ASIP

Yes, there is some exaggeration in numbers, but only a handful of APV seen in early days of invasion belong to marines stationed in Sevastopol. Vast majority of troops what we see in photographs now are fresh arrivals. They are GRU commandos. New types of combat vehicles appeared. Every day Russia moves 200 - 300 new troops via ferry in Kerch. Recently Russia started using assault ships to bring even more troops and vehicles. They can unload on beaches. By my estimate based on releases of Ukrainian MND, before the conflict there were 11,000 - 12,000 Russian troops in Crimea. Now the number is about 18,000. Accuracy is not guaranteed.

It has nothing to do to the will of people . Last night Ukrainian MPs, diplomats and journalists suggested to start talking about what Crimea wants to the new Crimean "PM" Aksenov through a direct tV bridge. They told, "A month before we had oppressive regime in Ukraine, but Crimeans were OK within Ukraine. Now we have a chance to change our country for better, and all over sudden, Crimean people want separation, let's talk. What are the problems? How does Ukraine can help?". He refused to discuss any problems. Because he's a puppet of Putin. He is not interested in people of Crimea, he wants to be a senior servant of occupants. Putin ordered to held referendum to have a formal pretext (in his view) for annexation of Crimea. The "referendum" will be held and vast majority of population will "vote" for joining Russia. The two question formulated so, that there is no option for status quo. There is no boxes for answer "No". The form is extremely easy to make "Yes" even somebody leaves the boxes empty. A fair referendum is possible only if Russia brings their soldiers back to barracks, Aksenov's thugs are removed from streets and police return, international observers are present. From yesterday's TV bridge it is obvious that Ukraine is ready for huge concessions for Crimea to keep it. But this won't happen. Putin has made his mind. Nobody can monitor the process. A UN envoy has been expelled from Crimea, a delegation from Europe is denied entry. Canada's actions are a gold standard so far. If the rest of G7 countries followed Canadian principled approach, Putin would back up.

Again, I have no idea about this party, but what I read about them in English Wikipedia smells being not true for me.

Unfortunately, in this particular case, that's true. And not only for you. I never claimed I knew everything, I accept I can make mistakes. Consider me as just additional source of information, with certain additional capabilities. I didn't know them at all before your started posting stereotyped statements and making (as I saw it) generalizations.

I know that, I meant not text. There are two photographs with sings "Mines! Danger!" and fresh dug holes for the posts.

I saw like BH without any facts insisted that there is a fascist threat in Ukraine, pointing out on Svoboda party. I say that such threat is not proven. This threat arose when Russians occupied Crimea. Antisemitism acts happened in Crimea now. Svoboda party has no branches in Crimea. I confirm that foreign occupation is a big concern in this regard. OK, thank you for clarification, then I misinterpreted your words about the region. An answer is difficult. I cannot tell, I don't know. You have to find proven facts. I simply don't have them.

Cite? http://censor.net.ua/video_news/274732/minnye_polya_yamy_dlya_pogranstolbov_i_stvoly_btrov_napravlennye_na_shkolu_boeviki_rf_ukrepilis_na_granitse

You are dead wrong. You assume Russian in Crimea = wants to join Russia. This is not true. That is not true that "Parliament voted unanimously". Ukrainians and Tatars are not participating. There is no any proof that the voting took place. The building is blocked, media are not allowed. The new Crimean government will rubber stamp everything Russian bosses will order them. You cannot claim this so called referendum is fair if it is not monitored by respectful bodies. I have a strong reservation to mental health of a person who claims that a referendum under guns of occupying army is fair. This so called referendum does not explain what happens to Ukrainian federal property in Crimea. Even a simple divorce is based on some laws. This so called referendum is based on no law and is performing in astonishing haste. 25 May, no 30 March! no 16 March! And this decides the fate of 45-million country. This so called referendum will be a farce. The result is already decided. By the way, why didn't you say that the referendum was was item number 2 in the Crimean parliament decision? Item 1 is "Crimea is a part of Russian Federation". Do you know this? If you don't, I ask you not to spread false information about Ukraine. If you don't know something for sure, please, add "as reported by a Russian news agency". Not true. Not true. Otherwise, please give a name of that law. Show how it does what you state. Not true. BTW, your typo "apon" gives me some thought...

