Canadian Political Polls

[madmax]

And you have completely ignored the voting history of Canadians to arrive at this view?

No Rush to vote with these numbers from CTV, article by Robert Fife.

Liberals: 35 per cent (-2)

Conservatives: 31 per cent (unchanged)

NDP: 15 per cent (+1)

Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent (unchanged)

Green Party: 8 per cent (+1)

But here lies the problems mentioned earlier.

Here are the Quebec numbers (percentage-point change from Dec. 3 in brackets):

Liberals: 25 per cent (-3)

Conservatives: 15 per cent (-1)

NDP: 9 per cent (+3)

Bloc Quebecois: 46 per cent (+2)

Green Party: 5 per cent (-1)

However, in July, the Conservatives had 30 per cent support in Quebec and a 14-point lead over the Liberals, Woolstencroft said.

Polling in Quebec tends to underestimate Liberal support, he added

And I don't want to see an election till 2008 at the earliest. I will be sick if we have one this year, along with a Provincial Election in Ontario, just following on the heels of the Federal and Municipal in 2006.

People in this province groan at any talk of elections. The only people whom seem to mention it are political hacks and the media.

[mikedavid00]

The best quote from the story.

"This can't be good news for (Liberal Leader) Stephane Dion," Fife said. "Despite the enormous positive coverage out of the Liberal leadership convention, he hasn't been able to capitalize on that and put the party in majority territory."

So the timing for the election looks to be in Harper's hands for the moment...

I heard on the radio it's not a postive for any current leader when they are lagging in the polls this far behind..

Also looks like Wajid Khan didn't have an effect on this.

[mikedavid00]

I have more faith in Canadians I guess, or a less cyncical view of people's motivators.

And you have completely ignored the voting history of Canadians to arrive at this view?

Exactly.

Look at how Canadians vote and you'll see these polls are just entertianment..

I'm sure they don't conduct their surveys in representations to ridings.

Remember that post I made showing the very close races in ridings throught the country? Why don't they poll those area's and then we can get a clearer picture of how many more seats Harper will pick up.

Litterally all of Canada outside the ethnic ridings and parts of Quebec have to jump on board.. it will be tough and I don't know if that's going to happen.

He's going to have to work on immigration and getting relatives over faster.. unveiling plans to bring people over in 6 months and a plan for recognition of credetians. Both plans won't work of course, but we need to do something to make sure that Harper gets a majority so he can fix the country.

I still have faith him and believe he's just putting on a show right now.

[hiti]

but we need to do something to make sure that Harper gets a majority so he can fix the country.

I still have faith him and believe he's just putting on a show right now.

Just what do you want Steve to fix? Give us a list.

[geoffrey]

Just what do you want Steve to fix? Give us a list.

- Modernize the tax system.

- Open the health care system up to choice.

- Cut most Federal transfers (and respective taxes) and allow provinces to raise their own revenues.

[hiti]

quote name='hiti' post='176111' date='Jan 18 2007, 12:03 AM'

Just what do you want Steve to fix? Give us a list.

- Modernize the tax system.

To what? Steve has complicated filing taxes with his piece meal garble of deductions for this program and that program and another program except that most people forget to keep receipts so they miss out anyway. In the meantime, the personal exemption has been lowered and the income tax rate increased. I don't want Steve to mess with the tax system anymore. He screwed up enough of it already.

- Open the health care system up to choice.

You have a choice now. Or do you want the US HMO to set up here?

- Cut most Federal transfers (and respective taxes) and allow provinces to raise their own revenues.

Like Steve's doing now? Giving Quebec an additional $1.5 billion.

You want different standards in health care, education, all programs under the Canada Social Transfer?

You want each province to be on their own and do what they want? This would be stupid. We are ONE country, not 10 countries. Harper is an idiot for trying to break up the country.

And the provinces do raise their own revenues. In fact, as a country ALL provinces are better off and all Canadians are better off with federal standards and pooling taxes for the benefit of all.

[mikedavid00]

Just what do you want Steve to fix? Give us a list.

I need Steve to reduce greenhouse gasses by taxing Canadians.

I need Steve to tax Alberta.

I need Steve to send billions of our tax dollars to China and Russia.

I need Steve to make sure that we let elderly relatives back home into Canada within 3 months; especially if they need medical care.

I need Steve to bring back the 1% GST.

I need Steve to increase funding to the CBC.

[Ricki Bobbi]

MD00

You forgot the following.

Oh, by the way, I was being sarcastic.

- Homer J. Simpson

[jdobbin]

Canadian Press releases Decima poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/070118/...nal/tories_poll

The national numbers break down this way: Liberal support, 33 per cent; Conservatives 32; NDP 13, and the Green Party nine per cent.

In Alberta, Decima's three-week rolling average puts Tory support at 63 per cent and the Liberals at 14 - almost 50 percentage points back.

