Canadian Political Polls

[Michael Bluth]

I would guess IMO that most people undestand the difference bewteen a major and minor shuffle.

Considering every Tory MP was a cabinet rookie at the begining of this Government, there must be a few willing victims for Defence.

I didn't see the differentiation between major and minor cabinet shuffle in that Decima article.

[Michael Bluth]

Tories lead Grits, NDP slides. Link

CPC 36%

LPC 33%

NDP 13%

BQ 10%

Green 8%

Interesting poll. The Conservatives gained ground in every region of the country but the Maritimes. Even there they only dropped four points. Given Danny's never-ending whinging that isn't that bad a result. Maritimes is also the region with the highest undecided vote.

The Conservatives are only two points away from majority territory.

It's a little odd all of the NDP freefall appears to be going to the Conservatives. Maybe the Liberals are losing a centrist voter to the CPC for every disenchanted dipper they pick up.

[Shakeyhands]

Tories lead Grits, NDP slides. Link

CPC 36%

LPC 33%

NDP 13%

BQ 10%

Green 8%

The Conservatives are only two points away from majority territory.

amazing really, given the margin of error. 3%+ Nationally and the margin covered in every area but the west. Wow.... majority territory for sure! Whats really amazing is that even though the accusations of lack of policy direction and such a weak leader the Liberals are within striking distance of a majority too...

Theres really no need even to read this thread, you can see who is ahead by who the last poster is.

[jdobbin]

Tories lead Grits, NDP slides. Link

CPC 36%

LPC 33%

NDP 13%

BQ 10%

Green 8%

Interesting poll. The Conservatives gained ground in every region of the country but the Maritimes. Even there they only dropped four points. Given Danny's never-ending whinging that isn't that bad a result. Maritimes is also the region with the highest undecided vote.

The Conservatives are only two points away from majority territory.

It's a little odd all of the NDP freefall appears to be going to the Conservatives. Maybe the Liberals are losing a centrist voter to the CPC for every disenchanted dipper they pick up.

The Ipsos Reid pollster said this back in April when the Tories reached 38% of the vote.

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/politics...4ac&k=92081

The numbers are probably enough for Mr. Harper to win another minority government, but they fall short of the 40 per cent benchmark for majority government territory, said pollster Darrell Bricker, Ipsos-Reid president.

While enthusiastic Tory supporters might think 38% is the mark they need to get an election victory, clearly Harper didn't think so or we would have had a spring election.

The Liberals continue to lead in Ontario and are just one point down from the Tories in Quebec. These are key areas that the Tories need to do better in before a majority can be won.

NDP voters are not necessarily going to the Tories. In Quebec, where they lost support, they could be going to the BQ. In Atlantic Canada, where they went down, they could have gone to the Liberals.

Also, in the SES poll.

http://lfpress.ca/newsstand/News/National/...416253-sun.html

On the leadership front, the poll shows Harper has slipped marginally as Canadians' top pick as leader.

About 31 per cent of those polled think he'd make the nation's best leader, down slightly from 33 per cent three months ago.

Liberal Leader Stephane Dion climbed to 23 per cent popularity from 15 per cent, while Jack Layton dropped one point to 18 per cent.

Dion was up in every region. It would appear that he finally getting people to notice his performance but still has work to go.

http://calsun.canoe.ca/News/National/2007/...416412-sun.html

The SES pollster said the main thing from this shuffle will be to give Harper some distance that he doesn't have from issues.

SES president Nik Nanos said since the numbers appear stuck for the Conservatives, the timing is likely right for Harper to rejig his cabinet and map out new priorities for the fall.

But the static scores show Harper might also be wise to delegate more front-line authority to his ministers to avoid wearing every unpopular issue like the war in Afghanistan.

"If I was looking at these numbers I would be saying it's important for Stephen Harper to shift gears and start focusing on the team," he said.

"To elevate, from a public profile point of view, some of his senior cabinet ministers -- because right now he has no buffer between himself and these issues."

