Super Weekend

geoffrey · September 29, 2006

Just wondering, as a public service, could someone explain why this weekend is called Super Weekend by the Liberals? I understand they are electing local delegates to send to the convention. Does this mean we essentially know the result of the race already? Or can they change their support later on and vote for someone else?

If so, what's the point?

Apparently we'll have results as soon as tonight as the Liberals have a cool little Super Weekend support tracker on their website and some of the meetings are tonight (most appear to be tomorrow).

gc1765 · September 29, 2006

I think the delegates must vote for the candidate that they said they would support on the first ballot. After that, they can vote for whoever they like.

watching&waiting · September 29, 2006

From what I get from all of this is that by the time the weekend is over we should have a very narrowed field left of 3 possibly 4 still in the running. But I am going by what was said by some of the liberal party wonks I overheard having coffee, so call it maybe a insider view from and outsider etc .

August1991 · September 29, 2006

There are some 200,000 party members and about half will vote this weekend for delegates to the convention in Montreal in December.

I think the party members will have two ballots - one to choose the delegates and another to choose a leader. So, sometime next week we should know the relative strength of each candidate.

I'm sure Volpe and Kennedy will stay in regardless. So, there will be at least five candidates at the convention.

geoffrey · September 30, 2006

There are some 200,000 party members and about half will vote this weekend for delegates to the convention in Montreal in December.
I think the party members will have two ballots - one to choose the delegates and another to choose a leader. So, sometime next week we should know the relative strength of each candidate.

I'm sure Volpe and Kennedy will stay in regardless. So, there will be at least five candidates at the convention.

Why only half? Just turnout, or do only odd number memberships get to vote or something weird?

Going to the Liberal website and downloading the ticker, will show the follow results as of 1:15AM MST (many drinks tonight so forgive any minor errors, the order will be right):

Ignatieff 204 Delegates (28.9%)

Dion 122 Delegates (17.3%)

Rae 114 Delegates (16.1%)

Kennedy 92 Delegates (13%)

Brision 65 Delegates (9.2%)

Dryden 48 Delegates (6.8%)

Volpe 29 Delegates (4.1%)

Hall Findlay 16 Delegates (2.3%)

Undeclared 16 Delegates (2.3%)

Does that mean we'll like see Brison, Dryden, Volpe and Findlay drop out shortly? Does this mean Iggy likely will win, or just win the first ballot? The supports of the other camps obviously would then transfer support to another candidate as they drop out. I guess that leaves a few questions for everyone:

a-> Where do the semi-big name supporters go to after they quit... Brison, Volpe and maybe Kennedy? Iggy, or Rae (or maybe even Dion)?

B-> Why are there undeclared delegates? What's the use... it seems they have little impact in the big scheme, but why the hell would you elect an undeclared? That's kind of pointless.

August1991 · September 30, 2006

Why only half? Just turnout, or do only odd number memberships get to vote or something weird?

I think the party lists are inflated. And a member has to go physically to a place to vote.

Does that mean we'll like see Brison, Dryden, Volpe and Findlay drop out shortly?

Volpe and Findlay will not drop out on principle. I think Brison will pull a John Turner/John Crosbie, hanging on to the bitter end.

a-> Where do the semi-big name supporters go to after they quit... Brison, Volpe and maybe Kennedy? Iggy, or Rae (or maybe even Dion)?

That, as they say, is the $64 question.

IMV, the fact that Dion is Number Two ahead of Rae almost guarantees that Dion will become leader. Some predictions had put Dion in 4th or 5th spot on the first ballot.

(many drinks tonight so forgive any minor errors, the order will be right)

Cheers.

Biblio Bibuli · September 30, 2006

Does this mean Iggy likely will win?

If Iggy doesn't win (over 33% of the vote is my prediction), I'll eat a wide-brimmed Mountie Stetson for breakfast.

jdobbin · September 30, 2006

If Iggy doesn't win (over 33% of the vote is my prediction), I'll eat a wide-brimmed Mountie Stetson for breakfast.

With the Mountie in it?

gc1765 · September 30, 2006

Iggy has a bigger lead than I expected, I thought it would have been closer between the top three. So the big question is, is this lead enough to overcome the "anyone but iggy" effect?

