Federal Election this Fall?

[jdobbin]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe says he's ready to take down Stephen Harper's Conservative government if the prime minister doesn't make a firm commitment to withdraw Canadian troops from Afghanistan by February 2009.

He's also calling for an emergency debate on Canada's role in the Afghanistan once parliament resumes on Sept. 17.

Just today, I am starting to believe that an election might be possible.

For a long time, I believed the BQ would be the ones that held up a confidence vote. However, it the Tories collapse completely over the next weeks in support over the issue of Afghanistan, I expect that the BQ and the NDP will be hankering to end it this fall.

The Liberals are smartly not making ultimatums.

I've been watching some of the Quebec broadcasts and seeing what some of the Quebec newspapers are saying. I can't imagine it could be possibly more troubling in terms of the mission.

[maldon_road]

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

Just today, I am starting to believe that an election might be possible.

For a long time, I believed the BQ would be the ones that held up a confidence vote. However, it the Tories collapse completely over the next weeks in support over the issue of Afghanistan, I expect that the BQ and the NDP will be hankering to end it this fall.

The Liberals are smartly not making ultimatums.

I've been watching some of the Quebec broadcasts and seeing what some of the Quebec newspapers are saying. I can't imagine it could be possibly more troubling in terms of the mission.

Isn't the Bloc's position to stay in Afghanistan until 2009? How can Duceppe justify such a N/C motion then?

[old_bold&cold]

I really do hope there is an election this fall. No matter what the polls say, I truly believe that to put Dion in an election would show the world what a useless half wit the Liberal have as a leader. He would almost garantee a CP majority. Hell his chicken little "the waters being sold" f last week is truly laughable and I know we can count on him to fall on his face so much in an election campaigne that he will only become a further laughing stock. The best thing the CP could ever have is this man running against them. The Block will probably lose ground in Quebec as well, so I do not think they will help bring down the government, but to my own view, I would be very happy if the did. Dion will never gain support and he will only lose what ever they they presently have. I do not believe that the Liberal are not aware of this. He can not even perform as an opposition leader with any other then a drab performance. So why would they ever think that he will do better during an election. But as I said bring it on. The NDP will call for elections even though they may well lose seats, but that is the way they have always been.

Duceppe may put out some feelers for now about election calls, but can he risk the same fate that the PQ had in the last election, leaking into federal BQ events. It is ripe for that to possibly happen, and it is anyones guess as to who that would favour, but Quebecers still remember the Sponsorship scandel, and I would think PC's are proably going to benefit more then the Libs, once elections are called.

I am also in favour of Harper himself making the call for an election due to the Liberal senate holding things up. If I were hime I would give them 30 days to clear all the backlog in the senate, or he calls the election, and can show just how the Liberals are not serious about changing rules to stop scandel, and also not in favour of increased sentences for gun crimes and the like. He can easily make that work in his favour. If an election is called this fall it will be perfectly ok with me and I am sre the PC's.

[fellowtraveller]

The holdup in the Liberal Senate might well be an issue that could topple the govt, and Harper may well select it.

Afghanistan is another, and both the Bloc and the NDP have incorrectly assessed the prevailing sentiment in the country . Harper will not hesitate to exploit this.

[maldon_road]

I am also in favour of Harper himself making the call for an election due to the Liberal senate holding things up. If I were hime I would give them 30 days to clear all the backlog in the senate, or he calls the election, and can show just how the Liberals are not serious about changing rules to stop scandel, and also not in favour of increased sentences for gun crimes and the like. He can easily make that work in his favour. If an election is called this fall it will be perfectly ok with me and I am sre the PC's.

If there is an election it would have to be poll related. Harper has said he would not call an election until 2009 but he might try to finagle opposition obstruction as an excuse. To get the Liberals defeated would require all three parties to bring them down and I can't see all three believing simultaneously that their electoral prospects will be good enough to do this.

[Michael Bluth]

It will be very easy to see if Harper wants a fall election.

If he prorogues Parliament the House won't sit until October which means a mid to late November election at the earliest. Nobody wants another winter election.

If the House sits as scheduled that probably means the Conservatives feel ready for an election this fall and believe the opposition will force an election.

As for Duceppe? Much ado about nothing.

The mission is scheduled to end in February 2009. Harper has gone on record saying there won't be an extension without the support of Parliament.