Of course not. He was hand picked by planners of this military operation, who reports to Putin. The guy is a gangster switched to politics. His nickname is Goblin from the Salem gang. His party took whooping 3% in the last Crimean election. In night Russian commandos seized the Crimean Parliament building, unknown number of Crimean MPs arrived, behind closed doors, in the blocked building they fired existing Crimean government and announced the guy, Aksenov the Prime Minister of Crimea. According to the CRIMEAN constituion, a Crimean PM must be approved by the President of Ukraine. Thus, this guy is illegal usurper of power. With his thugs, backed by Russian troops he is a real power in Crimea. Any attempts of international missions enter Crimea are deflected. Journalists who try to report actual situation are savagely beaten, equipment is broken or stolen. Ukraine does not use force because the thugs will shoot and this is what Russia is waiting for from the very beginning. Meanwhile, Russian troops started to lay minefields and put posts (probably for barbed wires) at the border with the mainland Ukraine.

It seems you are obsessed with "fascism and anti-Semitism" of Ukrainian people. This would have been ridiculous if this wouldn't be sad. There is no any troubles with what you have in your mind in the mainland Ukraine. There is even a new word appeared in Ukraine to describe the utter nonsense you follow: "жидо-бандеровец" (in Russian), transliterated "zhido-banderovets". Unless you can understand the meaning of this word your expertise in the current event is poor. You are driven by your emotions and not by rationale. To the contrary, there are documented facts of anti-semitism erupted in Crimea after the so-called new Crimean government grabbed the power with the help of Russian commandos.

Putin applies the same principle "divide and conquer" to Russian oligarch. He cannot eliminate them right now. They support Putin because his policy allows them to expand their business. Once the West finds a way to hurt their business they remove Putin themselves. This is the only way the situation can be resolved. Otherwise, it will be that "back and forth" you pointed out. Putin won't stop at Crimea. The trophy is too small for him.

You may look for one million sources and all of them be second or third-hand ones, including Wikipedia. If you want to have true information you have to go to original Ukrainian sources. How proficient are you in Ukrainian or at least Russian language? I do not have any proof of " fascism and anti-Semitism" of this party at the first place. Seems, neither do Ukrainian law enforcement agencies. In logic, you cannot prove what does not exist.

Thank you, Rue. I completely share all your points. Ukraine does not expect Europe, the US and NATO will interfere militarily. Maximum that can be done by Europe to stop Putin aggression is some economical sanctions against Russia. If Russia won't be stopped now, it will move farther north and west. The dream of Putin is to restore Russian Empire. There is still small hope that the US will implement sufficient sanctions to hurt Putin's oligarchs economically. However this is difficult.

Why would they need that referendum? What facts do you have about problems of people of Crimea with Ukraine before the Russian invasion? Do you know about native people of Crimea - Crimean Tatars, who, frankly speaking, hate Russia (not Russian people).

There have you been for some time? There tons of photos and video clips. Russian soldiers with guns are at every corner in Southern Crimea. 30,000 of them. For example: http://images.yandex.ru/yandsearch?text=%D0%B2%D0%B5%D0%B6%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B5+%D0%BB%D1%8E%D0%B4%D0%B8+%D0%B2+%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%BC%D1%83

Now there is a tense propaganda war in the Internet. I simply do not consider second-hand sources. It is very easy to digest pure BS. Try to get original documents. Not interpretations of somebody you don't know who. I believe you are grown enough do not make conclusions based on emblems. I have no idea what that Svoboda party is. My understanding is that they do obey Ukrainian constitution and can attract some votes in elections supervised by international observers. I know that in every country you can find extremists on both sides of political spectrum. It's a law of nature.

Your link is a garbage web site. There is no any public address. This "news" is an old fake. It's an example of Putin's propaganda. For your knowledge, Crimean Tatars have bad blood with Chechens. Crimean Tatars are allies of Ukraine with regard to Crimea being within Ukraine.