I also thought rae would have been ahead of dion, so which one of those two will be eliminated first?

Rue · September 30, 2006

There are some 200,000 party members and about half will vote this weekend for delegates to the convention in Montreal in December.

I think the party members will have two ballots - one to choose the delegates and another to choose a leader. So, sometime next week we should know the relative strength of each candidate.

I'm sure Volpe and Kennedy will stay in regardless. So, there will be at least five candidates at the convention.

Why only half? Just turnout, or do only odd number memberships get to vote or something weird?

Going to the Liberal website and downloading the ticker, will show the follow results as of 1:15AM MST (many drinks tonight so forgive any minor errors, the order will be right):

Ignatieff 204 Delegates (28.9%)

Dion 122 Delegates (17.3%)

Rae 114 Delegates (16.1%)

Kennedy 92 Delegates (13%)

Brision 65 Delegates (9.2%)

Dryden 48 Delegates (6.8%)

Volpe 29 Delegates (4.1%)

Hall Findlay 16 Delegates (2.3%)

Undeclared 16 Delegates (2.3%)

Does that mean we'll like see Brison, Dryden, Volpe and Findlay drop out shortly? Does this mean Iggy likely will win, or just win the first ballot? The supports of the other camps obviously would then transfer support to another candidate as they drop out. I guess that leaves a few questions for everyone:

a-> Where do the semi-big name supporters go to after they quit... Brison, Volpe and maybe Kennedy? Iggy, or Rae (or maybe even Dion)?

B-> Why are there undeclared delegates? What's the use... it seems they have little impact in the big scheme, but why the hell would you elect an undeclared? That's kind of pointless.

I think Kennedy is rumoured to be as high as 102 and Rae higher as well. In any event Clearly Volpe will not drop out and Dryden said he would not. So I can't see Brison or Hall Findlay packing it in. Obviously this is really a race between Igg and Rae with Dion thinking he can squeeze through the middle and Kenendy thinking the same. It really is a 2 way race Igg v.s. Rae with Dion sort of there. Kennedy clearly is running to make himself known for the next time around. I personally think Kennedy is not qualified enough to ever be a Prime Minister. Running a food bank just does not cut it in this day and age where you need to have

a lot more economic knowledge and certainly some sort of experiene running a large for profit corporation.

Dion is just not the answer. His policies and reputation are just too closely attached to Chretiens since Chretiens brought him in. In reality he was not the lap puppy some think he is, but he's just too closely associated to Chretiens to ever be taken seriously.

So who does that leave. Obviously Rae and Igg and at this point anyone not on the Igg band-wagon is rushing to the Rae band wagon in an effort to cover their pathetic greedy butts.

If they elect Rae, they destroy the party and its a laugh and landslide for Harper who will just butcher this bumbling NDP loser. Rae's record in Ontario as an NDP laughing stock Premier can not be defended against and for the Liberals to take his candidacy seriously shows you just how pathetic the Liberals are.

Igg can go one on one with Harper on foreign policy debates, but Harper I would predicy will be a better debater and expose him as an inexperienced dreamer academic with no understanding of how government works let alone the economy. I just don't think Canadians are in the mood for some academic these days.

I think none of the candidates was the way to go. I would have gone with Frank McKenna but McKenna clearly did not want it thinking he could not beat Igg.

The Liberals need a longer period in opposition to flush out their former Chretienites and Martinites and allow some grass roots reform and some people outside the party to have time to mature and think whether they want to get involved with it.

If I am the Tories, I would think Igg would be the one I would least want elected but I am sure Harper isn't losing any sleep over it. I think a Harper v.s. Rae election would be an embarassement. There will be idiot Jack Layton claiming Rae is a socialist turn-coat and all Harper will have to do is laugh at the two twits and now and then say things like "economy" or "Afghanistan".

geoffrey · September 30, 2006

Igg can go one on one with Harper on foreign policy debates, but Harper I would predicy will be a better debater and expose him as an inexperienced dreamer academic with no understanding of how government works let alone the economy. I just don't think Canadians are in the mood for some academic these days.

