Derek 2.0

Does Cruz have the money to make it to the convention? I know he has (well his wife has) deep pockets, maybe deeper than the Bush family, but I'm not sure how much of their own money they're spending.........furthermore, the longer Carson stays in the race (even in the basement) it takes votes away from Cruz, and in tight races with Trump, could be the difference....if Cruz looses a bunch of tight races, donors won't be as forth coming with the cash........

I'm sure all sorts of backroom "games" will be played during a brokered convention.....

If the House Armed Services Committee grants a waiver to go down to 9 air wings, the USN's legacy Hornet shortages should be partially, if not fully, addressed.......

Trump and Cruz, combined, don't represent the majority of the party, hence, wouldn't receive the nomination.......until this changes, they are just as much pretenders.

Trump and Cruz will be at each others necks in South Carolina.......as of now, both have adds out against the other.

Though I think Bill Kristol is trustworthy, I'll wait until an official poll is released......with that, from your link, the rumor says its not from a campaign team.

What poll is that? The latest polls I've seen for South Carolina were taken nearly a week before Iowa........

You suggested gay rights/immigrants weren't a political issue back then.......Reagan never supported gay marriage, unlike Bloomberg today, yet that doesn't mean Republicans then, like now, are "anti-gay" or "anti-migrant", and their positions are far more nuanced then you suggest. All Democrat "hot button issues" are social issues.......issues, like Republican issues, that are important to differing voters. No.

Interesting slant on history....... How is that? "Hot button issues" are used by both sides, like any other democratic country.......as most people are single (or very few) issue voters. No, that is simply a reflection of a portion of the voting public that consider those issues important.

The Bush family's network in the State.......The one good thing Trump has done for Jeb, is that with his constant attacks on the family (name), he's allowed Jeb to stop running away from his name (which I think was one of his biggest mistakes from the start)........His 90 year old mother going to New Hampshire brought a tiny bit of life back into his campaign (and maybe some backbone into Jeb, based on the last debate)........"W" will be stumping for Jeb in South Carolina (W has already released a TV/radio add)........"W" is still very popular in the State and the South...... The South Carolina primary could very well be Jeb's Fort Sumter.....in that he loses the State to Cruz and/or Trump, but it becomes a rally cry for moderates/mainstream going into Super Tuesday....

I can see it.....there are a lot of evangelicals in South Carolina, that like Iowa, should flock to Cruz (more so now that Carson in a non-factor)......With Bush, I think a 2nd or 3rd place with Trump in the other spot.......nearly 25-30% of South Carolina are serving or retired military, which tend to support the Bush brand, and I think will be skeptical of Trump.

And the FBI have since backed off.........listening to the live stream, a gaggle of supportive of Western State senators and Rev Billy Graham's son (Franklin Graham) are meeting them in the morning and they will surrender the refuge and themselves.

As much as I like Kasich, even suggesting him as a potential VP before he entered the race, he doesn't have the support among Southern/Texan Republicans to win the nomination.....that's not to say he's not spoiling for the bottom half of the ticket though. The Republicans have never won the White House without the support of Ohio, so I expect the remaining GOP runners to treat Kasich with reserved respect. ---------- Going into South Carolina, its two separate races......Trump vs. Cruz and Bush vs. Rubio vs. Kasich. I expect Trump and Cruz to both finish in the top three, followed by one of Rubio and Bush, both of which have solid ground games in the State, a South Carolina Senator supporting each and an even split of congressmen.......it sounds as if George W Bush is going to stump for his brother, which could be a game changer is South Carolina, as "W" is very popular (still) in the State (and South), likewise, what could seal the deal for Bush (or a Rubio and Cruz) is a Gov. Haley endorsement.... If Bush finishes in the top three in South Carolina, I'd expect him to be in a good position going into Super Tuesday.......if he wins South Carolina, or finishes 2nd behind Cruz (not Trump), that might be it for Rubio and Kasich.

Though I don't honestly see, as of yet, a path for him to the White House, Kasich could pinch some of the Northern and Mid-West States on Super Tuesday, if he receives enough money now to continue on.........if he were to win a handful of States, he could very much so be in position toplay king-maker at the convention.

On what planet? Bloomberg's path to the White House is through Democratic States and swing States, hence forth, the creation of a vote split between him and Clinton......and that is why the head of the DNC doesn't want him to run and why Trump would welcome (as cited) a Bloomberg run.

Abortion, gay marriage, gun rights, pathway to citizenship and his general belief that Government can regulate away society's problems......a night and day difference.

As I said, we'll see once the race gets into the South. Did he? I don't think Christie and Trump were after the same voters.......A Christie endorsement of one of Bush, Rubio and Kasich could very much so be the "kingmaker" in the moderate field........we know he's not going to endorse Rubio (or Cruz).......or Trump.........That leaves us with Bush or Kasich......who is more likely to win the nomination and give Christie a cabinet post as a reward for his suicide attack on Rubio?

Riiiiiiight........ Trump + Cruz doesn't equal the Republican nomination, they occupy the same real estate...... ----------------- Any bets on who Christie will endorse after his murder-suicide of Rubio?

The same Cruz that Trump is currently targeting with his birther meme, being a Washington insider, not disclosing donations and screwing over Ben Carson? The more accurate phrase might be that they once liked each other..........

As I asked you above, what other GOP candidate(s) are going to support Trump so he could win the nomination and springboard from his ~35% ceiling?

Trump can welcome it all he likes, but unless he starts winning ~50% of the vote and delegates of each State, he'll be SOL in Cleveland.

Is he? I haven't seen any firm polls, outside of South Carolina, for the South/Texas. No they won't, they will vote for the Republican nominee..............something Trump shouldn't be able to receive unless he breaks out of his ~35% ceiling........if it remains a 3, or 4 or even a 5 way race, you will end up with a brokered convention in Cleveland.......outside of Cruz, which I would still think unlikely, who's supporters do you think will migrate to Trump? Trump has to get to the general first.

And independent voters? And you're missing my point......Reagan won the Texas/South in the GOP primary process and nearly beat Ford for the nomination, and the South in the general election voted for Carter/Democrats, a feat it hasn't done since.......And then, Texas played a far smaller part in the process.......... Trump is unlikely to win the Republican nomination without Texas and the majority of the South.......

Not in Texas, where Jeb has an embedded weapon.........crapping on the Bush family and Hispanics there isn't a smart plan. He does if he wants to win the nomination.......off the top of my head, the only Republican to loose Texas and still win the nomination was Ford in '76.....a sitting President, that squeaked by Reagan and lost Texas (and the South) to the Peanut farmer........

........I've heard in South Carolina, "somebody's" Super Pac, is about to blitz the airways with Trump's Vietnam draft deferments......prepare for a swift boat redux.........Good luck running in the GOP South being seen as a draft dodger In Bush country? I think Trump would be lucky to finish 3rd, behind Bush and Cruz. Trump's commie remarks on Keystone XL will sink him there.........likewise his remarks on tossing the F-35......eminent domain......the above mentioned draft dodging.....and crapping on the entire Bush family etc....... One more point, not to be overlooked, is who Gov. Abbott endorses......... Bush/Abbott 2016, you heard it here first