Harper will prorogue and there won't be a fall election.

[jdobbin]

Isn't the Bloc's position to stay in Afghanistan until 2009? How can Duceppe justify such a N/C motion then?

The same way he justified quitting the BQ to run for the PQ and change his mind a day or so later?

[jdobbin]

If there is an election it would have to be poll related. Harper has said he would not call an election until 2009 but he might try to finagle opposition obstruction as an excuse. To get the Liberals defeated would require all three parties to bring them down and I can't see all three believing simultaneously that their electoral prospects will be good enough to do this.

And yet that is what all the Opposition parties eventually thought when they took Martin down despite the the polls saying that people didn't want an election as well as indications in the polls saying the Liberals were likely to win re-election. It was during the election the poll numbers went down for the Liberals when it was revealed that the RCMP were investigating Ralph Goodale's office. The polls dropped 10 points for the Liberals in the next day and never recovered.

The Tories can declare any vote in the House as a confidence vote and go to an election.

There are a few issues that could make the Conservatives very vulnerable. The biggest is Afghanistan. The BQ might not want to wait for the Van Doos to be rotated out. The moment for them might be this fall even if it is a winter election.

[jdobbin]

The holdup in the Liberal Senate might well be an issue that could topple the govt, and Harper may well select it.

Afghanistan is another, and both the Bloc and the NDP have incorrectly assessed the prevailing sentiment in the country . Harper will not hesitate to exploit this.

He can holler and yell about the Senate but that will of less importance to many people that an issue of Afghanistan.

And just what is the prevailing attitude on Afghanistan you think? That we should extend our mission?

[Michael Bluth]

And yet that is what all the Opposition parties eventually thought when they took Martin down despite the the polls saying that people didn't want an election as well as indications in the polls saying the Liberals were likely to win re-election.

Not quite accurate.

There were a number of polls taken the week before the Government was defeated indicating that the Liberals and Conservatives were in a statistical tie. Given that Government's have historically lost support during election campaigns these polls definitely did not indicate that the Liberals were likely to win re-election.

Link 1 Link 2 Link 3

[August1991]

Isn't the Bloc's position to stay in Afghanistan until 2009? How can Duceppe justify such a N/C motion then?

Duceppe is saying he'll vote against the government if there is no firm commitment to withdraw troops in Feb 2009. (Duceppe also wants a debate about Afghanistan as soon as Parliament sits.)

Dion is saying that he wants Harper to commit now to remove troops in Feb 2009 but Dion also says he won't vote to bring the government down (???).

Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe says he's ready to bring down Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative government this fall if there's no firm commitment to withdraw Canadian troops from Afghanistan by February 2009.

Dion says he wants the same thing, but he wants the commitment now, not in the fall.

And he adds he won't commit to bringing down the Tories without seeing what the prime minister includes in a throne speech expected this fall.

Link

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I frankly think this posturing of Duceppe and Dion is premature and even unseemly. More wisely, neither Harper nor Bernier has made any comment yet on the recent deaths of Quebec soldiers and the injuries to R-C personnel.

There is an ongoing debate in Quebec now about what Canada's military role in Afghanistan should be. Unlike English-Canada where in some quarters there is a kneejerk reaction to "support the military", the debate in Quebec is wide open, genuine and mature. For example, some ask why Quebecers notice this now, implying that the death of a Quebec soldier is somehow different from the death of any other NATO member.

This issue crosses nationalist lines because even if Quebec were independent, it would still be a member of NATO.

If the government falls on this issue and we have an election, Harper will face three opponents: one in Quebec and two in English-Canada. That's a good place to be; particularly when he's on the correct side of the issue. As many will ask: what alternative is there?

BTW, Patrice Roy is a well-known journalist and Bernard Derome (the Quebec equivalent of Peter Mansbridge) is off to Afghanistan anyway.

Edited August 24, 2007 by August1991

[maldon_road]

Duceppe is saying he'll vote against the government if there is no firm commitment to withdraw troops in Feb 2009. (Duceppe also wants a debate about Afghanistan as soon as Parliament sits.)

Dion is saying that he wants Harper to commit now to remove troops in Feb 2009 but Dion also says he won't vote to bring the government down (???).

