storage facilities in home for long term isolation.

My wife normally keeps a very large inventory of food in freezers and storage room (I never could figure out why, but some things you are just better off not to ask) so we are good for probably a month. Clearing freezers as we go, lots left (2nd week for us now). Big Kid brings us milk and groceries we have ordered. Packaged stuff is just left outside for 3 days if it won't freeze or thaw. Milk, for instance, is put onto dissinfection pad and wiped down with isopropyl alcohol and left to air dry for a while, then into fridge. Issue I have is realizing that we are still in relatively low risk level, trying to get inventories high enough to go through an entire month of TOTAL isolation when things get really bad (which they will in a few weeks). #1 son-in-law is a firefighter/EMT and I am on emergency callout 24x7 so chances are quite high that we may have to isolate away from home, but I have an empty condo that does not share any air handling with building and we will use that if need be. Our youngest is a veterinary ER/trauma surgeon in only 24 hour ER in her region, so she is extremely exposed. They are finding it difficult to keep PPE in sufficient supply, but so far, so good. It may drive you crazy, but a high level of vigilance might well keep you alive. Not paranoia, but not complacency. Needs some kind of balance.

You are welcome...but in the morning rush, I neglected to mention that it would be the very small droplets of water that are most easily aspirated through a leak (Bernoulli's principle) and THOSE very small droplets can stay in the air for up to 3 hours. (on edit) for Boges: it is those very small aerosolized particles that are potential source of infection from the air, long, long after the sneezer has vacated. Granted, much lower potential virus loading then some touch transfer might be, but still a vector.

1. I could list off about a million things "ordinary" people do in spite of being told constantly and consistently by professionals not to do so. Not arrogance, reality. 2. You are once more making an assumption that is is/was wearing of masks that resulted in the outcomes of Asian countries. There are many, many differences in what happened so as to render that as yet another factor that can not be separated from the noise in the data. 3. Masks are not likely protection FOR an individual, but protection FROM them to some degree. It might catch SOME of the water borne virus within a cough or sneeze. Unfortunately, to be at all effective, a mask has to actually seal to the face of the wearer, and that means clean shaven and rubber seal, plus eyes fully shielded. If a mask leaks around the edges (which EVERY paper/cloth mask will) the lower resistance to flow and higher velocity at the leak will aspirate the smallest of particles and project them out of the leak - exactly what you do NOTwan to do. It then needs a cartridge that guards 100% at 0.1 microns, and if you have ever been around filtration you would know that is an extremely rare and unlikely thing to be able to do (again, this applies to free virus particles, not those contained in water droplets.)

UV is line-of-sight only. The polypropylene fiber in the mask can "hide" most of its surface area from UV. Simply heating the mask above 56C actually does the job. Not sure of the time above critical temp required, but any bio guy can figure that out.

That is actually a very good article, but you have cherry picked what you want to see vs. what was written. Note in you highlighted line, the conclusions supporting efficacy are based on simulations, not real world stats. It makes assumptions that are not borne out by studies of the workplace, thus one must conclude the assumptions are incorrect and the study's conclusions are not conclusive. It IS true that a mask can catch droplets, but when the water dries, they could release the virus that could then EASILY pass through any practical mask to the other side, or be released to the atmosphere if on the outside. It also - as is mentioned in the link - can lead to over-confidence leading to greater exposure. Also worth noting that most masks don't cover eyes, another important path for the pathenogen.

Brushing up on 'em as we speak...or write.

Yeah, I think I will apply for a position with WHO when I retire the rest of the way. I hear the corruption kickbacks there will be better.

There IS a valid, proven serological assay that is in use to do just that. Read a paper on it a few days ago (awaiting peer review). Also, CDC is developing something similar. What makes it tough is that the COVID-19 virus is very, very close to SARSCoV1 and SARSCoV2.

Had a long talk with my good friend in UK who is prominent guy in the NHS. He said at 95% ECU saturation (in Manchester area) is breaking point for them, but at 87% and climbing fast, they are still coping. His business partner is in China working on vaccine, so he gets some really current news. His big worry is not the breakdown of the NHS from current situation, but the fact that nobody yet knows if this thing can re-infect. I don't care what "ists" one listens to, reality is that if you DON'T slow down the transmission rate (and there is really only one way to do that right now...lock down since people won't self isolate in sufficient numbers) you will swamp the medical system wherever you are. What happens then? Look to Italy: essentially the "death squad" horror story of bureaucrats forced to make the "who lives, who dies" decisions that nobody wants to be forced to make, and even more don't want to be on the receiving end of such a decision.

I he using them for Wuhan COVID masks? I could care less about the monarchy, their reputation, their activity, etc. If Harry wants to duck out of it, I think we at least owe him the same immigration options as any middle east terrorist or Jamaican gang banger.