Rumours about Federal Election in May 2007

[August1991]

Vincent Marissal said on R-C tonight that he heard this from several federal Liberal MPs and other sources.

Anybody know anything?

[Michael Bluth]

Word out of the Conservative election training thing a few weeks back was as follows. Harper wants to go, the caucus wants to go. The big question mark is/was how much time the volunteers will/would be willing to give.

My guess is the reults tonight will be decisive in a spring election.

The ADQ volunteer base will be activated. The Conservatives can expect to pick up five points in Quebec from their reults in the 2006 election. That would translate into another dozen seats.

The last Ipsos-Reid and Strategic Counsel polls also give the Conservatives another 15 to 20 seats in Ontario.

They are definitely in majority territory now.

[August1991]

Marissal had dates. Harper would see the GG on 11 April for an election around 18 May (IIRC).

Harper can legitimately take credit in English Canada for this result in Quebec. He did the Quebecois nation motion and delivered on the fiscal imbalance file - both were influential (although they helped Dumont more than Charest).

I don't know if it's a good idea (if it ain't broke, don't fix it) but Harper gets paid the big bucks to make such decisions.

[Michael Bluth]

Federal elections have to be on a Monday.

So the 14th of May probably works as the date. Can't do the following Monday ... May long weekend.

Then you are getting into the end of school and a summer election.

Harper's gotta pull the plug in the next three weeks or we don't go in the Spring.

With the results tonight, media speculation will really start churning. I'm sure Harper will find a way to pull the plug.

All this talk of an early election is sure to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[jdobbin]

Marissal had dates. Harper would see the GG on 11 April for an election around 18 May (IIRC).

Harper can legitimately take credit in English Canada for this result in Quebec. He did the Quebecois nation motion and delivered on the fiscal imbalance file - both were influential (although they helped Dumont more than Charest).

I don't know if it's a good idea (if it ain't broke, don't fix it) but Harper gets paid the big bucks to make such decisions.

I'm not sure he is about to lose on a matter of confidence so he will have to pull the plug on his own and explain why. They are saying now on CBC Radio that the BQ might be reluctant to go the polls and will vote the crime bill in saying that it is what Quebecers want. I don't know what other confidence measures are out there to vote on in the next three weeks that the Tories can't get the BQ not to support.

[Canuck E Stan]

I don't know what other confidence measures are out there to vote on in the next three weeks that the Tories can't get the BQ not to support.

The Clean Air Act seems to have Liberals pushing on this issue. Maybe the Conservatives will push it further.

[jdobbin]

The Clean Air Act seems to have Liberals pushing on this issue. Maybe the Conservatives will push it further.

I didn't think the Clean Air Act came up for a vote in the next three weeks.

I have said Kelowna in the past but that was voted on recently and the Conservatives let it pass. It is in the Senate now and will there for a while in committee.

The crime bills might have been the trigger but the Liberals have said they would vote on three of them and the Bloq could vote on the fourth.

If there is going to be an election, it might simply be because Harper calls it himself.

[White Doors]

Remember how a conservative government would 'tear this country apart'?

haha

I hope people remember this and do are not so easily frightened in the future.

The hubris of the LPOC knows no bounds.

[ScottSA]

Remember how a conservative government would 'tear this country apart'?

haha

I hope people remember this and do are not so easily frightened in the future.

The hubris of the LPOC knows no bounds.

Hubris? Oh, you must mean their own notion that the Liberal Party is the "natural governing party"? The notion that led them to decide they could mug the treasury, lie, steal and cheat, all for the "good of Canada"?

The Libs ran on a platform of "RuN aWAy forM tEh rIhgTwING!!!" for a decade and a half, sprinkling the platform with lies and false promises so utterly cynical than after a while even the CBC started ignoring their red books. Until finally it all blew up in their faces with the 'soldiers-in-the-streets' ad, and the final kicker which starkly outlined the cynicism; that the Libs felt the need to tell Canadians that "we're not making this up", like they had so many times before. In fact, like so many times before, it turned out the Libs were making that up too.

I believe the last election probably WAS a protest vote against the Liberals, as CBC and established Canadian milquetoast political culture was quick to assure us. But not the next election. The next election will be for the Conservatives.

[geoffrey]

I got a call from Harper's campaign last night (interrupting the Clapton concert! Oh my, best show ever by the way), seems like they are scurring around. I let my membership expire this year as I no longer really care for the party, and they're still calling. Normally you get the automated messages from Ottawa, but this was a real person.

Sounds like an election is coming up.

[daniel]

...and they're still calling. Normally you get the automated messages from Ottawa, but this was a real person.

Sounds like an election is coming up.

When they call me and I have to speak in the language they understand, I usually tell them not to rely on handouts but to learn work more efficiently and live within their own means.

[jdobbin]

I wonder now with the latest poll today if it will make Harper hesitate about repeating a minority government, especially if he is the one that calls the election.

I think he realizes what happened to Lester Pearson when he failed to win a majority.

[Michael Bluth]

I wonder now with the latest poll today if it will make Harper hesitate about repeating a minority government, especially if he is the one that calls the election.

I think he realizes what happened to Lester Pearson when he failed to win a majority.

The comparison between Harper and Lester Pearson is telling.

Harper surpassed expectations in the '06 election. Has been credited by political pundits from across party lines.

Pearson never surpassed expecations in any election. He has been called one of the weakest campaigners the Federal Liberals have ever had as leader.

[geoffrey]

He has been called one of the weakest campaigners the Federal Liberals have ever had as leader.

He'll lose that title shortly.

[guyser]

He'll lose that title shortly.

And on that geoffrey, I absolutely agree.

[BubberMiley]

(interrupting the Clapton concert! Oh my, best show ever by the way)

Were you always a 50-year-old man?

[Michael Bluth]

He has been called one of the weakest campaigners the Federal Liberals have ever had as leader.

He'll lose that title shortly.

I think Dion is going to be on a very short leash.

The media will give him a little benefit of the doubt to start. If he isn't a lot stronger campaigner than he has been an Opposition Leader you are definitely right.

[geoffrey]

(interrupting the Clapton concert! Oh my, best show ever by the way)

Were you always a 50-year-old man?

It was a good show, the average age there was much younger than 50. I'm a fan of good music, I could care less if it's what my parents grew up to. I listen to lots of more 'modern' music too.