[Catchme]

Canadian Press releases Decima poll.

The national numbers break down this way: Liberal support, 33 per cent; Conservatives 32; NDP 13, and the Green Party nine per cent.

In Alberta, Decima's three-week rolling average puts Tory support at 63 per cent and the Liberals at 14 - almost 50 percentage points back.

Among urban voters last January, the Conservatives enjoyed a six-point advantage. Now Decima has the Liberals six percentage points ahead of the Tories in urban areas.

Older voters, those 50 and up, favoured the Conservatives by 14 percentage points last year, but Decima's surveys now suggest the Tory lead over the Liberals has been cut to three points. That's within the poll's margin of error.

One year ago, Conservative support outside Alberta was nine percentage points higher than Liberal support. According to three-week rolling averages from the last three Decima surveys, Tory support outside Alberta sits at 28 per cent, compared to 35 per cent for the Liberals.

[Ricki Bobbi]

The Conservatives are at 63% in Alberta.

So much for certain people believing Albertans are going to turn on the Party.

[tml12]

The Conservatives are at 63% in Alberta.

So much for certain people believing Albertans are going to turn on the Party.

Albertans will not turn on the CPC while they are still a part of the Canadian Confederation and while the CPC is the only viable governing choice compared with the Liberals.

[jdobbin]

Albertans will not turn on the CPC while they are still a part of the Canadian Confederation and while the CPC is the only viable governing choice compared with the Liberals.

Unfortunately for the Tories they can't win more seats in Alberta.

And because they are so popular in that province, the Tories can sacrifice some of the support with a new fiscal arrangement that is more favourable for places like Quebec.

[Ricki Bobbi]

And because they are so popular in that province, the Tories can sacrifice some of the support with a new fiscal arrangement that is more favourable for places like Quebec.

Which is exactly what will happen...

[Catchme]

Albertans will not turn on the CPC while they are still a part of the Canadian Confederation and while the CPC is the only viable governing choice compared with the Liberals.

Unfortunately for the Tories they can't win more seats in Alberta.

And because they are so popular in that province, the Tories can sacrifice some of the support with a new fiscal arrangement that is more favourable for places like Quebec.

They have dropped in AB, and Harper can try to pay off PQ all he wants won't work, he is dropping there too.

[geoffrey]

And because they are so popular in that province, the Tories can sacrifice some of the support with a new fiscal arrangement that is more favourable for places like Quebec.

Which is exactly what will happen...

And Albertans should be furious about that. Being taken for granted is what we get from the Liberals, not the PM from Calgary-Southwest.

I'd vote for a Reform style alternative even if it meant the Liberals return to power with a divided right. The CPC in opposition helped to curb spending as they brought the stupid stuff to light. Now that they are spending billions on stupid endeavours, who's going to reign them in?

Albertans aren't going to turn on the CPC and vote Liberal. But they'd vote for an alternative right-wing party in a heartbeat if Harper gives the $1.5b to Quebec from our money. Take the poll after Harper institutes his own NEP style policy (increasing Alberta's equalisation contributions along with oil prices) and we'll see how the CPC stands in Alberta.

[Ricki Bobbi]

I'd vote for a Reform style alternative even if it meant the Liberals return to power with a divided right. The CPC in opposition helped to curb spending as they brought the stupid stuff to light. Now that they are spending billions on stupid endeavours, who's going to reign them in?

Albertans aren't going to turn on the CPC and vote Liberal. But they'd vote for an alternative right-wing party in a heartbeat if Harper gives the $1.5b to Quebec from our money. Take the poll after Harper institutes his own NEP style policy (increasing Alberta's equalisation contributions along with oil prices) and we'll see how the CPC stands in Alberta.

Of course you would vote for the alternative. But you wouldn't do anything to make that alternative come about.

I thought you said the Income Trust decision was going to make Albertans turn against him? Didn't happen, because Albertans aren't as self-centred as you think they are. They can see the big picture and recognize when the Prime Minister is acting in the best interest of the country as a whole.

Maybe an extra $1.5 billion of *our* money might make some people upset. What is the cost of the hardline? Tell Quebec to piss off? how quickly do we see a PQ win in the next provincial election and another referendum? How much would that hurt the economy?

You've got a strong background in finance. I don't judge it on fairness, but simply as an investment. A shrewd one at that.

Analyze the problem. Don't let your emotions carry you away. If only Quebeckers could look at the economic advantage of staying in Canada...

[geoffrey]

Paying Quebec's blackmail requests forever isn't sustainable. Harper should know better. If he was serious about the long-term success of Canada, he'd put his foot down and make Quebec realise they are a province like any other.

Why exactly is Quebec entitled to a massive increase in equalisation over all others?

[tml12]

Paying Quebec's blackmail requests forever isn't sustainable. Harper should know better. If he was serious about the long-term success of Canada, he'd put his foot down and make Quebec realise they are a province like any other.

