Prediction Time!

[Neal.F.]

Election prediction Project: Final numbers: LP: 69 PC: 26 NDP: 8

I'm not sure I agree with all their predictions. I think the NDP may well get a ninth seat....Oshawa. and hold Hamilton west for #10

I also expect David Tsubouchi, Janet Ecker, Frank Klees, Elizabeth Witmer & Diane Cunningham to hold for the Tories in spite of what Election predicton has to say.

It's all going to depend on who turns out to vote.

The NDP never die, because their supporters are true believers and will come out to vote come hell or high water. They also attract those who say "a pox on both your houses!" They could surprise, and if enough people do vote for them, it could upset the Liberal applecart further. Not so much in terms of NDP seats, but it might once again allow many Tories to hold theirs.

IF that is, Tories are not too despondent to bother to go out. They should mobilize every effort to get the vote out, if for no other reason than to save the furniture. Flaherty, or Clement would all have a better chance of unseating the Lieberals if they can score 35-40 seats instead of a paltry 26.

Another factor is Liberal smugness. If the Liberals get 50% in the polls, that's one thing, but will they be so self-confident as to not bother going out to vote?

Liberal supporters tend to be younger, and less inclined to get out on voting day than Conservatives who tend to be older and take voting more seriously, even as a responsibility.

This election could be much closer than the pundits are saying IF all the above come into play. If neither Liberals Nor tories come out in great enough numbers, the NDP could surprise many. I've heard that Howard Hamptomn was seen clearly as the best among the three after the debate.. The real worry, is that as they go to cast their ballots, many soft votes may just go to the NDP in protest, and we'll have 1990 all over again. Not likely, but you never know.

Or it could be even more lopsided for the Liberals if they get their vote out, and the Tories fail.

I'm going to call it as: Lib: 58 PC: 35 NDP 10

I simply can't believe that many Ontarians could be so stupid and actually vote Liberal. I can't help but think that mnany will think of Dalton while in line, and mark their X somewhere else. I can't see it as anything more than a one-term housecleaning. In spite of my prediction, I'm praying for a miracle: a slight Tory majority, or a Lieberal minority, so Dalton can be gone in two years, before he does too much damage.

What are your final comments and numbers?

[Pellaken]

LIB-70

PC-24

NDP-9

[westcoast99]

Liberal Majority

Edited August 12, 2015 by Gugsy

[Neal.F.]

Numbers like that make a Tory comeback in 4 years realistic.

A well placed friend is predicting Liberal minority.

Lib: 50, PC 39 NDP 14. Personally I don't see the Dippers getiing any higher than 10.

Most people however are predicting 65+ for Dilton's Doilies.

[Mr. Chater]

LIB-70

PC-24

NDP-9

I'de have to be with Pellaken. Seems most believable and realistic.

[sir_springer]

We are seeing provincially what is the reality for the NDP federally.

Even though their vote is up about 3%...

They're nowhere in actual seats.

Vote spread too thin.

All this crap about Layton making big gains, even becoming Leader of the Opposition is just that: crap.

The NDP are finished federally, won't make party status.

[Greg]

You might want to check out the Election Predication Project. They have predict the following:

Liberal Party: 69

Progressive Conservative: 26

New Democratic Party: 8

Lots of great commentary on individual ridings.

[Pellaken]

Lib-71

PC-25

NDP-7

looks like that's official.

8 needed for party status

[Ronda]

I heard the CBC talking about the NDP not qualifying for party status and saying that the Liberals would probably change the law and make it 7 seats required so that the NDP could still "participate". I sure bet they'd do that if it was the PCs. I am pretty sure though, that the Liberals will now (as opposed to before) change or make whatever laws they want and no one will be able to do a thing about it. So much for lefty liberals wanting more than anything to prevent concentration of power.

[Pellaken]

I dont know how that would work. but it would be a good idea

[Mr. Chater]

I heard the CBC talking about the NDP not qualifying for party status and saying that the Liberals would probably change the law and make it 7 seats required so that the NDP could still "participate". I sure bet they'd do that if it was the PCs. I am pretty sure though, that the Liberals will now (as opposed to before) change or make whatever laws they want and no one will be able to do a thing about it. So much for lefty liberals wanting more than anything to prevent concentration of power.

I think that is somewhat sad, changing rules for a party to "participate".

[sir_springer]

CTV Newsworld has stated that McGuinty has made it clear that he has no intentions of altering the rules to accomodate the NDP.

Frankly, good.

I have absolutely no use for socialism, period.

[Neal.F.]

The NDP's ability to split the anti Tory vote In Ontario is a good thing, and frankly a neccessary evil.

If they fizzle, there's a very good chance the Liberals will be in for a long , long time.

[Pellaken]

Springer, the NDP is no longer socialist.

they are just very left wing. we want a social-welfare state, not a socialist state.

and they ARE different things

just as different as Stockwell Day, and Joe Clark.