Canadian Political Polls

jbg · October 30, 2007

See above. Last time this happened, an election was called immediately after.

Thanks jdobbin.

Let's see if one of the parties decides that Canadians would rather have tax cuts than an election, or if some Liberals get the "red flue" when this is voted on.

jdobbin · October 30, 2007

Let's see if one of the parties decides that Canadians would rather have tax cuts than an election, or if some Liberals get the "red flue" when this is voted on.

I feel quite certain that the Liberals will vote in favour of the tax cut. They will state their opposition to the GST cut and support for the rest of the tax cuts. They will say that on the balance, they support the financial statement and leave the negative voting to the NDP.

The danger for the Tories is if they don't include any income or business tax cuts.

Edited October 30, 2007 by jdobbin

jbg · October 30, 2007

I feel quite certain that the Liberals will vote in favour of the tax cut. They will state their opposition to the GST cut and support for the rest of the tax cuts. They will say that on the balance, they support the financial statement and leave the negative voting to the NDP.
The danger for the Tories is if they don't include any income or business tax cuts.

What a display of courage for Dion. I'm all admiration.

He has the courage of a mouse afraid to bell the cat.

old_bold&cold · October 30, 2007

Dion can not do a single thing to stop the CPC from making these tax cuts and as much as he says he is against the GST cut, it will get supportted because he and his party can not afford to be seen opposing much of anything right now. As the goevernment will call them out on it and then have an election.

After the buget update today, the CPC will have laid the ground work for its run to have a majority government by next summer. There is nothing the Liberal can do about this other then force it to come earlier, I guess. but either way the Liberal will not be ready for an election, and it will not be pretty for them once one is called.

Yes after that the Liberals will dump Dion like a hot potatoe, but there really is no great candidate in the wings. Manley was wise enough to sit out the last leadership race, because he knew it would have only brought too much political baggage to the front, and the public was not ready to forgive that kind of thing yet. I am not sure if he feels different now, but if he did run for leader he would get the job, but I am not sure he can deliver the government to the party. He would be good for the liberals, as a leader who would take command, but he has too many Chretien ties, that much of the Liberal party still can not accept. It would be interesting though :huh:

jdobbin · October 30, 2007

What a display of courage for Dion. I'm all admiration.
He has the courage of a mouse afraid to bell the cat.

And you'd be calling him stupid if he voted non-confidence.

Let Harper call an election. Let's see how brave he is. The law doesn't prevent him from calling non-confidence even without a vote. Fixed election dates really don't mean anything in Canada if you are prepared to take the consequences at the polls.

jdobbin · October 30, 2007

Dion can not do a single thing to stop the CPC from making these tax cuts and as much as he says he is against the GST cut, it will get supportted because he and his party can not afford to be seen opposing much of anything right now. As the goevernment will call them out on it and then have an election.

And still every single poll keeps showing the Tories unable to hold the 40% they need to win a majority.

We'll see if they get the bump in the polls from the mini-budget and if they are compelled to just call an election on their own without a vote in the House.

fellowtraveller · October 30, 2007

And you'd be calling him stupid if he voted non-confidence.

No, I'd be calling him a man who stood by principle, instead of pretending to stand on principle..

Really, the longer Dion waits the loner he will have to eat Tory crap daily. Death by a hundred humiliations will not serve the Liberals at the polls.

He'd be better to cut his losses, take his lumps and step down gracefully after losing an election.

jdobbin · October 30, 2007

No, I'd be calling him a man who stood by principle, instead of pretending to stand on principle..
Really, the longer Dion waits the loner he will have to eat Tory crap daily. Death by a hundred humiliations will not serve the Liberals at the polls.

He'd be better to cut his losses, take his lumps and step down gracefully after losing an election.

I agree that it can probably only go on for so long.