Actually, Sochi has a seaport used by cruise liners, capable to accommodate pretty big ships. The terminal building is just beautiful. And yes, Black Sea shore in Russia does not have good harbours. Russian Navy is stationed in Novorossiysk. Sevastopol naval base is not a root cause of the crisis, Russia has cheap lease with very good conditions until 2042. Quite opposite, this aggression will inevitably result in revision of the lease agreement by Ukrainian parliament.

Actually my question was addressed to August1991. Yes, ethnically Crimea includes about 60% Russians, 25% Ukrainians, 12.5% Crimean Tatars. Not all Russians want to join Russia. If a referendum would be with no Russian troops in streets and polling stations, say a month ago, no way Crimea would split. But with is purely speculation. According to the Ukrainian constitution, referendums on country integrity must be held in the entire country. What is being organized in Crimea is a farce. Transfer of Crimea to Ukraine was initiated by Stalin, though with participation of Khrushchev (he was a PM of Ukraine in that time). It was caused, as his son says, by economical and agricultural reasons. The transfer was synchronized with 300-year anniversary of Ukraine joining Russia in 1954. There were big celebrations. It was a big deal. Transfer was performed strictly in accordance with constitution of the USSR: there were a chain of laws, acts and agreements signed by parliaments of Russia, Ukraine and Soviet Union. In 1954 Khrushchev was a leader of the Communist party and held no position in any government body. There is no his signature on the official transfer acts.

I don't know what you mean "neo-fascists". Is it something like NSDAP? I do not track Ukrainian politics. There are many, many different parties. For curiosity I've just read the "Party Program" of Svoboda. http://www.budyon.org/programma-vo-svoboda-na-russkom-yazyike/ In my opinion, this is a soft nationalist party. Much less radical compared to National Front in France or some nationalist parties in Russia.

Khrushev gave it away... Can you prove it? Hint: this is a myth. The answer is obvious: for 60 years people of Crimea have had no problems being within Ukraine. Surprisingly, a Crimean jurisdiction became a problem several hours after heavily armed men overpowered police and sealed the Crimean parliament building. Can you point out any demonstrations for a referendum in Crimea, say last year, five years ago? Russian-speaking in no way means they are eager to join Russia. This is Ukrainian people. By blood they are Ukrainian, Russians, Jews, Greeks, and many others, but they are all Ukrainians. Ukraine is their country, their land. Everybody speaks language he wants. There is no language police. Its not Quebec. And why you do not mention Crimean Tatars? Crimea is their native land. They are a big factor in Crimean affairs. Ukrainians and Russians are brother nations. Unfortunately, imperial ambitions of this sick man, Putin, poisoned relations between people, between countries. There is another, economical reason why people in Ukraine, Crimea included, will not join Russia voluntarily. Their business elite absolutely understands that joining Russia is equal to losing businesses to Russian oligarchs. .

Sorry, I presented facts. Do you have any problem with them?

May be the situation should be returned to law and order first? Power in Crimea now is taken by a pro-Russian criminal by Russian bayonets.

Ha-ha! 1. Can you tell us details how "the sitting government" was removed? Answer: by handful boys along with Russian commandos in a locked building, no secretaries (no records), no press, no cell phones. 2. It is very interesting to hear on what legal base the new Crimean PM was established. Answer: Just claiming "I am a boss!" 3. What coup in Kiev are you talking about? Answer: There was civil unrest in Kiev, not coup. 4. What law is for the referendum procedure? Who will be observers? Answer: There is no established procedure for a referendum in provinces, a referendum on important questions are to be in the whole country. Observers will be Russian troops. They will count votes too. This "referendum" is scheduled for March 30. Today the Crimean "self-defence" did not allow a representative of UN to enter Crimea.

This is a blatant lie. Power in Ukraine is not seized. The parliament is still the same, only pro Russian president-usurper fled the country. This is why the new Ukrainian government has no problem with recognition by Canada, US, NATO, EU, UN etc.