ASIP

Life for English speaking observers is getting easier. Today I found this site: http://inforesist.org/?lang=en I never read them before, but their main correspondent, Mr. Tymchuk, is, probably, the best informed journalist in that part of Ukraine. No guaranty that all information is 100% correct, but, nevertheless, this is best what is available.

The presidential election will be completely valid. I.e., it is being held (it's a long process) in accordance to a respective law. International observers will be present. An indication will be recognition of the results by the UN. Ukrainian citizens living in Crimea can vote in neighboring oblasts of Ukraine. Elections in the two troubled oblasts will be partially disrupted, but the important fact is that Ukraine creates all conditions for voting there. Disruptions will not be critical. In the other 22 oblast it will be business as usual. Of course, Russia will do some provocations, but, again they won't be critical. The biggest problem, for Ukraine is the number of candidates - about 20 (including representing East and South). This means that it is possible that nobody can get 50% and the second round may be required. Period of uncertainty may last longer time. You are pretty far from the real situation. No "buffer" is required or anticipated. Just a solid border is necessary.

These so called referenda set bar only for how primitive Russia propaganda is. RT is a Russia's propaganda machine. It is physically impossible to vote for more than 100,000 people in those conditions. Any person can do the math. Results of this so called referendum are senseless. This is a farce. Or circus.

There is no condition for this scenario. A "split" is only possible by Russian invasion. Which is not in Russia's interest. Nonsense. See the Constitution of Ukraine. Yanukovich fled the country and was not able to carry duties of the president. The current government is completely legal. In Ukraine there is no election of government. Only Parliament and President are elected. The presidential election is set for May 25. The current interim president is assigned in accordance with the Constitution. He has limited power.

This number is more or less believable. The problem is that the number of people who voted did not (physically absolutely could not) exceed 15% of the total voters number in these two regions. What I saw from live streams, the number of of votes should measure in tens of thousands at all possible optimism. No way more than 3% of voters (3.5 mln people) did vote. This is how you should take this so called referendum. That approx. of 20% of population there do want to separate or join Russia is a known fact, but this farce cannot confirm it.

In a certain sense it is interesting, however one key point is distorted: NATO's promise not to expand on East. This is just Russian propaganda.

This is a myth. The number of ethnic Russians arrived to Eastern Ukraine in 1940s - 1950s is not overwhelming, they are still minority. Whose people gladly accepted Ukrainian culture, which is very close to Russian. Ukraine is a much more comfortable country to live (compared to Russia), and always was. Now you deal with grandchildren and even great-grandchildren of whose people. They do speak Russian, but they identify themselves with their native country - Ukraine. Crimea is a different story. It was a desired retirement destination of Soviet military. Thus staffing of Crimea with Russians who are complete strangers to Ukraine continued until mid 1990s, and, in lesser extent, even later. Plus presence of Russian Navy and large military personnel with members of their families there. And from the logical point of view, presence of Russian "diaspora" does not cancel existence of Ukrainian selfidentity. And saying that Ukrainian identity is based on Polish one is ridiculous. It's a confusing of borrowing some Polish words in the borderland with national identity.

This is complete nonsense. Come to Ukraine and see.

This is a good analysis. The only missing point in it (in at least cited part) is a new generation of young Ukrainians who do not know Soviet Union. They see Ukraine differently.

That is true. Definitely, Putin is making a model of old Russia czars. In terms of "higher" moral ground, the concept of Moscow being "the third Rome" is revitalized today.

In reality, it's vice versa. Putin's appeal to Russian mob is exactly on the perceived "higher" morality ground than the "rotten West". This is a corner stone of the modern Russian state doctrine.

See, there are two problems here for jbg: 1. It's a single case, not plural. 2. It has nothing to do to Ukrainian internal affairs.