We'll see if there is an issue that an election can be fought on. At this point, I don't see the Liberals ready. If there is one or two polls that show the Tories over 40%, I expect Harper will call the election himself and damn the torpedoes in regards to fixed election dates.

jbg · October 31, 2007

And you'd be calling him stupid if he voted non-confidence.
Let Harper call an election. Let's see how brave he is. The law doesn't prevent him from calling non-confidence even without a vote. Fixed election dates really don't mean anything in Canada if you are prepared to take the consequences at the polls.

Any interim leader is going to have to regularly eat a full diet of crap sandwiches from Harper, supporting him on all of the numerous confidence votes, until the Liberal Party slects a leader. This applies as well to any contenders for the leadership that are presently MPs.

No, I'd be calling him a man who stood by principle, instead of pretending to stand on principle..
Really, the longer Dion waits the loner he will have to eat Tory crap daily. Death by a hundred humiliations will not serve the Liberals at the polls.

He'd be better to cut his losses, take his lumps and step down gracefully after losing an election.

I agree that it can probably only go on for so long.
We'll see if there is an issue that an election can be fought on. At this point, I don't see the Liberals ready. If there is one or two polls that show the Tories over 40%, I expect Harper will call the election himself and damn the torpedoes in regards to fixed election dates.

Not when Harper ran the prior election on a platform, in part, of fixed dates. The Liberals are going to have to cause this election.

If the Liberals don't do it now, they're going to have a lot of very tricky explaining to do regarding their now opposing measures they voted for out of a fear of facing the voters.

jdobbin · October 31, 2007

Not when Harper ran the prior election on a platform, in part, of fixed dates. The Liberals are going to have to cause this election.
If the Liberals don't do it now, they're going to have a lot of very tricky explaining to do regarding their now opposing measures they voted for out of a fear of facing the voters.

Please, they will be voting to restore a tax cut they were the ones who put in place in the first place.

As for the GST cut, they can say they will put it back to 7% and lower corporate tax 50% and income taxes to 20% if they are elected.

I think more consumers would appreciate an income tax cut. Even the Consumers Association says they don't see a huge push from people on GST cuts compared to income tax cuts.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/071030/...mini_budget_gst

Bruce Cran of the Consumers Association of Canada describes how GST savings for most people "evaporated into the ether.
"We don't believe there's much in it for consumers at all - especially at the lowest levels. It just never reaches us.

"The Conservative politicians want it. I haven't heard the consumers saying 'Come give us a break on the GST."'

jdobbin · October 31, 2007

Latest poll from Decima.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...030?hub=QPeriod

Jim Flaherty's taxpayer-friendly mini-budget comes as Canadians are feeling happier with the economy than ever before -- but less likely to vote Conservative than they were last year.
A new Harris/Decima survey suggests the Tories have gotten no political bounce yet from the strength of the Canadian economy since they took office in 2006.

The finance minister was taking some credit for that economic robustness Tuesday.

"Good economic management by this government has made us all strong today,'' Flaherty declared.

"Like the North Star, we are a bright light for others to follow.''

But new public-opinion data suggests voters are still resistant to supporting his government.

Harris/Decima placed the Tories at 33 per cent in overall support -- three points lower than in the last election, down slightly from earlier this month, but still four points ahead of the Liberals.

Those stagnant numbers fly in the face of a separate Harris/Decima survey that suggests the state of satisfaction with the economy has reached historic levels.

The North Star comment is the new talking point for the government.

Edited October 31, 2007 by jdobbin

Michael Bluth · October 31, 2007

Not when Harper ran the prior election on a platform, in part, of fixed dates. The Liberals are going to have to cause this election.
If the Liberals don't do it now, they're going to have a lot of very tricky explaining to do regarding their now opposing measures they voted for out of a fear of facing the voters.

The Conservatives will not call an election before the fixed election date.

The electorate has started to tune out the Liberals. How could things change for the better for them? Aside from dumping Dion and getting a new leader.

capricorn · October 31, 2007

The Conservatives will not call an election before the fixed election date.
The electorate has started to tune out the Liberals. How could things change for the better for them? Aside from dumping Dion and getting a new leader.

