Derek 2.0

Again, it goes back to context.......Trump now has 17 delegates, compared to the 15 held by the "establishment" and 10 held by Cruz.....of a possible 2472, of which 1237 are needed to win the nomination..........Rubio, with a 3rd and 5th place finish is only 10 delegates behind Trump, and three behind Cruz. ----------- As noted, South Carolina is winner take all (50 delegates), and both Cruz and Trump are already launching attacks on each other.......what isn't mentioned though is that Bush has a solid ground game there, family roots (Barbara grew-up there), an endorsement from Senator Graham and that the Bush people (see family) are in talks with Gov. Haley seeking an endorsement........which many thought would go to Rubio......... So a Bush win in SC would change the tone of the race, and though marginal in terms of delegates, would be a bonus going into Super Tuesday.......I just don't see how Trump, outside a still heavily divided "mainstream", does well in the South, and especially Texas.

And that goes back to Super Tuesday, namely the South and Texas....where Bush should do well.

And that is the point........it will come down to money, attrition and ground game.........I think with Rubio's crappy debate performance, it goes back to Bush......I know he's had his mom out stumping, maybe its time to wheel out Dad, big brother and Lord Vader....

Yet Trump's ceiling to date is ~1/3rd of the party.......

Right, but if the race goes down to the convention, stepping on too many toes might not be a smart play.

I tend to agree, I still think he would make a good name for the bottom of the ticket though........I think Kasich's moderate tone would do wonders as head of the Senate.

To get through March 1st, I think you can count on Trump, Bush, Rubio, Cruz and now Kasich being able to get there........March 2nd should see the GOP body bags start filling.

But lets put Iowa and New Hampshire in context with Super Tuesday, and Texas in particular........looking at just Texas on March 1st, a 4th place finisher in the Lone Star State could grab more delegates then the winner of Iowa or New Hampshire......at the end of the day, there are two more races until Super Tuesday, South Carolina and Nevada.......if you combine these four races, you get about as many delegates as Georgia and Tennessee, only but two States on Super Tuesday......... ---------- It sounds like Christie is finished, I would expect him to endorse Bush. ----------- Kasich is almost broke, but I'd expect him to find some more backers with his 2nd place finish.....might be worth it for him to not spend too much time in South Carolina, and start looking to Mid-West and Northern Super Tuesday States....... --------- Rubio needs to salvage his run to make it through to Super Tuesday or will start bleeding money and support..... -------- Cruz and Trump? I expect them to go at each other over winner takes all South Carolina...... And Trump.......Bush needs Trump to meet his Alamo in Texas and the South on Super Tuesday

Where does he get additional support? As it stands, I only see Trump gaining Cruz's vote share if/when Cruz drops out and endorses him.....which I doubt he would do.

Trump is "winning" with only 1/3rd of the GOP vote (what appears to be his ceiling), due to the divided mainstream/moderates (that makeup nearly ~ 45-50% of the GOP vote) spread over Bush, Rubio, Kasich and Christie (and Fiorina) ........once the field starts to drop off, I'd expect one of the moderates to win the nomination.........Bush, of them all, has enough money to go all the way to the convention. ---------------------- With tonight's results, it looks like the GOP circus will move onto South Carolina......maybe less a Christie and Carson?

I wouldn't be so sure.....Trump won the Republican primary tonight with ~1/3rd of the GOP vote, in a State that allows independents (and those switching parties) to vote.....

Exactly and would hand swing States (Florida, Ohio etc) to the Republicans, and could make Blue States Purple.......it would be a huge Republican win. Inversely, Bloomberg doesn't stand a snowballs chance in hell in the Republican States, namely the South, Texas and the fly-over States.

It would split the center-center left vote, giving "swing States" to the Republicans, well making the Republicans competitive in traditionally Democrat held States.....hence, it would see the Republicans win hands down, and that would help Trump (assuming he wins the Republican nomination).

As I said above, a three-way Sanders/Clinton vs Bloomberg vs a Trump equals a Republican win.....as Bloomberg, based on his stances on social issues and gun rights etc would take more voters from the Democrats then the Republicans, allowing the Republicans to cinch purple States and pair off blue States.

Because Bloomberg's stances on policies mimic a center left Democrat and would split the vote........The Republicans could win with Ted Cruz.

Bloomberg = a GOP win.......I hope he enters the race too....and so does Trump.

Replace Palin with Grey Davis or Ric Perry then.......point still stands. Bloomberg would be to the Democrats, what Perot was to the Republicans in 1992...

How is that? Less than half of US Presidents were Governors prior, with more coming from Congress and the Senate.........for every Reagan, FDR and Jefferson, there is a Lincoln, JFK, Truman and Jackson coming from the Congress or Senate (or both in the case of JFK)...... I think the point, and to answer Kimmy's question, is that it depends on the individual...........well also noting that both George Washington and Ike, had no prior experience in elected office.........

By that measure, Palin would make a better President than Clinton, Sanders, Rubio or Cruz.....

Interesting poll: Furthermore: Granted it is only one poll, but it could be quite interesting to see the backlash the Trudeau Government would see if they do change the voting system without the input of Canadians first.

I think tonight's results will decide who moves on......I think Carson and Christie are on thin ice and could be gone after tonight, likewise Kasich if he doesn't finish in the top three.....Bush will move on regardless, his bank account mirrors a small nation, and I can't see him (or Rubio) giving up before Florida. I agree.

As do I, and further to his point, there should be no doubt that a Clinton administration would be a continuation of Obama's policies. Right, and though it didn't make for good tv, and I thought it would hurt via media soundbites, let's look at the context......Rubio's slight here is that he used talking points in hammering home his (above) point in response to Christie...as opposed to attacking him.....what politician doesn't use talking points (including Christie)? As to his experience, ala the first term Senator moniker, again, that too has to be put into context.......he spent nearly a decade in the Florida House of Representatives, including a term as majority leader.....when you add that experience to his US Senate experience, he's held elected office, writing and passing laws and budgets etc, for ~15 years.......a period of time in elected government longer than the majority of the current GOP field, including Christie's tenure......all before his 45th birthday.

A new poll, conducted before and after the debate....on the live broadcast, it was explained that ~25% of the poll was after the debate, and of that percentage, there were no drops in support for Rubio.......but no movement for Christie.....I guess breaking Reagan's 11th commandment didn't help him.... It still goes back to the moderate/mainstream camp's vote splitting to knock Trump off.

That didn't take long: THAAD is a land based system, that could be deployed within weeks, that the South Koreans (and Japan) have been in talks of acquiring for years......amazing how fast this North Korean test sped up talks.........I'd still expect both South Korea and Japan to continue with talks over acquiring ABM capability for their navies.

I don't know that tearing up, but warming the cockles for sure: and In addition, damn near anything from a Highland pipe and drum band, and a instrumental cover of Rod Stewart's "Sailing" performed by the Royal Marine band service.......its really moving, and was used by the BBC for an intro to a Doc series from the 70s called "Sailor", and due to its popularity (and nostalgia) has become a common part of their repertoire to this day.