Recession

[msj]

Right...for the USA only. Why it's in Canada/US Relations escapes me.

Because the thread deals mostly with the US recession perhaps?

Because I thought the charts would be of some interest to people who are not sofa king wee todd it?

Canada just went into negative GDP for the past quarter so there's your Canadian content.

[Bonam]

Umm, the purpose is clearly to compare the current contraction to other contractions which is a useful way to look at things.

Edited: I should have stated when I posted the charts above that one should read the commentary that goes along with them to better understand what is being looked at.

I supposed I take this for granted (I usually read this stuff and then look at the charts rather than just look at the charts) hence the postings by BC and Bonam....

I did read the commentary, prior to making the post. I still think its a bad way to present the charts. There is no reason to throw away the underlying uptrend in the data.

[msj]

I did read the commentary, prior to making the post. I still think its a bad way to present the charts. There is no reason to throw away the underlying uptrend in the data.

The reason to "throw away" the uptrend is to compare the depth of each recession and the recovery as it comes back to the previous peak in whichever measurement is being watched.

Edited to add: also, you are wrong about the charts "only showing losses." The graphs clearly show positive growth if one cares to look at them closely enough.

Edited September 2, 2011 by msj

[Bonam]

The reason to "throw away" the uptrend is to compare the depth of each recession and the recovery as it comes back to the previous peak in whichever measurement is being watched.

Edited to add: also, you are wrong about the charts "only showing losses." The graphs clearly show positive growth if one cares to look at them closely enough.

A logarithmic chart with a trendline of this style:

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/markets/SP-Composite-secular-trends-with-regression-channel.gif

shows the depth of each dip while also showing the underlying upward trend. That one is for stock markets, not gdp, but you could certainly do the same for gdp.

Edit: You can also note that based on the stock markets, the recent dip was small compared to previous major bear markets (the ones in the 70s and 30s), barely even dropping down below the center trendline.

Edited September 2, 2011 by Bonam

[msj]

A logarithmic chart with a trendline of this style:

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/markets/SP-Composite-secular-trends-with-regression-channel.gif

shows the depth of each dip while also showing the underlying upward trend. That one is for stock markets, not gdp, but you could certainly do the same for gdp.

I am not saying such charts aren't useful, only that the one's I have presented are interesting.

We can agree to disagree on what one finds interesting I suppose.

[Bonam]

I am not saying such charts aren't useful, only that the one's I have presented are interesting.

We can agree to disagree on what one finds interesting I suppose.

Sure, they can be "interesting". I just think that for an average observer, those charts are overly pessimistic. You see all the dips, but whenever the economy is in a state of growth, you just see a flat line. With all the excessive doom and gloom hype in the media, I guess I just lashed out a bit at presenting data in such a superficially gloomy way...

[msj]

Sure, they can be "interesting". I just think that for an average observer, those charts are overly pessimistic. You see all the dips, but whenever the economy is in a state of growth, you just see a flat line. With all the excessive doom and gloom hype in the media, I guess I just lashed out a bit at presenting data in such a superficially gloomy way...

How is it superficially gloomy?

Look at the most recent contraction.

Look at how real GDP declines and then recovers back towards the "peak" GDP (i.e. the GDP peak prior to the decline).

The point of the graphs is to, relatively, compare the depth and length of each contraction as compared to the pre-recession peak of that recession as compared to other recessions.

[bush_cheney2004]

...Canada just went into negative GDP for the past quarter so there's your Canadian content.

So where are the charts? Oh yeah..."it's just easier to find US content".

[msj]

So where are the charts? Oh yeah..."it's just easier to find US content".

Well, since you want global content how about this one: GDP recovery since the recession.

I'm sure you and Bonam will find something to whine about with that chart.

[bush_cheney2004]

...I'm sure you and Bonam will find something to whine about with that chart.

Not at all....those are very fine charts...thank you. I want to praise and encourage your efforts to understand the world beyond the only hegemon you have ever known.

[msj]

Not at all....those are very fine charts...thank you. I want to praise and encourage your efforts to understand the world beyond the only hegemon you have ever known.

No, you want me to show you the charts that I see on a regular basis so that you can understand the world beyond the hegemon that you have only ever known: a wailing American wannabe.

[Bonam]

Well, since you want global content how about this one: GDP recovery since the recession.

I'm sure you and Bonam will find something to whine about with that chart.

Nope, nothing wrong with that one.

[msj]

Nope, nothing wrong with that one.

Yeah, but, did you click on the link where it showed this chart?

Surely that's "superficially gloomly!"

[bush_cheney2004]

.... a wailing American wannabe.

Very true...I am delighted with my American-ness, and like to sing it from the mountain tops. Don't be so jealous!

[msj]

Very true...I am delighted with my American-ness, and like to sing it from the mountain tops. Don't be so jealous!

Oh, how I wish I, too, could fill out 10 page forms per year just to disclose my TFSA's to the IRS! [To reference another thread about the suckiness of being a US citizen living abroad]

[bush_cheney2004]

Oh, how I wish I, too, could fill out 10 page forms per year just to disclose my TFSA's to the IRS! [To reference another thread about the suckiness of being a US citizen living abroad]

No way...that's just the skin flint Canadian side being too cheap to buy tax preparation software.

[CPCFTW]

Because the thread deals mostly with the US recession perhaps?

Because I thought the charts would be of some interest to people who are not sofa king wee todd it?

Canada just went into negative GDP for the past quarter so there's your Canadian content.

Canada "went into negative GDP"? Are you sure you know what you're talking about?

[msj]

Canada "went into negative GDP"? Are you sure you know what you're talking about?

Another anal retentive type. Great.

Next thing is to send in the grammar Nazis.

Canada had a quarter showing a decline in GDP. Is that better or do you still not comprehend what was being said?

[msj]

Here is a link to the same chart, plus another new one, I posted a couple of pages ago with some nice historical information on dating recessions.

Basically, this is why some are wondering if it should be called a contraction rather than a recession - the peak to trough to, hopefully some day, new peak sure is taking a while.

Not that this is a surprise to those of us many, many, pages ago who pointed out that this recession (or contraction) is different since it is not a business cycle recession but a financial/debt cycle recession (see the Book "This Time is Different" by Rogoff/Reinhart - and see Rogoff's recent comment on this).

Once again, for interests sake.

As for CanCon - sorry, but you're on your own BC.