Quebec's in play for all three major parties.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Here are the numbers for vote intention in Québec.

Bloc - 34% (down *huge* - 8.1 points from the election)

LPC - 29% (up big - 8.3 points from the election)

CPC - 23% (down a bit 1.6 points from the election)

Here is the link.

Very interesting stuff.

Looks like the Liberals and the Conservatives are both poised to pick up seats at the expense of the Bloc.

Wow, a majority could be in play....

[Canadian Blue]

How did the Bloc go down so much in support, I wonder if Afghanistan isn't coming into play as much. As well it look's like the Conservatives have gained compared to what previous polls had said.

[Ricki Bobbi]

How did the Bloc go down so much in support, I wonder if Afghanistan isn't coming into play as much. As well it look's like the Conservatives have gained compared to what previous polls had said.

My vibe on the Quebec results.

Afghanistan isn't an issue.

The Conservatives look like they have neutralized the environment as an issue, but need to keep at it to keep the issue off the front burner.

Québecoise are getting a little tired of Gilles Duceppe. So they are looking at their Federalist options. The Conservatives and Liberals splitting 55 to 60% of the vote in Québec is terrible news for the Bloc, so-so for the Liberals and great news for the Conservatives...

[August1991]

The real story in Quebec is the upcoming provincial election.

As to this federal poll, it partly reflects the problems with the PQ. The increase of the PLC would translate into a few more seats in Montreal. IOW, the traditional Liberal vote has come back.

The CPC will maintain its 10 or seats.

Nevertheless, the BQ under 40% is surprising, particularly for Boisclair.

[jdobbin]

The real story in Quebec is the upcoming provincial election.

As to this federal poll, it partly reflects the problems with the PQ. The increase of the PLC would translate into a few more seats in Montreal. IOW, the traditional Liberal vote has come back.

The CPC will maintain its 10 or seats.

Nevertheless, the BQ under 40% is surprising, particularly for Boisclair.

You've seen the two polls showing the PQ down?

Some were saying on radio today that a simultaneous election in a few weeks in Quebec and Canada is possible to fracture the sovereignty organizers.

I think the Liberal vote is coming back. I think a Quebec leader helps and I think that sponsorship slagging where it is associated with Quebec bashing has probably hurt Conservative from taking some of the BQ decline for themselves.

Overall though, Duceppe has been a non-entity. I don't know if that is the case for the French language press as well but in English language press, you can't find anything on what Duceppe thinks or what his party is doing.

[geoffrey]

Overall though, Duceppe has been a non-entity. I don't know if that is the case for the French language press as well but in English language press, you can't find anything on what Duceppe thinks or what his party is doing.

Perhaps because what he does or says is irrelevant in English Canada?

[jdobbin]

Perhaps because what he does or says is irrelevant in English Canada?

In a minority government, I am wary of taking them for granted but I generally can't find anything written on them as to their positions.

I wonder if that is true in Quebec as well.

[tml12]

Perhaps because what he does or says is irrelevant in English Canada?

In a minority government, I am wary of taking them for granted but I generally can't find anything written on them as to their positions.

I wonder if that is true in Quebec as well.

The Bloc is a left-wing party that stands for "standing up for the interests of Quebec" usually with all leftist sort of stuff that they, like the NDP, can promise because they'll never be in government.

[Catchme]

Here are the numbers for vote intention in Québec.

Bloc - 34% (down *huge* - 8.1 points from the election)

LPC - 29% (up big - 8.3 points from the election)

CPC - 23% (down a bit 1.6 points from the election)

Here is the link.

Looks like the Liberals and the Conservatives are both poised to pick up seats at the expense of the Bloc.

Wow, a majority could be in play....

No, doesn't look likre the CPC are poised to pick up any seats in PQ, they are down 1.6, the Liberals have picked up.

A majority could be in play, a LIBERAL majority that is!

I would say Dion being leader has come into play, with a Liberal jump like that, oh how the PQers are going to hate the CPC NFL attack ads of Dion. LOLOLOL

[August1991]

You've seen the two polls showing the PQ down?