Yes, it would be really nice. But there is a big problem here. The occupiers of the government buildings in these two (just two out of 24) oblasts (regions) are marginalized people. Their number is in order of 1000. They are 50% thugs. There cannot be any journalists among them. Journalism is a feature of a normal society. Thugs and journalism are incompatible. I realize that I am telling shocking things, but that is the situation there. In reality, there are tons of information from inside. Just go to local internet forums of the cities where the seizures happened. But you must speak at least Russian and it must be colloquial, not academic, language. BTW, CBC reporting about Ukraine is pretty good. You can treat CBC, BBC and VoA journalist as impartial. Ukrainian sources (.ua) are not reliable. Russian sources (.ru) are 99.9% garbage. I appreciate your interest in the Ukrainian events. FYI, the problems are in just two oblasts in the East. It's not even the whole east of Ukraine. And South has made its choice. Separatism is dead there. There is, actually no significant separatism in Donetsk and Lugansk regions. What we see is an attempt of a couple of local oligarchs to create their small kingdoms. Russia has no intention to annex them. Russia is just maintaining instability in Ukraine, with dreams to reverse democratic changes. If you have questions, ask, don't do uneducated guesses. With no knowledge of the background, it is impossible to understand what is going on there.

It seems you have just a faint idea what you are talking about. Hint: What poisonings? Give at least two examples. There is no any significant division inside Ukraine. Neither cultural (linguistic) nor religious nor even rich/poor.

This is not true. This is absolutely not true. This current turmoil was initiated from outside in a very narrow window of opportunity. Ukraine will be fine.

Exactly. As it was recently stated by NATO, no such a promise was made. This is pure Putin's propaganda to justify Russian aggression.

Do you have a confirmation of this BS? Or, I see, you are volunteering for Putin's propaganda machine...

The Toronto Star in an opinion section published incorrect information. Are you surprised? Can the commentator, Richard Gwyn, find Ukraine on the map? I am not sure. Russian is not an official language in Ukraine.

Not true. The two Oblasts (regions) where seizures happens are depression regions, they are not self-sustained. These are home regions of Yanukovich. "Protests" are the struggle of the hard-core mafia to keep the old system of corruption that the Kiev government is trying to shutter. Local police is a part of that mafia system. It is few mafia kings, not people, who want "independence" from Kiev.

Plain and simple - BS! Facts are generally correct, but not exactly. It's a semi-truth.

Communist party of Soviet Union did not use English in their documents. Do you think that this is a proof of no Antisemitism in the USSR? Though, you may try Google: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_in_the_Soviet_Union

Yes, at least in the USSR neo Nazi sentiments were not existent. Not the case in modern Russia. There are lots of images of Russian neo Nazis in the internet. Antisemitism was a policy in the USSR until its end and is still deeply embedded in the mentality of Russian rednecks.

BG, The professor, who wrote the article is not well informed or intentionally distorted facts (please read comments to the article). Pravy Sector is not a part of Ukrainian government. Moreover, there are significant disagreements between the two. Pravy Sector in no way controls Kiev and it has negligible power to squeeze the parliament. As for the gas supply. Exact details of the contract are unknown. What I know that Russia is known for bullying and lying. I do not think Russia will turn the tap off (they have tried that twice before, it did not work). Debt for the gas does probably, exists, but it is manageable. Payments do flow. Yes, Ukraine is asking for money, but not exclusively to pay for Russian gas. The former president and his gang drained Ukrainian coffers. Russia now forces Ukraine to do painful military spending. Ukraine needs a couple of years of peace to recover to normal life. I think that Canada's financial help to Ukraine is not worse than throwing money into the bottomless pit called UNO. 1. Yes. 2. Some but not critical. They actually are moving towards being a civilized parliamentarian party. 3. Information itself is generally correct, however, it is not complete and there is a bias of the author.

What obligation?! "Accordingly" to what?

You are late. This kind of stories was spread by Russian propaganda about three weeks ago. Now you have to sing about federalization, "Yanukovich, come back and save us!" and illegal elections on May 25th. Check with your supervisors.