Budget 2007: prelude to a General Election?

[fellowtraveller]

I think it may be.....why not?

Duceppe has been played for a fool at least a couple of times by Harper recently. Quebecers have undoubtedly noticed this. Harper has been passing the gravy to Quebec nonstop. They will have also noticed this....

Layton is, well...nowhere, as usual. His ten minutes of fame happened with Martin.

Dion is never going to excite anybody, including hardcore Liberals. There are persistent rumours that the Liberals already know they have made a mistake in his selection.

The Quebec election will either go to Charest agan (perfect for Harper) or be a weak minority. Either would suit him.

The budget, despite all the whining here and elsewhere, has something for everybody.

I think Harper will

first get this budget through,

then wait until the Quebec election is over

and then fabricate a non confidence vote to bring down his government. He'll pick something juicy like wholesale Senate change, or Afghanistan to force himself out.

Then he will win a majority.

[Topaz]

Well, we don't know how Harper would survive an election . What Harper had done is help the Bloc to fight for separation and using the money from the Feds to do it. Just like all voters want change, the Quebecers may have the same idea and if the Bloc gets a minority govt, Harper will lose support in the rest of Canada. He has already made enemies from NFLD. and Sask. premiers and from what I heard on Duffy last night, one can't blame them for it. Harper zero in on the 25-45 age group, the ones with families but its the "babyboomers" who have the power in numbers. I don't see much for people over 50, with no kids at home. The budget will pass and I can only hope he does call an election. It going to be interesting to see if Peter McKay, who betrayed the PC's is able to beat May!

[jdobbin]

I think Harper will

first get this budget through,

then wait until the Quebec election is over

and then fabricate a non confidence vote to bring down his government. He'll pick something juicy like wholesale Senate change, or Afghanistan to force himself out.

Then he will win a majority.

Let's check the polls. Tories in majority? Nope.

[guyser]

There are persistent rumours that the Liberals already know they have made a mistake in his selection.

Then he will win a majority.

They better be more than just rumours....please be more. Like a plan to remove Dion perhaps. Wont see me complain.

If Harper runs against Dion...??....I can believe it.

[noahbody]

Well, we don't know how Harper would survive an election . What Harper had done is help the Bloc to fight for separation and using the money from the Feds to do it. Just like all voters want change, the Quebecers may have the same idea and if the Bloc gets a minority govt, Harper will lose support in the rest of Canada. He has already made enemies from NFLD. and Sask. premiers and from what I heard on Duffy last night, one can't blame them for it. Harper zero in on the 25-45 age group, the ones with families but its the "babyboomers" who have the power in numbers. I don't see much for people over 50, with no kids at home. The budget will pass and I can only hope he does call an election. It going to be interesting to see if Peter McKay, who betrayed the PC's is able to beat May!

How has he helped the Bloc fight for separation? Last time I checked transfers go to provinces and not a federal party. I think that was a liberal policy that used envelopes. If anything increasing transfers to provinces weakens the separation movement.

[Canadian Blue]

Topaz hates Harper alot. I wouldn't put too much stock into the thinking since it's clearly partisan.

[fellowtraveller]

The longer Harper waits, the more likely he will be rocked with some random scandal..... On the other hand, could the Bloc and Liberals get much weaker than they look now?

May election.

[scribblet]

There won't be an election over the budget, but there could be one over the impending environment legislation and kyoto. If the Liberals force a vote on kyoto Harper could make it a confidence vote.

[jdobbin]

There won't be an election over the budget, but there could be one over the impending environment legislation and kyoto. If the Liberals force a vote on kyoto Harper could make it a confidence vote.

Or he could make it a confidence vote on Martin's private member bill on Kelowna. That would add $5 billion to the budget.

[fellowtraveller]

Kelowna Accord would be a poor choice, guys like Layton would richochet off into some la-la land tangent about the martyrdom of the Noble First Nations that might gain some traction, and deflect the newsbite machine away from Dion.

Kyoto would be a better choice for Harper, but I don't think even Dion is so dumb/naive as to not recognize how horribly vulnerable he is on this subject.