Edited August 14, 2007 by jdobbin

[M.Dancer]

Dion's numbers will fall when he starts on the campaign trail this winter. It seems he wants to bring down the government in the fall....when the Media starts to focus on Dion I think most Canadians will see how out of touch he is. Then it will come down between those who vote and hold their nose and those who hold their nose and vote. Either way the liberals will lose support and the CPC will gain. It is only a question of how much.

[jdobbin]

Dion's numbers will fall when he starts on the campaign trail this winter. It seems he wants to bring down the government in the fall....when the Media starts to focus on Dion I think most Canadians will see how out of touch he is. Then it will come down between those who vote and hold their nose and those who hold their nose and vote. Either way the liberals will lose support and the CPC will gain. It is only a question of how much.

Yes, we've heard this story before. If Harper believed Dion was weak, he would have pulled the plug in the spring. It would appear that he doesn't want a repeat of minority government because that is all Canadians have given him in terms of support.

Here is what the SES pollster said about leader support.

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/43

Some very interesting movement on the best PM front. The Harper 18 point best PM advantage over Dion has melted away to an 8 point advantage in 90 days. The noticeable gains for Dion have been in Ontario.

I think a repeat of a minority would be a bitter pill to swallow for Harper and his party. It will be harder to keep a hold of the leadership if can't deliver a majority.

Edited August 14, 2007 by jdobbin

[M.Dancer]

Yes, we've heard this story before. If Harper believed Dion was weak, he would have pulled the plug in the spring. It would appear that he doesn't want a repeat of minority government because that is all Canadians have given him in terms of support.

I think a repeat of a minority would be a bitter pill to swallow for Harper and his party. It will be harder to keep a hold of the leadership if can't deliver a majority.

I think not wanting a another minority is the reason that Harper didn't visit Rideau Hall. Why not let Canadians have a chance to get to know Dion first then get a shot at a majority. The dangers are manifold for calling an election when 1) no one wnats one. 2) not letting the new leader settle in.

With that said, I think another Harper Minority would be the absolute best possible outcome.

[jdobbin]

With that said, I think another Harper Minority would be the absolute best possible outcome.

That would seem to be the idea of a number of Canadians. They always fall short of giving Harper a ringing endorsement.

As far as hoping Dion's support would evaporate, his personal support has risen dramatically according to SES. While you seem to think he will implode, he has been able to build his numbers over the summer. He has translated those numbers into fair sized gains in Ontario and the Liberals are solidly in the lead there. He has stabilized the numbers in Quebec to a point or a tie with the Tories according to SES and Decima.

Harper's party would probably regard anything aside from a majority as a disappointment. It is likely that questions on Harper's ability to get the party to next level would start within the party.

Edited August 14, 2007 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

So dobbin if you really know so well what Harper thinks why do you keep contradicting yourself?

Did Harper not 'pull the plug' because he doesn't think 38% is the mark they need to get an election victory? That doesn't make any sense at all. Did you mean a majority?

While enthusiastic Tory supporters might think 38% is the mark they need to get an election victory, clearly Harper didn't think so or we would have had a spring election.

Or is it because Harper didn't believe Dion was weak?

If Harper believed Dion was weak, he would have pulled the plug in the spring. It would appear that he doesn't want a repeat of minority government because that is all Canadians have given him in terms of support.

It's very shakey reasoning that you can claim to "know" what Harper is thinking and use one act, i.e. not calling a spring election, as support for a number of different assertions. But hey, deinal ain't just a river in Egypt.

[Vancouver King]

A heartening report card for Harper from the country's most dependable oracle. The measured 4 point jump is huge in a business where tiny fractions of increase are heralded as undeniable trends. A govt adrift? Not according to these latest SES numbers.

[Michael Bluth]

A heartening report card for Harper from the country's most dependable oracle. The measured 4 point jump is huge in a business where tiny fractions of increase are heralded as undeniable trends. A govt adrift? Not according to these latest SES numbers.

Sarcasm doesn't really come across very well online.

That being said, there is a lot more truth to what you wrote than I believe was intended.

[jdobbin]

So dobbin if you really know so well what Harper thinks why do you keep contradicting yourself?

