Canadian Political Polls

[geoffrey]

With the current standings the Conservatives have a shot at a majority with another strong campaign.

I dispute that. Look at individual seats, you'll be hard pressed to find 15 in range... not including the big losses in BC that are likely looking at the even most favourable polling.

Geoff, weren't you arguing for Bernard Lord as the next CPC leader? Say what you will but nothing he ever did as Premier of NB or has said would give any indication that he would be more conservative than Harper as PM.

Lord cut taxes (reduced government income per GDP dollar), Lord brought in massive amounts of investment into NB and is extremly pro-business.

There is no evidence that Harper is a conservative from his record. Higher tax revenues (because of an income tax hike), double the rate of inflation spending, set to put massive pressures on Alberta industry through carbon caps.

What exactly has Harper done that is fiscally conservative, other than cut the ridiculous funding of special interest groups (all for a few million)? Absolutely nothing. Nothing at all.

Why, as a fiscal conservative and a mostly social liberal, would I vote for him? Why would I vote for Dion either?

The majority of people like me, making up the majority of Canada, have no representation. I choose not to vote, most will pick one or the other. Few will be completely satisfied beyond the partisan hacks that still believe that Harper is conservative or that Dion is anything remotely close to a Liberal of the early Chretien days.

Would you vote for Lord knowing he wouldn't be as conservative as you would like?

I wouldn't vote for Harper. I see Lord as an improvement, and he's electable to a majority. Is he the ideal, no.

But no candidate in Canada is going to take my positions on most things, so I'll have to deal with that. Harper's record is not anything near my views though.

[Michael Bluth]

Lord raised spending in his last budget.

He probably would have raised it had he been in office this time around.

If Lord were to take over as PM for the next budget I could see him raising spending.

The tax cuts he introduced in NB were necessitated by the spending of the time.

I don't think he would be an improvement by the standards you lay out.

[Martin Chriton]

Remember, 'throw the corrupt Liberals out', is no longer in play. To the left, a 'scary' Conservative majority is.

The only people that that should be scared of a Harper majority at this point are fiscal conservatives. If Harper gets a majority the left would seem to win.

[jdobbin]

The only people that that should be scared of a Harper majority at this point are fiscal conservatives. If Harper gets a majority the left would seem to win.

Fiscal restraint is indeed an important issue for many people. It is an issue I've voted for in the past. Times are good and the government continues to spend above what they promised to spend in the last campaign. And not by a little but but by a long shot.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll.

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/s...88-8bd3dcf80bfe

The survey says the Conservatives have 38-per-cent support, up two points from the election; Stephane Dion's Liberals are up one point to 31 per cent; the NDP is down three points to 14 per cent; the Bloc Quebecois dropped three points to eight per cent, and the Green party is up three points to eight per cent.

"It's bouncing around the margin of error. You can actually draw almost five straight lines (from the election to now)," said Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Reid. "The basic point remains salient, which is that when you take a look at the Tories' ability to break out of minority territory, they haven't been able to demonstrate it. And the Liberals are not going away."

This poll didn't take in the global warming legislation late in the week.

It is still pretty much the same result as the election.

[Michael Bluth]

The survey says the Conservatives have 38-per-cent support, up two points from the election; Stephane Dion's Liberals are up one point to 31 per cent; the NDP is down three points to 14 per cent; the Bloc Quebecois dropped three points to eight per cent, and the Green party is up three points to eight per cent.

The Liberals won a majority in 1997 with 38% of the vote.

Definitely within spitting distance of a majority.

[Vancouver King]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll.

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/s...88-8bd3dcf80bfe

The survey says the Conservatives have 38-per-cent support, up two points from the election; Stephane Dion's Liberals are up one point to 31 per cent; the NDP is down three points to 14 per cent; the Bloc Quebecois dropped three points to eight per cent, and the Green party is up three points to eight per cent.

"It's bouncing around the margin of error. You can actually draw almost five straight lines (from the election to now)," said Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Reid. "The basic point remains salient, which is that when you take a look at the Tories' ability to break out of minority territory, they haven't been able to demonstrate it. And the Liberals are not going away."

This poll didn't take in the global warming legislation late in the week.

It is still pretty much the same result as the election.

Nor did it take into account this week's high profile disarray on the Tory front bench and a deepening Afghanistan morass with prisoner mistreatment now added to body bags, lack of exit strategy and civilian oversight.