If the Conservatives are allowed to govern until the fixed election date that will be a feather in their cap. They could then say "we did such a good job the opposition could not unseat us".

Other than by losing an election and turfing Dion afterward, the only other possibility is Dion stepping down voluntarily yet that is unlikely. He is a Liberal and has a large ego. He firmly believes the Liberals are the natural governing party and said last December "We must get back to power as quickly as possible". He does not want the distinction of being the first Liberal leader not to make it to the PM's chair. Poor Steffie.

Michael Bluth · October 31, 2007

Other than by losing an election and turfing Dion afterward, the only other possibility is Dion stepping down voluntarily yet that is unlikely. He is a Liberal and has a large ego. He firmly believes the Liberals are the natural governing party and said last December "We must get back to power as quickly as possible". He does not want the distinction of being the first Liberal leader not to make it to the PM's chair. Poor Steffie.

Yup. It's going to be very difficult for Steph to avoid that ignonimity.

Not becoming PM hopeful starts a new tradition for Liberal leaders. :lol:

jdobbin · October 31, 2007

Latest CROP poll for Quebec.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/071031/..._quebec_fed_col

The CROP survey for the daily newspaper La Presse put the Conservatives at 31 percent, up 4 percentage points from a mid-September poll, in the mainly French-speaking province of 7.5 million.
That put the Conservatives level with the Bloc Quebecois, a separatist party in Canada's parliament that fields candidates only in Quebec. The Bloc did not gain or lose points from September.

The federal Liberals were at 17 percent, down 2 percentage points.

The survey showed the Conservatives with 32 percent support among Francophone voters in Quebec, compared with 38 percent for the Bloc.

Michael Bluth · October 31, 2007

Latest CROP poll for Quebec.
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/071031/..._quebec_fed_col

31 percent support for the Conservatives in Quebec is great, great news.

They can easily look to pick up 15 to 20 seats there.

Definitely within sniffing distance of a majority if they aren't already there.

jbg · November 1, 2007

Latest CROP poll for Quebec.
The CROP survey for the daily newspaper La Presse put the Conservatives at 31 percent, up 4 percentage points from a mid-September poll, in the mainly French-speaking province of 7.5 million.

****

The survey showed the Conservatives with 32 percent support among Francophone voters in Quebec, compared with 38 percent for the Bloc.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/071031/..._quebec_fed_col

This is big news, for the CPC.

jdobbin · November 2, 2007

First poll to measure the response to the Tory tax cut.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.ht...31b&k=91019

A big slice of the Canadian population - 41 per cent - says the federal Conservative government's tax-cutting mini-budget deserves "two thumbs up," according to a new national poll that also reveals that the generally positive response has done nothing to boost the popularity of Stephen Harper's Tories.
The poll, conducted exclusively by Ipsos Reid for CanWest News Service and Global National, says only about one in 12 Canadians, or eight per cent, said the economic update delivered by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on Tuesday was bad, and that they would "symbolically give it two thumbs down."

A further 43 per cent said they were unmoved by the mini-budget that, among other things, included a one-point cut in the GST.

Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Reid, said the results suggest the opposition parties are barking up the wrong tree with their criticism of Flaherty's tax cuts, especially the GST.

"Even people who should be within the constituencies of some of these other parties, and buying on to the message that the GST is not the right kind of tax cut, they are not buying it," Bricker said in an interview.

The bottom line is that more than eight of 10 Canadians are either embracing the economic package, which also includes personal and corporate tax cuts, as a "good" thing, or they are "shrugging it off" as neither a good nor a bad thing, Bricker said.

The relative popularity of the package shows Liberal Leader Stephane Dion was smart, despite the party's vehement opposition to the GST, to order his MPs to abstain during Wednesday's vote to avoid defeating the minority government and triggering a federal election, Bricker said.

And the response to the political parties in general.