I still think it will be something scary to some provinces, but visceral for the public- like major Senate Reform. Harper is bound to lose any motion that takes gravy from Ontario and Quebec politicians, but it is a dry, safe topic in the end that won't cost him votes.

[Michael Bluth]

I still think it will be something scary to some provinces, but visceral for the public- like major Senate Reform. Harper is bound to lose any motion that takes gravy from Ontario and Quebec politicians, but it is a dry, safe topic in the end that won't cost him votes.

I tend to agree.

Kyoto is a crap shoot. The science is so complex that it could cost the Conservatives the election if it comes down to it.

The only reason a spring election isn't guaranteed is that the Conservative's volunteers are tired, and they may not turn out in enough numbers to push us into majority territory.

Personally, I won't help out very much with a spring election but I'm pretty sure I'll be back in there if we hold off until the fall.

[jdobbin]

Nova Scotia's reaction to the budget has a few people grumbling.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Opinion/9002746.html

The deals allow Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador to receive all the money from the offshore rigs without losing any equalization money from Ottawa. As a Quebecer put it to me this week, using a French expression, Nova Scotia wants the butter and also the money for the butter.

That is what Nova Scotia and Newfoundland want, reasonable or not, and there is little reason for people in other provinces to think this is a good idea.

It is, however, what Mr. Harper promised, many times, while in opposition. His relentless attacks on the issue helped his new party earn credibility with Atlantic voters, who were nervous about him after he said our region suffers from a culture of defeat.

By promising Nova Scotians and Newfoundlanders that we could have the butter and the money for the butter, Mr. Harper helped persuade us that we had a right to both. He could have said, “ You know, Prime Minister Paul Martin has a point here. A cap on revenue is only reasonable."

Instead, he called Mr. Martin a cheat and swore the Tories would never impose a cap. That pressure contributed to Mr. Martin’s ultimate surrender and helped win the deals.

So it was shocking, in last week’s federal budget, when the Tories moved to kill the accords.

I have no idea how this will translate into votes but Williams does have some credibility with those in the Atlantic provinces.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Opinion/567816.html

[Michael Bluth]

It is, however, what Mr. Harper promised, many times, while in opposition. His relentless attacks on the issue helped his new party earn credibility with Atlantic voters, who were nervous about him after he said our region suffers from a culture of defeat.

The Conservatives gained two seats in the region from 2004 to 2006.

Harper has built his credibility by providing competent, non-scary leadership.

With Alberta not fighting the changes to equalization it gives the issue a lot less credibiity.

[fellowtraveller]

With Alberta not fighting the changes to equalization it gives the issue a lot less credibiity.

I don't think Alberta has ever fought any changes to equalization, a reality that is routinely ignored by the press and most citizens.

Doesn't fit their preconceptions, I guess.

[Michael Bluth]

I don't think Alberta has ever fought any changes to equalization, a reality that is routinely ignored by the press and most citizens.

Doesn't fit their preconceptions, I guess.

On May 26th of last year Klein threatened to opt-out of equalization if Alberta wasn't treated "fairly".

Link.

[jdobbin]

It is one furious article after another this week in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland about the budget. They talked about how they crushed the Liberals when they got their backs up previously.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Business/567641.html

It had been hoped that Prime Minister Stephen Harper would bring a new style of government to Ottawa, but that was prior to him taking office. Now it appears the Conservative government is offering nothing but government-as-usual.

Cynically, Harper has been handing out money in Quebec and Ontario, where he has a chance at gaining important seats in a general election. At the same time, he’s breaking his guarantee to vote-deprived Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, while pretending he really isn’t.

By not honouring his promise to exclude non-renewable resource revenue from the calculation of the equalization formula for have-not provinces like Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Saskatchewan, Prime Minister Harper is sending a negative message to Canadian taxpayers, not just those of us who live the affected provinces.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Editorial/567432.html

NOVA SCOTIANS and Newfoundlanders are entitled to their entitlements.

We say this plainly and with no negative connotation whatsoever. We say it because it needs to be said yet again, because those who gave us their word are trying to weasel out of their commitments.

Maybe Elizabeth May was not so stupid after all to pick Nova Scotia to run in?