[jdobbin]

Nor did it take into account this week's high profile disarray on the Tory front bench and a deepening Afghanistan morass with prisoner mistreatment now added to body bags, lack of exit strategy and civilian oversight.

The poll was done up till Thursday but you're right, it may take a few more days for the public to absorb what is happening since it is an ongoing story.

[Michael Bluth]

Nor did it take into account this week's high profile disarray on the Tory front bench and a deepening Afghanistan morass with prisoner mistreatment now added to body bags, lack of exit strategy and civilian oversight.

Nor did it take into account the anti-Israel writings of a nominated Federal Liberal candidate.

[jdobbin]

Latest Decima. Looks like the Liberals have moved into a tie with the Conservatives.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/poll_tories_liberals

The Decima poll, provided exclusively to The Canadian Press, indicates the Tories have slipped to 30 per cent - putting them in a statistical tie with the Liberals who rose two points to 31 per cent.

But Decima's trend - a trend borne out by other surveys - brings little joy for the Liberals. While the Conservatives have been sagging, Stephane Dion's Liberals remain unable to capitalize on the governing Conservatives' struggles.

The NDP's support in the latest poll stood at 15 per cent and the Greens at 13 per cent.

Can it get only worse from here on in? Should Harper have called an election a month ago?

[mikedavid00]

Just a month ago, the Tories were edging close to the 40-per-cent threshold needed to win a majority. Harper was winning plaudits for competence and decisiveness, his government's second budget was boosting the Tories' popularity and negative ads targetting Dion appeared to be having the desired effect of taking the lustre off the new Liberal leader.

But the Tories have since been hit by a series of controversies over their climate-change plan,

Well that's what happens when headlines are released saying that we should expect to pay $200-$300 more per appliance.

I certainly no longer support the CPC.

I have no become the typical voter: I find the CPC the lesser of two evils.

[Catchme]

Well the CPC=Liberal=the Greens, so really I do not see a lesser of any evils in those 3 parties.

But the drop down to 30% by the CPC must be really shaking the one man show in Ottawa, eh? The MP's may have kept a low profile doing nothing without Harper's say prior, when numbers were not bad. Now the knives must be coming out, and it won't be pretty.

[jdobbin]

Well the CPC=Liberal=the Greens, so really I do not see a lesser of any evils in those 3 parties.

But the drop down to 30% by the CPC must be really shaking the one man show in Ottawa, eh? The MP's may have kept a low profile doing nothing without Harper's say prior, when numbers were not bad. Now the knives must be coming out, and it won't be pretty.

What do you mean in the first sentence?

As to the last part of what you said, it appears that Atlantic Tory MPs are already balking at the budget. The low Conservative support is probably in part due to how the Atlantic provinces feel about equalization.

[Vancouver King]

Well the CPC=Liberal=the Greens, so really I do not see a lesser of any evils in those 3 parties.

But the drop down to 30% by the CPC must be really shaking the one man show in Ottawa, eh? The MP's may have kept a low profile doing nothing without Harper's say prior, when numbers were not bad. Now the knives must be coming out, and it won't be pretty.

It might be premature to equate the surging Greens with Liberal and Conservative levels of support, although it's 13% showing in this latest sounding borders on the astonishing. If Stephen Harper needed any further evidence that global warming/the environment is not just a flavor of the month voter issue, this Green percentage is it.

The Tories risk defeat with thinly veiled oil patch priorities at the expense of the public interest.

[ScottSA]

Green is in fact the flavour of the month. What matters in the election is people's pocketbooks.

[Vancouver King]

Green is in fact the flavour of the month. What matters in the election is people's pocketbooks.

People's pocketbooks were bursting in January, '06, the treasury was awash in surpluses and there was an SUV in every driveway. Did that help the Liberals?

Btw, is it too early to begin to refer to Tories as the 'second party'?

[Michael Bluth]

People's pocketbooks were bursting in January, '06, the treasury was awash in surpluses and there was an SUV in every driveway. Did that help the Liberals?

No. Because the CPC offered the better fiscal plan.

[M.Dancer]

People's pocketbooks were bursting in January, '06, the treasury was awash in surpluses and there was an SUV in every driveway. Did that help the Liberals?

No. Because the CPC offered the better fiscal plan.

No I don't think that was it at all. The CPC were trashed for giving $100 away to parents whether they needed it or not, for raising taxes on lower incomers and the bogus 1% gst cut which was not seen at the tills......