You overestimate Harper. He's almost as much of an academic as Iggy, spent his whole life working in politics and think tanks (and a few years in industry, I'll give him that). Iggy is a strong debater, I think that'd be alot closer than you portray.

Being said, I think Iggy is among the best news for the CPC, it throws any Afghanistan debate out the window for the Liberals.

jdobbin · September 30, 2006

Being said, I think Iggy is among the best news for the CPC, it throws any Afghanistan debate out the window for the Liberals.

Afghanistan can be an issue regardless if the Liberals mention it.

The terms of the debate could change. Many Democrats still support the war in Iraq. What they say is that Bush has carried it out poorly.

Much too early to tell how this play out with a new Liberal leader but suffice to say, Canadians were skeptical of both Liberals and Conservatives on Afghanistan.

Biblio Bibuli · September 30, 2006

If they elect Rae, they destroy the party and its a laugh and landslide for Harper who will just butcher this bumbling NDP loser.

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/is...47-fc1c771fd7a8

In his above article Bob complains that the Conservatives "eliminated a program supporting tobacco cessation for Aboriginal citizens". What a bumbling NDP loser. I like him still because I know who he will side with in the end.

Igg can go one on one with Harper on foreign policy debates, but Harper I would predict will be a better debater and expose him as an inexperienced dreamer academic with no understanding of how government works let alone the economy. I just don't think Canadians are in the mood for some academic these days.

Now I like Harper ... but the man is NOT a good debater, unless you're partial to stiff robotic types. Iggy would wipe the floor with him in a debate.

As to what Canadians are "in the mood for"... the sad part is that they will be "in the mood for" whatever the press tells them to be in the mood for.

GO IGGY GO!

Shakeyhands · September 30, 2006

Just got back from voting myself.

You are correct, there are two 'ballots'

One is for Leader and the other for your choice of delegates to send, you can choose to vote to send up to 14 delegates to the leadership convention.

You can see how the potential leaders are fairing here:

http://www.liberal.ca/news_e.aspx?id=11936

geoffrey · September 30, 2006

Iggy's support is increasing throughout the day according to the ticker.

He's at 30.8% now and Rae has replaced Dion in 2nd place with 18.1% to Dion's 18%. Kennedy is doing better than I expected at 13.2%

Biblio Bibuli · September 30, 2006

If Iggy doesn't win (over 33% of the vote is my prediction), I'll eat a wide-brimmed Mountie Stetson for breakfast.

Iggy's support is increasing throughout the day according to the ticker.

He's at 30.8% now and Rae has replaced Dion in 2nd place with 18.1% to Dion's 18%. Kennedy is doing better than I expected at 13.2%

Just a couple of percentage points more and we're in the money.

jdobbin · October 1, 2006

I'd be suprised if Hall Findlay continues after this weekend. Having said that, I think she has earned a spot as a candidate for the Liberals and she brings a fresh perspective.

Volpe is trailing around the bottom. He might want to stay in to embarrass the Liberals but he might just embarrass himself more. How much money has he got left?

Likewise Brison probbaly doesn't have the cash to continue. Dryden...ditto.

That will leave four in the running and still leave room for some drama...possibly...at the convention.

Ricki Bobbi · October 1, 2006

Iggy 31.0%, Rae 19.9% and Dion 19.5% are starting to separate from the pack. Although Kennedy 12.3% is impressively still holding onto double digits.

Seems like a very interesting dynamic at work.

Since *every* Liberal leadership convention has ended up with the first ballot leader winning the prize let's look at old PC conventions for how likely an ABIggy campaign is to be successful.

The 1976 and 1983 Conservative conventions are the two examples where the first ballot leader didn't win.

In 1976 Claude Wagner lead Mulroney 22.5% to 15% with Clark having 11.7% of the vote on the first ballot. After the first ballot all the red tories lent their support to Clark. Forced to drop off the final ballot Mulroney released his supporters. The majority went to Clark ... enough to put him over the top. Not really an ABWagner movement.

1983 was truly an anybody but Clark movement. Mulroney's *people* met with from all the other candidates representatives but one (presumably Crosbie's) to talk about an ABClark movement. Every candidate but Clark and Crosbie eventually supported Mulroney. Clark lead the first ballot 36% to 29% over Mulroney.