Did Harper not 'pull the plug' because he doesn't think 38% is the mark they need to get an election victory? That doesn't make any sense at all. Did you mean a majority?

Or is it because Harper didn't believe Dion was weak?

It's very shakey reasoning that you can claim to "know" what Harper is thinking and use one act, i.e. not calling a spring election, as support for a number of different assertions. But hey, deinal ain't just a river in Egypt.

I think I clearly said "majority" over the course of a number of posts there. Victory would not be winning another minority, in my view. I posted that 38% is not the mark that most pollsters say that Harper needs to win a majority. It is obvious you think that is all he needs. I have no idea why given that too much support for the Tories is concentrated in areas they have already won. You seem to be in denial if you think that 38% will do for a majority.

I have never said I know what Harper is thinking. I said "if." However, Dion could not have been much weaker than a few months ago into the job and when a few polls said Harper was just shy of 40% (or in the case of Angus Reid at 40%). Harper's priorities were all "met" in the spring, his budget was approved and yet... he pulled back from an election. Subsequently, the next number of weeks were ones that gave the Liberals a chance to stabilize their support and raise Dion's profile.

Once again, I think it is you who is in denial thinking that everything was not gearing up for an election. You certainly were. or don't you recall your riding by riding assessments?

Edited August 14, 2007 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

I said "if."

Once you said 'if' and once you didn't. 50% factualness is better than your historical track record I guess.

However, Dion could not have been much weaker than a few months ago into the job

Until the first English language debate of the next Federal Election. He could definitely end up being a lot weaker.

Harper's priorities were all "met" in the spring, his budget was approved and yet... he pulled back from an election.

That would be the same time at which all of the polls were saying the vast majority of Canadians didn't want an election. Could it be that Harper didn't call an election because the people speficially did not want one.

Once again, I think it is you who is in denial thinking that everything was not gearing up for an election. You certainly were. or don't you recall your riding by riding assessments?

I never denied that all parties were gearing up for an election. I differ from you in the reason why one wasn't called. You seem to be using the fact an election wasn't called as proof of anything good about the Liberals or bad about the Conservatives. Me? I think an election wasn't called because most Canadians didn't want one?

Edited August 14, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[jdobbin]

Once you said 'if' and once you didn't. 50% factualness is better than your historical track record I guess.

Until the first English language debate of the next Federal Election. He could definitely end up being a lot weaker.

That would be the same time at which all of the polls were saying the vast majority of Canadians didn't want an election. Could it be that Harper didn't call an election because the people speficially did not want one.

I never denied that all parties were gearing up for an election. I differ from you in the reason why one wasn't called. You seem to be using the fact an election wasn't called as proof of anything good about the Liberals or bad about the Conservatives. Me? I think an election wasn't called because most Canadians didn't want one?

You are quite the joker. Sort of like how you made a sexist comment and have forever been running from it.

Once again, if Harper thought he could deliver a knock out punch to Dion in the debates, he would have called the election this past spring. I guess he wasn't as confident of that as you are.

The polls also said that people didn't want an election when Harper brought down the Paul Martin. We had an election anyways.

Not calling an election had nothing to do with the fact that the polls said it would be a repeat of the last election? Okay. I guess you can allow yourself that thought.

[Michael Bluth]

Once again, if Harper thought he could deliver a knock out punch to Dion in the debates, he would have called the election this past spring. I guess he wasn't as confident of that as you are.

Yet another pro-Liberal and/or anti-CPC reason for Harper not calling an election in the spring. I'm sure you'll come up with more.

The polls also said that people didn't want an election when Harper brought down the Paul Martin. We had an election anyways.

I wasn't aware that Harper had the power in late 2005 to bring down Martin unilaterally. Oh wait, that's right, he didn't. I remember Liberal candidates trying to blame the election on Harper. Too bad for Martin the electorate didn't see it that way.

Not calling an election had nothing to do with the fact that the polls said it would be a repeat of the last election? Okay. I guess you can allow yourself that thought.

