Liberals, Tories in dead heat

[gerryhatrick]

Liberals, Tories in dead heat

OTTAWA — The leaderless federal Liberals have caught up to Stephen Harper's Tories in electoral popularity for the first time since the federal election campaign, according to a new poll that shows the parties in a dead heat.

The survey, conducted for The Globe and Mail-CTV News, finds that the two parties would each receive 32 per cent of the votes were an election to be held today.

It also finds that in such an election, Bob Rae would be the favourite Liberal leadership candidate to take on Stephen Harper.[

snip

Perhaps the most sobering results for the Conservatives are in Quebec, where the party has been in a steady drop since May. At that time, it was the first choice of 30 per cent of Quebec voters, compared with 16 per cent today. The party received 25 per cent of Quebec votes in the Jan. 23 election.

By contrast, the Quebec numbers are good news for the Liberals, who are the first choice of 28 per cent of Quebeckers, up seven percentage points from January

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/National/home

I could offer a bevy of reasons that would explain why I think this is happening, but I'll just point out one. Ok, two.

The freeze out of the press and the continuous finger pointing at the Liberals.

Canadians are starting to see this Government as petulant and immature, and that's quite the turn off.

[gc1765]

Wow, the liberals sure caught up fast. I wonder if it will last?

[Ricki Bobbi]

Wow, the liberals sure caught up fast. I wonder if it will last?

No it won't last. The Liberals are getting a lot of attention because of the leadership race.

Aren't they Canada's Natural Governing Party and they are celebrating a tie? whatever ...

Wait until they have a leader than the warts will start to show.

[geoffrey]

The Liberals are enjoying constant publicity. And Quebec likes the fact that Dion is a hopeful. Once he's out, those numbers will drop considerably.

And it all depends on the poll:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/13507 (36% to 32%)

[Ricki Bobbi]

The Liberals are enjoying constant publicity. And Quebec likes the fact that Dion is a hopeful. Once he's out, those numbers will drop considerably.

And it all depends on the poll:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/13507 (36% to 32%)

There you go. The Conservatives are exactly where they were on election night.

With countless hours of free positive coverage the Liberals have gained a whole 1.8%. Wow, how much will they actually fall when the leader is picked???

[gc1765]

With countless hours of free positive coverage the Liberals have gained a whole 1.8%.

You mean like the anti-israel accusations that have been in the media so much lately? The leadership contest has so far been a lot of attacking eachother, so if anything we've been seeing the "dirt" on these potential leaders rather than the positives.

[jdobbin]

Once again the news is Quebec. Harper needs to find some way to reach Quebec. They are running third place there.

To reach a majority, the Tories need to make gains in Quebec or Ontario. Those are where the seats are.

[gerryhatrick]

The Liberals are enjoying constant publicity. And Quebec likes the fact that Dion is a hopeful. Once he's out, those numbers will drop considerably.

And it all depends on the poll:

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/...em/itemID/13507 (36% to 32%)

Ah, but that poll was Oct 10-12. This new one is Oct 12-15.

And most of the "constant publicity" has been negative. One more poll in a week or so will show a true trend, if there is one.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Ah, but that poll was Oct 10-12. This new one is Oct 12-15.

And most of the "constant publicity" has been negative. One more poll in a week or so will show a true trend, if there is one.

Ahhh, but you ignored it all together and never even mentioned it.

If one were to believe your posts it would appear that the Conservatives have been in freefall in the opinion polls, Harper does *everything* Bush tells him and the 'social conservative' agenda is the driving force behind the party.

In reality the polls have been mixed, Harper and Bush have had their disagreements and there has been no social policy legislation put forth by the Government.

[gerryhatrick]

Ah, but that poll was Oct 10-12. This new one is Oct 12-15.

And most of the "constant publicity" has been negative. One more poll in a week or so will show a true trend, if there is one.

Ahhh, but you ignored it all together and never even mentioned it.

Why would I mention that poll in this topic? It was posted as another topic. That would be cross posting.

If one were to believe your posts it would appear that the Conservatives have been in freefall in the opinion polls,

It's the polls Ricki, not my posts. I understand you have a fixation on me, but I'm not the one doing the polling.

[watching&waiting]

Once again I must point out the silliness of polls and reading too much into them. I still believe that Harper only needs to break into the seat rich areas in southeren Ont and Toronto, and that would give them a majority with or without Quebec. I would preferr to have Quebec on side, but it is not a must. I worry that in Quebec any seats shook loose from the Liberals will go to the Bloc before they go to the CPC, but it does not bother me, as the Bloc would not serve the Liberals, in any real votes. Plus Qubecers will soon start to see the shine come off the Liberals once Dion is ousted.

As for the rest of Canada goes, I see that the most contencious issues one being the role in Afghanistan, will be quite easy to address should it have to be at election time. I always wondered why Harper never really tried to sell the peope on this issue, and I now wonder if he is not just letting it sit there to be bantered about by the others, so he could then expalin it and make the other seem silly for their opposition. It may just be me, but I do not see the mission as a negative and I really wonder why so very little has been done to show this to Canadians.

Once the Liberal leader is chosen it will then be much easier to see where that is going to go. I still say Rae is CPC's best chance to break into seat rich Ont. But Iggy will have some support in Quebec, but I am not sure about him being able to hold the seats in and around Toronto. He would probably have a better chance then Rae would. The Atlantic provinces will probably swing both ways depending on the efforts put there by each party. The west will be CPC almost exclusively. There would be no chance of the liberals being able to come to power in this. At least not for quite some time, and a total change of direction.

