IS there a election coming with days or weeks?

[Topaz]

In the news, it says that Harper is planning a election within a week. A e-mail has been tossed about to the Conservatives telling them to be ready. Now, why would Harper want a election now? My thinking has always been that Harper would wait until the budget and look at the polls (which he doesn't believe in) and he get a higher % , he would feel secure enough to call an election. As long as this country, has been put into a war, I feel we shouldn't let a majority government rule Canada. For one thing they need 7000 new people every year and the military isn't getting them. By the way, The US military isn't getting theirs either and they have gone were the young people are..YOU TUBE. Kids can join there on this website. Harper with a majority could bring in a draft. He could also further the "terrorism" rules and we could lose alot more of our civil liberties. I just don't trust this guy, to give he a power that can be abused in ways of the abuse Bush has done then what some Libs have done. Also, Harper says he doesn't want an election now, so we'll have to wait and see.

[Michael Bluth]

The memo says the Conservatives have to be ready for an election in the coming days and weeks.

The budget is on Monday so that timeline works.

The Conservatives will bring in a draft for Afghanistan? Who are you kidding?

I'll give you credit for bringing scary-scary-scary up to the utterly ridiculous.

[madmax]

There is a budget in a short period of time. No opposition parties have the stomach for an election at this time. The Public doesn't want one. It isn't going to happen and if it does, someone is going to pay a backlash for this political opportunism. This could be the CPC or the LPC/BQ/NDP whoever takes the blame for not wanting to govern. Whoever it is will feel the wrath of the public. I only know of political hacks or enthusiasts and media pundits who are interested in this. Joe public will be very very very angry if there is one this year.

[Michael Bluth]

Joe public will be very very very angry if there is one this year.

Joe Public just won't vote.

Anybody who is going to be very very very angy is much more politically engaged than your average Canadian. Party affiliation or not.

[Canadian Blue]

For one thing they need 7000 new people every year and the military isn't getting them. By the way, The US military isn't getting theirs either and they have gone were the young people are

A recruiter came to my high school, the military has always gone where the young people are it's nothing new. By the way, Paul Martin was PM when that happened, I'm not sure if you remember who he was.

Kids can join there on this website. Harper with a majority could bring in a draft.

Yeah right, at the absolute horror of most military personnel, and the majority of the Canadian public. This would spell defeat for Harper, and I believe he want's back to back majorities.

He could also further the "terrorism" rules and we could lose alot more of our civil liberties.

Not in our system.

just don't trust this guy

Thank's for pointing out the obvious.

I doubt we'll see an election, I don't think anyone want's an election. I find that a minority government is working just fine.

[August1991]

Harper isn't going to call an election so the only way we'll have one is if the government is defeated. And the only way that will happen is if all three opposition parties vote against the government. IOW, Harper requires only one opposition party to support him and the government won't fall.

There's a chance all three opposition parties will vote against the budget but I'm fairly certain that the BQ will go along with it.

I have no doubt Harper wouldn't mind an election but he knows he wouldn't get a majority if he called one now.

There's another possibility. Harper could do as Mulroney in 1988 and call an election based on Liberal obstruction in the Senate. That might work.

[fellowtraveller]

There are a couple of issues that harper could force an election on....obviously a contentious budget is an example.

If I were him though, I'd table a sweeping Senate reform bill including Constitutional change, immediately after the budget passes.. There are a few levels this could work in his favour....

[jdobbin]

There are a couple of issues that harper could force an election on....obviously a contentious budget is an example.

If I were him though, I'd table a sweeping Senate reform bill including Constitutional change, immediately after the budget passes.. There are a few levels this could work in his favour....

How would he implement a Constitutional change without the provinces involved?

[Michael Bluth]

How would be implement a Constitutional change without the provinces involved?

It's not a matter of implementation. Just needs to be defeated on a bill at some point in the process.

[geoffrey]

How would be implement a Constitutional change without the provinces involved?

It's not a matter of implementation. Just needs to be defeated on a bill at some point in the process.

I wouldn't risk his current high Ontario support on it.

[Michael Bluth]

I wouldn't risk his current high Ontario support on it.

My feeling is he'll tie it into budget financing for environmental measures.

The measures will move strongly towards meeting Kyoto targets, but not enough to actually meet them.

With a real "made in Canada" plan on the environment the Conservatives probably could go to the polls.

[geoffrey]

With a real "made in Canada" plan on the environment the Conservatives probably could go to the polls.

They could hit the polls today rather successfully against the current Liberal machine. I'm not sure if Harper will want that though.

He knows another minority means the end of his leadership, he's only going to really call an election when he's sure he'll be around the month after.

[scribblet]

He knows another minority means the end of his leadership, he's only going to really call an election when he's sure he'll be around the month after.

I doubt that - maybe if he loses seats, but not if retains the same or gains some.