Given that there would have to be a gang up similar to 1983 I suspect Iggy will win.

At this point I think the most important battle is who finishes second, Dion or Rae. The surprise of the night will definitely be how well Kennedy is doing ... if his numbers hold.

ETA Shows how little I know. The first story on the Globe Web site is making a big deal of how poorly Kennedy is doing in Quebec...

geoffrey · October 1, 2006

There are some candidates that are doing better in places then expected, at least from me:

Kennedy in Alberta, 32.5%... just dominating in Alberta, what's up with that? He doesn't really have anything to say to Albertans, Dion even had an Alberta website. What the heck?

New Brunswick is overwelmingly Iggy... why?

Ontario isn't supporting Rae, he's in third place. He will not be the next leader.

Quebec obviously knows what politics is about, they pretty much only support Iggy, Rae or Dion... Iggy with a 10% lead.

jdobbin · October 1, 2006

There are some candidates that are doing better in places then expected, at least from me:
Kennedy in Alberta, 32.5%... just dominating in Alberta, what's up with that? He doesn't really have anything to say to Albertans, Dion even had an Alberta website. What the heck?

New Brunswick is overwelmingly Iggy... why?

Ontario isn't supporting Rae, he's in third place. He will not be the next leader.

Quebec obviously knows what politics is about, they pretty much only support Iggy, Rae or Dion... Iggy with a 10% lead.

Kennedy has a lot of friends from his Edmonton days. He has lots of family in Manitoba too.

The new leader in New Brunswick is friendly with Ignatieff.

Quebec only really knows the candidates who speak French as well as English.

August1991 · October 1, 2006

Kennedy in Alberta, 32.5%... just dominating in Alberta, what's up with that? He doesn't really have anything to say to Albertans, Dion even had an Alberta website. What the heck?

Kennedy lived and worked in Alberta.

In 1976 Claude Wagner lead Mulroney 22.5% to 15% with Clark having 11.7% of the vote on the first ballot. After the first ballot all the red tories lent their support to Clark. Forced to drop off the final ballot Mulroney released his supporters. The majority went to Clark ... enough to put him over the top.

That's the comparison I would make.

Wagner was an outsider and Mulroney was too brash (delegates folded his signs around to say "Money"). The convention chose Clark because he was considered safe.

I think the same will happen in Montreal. Rae and Ignatieff are too risky for the Liberals. They'll go with third place Dion.

Two points: Most of those who wanted Ignatieff would have chosen him. Dion has done remarkably well.

I'd be suprised if Hall Findlay continues after this weekend. Having said that, I think she has earned a spot as a candidate for the Liberals and she brings a fresh perspective.
Volpe is trailing around the bottom. He might want to stay in to embarrass the Liberals but he might just embarrass himself more. How much money has he got left?

Likewise Brison probbaly doesn't have the cash to continue. Dryden...ditto.

Don't forget the PR advantage of being at the convention and speaking on TV. For Brison and Hall Findley, that matters. It raises their status, makes them players. Volpe will stay in because he's stubborn. Kennedy still thinks he can win.

The only one likely to drop out is Dryden.

Ricki Bobbi · October 1, 2006

There are some candidates that are doing better in places then expected, at least from me:
Kennedy in Alberta, 32.5%... just dominating in Alberta, what's up with that? He doesn't really have anything to say to Albertans, Dion even had an Alberta website. What the heck?

New Brunswick is overwelmingly Iggy... why?

Ontario isn't supporting Rae, he's in third place. He will not be the next leader.

Quebec obviously knows what politics is about, they pretty much only support Iggy, Rae or Dion... Iggy with a 10% lead.

geoffrey I'm sure the local results are all about organization.

Kennedy has roots in Alberta. Spent some time in Alberta and founded the Edmonton Food Bank. Woiuldn't matter in a general election but does to the few Alberta Liberals out here in Wild Rose Country...

geoffrey · October 1, 2006

geoffrey I'm sure the local results are all about organization.
Kennedy has roots in Alberta. Spent some time in Alberta and founded the Edmonton Food Bank. Woiuldn't matter in a general election but does to the few Alberta Liberals out here in Wild Rose Country...

Ya, I guess all the Liberals are in Edmonton anyways...