I started another thread in the provincial category.

Overall though, Duceppe has been a non-entity. I don't know if that is the case for the French language press as well but in English language press, you can't find anything on what Duceppe thinks or what his party is doing.

I disagree.

There has even been talk of putsch in the PQ and bringing back Landry or having Duceppe become leader. (That won't happen but Duceppe is not a non-entity.)

[geoffrey]

A majority could be in play, a LIBERAL majority that is!

The GTA and Montreal aren't enough to carry a majority unfortunately.

[Ricki Bobbi]

As to this federal poll, it partly reflects the problems with the PQ. The increase of the PLC would translate into a few more seats in Montreal. IOW, the traditional Liberal vote has come back.

The CPC will maintain its 10 or seats.

I think the poll is a little better than maintaining their 10 seats. I think as many as 18 are possible. 15 a realistic goal.

Add seats in the Maritimes, 905 and the prairies at that point they are in sniffing distance of a majority.

[geoffrey]

I think the poll is a little better than maintaining their 10 seats. I think as many as 18 are possible. 15 a realistic goal.

Where? Saying that shows a bit of a misunderstanding about Quebec's politics (which I don't claim to know either). Most CPC support in concentrated in one area... and those ridings are won.

Throw some riding names out there that you think the CPC can pick up in Quebec next election. Remember the one the CPC will likely lose from the Liberal that dropped out and told his people to vote CPC.

[Catchme]

The CPC has maxed out its riding's available in PQ and it is down almost 2 % as well, this mean there could actually be a LOSS of a seat or 2, not a gain.

Talk about seeing something that isn't there, hows does being down points translate into picking up seats? Fact is it doesn't, it is just wishful musing at best or outright propaganda at worst.

[jdobbin]

I disagree.

There has even been talk of putsch in the PQ and bringing back Landry or having Duceppe become leader. (That won't happen but Duceppe is not a non-entity.)

Non-entity in that he barely gets mentioned in Parliament and barely gets English language coverage. The last major stories on him I saw were on January 25. Parliament has been sitting since Monday and barely a whisper have I heard over that time. As I said, I don't know what the French media is saying but for a minority government, I had expected to see Duceppe more front and center.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Where? Saying that shows a bit of a misunderstanding about Quebec's politics (which I don't claim to know either). Most CPC support in concentrated in one area... and those ridings are won.

Throw some riding names out there that you think the CPC can pick up in Quebec next election. Remember the one the CPC will likely lose from the Liberal that dropped out and told his people to vote CPC.

I know I have already done this for you before Geoff, but here you go. Six 'realistic' seats....

Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean

Québec

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier (Assuming André Arthur doesn't run again. Cancer will do that to you...)

Richmond—Arthabaska

[tml12]

Where? Saying that shows a bit of a misunderstanding about Quebec's politics (which I don't claim to know either). Most CPC support in concentrated in one area... and those ridings are won.

Throw some riding names out there that you think the CPC can pick up in Quebec next election. Remember the one the CPC will likely lose from the Liberal that dropped out and told his people to vote CPC.

I know I have already done this for you before Geoff, but here you go. Six 'realistic' seats....

Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean

Québec

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier (Assuming André Arthur doesn't run again. Cancer will do that to you...)

Richmond—Arthabaska

I'll take your word for it...with the implosion of the PQ/BQ alliance, anything is possible.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I know I have already done this for you before Geoff, but here you go. Six 'realistic' seats....

Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean

Québec

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier (Assuming André Arthur doesn't run again. Cancer will do that to you...)

Richmond—Arthabaska

I'll take your word for it...with the implosion of the PQ/BQ alliance, anything is possible.

That is the reason I have picked those seats. I haven't seen regional numbers but I am guessing the Conservative resurgence is due to picking up soft separatists as opposed to the angry Liberals who voted for them last time.

[tml12]

Right, or if they don't want to vote for a dysfunctional Bloc.