[madmax]

He knows another minority means the end of his leadership, he's only going to really call an election when he's sure he'll be around the month after.

I doubt that - maybe if he loses seats, but not if retains the same or gains some.

I doubt that as well. However should the CPC instigate the election and not get a Majority, the party should question why the election took place, when they could have continued to govern. This would be a stupid decision like Paul Martin made. He was in charge of a Majority and called an election to obtain a Minority. What an idiot. The in a panic puts an election date out there, so that he can lose his minority vs govern with what he earned earlier.

Govern with what you got, and if you don't want to earn your living governing, you should not be re elected.

Politics has become a real letdown for the public. So far, this government (all parties) have chosen to accomplish very little. Gamesmanship on all sides, CPC included, have shown the public that these elected officials are more interested in playing games upon one another vs doing their elected duties.

I don't see the advantage of having an election. I don't believe the numbers will change enough to create anything but another minority government.

[madmax]

Joe public will be very very very angry if there is one this year.

Joe Public just won't vote.

Very possible. But alot of people whom moved their votes to the CPC may not vote either. Low voter turnout isn't beneficial to the CPC. The CPC base comes out, but that isn't enough to affect change in this country. Low voter turnout, has been beneficial to the Liberals vs the CPC or the NDP. I have been looking at voter turnouts and these voters increases went to the CPC and the NDP when voter turnout increased.

Anybody who is going to be very very very angy is much more politically engaged than your average Canadian. Party affiliation or not.

I agree.

[Michael Bluth]

I always see "anger at an early election" as a cop out.

The one example the media points to is David Peterson in 1990.

That was a very different case. He had a majority and went to the polls less than three years into his mandate. Plus there were a number of other issues, fundraising scandal, bad economy, NDP doing well Nationally that lead to the Rae squeaker.

There is no real other example that fits the "anger" paradigm.

The average length of a majority Government in Canada before they call the next election is a little under 18 months.

Harper has been in power for 13 + months. So it isn't that far off the average.

Look how successful the Liberals were in the last election trying to make an issue out of an "early election".

[madmax]

Look how successful the Liberals were in the last election trying to make an issue out of an "early election".

That was another credibility issue. The election was already going to be early. Paul Martin essentially called one. Bringing down the government a few months early, one that wasn't intending to do any work with any party and was going to be campaigning their way out of troubles needed to have its plug pulled. The Public was ready for this.

However, should that plug had been pulled when Stephen Harper wanted it done, when he missed an opportunity to support elements in the budget that his supporters would have approved of, he did a disservice to government and would have brought down the government in an attempt to win an election. It didn't work and he handed over the agenda to the Liberals and the NDP. Not a very smart move for a party leader.

Had Martin not called an election on his own in a panic stricken TV announcement, he could well have governed another full year.

The only people buying the "early" election spin where Liberal Partisans, not the public.

But there is no reason for this government to say we need an election. But if there is an election, they will all be giving reasons why we need an election.

I don't.

[madmax]

The one example the media points to is David Peterson in 1990.

That was a very different case. He had a majority and went to the polls less than three years into his mandate. Plus there were a number of other issues, fundraising scandal, bad economy, NDP doing well Nationally that lead to the Rae squeaker.

There is some substance to your opinion.

from wiki

The NDP entered the campaign with low expectations, as the Liberals still held a significant lead in opinion polls and all signs indicated that they would win another majority government. Rae later acknowledged that he did not expect to win the election, and planned to leave electoral politics at some point in the next sitting of the legislature.[36] A number of prominent MPPs, including Richard Johnston, Marion Bryden and David Reville, chose not to seek re-election. Floyd Laughren was also planning to retire, but had not finalized his plans when Peterson dropped the writ.

Clearly no NDP veterans were expecting to run let alone win and early election.

And here is the rest of the story

The election results were nonetheless a surprise to political observers across the province, even to longtime NDP supporters. The NDP was elected to a strong majority government with 74 seats. The popular vote was very close, with the NDP outpolling the Liberals 37% to 34%. Several ridings were won by narrow margins. However, the NDP managed to take many seats from the Liberals in the Greater Toronto Area, and also did better than ever before in many other cities and rural areas. Due to a quirk in the first-past-the-post system, this decimated the Liberal caucus. The Liberals lost 59 seats, the worst defeat in their history and the second-worst defeat for a governing party in Ontario. The NDP even managed to unseat Peterson in his own riding.

Seat wise, it was a landslide.

If you compare the Peterson Liberals to the Chretian/Martin Liberals, the fact that Harper couldn't deliver the Federal Liberals their worst defeat, probably says more about the Leader during these past 2 elections.

Peterson is the best known example. It isn't a good match for the current federal situation like you have stated. However, it is still a good example of what can go wrong. Same for Kim Campbell and John Turner.