What is that seven pro-Liberal and/or anti-CPC reasons for Harper not calling an election in the spring? Can you at least give us a number you will stop at? 10? 50? 100?

Edited August 15, 2007 by Michael Bluth

[Who's Doing What?]

I see the whole " Me and my shadow" routine is still alive and well.

[jdobbin]

Yet another pro-Liberal and/or anti-CPC reason for Harper not calling an election in the spring. I'm sure you'll come up with more.

I wasn't aware that Harper had the power in late 2005 to bring down Martin unilaterally. Oh wait, that's right, he didn't. I remember Liberal candidates trying to blame the election on Harper. Too bad for Martin the electorate didn't see it that way.

What is that seven pro-Liberal and/or anti-CPC reasons for Harper not calling an election in the spring? Can you at least give us a number you will stop at? 10? 50? 100?

And I'm sure you'll stay in denial. Just like you have done about making sexist statements.

I was referring to the last confidence vote that brought Martin down. The polls leading up to it indicated that an election was not wanted. Harper initiated a confidence measure for an election anyway.

Edited August 15, 2007 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

I was referring to the last confidence vote that brought Martin down. The polls leading up to it indicated that an election was not wanted. Harper initiated a confidence measure for an election anyway.

I wasn't aware that Harper had the power in late 2005 to bring down Martin unilaterally. Again with the hair splitting?

[jdobbin]

I wasn't aware that Harper had the power in late 2005 to bring down Martin unilaterally. Again with the hair splitting?

I don't recall saying unilaterally. I said helped initiate. But then I'd not expect someone to understand that when he can't understand his own sexist statements.

Edited August 15, 2007 by jdobbin

[Michael Bluth]

I don't recall saying unilaterally. I said helped initiate. But then I'd not expect someone to understand that when he can't understand his own sexist statements.

Actually, you said...

The polls also said that people didn't want an election when Harper brought down the Paul Martin. We had an election anyways.

That was implied to mean 'helped initiate'?

[jdobbin]

Actually, you said...

That was implied to mean 'helped initiate'?

He brought down the government with his support of non-confidence even when polls said that an election was not wanted. Not so hard to understand but maybe for someone who can't remember his sexist statement.

[Michael Bluth]

---End of Dobbin's latest tangent---

Here is the most interesting part of Nik Nanos' blog post.

Even with Harper’s diluted leadership advantage, Tory support moved up albeit just outside of the accuracy for the survey

That is interesting. It appears that there is becoming more of a connection between people's view of the leaders and their party affiliation.

This makes it far more likely that the next Federal Election will become a Harper vs. Dion referendum.

It will be Harper's third election as leader, but Dion's first. Advantage Harper.

[jdobbin]

Here is the most interesting part of Nik Nanos' blog post.

That is interesting. It appears that there is becoming more of a connection between people's view of the leaders and their party affiliation.

This makes it far more likely that the next Federal Election will become a Harper vs. Dion referendum.

It will be Harper's third election as leader, but Dion's first. Advantage Harper.

That would be bad news for Harper since his big lead over Dion has closed quite a bit in 90 days.

Harper might indeed win an election if held today but he is not close to a majority. 38% won't cut it despite what you have said.

Now, will you deal with your sexist statement? Why the shame in not acknowledging the hypocrisy of criticizing Kinsella and then on the same day make sexist comments on Ruby Dhalla?

[Michael Bluth]

That would be bad news for Harper since his big lead over Dion has closed quite a bit in 90 days.

Harper might indeed win an election if held today but he is not close to a majority. 38% won't cut it despite what you have said.

The lead over Dion has closed, but it is still almost double digits.

I have said the 38% is a possible level for a majority given the chance for the Greens to have an influence on the election.

[jdobbin]

The lead over Dion has closed, but it is still almost double digits.

I have said the 38% is a possible level for a majority given the chance for the Greens to have an influence on the election.

The Greens have dropped considerably in this poll. The NDP have dropped in this poll. The dream of a 38% majority is just that: a dream. Something you are in denial about as much as you are about your sexist statement.