Why exactly is Quebec entitled to a massive increase in equalisation over all others?

But that is the politics of Quebec. Harper wants to win a majority and he can't do it unless he gets more seats in Quebec to offset the Liberal fools on this island of Montreal who vote Liberal regardless of anything because they are just simply stupid.

I think a Harper majority would be sympathetic to the West while sweetening Quebec enough to keep them in check. That being said, while I am VERY sympathetic toward Western Canada, I think individuals out there need to recognize that Harper's seemingly pro-Quebec policies are necessary while Quebec has 75 seats in the House. That is also probably why he will suck up to Ontario also.

[jdobbin]

But that is the politics of Quebec. Harper wants to win a majority and he can't do it unless he gets more seats in Quebec to offset the Liberal fools on this island of Montreal who vote Liberal regardless of anything because they are just simply stupid.

Albertans think Toronto and Montreal are fools for voting Liberal and some in those cities think the same of Albertans who vote massively for Tories. Both have fears that either party will force their ideology on them.

[tml12]

But that is the politics of Quebec. Harper wants to win a majority and he can't do it unless he gets more seats in Quebec to offset the Liberal fools on this island of Montreal who vote Liberal regardless of anything because they are just simply stupid.

Albertans think Toronto and Montreal are fools for voting Liberal and some in those cities think the same of Albertans who vote massively for Tories. Both have fears that either party will force their ideology on them.

I have much more sympathy for Albertans voting for the Conservatives though. After all, minimal knowledge of Canadian history shows that the federal Liberals have raped Canadian federalism in the name of their tight Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal troika.

Canada, in return, has been blessed with several separation movements, an elected dictatorship, billions of dollars that we cannot account for, a terrible environmental record, a problematic health care system, and poor relations with our closest allies, the Americans, after their 12+ years in power.

Thus, voting Conservative is really all that makes sense at this point.

[jdobbin]

I have much more sympathy for Albertans voting for the Conservatives though. After all, minimal knowledge of Canadian history shows that the federal Liberals have raped Canadian federalism in the name of their tight Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal troika.

I think that many people in urban areas feel that Conservatives have a lot of anti-urban feelings. From your post, it would seem that is true.

[tml12]

I have much more sympathy for Albertans voting for the Conservatives though. After all, minimal knowledge of Canadian history shows that the federal Liberals have raped Canadian federalism in the name of their tight Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal troika.

I think that many people in urban areas feel that Conservatives have a lot of anti-urban feelings. From your post, it would seem that is true.

I think people in urban areas think the Conservatives have a lot of anti-urban feelings but I do not know why. I am a resident of an urban area and I have lived all my life in urban areas, yet I vote Conservative. I recognize Harper's core base is rural, but voting Conservative simply makes sense in terms of their superior manifesto.

In terms of people in Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal, they all brainlessly vote Liberal and I do not know why. The last Liberal record is embarassing and horrible. It is nothing to be proud of and I would just assume vote for any party but the Liberals.

[jdobbin]

In terms of people in Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal, they all brainlessly vote Liberal and I do not know why. The last Liberal record is embarassing and horrible. It is nothing to be proud of and I would just assume vote for any party but the Liberals.

It is your opinion that the Liberal record was embarrassing and horrible. It was also a record of elimination of the deficit and rising growth and employment. And while people may have wanted change, they didn't want to completely abandon the Liberals until they saw what the Tories were capable of.

The polls have shown that Canadians are still not convinced about a majority government for either party.

[tml12]

In terms of people in Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal, they all brainlessly vote Liberal and I do not know why. The last Liberal record is embarassing and horrible. It is nothing to be proud of and I would just assume vote for any party but the Liberals.

It is your opinion that the Liberal record was embarrassing and horrible. It was also a record of elimination of the deficit and rising growth and employment. And while people may have wanted change, they didn't want to completely abandon the Liberals until they saw what the Tories were capable of.

The polls have shown that Canadians are still not convinced about a majority government for either party.

Yes there was rising growth and elimination of the deficit under the Liberals, namely Paul Martin who was, I would argue, a Liberal in name only. The man had more in common with Regan than Trudeau.

Furthermore, instead of campaining on that accomplishment, Chretien argued Canadians should vote Liberal because the Liberals are responsible for Canada's "communitarian social values" as opposed to the Americans. However, his actions with Martin were very neo-liberal and even libertarian in many areas and resulted in the cutting of many of Canada's social programs and the CHST which devastated the health care system in this country.

Again, as a conservative I give them credit for these sensible conservative initiatives yet it is hypocrisy to suggest this is a party that is communitarian but rather a "flavour of the month" party that will support ANYTHING it thinks will get them elected. It is shocking to me that the Canadian electorate is so brainwashed by the Liberal Party.