The polls that are taken while there is no election call, are really not very accurate of anything, If and when we get close to an election call then and only then will these ever make sense. But even then they should be looked at with a questioning mind.

[Shakeyhands]

Once the Liberal leader is chosen it will then be much easier to see where that is going to go. I still say Rae is CPC's best chance to break into seat rich Ont. But Iggy will have some support in Quebec, but I am not sure about him being able to hold the seats in and around Toronto. He would probably have a better chance then Rae would. The Atlantic provinces will probably swing both ways depending on the efforts put there by each party. The west will be CPC almost exclusively. There would be no chance of the liberals being able to come to power in this. At least not for quite some time, and a total change of direction.

I think you guys MAY be reading too much in to the taste left by Rae's NDP Gov't of the early 90's. I was a university student at the time and couldnt stomach him, wanted him out so badly I could taste it. Then we got two terms of Harris/Eves.

I don't think that Rae's past will be much of an issue, the people I know don't seem to be upset by what happend and relaize that he was just trying to deal with the recession, however I work in the Private Sector, can't say for sure how our Public Service compatriots feel, though the one person I do know in that sector votes liberal most of the time anyway.... This hope that Ontario won't accept Rae, I think is just hopefulness on your part, my bet it 2nd ballot. Iggy is killing himself. Its going to Rae and its going to be an interesting federal election when it happens.

[cybercoma]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...y/National/home

I could offer a bevy of reasons that would explain why I think this is happening, but I'll just point out one. Ok, two.

The freeze out of the press and the continuous finger pointing at the Liberals.

Canadians are starting to see this Government as petulant and immature, and that's quite the turn off.

From your Strategic Council post:

Mr. Harper is seen as the best prime minister when put up against any of the four leading contenders for the Liberal mantle

[daniel]

From your Strategic Council post:

Mr. Harper is seen as the best prime minister when put up against any of the four leading contenders for the Liberal mantle

The same kind of comment was made of Paul Martin.

Harper's Common Sense Revolution, Lite hasn't taken full effect yet. Southern Ontarians may have to choose between repeating the full Common Sense Revolution or possibly Bob Rae again.

Mind you, Rae had some tough decisions to make when he inherited the recession. If Harper doesn't screw up the economy, it'll be different because the Liberals all have government experience unlike the NDP government of 1990. But credit Rae for turning the Ontario economy around from a recession to the fastest growing region of the G8 in his final year.

[Figleaf]

Edited July 28, 2007 by Figleaf

[Figleaf]

... one person I do know in that sector votes liberal most of the time anyway....

You mean Liberal, don't you?

[betsy]

Pundits are saying that the poll result could very well be because of the fact that there is no definite leader yet for the Liberals. Therefore no specific person and platform to pit against Harper.

[Higgly]

That's part of it. The other part is that the voters have started to get a better look at Harper. He has been too obviously kissing up to George Bush, a man the majority of Canadians do not like. The softwood lumber deal was his chance to show Canada some balls. Instead we got fluffy bunny slippers. Numerous polls have shown that Canadians want neutrality on the Middle East. Harper is not neutral. Now he is starting to shake his finger at income trusts - an issue that got the Liberals in hot water. As for winning votes in Quebec, you can forget it. The Bloc has got it sewn up tight.

[Canadian Blue]

I wouldn't read too much into polls. The 93 election showed the PC's and Liberals in a dead heat as well and we all know how that turned out.

[jdobbin]

I wouldn't read too much into polls. The 93 election showed the PC's and Liberals in a dead heat as well and we all know how that turned out.

The recent election's polls predicted accurately that the Tories would win.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I wouldn't read too much into polls. The 93 election showed the PC's and Liberals in a dead heat as well and we all know how that turned out.

The recent election's polls predicted accurately that the Tories would win.

The 'dead heat' was five weeks before voting day. The last major published poll in 1993, the Gallup poll three days before voting day, called the PC, Reform and NDP percentage of the voted exactly. Only missed the Libs by two points and the BQ by three. What was your point?

[Argus]

I don't think that Rae's past will be much of an issue, the people I know don't seem to be upset by what happend and relaize that he was just trying to deal with the recession,

I was and am a little older than you, and I and others my age still clearly remember Rae, his hypocrisy, his huge deficits - despite big tax increases, his pro union legislation, his affirmative action legislation, and so much more.

And if I were running the Tory election machine I would portray this as an NDP takeover of the Liberal Party. I would tell people it will be an NDP federal government with affirmative action programs, huge deficits, huge tax increases, tons of money going to public sector unions, minorities, gays, arts groups, the environment, etc. I would energize the right that way, and by pointing out that an NDP government would start picking fights with the US, and thus damage our economy, and probably endanger our international relationships by trying to pull out of NATO and allign ourselves with the likes of Cuba and Venezuala.

[Argus]

That's part of it. The other part is that the voters have started to get a better look at Harper. He has been too obviously kissing up to George Bush

The same poll which you are gleefully quoting also asked people who would make the best prime minister, and Harper beat out all the Liberal contenders as well as Layton.

So much for your theory.

[Canadian Blue]

I believe that before the 93 elections polls showed the PC and Liberals in the mid 30's. After a few weeks on the election trail their fortunes changed. My point is that you can't buy too much into polls.

[jdobbin]

I believe that before the 93 elections polls showed the PC and Liberals in the mid 30's. After a few weeks on the election trail their fortunes changed. My point is that you can't buy too much into polls.

Things can obviously change. Polls are snapshots just like elections.

If Tories are confident they can win an election, they should call one right now.