Both these guys are trying to exploit the deaths on the VanDoos but trying to avoid a public backlash. There is no justification for Harper to make any kind of commitment at this point. The House will get a chance to vote on the issue in 2009.

At least Dion is smart enough not to try and threaren an election out of it.

[August1991]

Both these guys are trying to exploit the deaths on the VanDoos but trying to avoid a public backlash. There is no justification for Harper to make any kind of commitment at this point. The House will get a chance to vote on the issue in 2009.

At least Dion is smart enough not to try and threaren an election out of it.

Are you normally so foolish in ordinary life?

Young men were killed. Politicians ordered this. Could you sleep tonight if you had decided this?

Maldon Road, don't be so flippant.

[fellowtraveller]

He can holler and yell about the Senate but that will of less importance to many people that an issue of Afghanistan.

And just what is the prevailing attitude on Afghanistan you think? That we should extend our mission?

Harper wil be looking for an issue he wants to fall on, not letting the Opposition force the issue. And anything to do with the Senate is ideal, since most Canadians think it's a sad joke at best.

On Afghanistan, first Layton and now Duceppe have underestimated the countries willingness to stay the course in combat operations to 2009, which is consistent with our promise to NATO and to the Afghan government. They cannot afford to wait and see if -Harper will do what he has promised- a Parliamentary decision on post 2009. They are positioning themselves as the cut-and-runners, and they will pay electorally if Harper can exploit that.

[maldon_road]

Are you normally so foolish in ordinary life?

Young men were killed. Politicians ordered this. Could you sleep tonight if you had decided this?

Maldon Road, don't be so flippant.

Flippant? That's Duceppe who now wants to discuss an issue he was quite prepared to leave until 2009.

[maldon_road]

Are you normally so foolish in ordinary life?

Young men were killed. Politicians ordered this. Could you sleep tonight if you had decided this?

Maldon Road, don't be so flippant.

Flippant? I don't think there is anything flippant at all about this. But it is Duceppe who now wants to discuss an issue he was quite prepared to leave until 2009. To me he is exploiting the issue.

[jdobbin]

Harper wil be looking for an issue he wants to fall on, not letting the Opposition force the issue. And anything to do with the Senate is ideal, since most Canadians think it's a sad joke at best.

On Afghanistan, first Layton and now Duceppe have underestimated the countries willingness to stay the course in combat operations to 2009, which is consistent with our promise to NATO and to the Afghan government. They cannot afford to wait and see if -Harper will do what he has promised- a Parliamentary decision on post 2009. They are positioning themselves as the cut-and-runners, and they will pay electorally if Harper can exploit that.

Unfortunately for Mr. Harper, some polls are starting to shows more and more Canadians wanting to get out now. I wouldn't be surprised if that number in Quebec is quite high.

[Michael Bluth]

Harper wil be looking for an issue he wants to fall on, not letting the Opposition force the issue. And anything to do with the Senate is ideal, since most Canadians think it's a sad joke at best.

Yes, the Senate forcing the Conservatives hands would be ideal.

The last time it happened was 1993. Sad really, because the PCs had left themselves no options on that one. The second Mulroney mandate came perilously close to the five year maximum.

This time around any shenanigans by the Senate would be an issue in the campaign. We have a fixed election date. Why should the unequal, mostly unelected, ineffecitve Senate change that?

[M.Dancer]

Unfortunately for Mr. Harper, some polls are starting to shows more and more Canadians wanting to get out now. I wouldn't be surprised if that number in Quebec is quite high.

Neither would I....but if he can convince Ontario he will have less need for Quebec. Personally if Duceppe or what's his name forces an election of Aghanistan I hope they get screwed royally. As Gore et al before them, there's no politcal milage running on a platform of cowardice.

[jdobbin]

Neither would I....but if he can convince Ontario he will have less need for Quebec. Personally if Duceppe or what's his name forces an election of Aghanistan I hope they get screwed royally. As Gore et al before them, there's no politcal milage running on a platform of cowardice.

The key to diminishing the negative response to Afghanistan has always been explaining what the mission is. The government has not done a very good job of that.

[Michael Bluth]

Neither would I....but if he can convince Ontario he will have less need for Quebec. Personally if Duceppe or what's his name forces an election of Aghanistan I hope they get screwed royally. As Gore et al before them, there's no politcal milage running on a platform of cowardice.