No the CPC won more votes simply because Canadians were tired of the scandal plagued Liberals. I would wager that had Goodall and the Income Trust scandal not erupted weeks befor the election that the liberals would be the Minority govt in power

[Michael Bluth]

No I don't think that was it at all. The CPC were trashed for giving $100 away to parents whether they needed it or not, for raising taxes on lower incomers and the bogus 1% gst cut which was not seen at the tills......

No the CPC won more votes simply because Canadians were tired of the scandal plagued Liberals. I would wager that had Goodall and the Income Trust scandal not erupted weeks befor the election that the liberals would be the Minority govt in power

The childcare plan and GST cut were trashed by the *experts*, but no the people who voted for the Conservatives.

Had the Liberals won, we would see two new leaders at the moment and another election would probably have already happened.

[geoffrey]

Had the Liberals won, we would see two new leaders at the moment and another election would probably have already happened.

Mmmm, now we're talking.

[Canadian Blue]

I rarely pay attention to these polls, they essentially show the same story from before. What will matter is the election, and those will be the only polls I will pay any attention to.

[Vancouver King]

What will matter is the election, and those will be the only polls I will pay any attention to.

The timing of that election will be determined in large part by party standings in the latest polls.

[jdobbin]

The latest poll from Ipsos Reid.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/070505/...da_politics_col

The Conservatives are losing voter support and there is little to separate them from the opposition Liberals, according to an opinion poll published on Saturday.

The poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid and published by the CanWest group of newspapers, put support for the Conservatives at 35 percent, compared to 34 percent for the Liberals.

Support for the Conservatives peaked at 40 percent in late March but has slipped amid voter concern about the government's environmental policies and Canada's role with NATO forces in Afghanistan.

The Conservatives had 38 percent support in an April 14 Ipsos Reid poll, while the Liberals had 32 percent.

The Conservatives were elected in January 2006 but hold only a minority of the seats in parliament and need support from at least one other party to stay in power.

An election is due by January 2011 at the latest but minority governments in Canada tend to last only 18 months, on average.

"It's been a bad couple of weeks," pollster Darrell Bricker told the newspaper group. "This always was a government on training wheels, and the wheels are wobbling."

The latest poll put support for the left-wing New Democratic Party at 14 percent and the environmentalist Green Party at 7 percent. The Greens have no seats in parliament.

Tories ahead by 1%. We'll see if they can recover any momentum this week with some legislation on accountability that they plan to introduce.

[normanchateau]

The latest poll from Ipsos Reid.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/070505/...da_politics_col

The Conservatives are losing voter support and there is little to separate them from the opposition Liberals, according to an opinion poll published on Saturday.

The poll, conducted by Ipsos Reid and published by the CanWest group of newspapers, put support for the Conservatives at 35 percent, compared to 34 percent for the Liberals.

Support for the Conservatives peaked at 40 percent in late March but has slipped amid voter concern about the government's environmental policies and Canada's role with NATO forces in Afghanistan.

The Conservatives had 38 percent support in an April 14 Ipsos Reid poll, while the Liberals had 32 percent.

The Conservatives were elected in January 2006 but hold only a minority of the seats in parliament and need support from at least one other party to stay in power.

An election is due by January 2011 at the latest but minority governments in Canada tend to last only 18 months, on average.

"It's been a bad couple of weeks," pollster Darrell Bricker told the newspaper group. "This always was a government on training wheels, and the wheels are wobbling."

The latest poll put support for the left-wing New Democratic Party at 14 percent and the environmentalist Green Party at 7 percent. The Greens have no seats in parliament.

Tories ahead by 1%. We'll see if they can recover any momentum this week with some legislation on accountability that they plan to introduce.

So now we know that the Decima poll was no fluke. Even Ipsos-Reid now has no statistical difference between the Liberals and Conservatives. This despite a March budget that shovelled money off the back of the truck to Quebec yet the Conservatives remain in third place in Quebec in both the Ipsos-Reid and Decima polls. You'd think that Harper would have learned by now that bribing Quebecers with money from other Canadians would not get him elected.

Having sold out to Quebec, having abandoned fiscal conservatism and even having supported a motion to investigate whether Shane Doan is racist, what can Harper possibly due now to get his elusive majority?

Abandon his social conservatism and pretend to be a liberal. It's the one dimension on which Harper has yet to redefine himself.

[Michael Bluth]

even having supported a motion to investigate whether Shane Doan is racist, what can Harper possibly due now to get his elusive majority?\

Harper called Doan personally to send him well wishes.

What do yoiu think Doan cares more about? The phone call or the motion in committe.