[Catchme]

Where? Saying that shows a bit of a misunderstanding about Quebec's politics (which I don't claim to know either). Most CPC support in concentrated in one area... and those ridings are won.

Throw some riding names out there that you think the CPC can pick up in Quebec next election. Remember the one the CPC will likely lose from the Liberal that dropped out and told his people to vote CPC.

I know I have already done this for you before Geoff, but here you go. Six 'realistic' seats....

Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

Roberval—Lac-Saint-Jean

Québec

Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier (Assuming André Arthur doesn't run again. Cancer will do that to you...)

Richmond—Arthabaska

Chicoutimi- Le Ford - 6000 votes seperating Bloc and CPC and a 8% decrease in that area would not help the CPC

Gaspesie -IlesdlM - 4200 votes separate the Bloc and the CPC a 8% decrease in that area would not help the CPC

Portneuf -JC - Here perhaps the CPC may have a chance if the Independants are split between Bloc and CPC, though do not know Andre Arthur's leanings if they are more to the right or left. One could judge from that, does anyone know?

Richmond-A - There is 7000 votes separating the CPC and the Bloc an 8% in that area would not help the CPC

Roberval-LSJ - There is 2500 votes separating the Bloc and the CPC, here could be the best chance for the CPC, but even 8% loss for the Bloc would still mean they keep it.

More importantly one must remember it is NOT the CPC picking up the 8% decline in Bloc polling numbers, but the Liberals, and that the CPC themselves have declined by close to 2% in PQ.

If the Liberals have picked up 8% in the areas that the CPC and them are close in, and the CPC has lost 2% then the CPC could lose seats. Or if the CPC lose 2% in the areas where the Bloc is close, and did not lose any support, the CPC could lose that seat with a 2% decline.

One riding that the Bloc could take from the CPC if they lost 2% there and the Bloc gain is Beauport—Limoilou there is only 1000 and bit seats separating the 2 parties in favour of the CPC.

Another riding that could be lost to the CPC, if they lose 2% there, if the Bloq has not lost any ground, is Louis-Hébert, where there is only 200 votes separating the CPC and Bloq.

There is also Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles where there is only 1000 vote difference between the CPC and Bloc and would be up for Bloq grabs if the CPC declined 2% there as well.

When looking at the provincial breakdowns, the 10 seats held in PQ by the CPC are only in serious contention with Bloq in the 3 ridings mentioned above. And are in no contention with the Liberals for any.

From this, we can see the 8% increase in the Liberal numbers in no way gives the CPC chance at any more seats. Nor does the Bloq decrease of 8% appear to affect the ridings they are in contention with the CPC.

It would seem the CPC decline of 2% has more potential to affect them, than the 8% decline of the Bloq as the Bloq votes have quite obviously gone to the Liberals in ridings where the Bloq and Liberals were close.

So NO those 10 riding are not won by the CPC, 3 appear to be on shakey ground. This would leave them potential for only holding 7 seats in PQ, with just a decline of 2%.

http://www.elections.ca/scripts/OVR2006/default.html

[Catchme]

Funny how, facts seem to get in the way of CPC propaganda, so much they try to bury it.

[White Doors]

Who's your PM Poser!

live it and LOVE it.

[Catchme]

Who's your PM Poser!

live it and LOVE it.

Not my PM, just a body occupying the PMO temporairily.

And why would/should I love it? He has done nothing good for Canada since he came in, polls reflect just that too! The only thing I love is that he won't be occupying the PMO long.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Not my PM, just a body occupying the PMO temporairily.

And why would/should I love it? He has done nothing good for Canada since he came in, polls reflect just that too! The only thing I love is that he won't be occupying the PMO long.

As a Canadian he is your Prime Minsiter.

Funny how facts can get in the way of the indignation of entitles lefties.

Funny how, facts seem to get in the way of CPC propaganda, so much they try to bury it.

[Catchme]

LOLOL

See you did not address the errors you made regarding the CPC in PQ