Dion's leadership symptomatic of Liberal long-term decline.

[Michael Bluth]

Very interesting stuff. (sorry no link pay site)

Liberals used to be called the natural governing party. But, in fact, the party has been in opposition for about half of the past 23 years. They were torn apart in the Mulroney years by the John Turner-Jean Chrétien rivalry, a nasty affair indeed.

For most of the past 23 years, since the end of the Trudeau era, the Liberals seldom have been an entirely happy bunch fully behind their leader. There was unity for the first five or six years of the Chrétien era, but then the Martinites became restless, then more restless, until their man finally left the cabinet, thereby making the split open and final.

With Mr. Chrétien's book about his years in office soon to be published, the question becomes, in thinking about the past quarter of a century and today's weakened Liberal state: Were his years an aberration amid long-term decline?

That's a very interesting way to look at things indeed.

There hasn't been a 20 or 25 year stretch with such parity between the parties since the late 1800s.

Perhaps the old Natural Governing Party talk is a relic that belongs to another era?

[old_bold&cold]

I look at the problems that Dion is facing as the natural ending to the political game of hot potatoe that the leadership convention really was about. To me, I see Dion as the fall on the sword type liberal, who really is not going to do much for the party, other then take time out and let the voters think that change in behind the scenes is taking place, when we all know it is not really. Yes the Liberal are in decline and I am confounded by the fact that it did not melt totally down in the last election, but I do feel that further melt downs are still to come. With the PC after Mulroney they melted very fast and destroyed the old party big time. The same thing should have happened after Chretien but it seems that the Liberals will try and make this a much slower decline, then a total rout. Things had to change and Dion is mostly just an interm holder of the torch. I do not think even the party faithful expect him to do well in any election. They are all thinking forward to the next party convention and trying to find that next new leader who has all the ings that Dion lacks.

It does not make sense that if Dion was looked at by the majority of the party just one year ago as being their leader, that everyone would turn so abruptly against him today. I would really be surprised if the Liberals actually bring down the government this fall, as they definitely would not gain anything and only spend their war chest needlessly, in a war they can not win. I pretty much believe Harper will survive long enough to see his set election date come about. All the noise from the opposition is really just that noise.

[M.Dancer]

Very interesting stuff. (sorry no link pay site)

That's a very interesting way to look at things indeed.

There hasn't been a 20 or 25 year stretch with such parity between the parties since the late 1800s.

Perhaps the old Natural Governing Party talk is a relic that belongs to another era?

The whole article

http://www.rbcinvest.theglobeandmail.com/s...National/2/2/4/

[Keepitsimple]

We'll get a really good idea of where Dion and his Liberals stand when they have to vote on the throne speech. We know the Bloc and NDP will vote against it. Dion will most likely try to orchestrate deliberate absences so that the vote passes. But what if some of those MPs decide to show up anyway to vote down the Throne Speech so they can have an election, lose, and kick Dion out? Indeed, it will be interesting to see who shows up, and who doesn't.

[sharkman]

Those working to knife Dion in the back will counteract those still trying to help him. He is a dead weight to the Liberal party.

[Canadian Blue]

If Dion is knifed in the back, then can you imagine how much damage would be done to the party in the long term. I couldn't see the party being united after that, and I'd even imagine that some would simply leave for any one of the three other parties.