The survey, conducted Tuesday through Thursday, said the Tories have the support of 39 per cent of respondents, the same percentage as it got the previous week. The Liberals inched up one point to 28 per cent, the NDP dropped four points to 13 per cent, and the Green party slipped one point to seven per cent.
In Quebec, the scene is volatile. The Bloc Quebecois moved to 50 per cent, up 16 points from the previous survey. The Conservative remained in second spot at 22 per cent, down eight points from last week. The Liberals crept up one point to 17 per cent, while the NDP fell six points to seven per cent.

August1991 · November 3, 2007

The national results, based on telephone interviews with 1,000 adults, are considered accurate within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is greater for the regions, and is 6.6 percentage points in Quebec.

This is very strange - the Bloc goes from 34% to 50%. Even if we assume that the true percentage is 42% (which I find hard to believe), then both polls are outside the margin of error of ±6.6%. (These are small sample sizes of around 200-300.)

The Bloc is certainly not at 50% or even 40%. And it is the Conservatives who are capturing a large chunk of the Bloc vote. As they say in American politics, the Tories have the Big Mo. Given the geographic distribution of their support, the division of the opposition and popular total around 40%, they are almost guaranteed of a majority.

To be on the safe side, Harper has to do something to attract a few more women voters in English Canada in particular.

jdobbin · November 3, 2007

This is very strange - the Bloc goes from 34% to 50%. Even if we assume that the true percentage is 42% (which I find hard to believe), then both polls are outside the margin of error of ±6.6%. (These are small sample sizes of around 200-300.)
The Bloc is certainly not at 50% or even 40%. And it is the Conservatives who are capturing a large chunk of the Bloc vote. As they say in American politics, the Tories have the Big Mo. Given the geographic distribution of their support, the division of the opposition and popular total around 40%, they are almost guaranteed of a majority.

To be on the safe side, Harper has to do something to attract a few more women voters in English Canada in particular.

It does seem a big change and should be taken with a grain of salt given the sample.

Harper is going to have to revisit the issue of daycare if he is going to appeal to women. That, and a number of other issues not related to economy or justice are going to be important.

The National Post had an interesting view on these latest polls.

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/st...9ad4174&k=0

A deeper explanation of the disconnect between stalled Conservative support and solid fundamentals may be that, in an era of powerful central bankers, governments no longer get credit for a strong economy. This shift in the electorate has been noted by such strategists as former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris, who talks of a move away from "bread-and-butter issues to quality-of-life concerns." This debate was particularly topical in the United States after the 2004 election, when exit polls suggested "moral values" on subjects such as abortion, gay marriage and stem-cell research were the issues that mattered most to voters, ahead of Iraq and the economy.
This is not to suggest that the same issues will be key in any forthcoming Canadian election, but perhaps some of the same forces are at play. Remember, the Liberals were kicked from office in 2006 over issues of integrity at a time when the economy was going like a freight train.

Certainly, the Liberals have taken heart and suggest the election will come down to contrasting values, not tax cuts. Mr. Dion seemed to have recovered some of his mojo when he came out to reply to the mini-budget, pointing out that he would be the one who will determine when an election is called, not Mr. Harper.

August1991 · November 3, 2007

A CROP-La Presse poll of 31 October gave this:

Sur la scène fédérale, le Parti conservateur a rejoint le Bloc québécois dans les intentions de vote des Québécois.
Après la répartition des indécis, bloquistes et conservateurs récoltent 31 pour cent des appuis. Les libéraux de Stéphane Dion sont à 17 pour cent alors que le NPD est à 14 pour cent.

La maison CROP a mené son enquête du 18 au 28 octobre auprès de 1001 répondants. Elle est précise à trois points de pourcentage près.

La Presse

This is closer to the truth and it mirrors the situation at the provincial level where the ADQ, PQ and PLQ are about equal at 30% each. The Tory vote is highly correlated with the ADQ vote. Note that because the Ipsos-Reid poll over-estimated the Bloc vote, it understates the Tory vote. Hence, 39% is too low.