A platform of cowardice is no path to failure.

It is unlikely the Conservatives are losing a lot of support in Afghanistan over the issue.

In a CROP poll released yesterday, the percentage of respondents who opposed sending troops from Quebec rose to 68 per cent from 57 per cent after Pte. Longtin's death.

Which still means 32% of Quebeckers don't oppose sending troops to Quebec.

Harper won his 10 seats in Quebec with 25% of the vote in the province. Something tells me he might have a little room for growth under this level of support for the Afghanistan mission.

[M.Dancer]

The key to diminishing the negative response to Afghanistan has always been explaining what the mission is. The government has not done a very good job of that.

I agree. Unfortunately we have had too many previous governments hawking the myth that thge armed forces were an foreign aid organization and for many Canadians it's a hard wake up call to find out that their purpose is to provde security by killing bad people. Twice as hard when they realize that bad people fight back. What many Canadians would hope for is that our armed forces only provide drinking water, new hospitals and roads and be available for fell good photo ops. Again what they don't realize is without the troops pushing the Taleban back, those who are buiding the hospitals and roads would be murdered before the paint is dried.

Quite simply, you can't have aid and reconstruction in the middle of a war without someone providing security and taking the fight away from the aid providers.

Of course, we could follow Layton's direction and allow the TAliban to regain power. I wonder what a few thousand aid workers lives are worth on the NDP/Taleban negotiating table?

[jdobbin]

I agree. Unfortunately we have had too many previous governments hawking the myth that thge armed forces were an foreign aid organization and for many Canadians it's a hard wake up call to find out that their purpose is to provde security by killing bad people. Twice as hard when they realize that bad people fight back. What many Canadians would hope for is that our armed forces only provide drinking water, new hospitals and roads and be available for fell good photo ops. Again what they don't realize is without the troops pushing the Taleban back, those who are buiding the hospitals and roads would be murdered before the paint is dried.

Quite simply, you can't have aid and reconstruction in the middle of a war without someone providing security and taking the fight away from the aid providers.

I'm still not totally convinced that the Afghan government will ever be up to the task of taking care of itself. It is a frustrating aspect of being there for Canadian soldiers as well when they see Afghan Police undermine their efforts at every turn.

I don't know that Canadians wish to be in Afghanistan as long as they were in Cyprus without some solid evidence that the Afghan government is not just offloading its problems onto Canadian soldiers and not stepping up to do the job themselves.

This has proved to be a huge problem for Bush in Iraq. They finally have a strategy that is making military gains and the Iraqi government undermines those gains at every turn. It's no wonder the American people are unresponsive anymore to a "stay the course" call.

Edited August 24, 2007 by jdobbin

[old_bold&cold]

I fully like the idea of any of the other political parties forcing an election this fall. But I think that what we are all now seeing is just sabre rattling as it just plain stupid for any of them to even think that they will make any gains with an election being called. Duceppe has the most to lose as he will have given the chance for the people to say the same thin g they did in the provincial election, and that was federalism is going to be given a fair chance and the seperatists are to be taught a lesson of humility. The same thing is still in the air and it will be somethingthat the BQ should have considered. I can see where Duceppe might be ashamed of his flip flop early on in the provincial elections, and now is trying to prove his power and position, again in the BQ. But surely the rest of the BQ can see that ones mans ego is not reason to force an election.

The rest of the parties should also see that any forcing of the issue can and will backfire on them big time. Dion is not ready to run an election campagne, and he is not something most people will see as leader material. It will not be a pretty site to see him slaughtered in the debates. The rest of the Liberals have nothing to gain and only stand to lose more in any effort to have an election.

As for NDP goes, well they are what they are and they have no power to make deals or to negoiate anything, so while they probably will not gain anything, they will not really lose anything either. Even if they lose seats they will still have no power or means to negiate power. So they will probably roll the dice and see what happens.

[M.Dancer]

I'm still not totally convinced that the Afghan government will ever be up to the task of taking care of itself. It is a frustrating aspect of being there for Canadian soldiers as well when they see Afghan Police undermine their efforts at every turn.

That's possible but if we vacate, people like blackdog will say we allowed Afghanistan to becoma another somalia.....or worse, it could become another post russian afghanstan......