[jdobbin]

And the response from Newfoundland...

http://www.thetelegram.com/index.cfm?sid=20101&sc=80

The changes may not harm this province: we’re no worse off today than we were before March 19, when the changes were introduced. But they appear to harm potential revenues.

Political promises are a devalued currency at the best of times.

But Harper clearly promised one thing, and did something else.

It could have been worse. But it could have been better, too.

As voters, you decide how that practice should be rewarded.

Dion said Wednesday that he would honor the Accord.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Front/567329.html

OTTAWA — Liberal Leader Stephane Dion promised Wednesday that a Liberal government would respect the offshore accord former premier John Hamm negotiated and remove a cap from the amount of money Nova Scotia can receive in offshore revenue and equalization.

"I’m against the cap," Mr. Dion told reporters. "I would honour these agreements. I would not put any cap."

[Michael Bluth]

By not honouring his promise to exclude non-renewable resource revenue from the calculation of the equalization formula for have-not provinces like Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Saskatchewan, Prime Minister Harper is sending a negative message to Canadian taxpayers, not just those of us who live the affected provinces.

Saskatchewan is a have province. Pesky thing those facts...

[jdobbin]

And the view from Saskatchewan:

http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix...3a-d7cfbe9d2573

The province had called on Prime Minister Stephen Harper to keep the Conservative election promise to exclude non-renewable resource revenues from the equalization program, which would mean about $800 million in annual federal funding for Saskatchewan.

The federal budget that survived a vote on Tuesday offers either 50 per cent or 100 per cent exclusion of natural resources -- whichever suits a jurisdiction best -- but also puts a cap on equalization based on a province's relative fiscal capacity compared to Ontario.

The cap means Saskatchewan gets $226 million this year and nothing next year.

[Michael Bluth]

That article doesn't sound so furious.

[jdobbin]

Canada's government is now 14% bigger after two Tory budgets says Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/is...75-5983a9455437

The Finance Minister dismisses any criticism that he has become a big spender even when his two-year binge will total $24.4-billion. As National Post columnist Andrew Coyne calculates, Mr. Flaherty is now "the biggest-spending finance minister in the history of Canada." It's a sad achievement, but one well-earned since Canada's New Government is now 14% bigger after two Flaherty budgets.

Because the Finance Minister cannot refute the math he has tried to justify his recklessness. For example, he has downplayed the spending numbers by saying two-thirds of it should not be counted since the cash will be transferred to other levels of government. This is absurd. Conservatives in opposition routinely berated Liberal spending increases without discounting the billions of dollars in transfers the previous government delivered to the provinces and municipalities. What's the difference?

Mr. Flaherty is also exaggerating the size of his tax relief package. He has said, "Canada's new government has introduced nearly $38-billion in individual tax relief over [three years]." Canadian taxpayers should be so lucky. The 2007 budget did provide modest relief to low-income Canadians and families with children. It also reaffirmed already announced tax breaks for seniors, including pension splitting.

If the tax relief was as large as the minister claims, it would be reflected in the budget's revenue tables. Yet the only tax reduction that has actually resulted in a decrease in Ottawa's revenue bite is the one point GST cut.

Hardly the small government party the Tories said they would be.

[Michael Bluth]

Canada's government is now 14% bigger after two Tory budgets says Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

Hardly the small government party the Tories said they would be.

The small government slag is a very inaccurate attack on the Government.

They have restored funding to the provinces. Funding that is desperately needed. Why not add some truth to your posts?

[geoffrey]

Saskatchewan is a have province. Pesky thing those facts...

Only Alberta and Ontario were in '06. Where do you get your facts?

[Michael Bluth]

Only Alberta and Ontario were in '06. Where do you get your facts?

Jerry Ritz. MP for Battlefords-Lloydminster.

“Whatever envelope (the money) comes labelled in, Saskatchewan people are happy,” Mr. Ritz said, adding that “they're proud to be a have-province.”

Where do you get your facts?

[jdobbin]

Only Alberta and Ontario were in '06. Where do you get your facts?

I believe you're right, Geoffrey.

The government of Saskatchewan was a "have not" province in 2006.