----

As to the National Post argument that the economy doesn't matter, I think it still does and I think voters still give credit to the politicians in place when things go well. OTOH, Harper has strong negatives in urban Canada and among women. In both voter pools, he runs up against strong dislikes. I know women in English Canada who simply can't stand him.

I don't know if this is new but the concept of "negatives" is now a current in democratic politics. It's a problem for Harper.

Canuck E Stan · November 3, 2007

A CROP-La Presse poll of 31 October gave this:La Presse
This is closer to the truth and it mirrors the situation at the provincial level where the ADQ, PQ and PLQ are about equal at 30% each. The Tory vote is highly correlated with the ADQ vote. Note that because the Ipsos-Reid poll over-estimated the Bloc vote, it understates the Tory vote. Hence, 39% is too low.

----

As to the National Post argument that the economy doesn't matter, I think it still does and I think voters still give credit to the politicians in place when things go well. OTOH, Harper has strong negatives in urban Canada and among women. In both voter pools, he runs up against strong dislikes. I know women in English Canada who simply can't stand him.

I don't know if this is new but the concept of "negatives" is now a current in democratic politics. It's a problem for Harper.

I agree with you on the the "economy does matter" and as it gets better with the loonie surging and prices of goods dropping, the credit will be given to the politicians,especially if the Spring budget gives the votes some more tax breaks.

At the same time, the Tories new ads showing Dion wanting to raise the GST,I believe will have an effect on Dion and push his effectiveness as a leader further into the sewer.

jdobbin · November 3, 2007

A CROP-La Presse poll of 31 October gave this:La Presse
This is closer to the truth and it mirrors the situation at the provincial level where the ADQ, PQ and PLQ are about equal at 30% each. The Tory vote is highly correlated with the ADQ vote. Note that because the Ipsos-Reid poll over-estimated the Bloc vote, it understates the Tory vote. Hence, 39% is too low.

----

As to the National Post argument that the economy doesn't matter, I think it still does and I think voters still give credit to the politicians in place when things go well. OTOH, Harper has strong negatives in urban Canada and among women. In both voter pools, he runs up against strong dislikes. I know women in English Canada who simply can't stand him.

I don't know if this is new but the concept of "negatives" is now a current in democratic politics. It's a problem for Harper.

I posted the CROP poll earlier. It is a far large sample most certainly and tell us something about Quebec.

However, I am not sure that it tells us the full story of national support. In other words, I don't think all the national pollsters are out of whack to conclude the Tories are still below 40% nationally.

jdobbin · November 3, 2007

I agree with you on the the "economy does matter" and as it gets better with the loonie surging and prices of goods dropping, the credit will be given to the politicians,especially if the Spring budget gives the votes some more tax breaks.
At the same time, the Tories new ads showing Dion wanting to raise the GST,I believe will have an effect on Dion and push his effectiveness as a leader further into the sewer.

Flaherty says there will be no big tax cuts in the next budget. You have heard differently?

And since two budgets and one economic statement still have the Tories in minority status, they will probably have to show some other policies that appeal to the electorate. Women are still reluctant to support Harper. What policies on the social front do the Tories offer that really make a difference there?

Michael Bluth · November 3, 2007

The Bloc is certainly not at 50% or even 40%. And it is the Conservatives who are capturing a large chunk of the Bloc vote. As they say in American politics, the Tories have the Big Mo. Given the geographic distribution of their support, the division of the opposition and popular total around 40%, they are almost guaranteed of a majority.
To be on the safe side, Harper has to do something to attract a few more women voters in English Canada in particular.

Harper is definitely in majority territory.

The Liberals have lost their spot as the federalist option in Quebec. They are polling even with the Conservatives in Ontario.

Stephane Dion, the only Liberal leader in 100 years to not become Prime Minister. Gotta love the sound of that! :lol: