Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

SES says Afghanistan could hurt Tories, especially in Quebec.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...10?hub=Politics

f casualties there swing upward, the Afghanistan mission could provide a political liability for the governing Conservatives -- particularly in Quebec, says a pollster.

"The wild card is that this mission is seen to be very closely associated with the U.S., and that's bad political news for (Prime Minister) Stephen Harper," Nick Nanos of SES Research told CTV Newsnet's Mike Duffy Live on Tuesday.

I don't think it matters what party is in power in regards to this. Liberal, Tory...whatever...there would be a slump at the polls. Support for the troops is high, support for the overall mission is not. It is highly dependent on casualties and seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

[Michael Bluth]

I don't think it matters what party is in power in regards to this. Liberal, Tory...whatever...there would be a slump at the polls. Support for the troops is high, support for the overall mission is not. It is highly dependent on casualties and seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

The mission will hurt the Conservatives least of all.

Those voters likely to base their voting choice on opposition to a military mission aren't in the Conservative's universe anyways..

[Canadian Blue]

Unless the mission becomes less popular, especially in Quebec. It could hurt the Tories the most, as it had during the summer.

[Vancouver King]

Unless the mission becomes less popular, especially in Quebec. It could hurt the Tories the most, as it had during the summer.

To those wondering why the Maritimes, with less than 10% of Canada's population, suffers 400% more fatalities in Afghanistan than would be expected based on population, the answer lies above. Incredibly, Harper's govt has held back deployment of Quebec's fabled Van Doos as a nod to Quebec's anti-war sensibilities.

Does there remain a shred of doubt this govt will do anything to get reelected?

[Michael Bluth]

To those wondering why the Maritimes, with less than 10% of Canada's population, suffers 400% more fatalities in Afghanistan than would be expected based on population, the answer lies above. Incredibly, Harper's govt has held back deployment of Quebec's fabled Van Doos as a nod to Quebec's anti-war sensibilities.

Does there remain a shred of doubt this govt will do anything to get reelected?

You are comparing apples to oranges.

The Maritimes higher than expected casualty rates is not based just on the Van Doos being held back.

The Maritimes also constitute a much higher percentage of the Canadian forces than their percentage of the Canadian population.

The economic impact of military spending on the Maritimes is much higher, proportionally, than would be expected under just the basis of population.

How about giving those numbers, and not trying to ascribe it all on the deployment of one regiment?

Yes, there remains a number of "doubts" as to what this Government will do.

[jdobbin]

To those wondering why the Maritimes, with less than 10% of Canada's population, suffers 400% more fatalities in Afghanistan than would be expected based on population, the answer lies above. Incredibly, Harper's govt has held back deployment of Quebec's fabled Van Doos as a nod to Quebec's anti-war sensibilities.

Does there remain a shred of doubt this govt will do anything to get reelected?

The Van Doos will be there in August for six months.

In any event, popularity drops for the government whenever there are casualties. People here may wish to downplay it and say it doesn't hurt the Tories but it has and it did last year right up until Karzai came and when casualties dropped. In the last two weeks, there have been nine coalition deaths.

There is an attempt to finally put an end to the Taliban but the outstanding issue of Pakistan helping the fighters remains outstanding.

[Michael Bluth]

In any event, popularity drops for the government whenever there are casualties. People here may wish to downplay it and say it doesn't hurt the Tories but it has and it did last year right up until Karzai came and when casualties dropped. In the last two weeks, there have been nine coalition deaths.

Coalition deaths aren't what people care about. People care about Canadian casualties.

There is an attempt to finally put an end to the Taliban but the outstanding issue of Pakistan helping the fighters remains outstanding.

Outstanding issues are always outstanding. Aren't they?

[Figleaf]

Headline: Tories Attempt to Dismiss Latest Polls

Headline: Some Irrational Pollsters Create Imaginary Headlines.

If you're thinking about becoming a headline writer, I advise you not to quit your day job as a political hack.

[stignasty]

Afghan casualties could hurt Tories: pollster

Updated Tue. Apr. 10 2007 10:26 PM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

If casualties there swing upward, the Afghanistan mission could provide a political liability for the governing Conservatives -- particularly in Quebec, says a pollster.

"The wild card is that this mission is seen to be very closely associated with the U.S., and that's bad political news for (Prime Minister) Stephen Harper," Nick Nanos of SES Research told CTV Newsnet's Mike Duffy Live on Tuesday.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...10?hub=Politics

[Catchme]

Interesting views:

Overall, though, Canadians are undecided and frustrated. The recent budget tabled by the Harper government has done little to galvanise the masses. Historic in its spending scope – Harper’s finance minister Jim Flaherty has gone down in history books as the biggest spender of all time – as well as in its failure to deliver what a majority of Canadians wanted — e.g., tax cuts. Many voters, therefore, have become utterly disillusioned with politics and, in particular, the two main parties, the Conservative and Liberal parties.

Even in Alberta, which is often called the “Tory Fortress”, people are beginning to look at other options, including the Green Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP). Canadian politics has always been dominated by the two main parties, with the Liberals holding power most of the time. Time to cut them loose and give other parties a chance, people are saying... Looking at the polls of recent weeks and months again, both parties have made significant gains. The NDP has gone as high as 17%..the NDP and Green Party are known for their commitment to progressive policies. Since a majority of Canadian voters are progressive, it should not be too difficult for these two parties to make inroads....

Layton seems to have awakened to the necessity of making his party a more pragmatic party — a strategy that is beginning to bear fruit as Canadians tell their pollsters that they think that Layton would be a better prime minister than Stéphane Dion. In fact, if there is one common thread that permeates all the polls published in the last four months, it is that Layton is regularly ranked ahead of Dion in terms of leadership and being prime ministerial material...

http://www.albertapundit.com/?p=1336

[Vancouver King]

Interesting views:

Overall, though, Canadians are undecided and frustrated. The recent budget tabled by the Harper government has done little to galvanise the masses. Historic in its spending scope – Harper’s finance minister Jim Flaherty has gone down in history books as the biggest spender of all time – as well as in its failure to deliver what a majority of Canadians wanted — e.g., tax cuts. Many voters, therefore, have become utterly disillusioned with politics and, in particular, the two main parties, the Conservative and Liberal parties.

Even in Alberta, which is often called the “Tory Fortress”, people are beginning to look at other options, including the Green Party and the New Democratic Party (NDP). Canadian politics has always been dominated by the two main parties, with the Liberals holding power most of the time. Time to cut them loose and give other parties a chance, people are saying... Looking at the polls of recent weeks and months again, both parties have made significant gains. The NDP has gone as high as 17%..the NDP and Green Party are known for their commitment to progressive policies. Since a majority of Canadian voters are progressive, it should not be too difficult for these two parties to make inroads....

Layton seems to have awakened to the necessity of making his party a more pragmatic party — a strategy that is beginning to bear fruit as Canadians tell their pollsters that they think that Layton would be a better prime minister than Stéphane Dion. In fact, if there is one common thread that permeates all the polls published in the last four months, it is that Layton is regularly ranked ahead of Dion in terms of leadership and being prime ministerial material...

http://www.albertapundit.com/?p=1336

The lack of upward poll movement by Layton's party, particularly given a raw, unproven Liberal leader, can be traced to his unfathomable decision to play footsie with the Tories on the environment file. Forget the notion of NDP gains attributable to Dion's inexperience or disillusionment with the two old line parties; on the contrary expect hundreds of thousands of leftists, in the eleventh hour, to bleed strategically from their socialist home into the Liberal column.

Among New Democrats a Harper majority remains a scary prospect.

[M.Dancer]

Among New Democrats a Harper majority remains a scary prospect.

Among the dippers, almost 20% think Harper will make the best PM.....

http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-S07-T230.pdf

[Vancouver King]

Among New Democrats a Harper majority remains a scary prospect.

Among the dippers, almost 20% think Harper will make the best PM.....

http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-S07-T230.pdf

...which also means 80% don't.

[M.Dancer]

Which given how low their support is, the potential for 1/5 to swing is devastating.....

[Michael Bluth]

Among New Democrats a Harper majority remains a scary prospect.

There are actually people out there who really think scary-scary-scary will work again.

[ScottSA]

The lack of upward poll movement by Layton's party, particularly given a raw, unproven Liberal leader, can be traced to his unfathomable decision to play footsie with the Tories on the environment file. Forget the notion of NDP gains attributable to Dion's inexperience or disillusionment with the two old line parties; on the contrary expect hundreds of thousands of leftists, in the eleventh hour, to bleed strategically from their socialist home into the Liberal column.

Among New Democrats a Harper majority remains a scary prospect.

This was the dream of the Libs last election too. Didn't happen then and won't happen now. If the soft center vote swings to the Cons enough to give Harper a majority, it presupposes a number of things in the Ontario and Quebec urban areas, all of which make the Dipper vote irrelevant. That's the joy of not having proportional representation in the HoC.

[M.Dancer]

The lack of upward poll movement by Layton's party, particularly given a raw, unproven Liberal leader, can be traced to his unfathomable decision to play footsie with the Tories on the environment file. Forget the notion of NDP gains attributable to Dion's inexperience or disillusionment with the two old line parties; on the contrary expect hundreds of thousands of leftists, in the eleventh hour, to bleed strategically from their socialist home into the Liberal column.

Among New Democrats a Harper majority remains a scary prospect.

This was the dream of the Libs last election too. Didn't happen then and won't happen now. If the soft center vote swings to the Cons enough to give Harper a majority, it presupposes a number of things in the Ontario and Quebec urban areas, all of which make the Dipper vote irrelevant. That's the joy of not having proportional representation in the HoC.

The joy of not having PR is not having a 6% party become a king maker.....The NDP will settle into their traditional role of being the irrelevant party with the guiding conscious, the Liberals will eventually find a new helmsman, and the Conservatives will eventuall get a majority and by doing thus, give every canadian a fair opportunity toi hate them a fresh......

[Vancouver King]

[

The joy of not having PR is not having a 6% party become a king maker.....The NDP will settle into their traditional role of being the irrelevant party with the guiding conscious, the Liberals will eventually find a new helmsman, and the Conservatives will eventuall get a majority and by doing thus, give every canadian a fair opportunity toi hate them a fresh......

Ummm the NDP got 16% of the vote, not 6%. Does your 267% mistake change your views? I thought not.

[Canadian Blue]

The joy of not having PR is not having a 6% party become a king maker.....The NDP will settle into their traditional role of being the irrelevant party with the guiding conscious, the Liberals will eventually find a new helmsman, and the Conservatives will eventuall get a majority and by doing thus, give every canadian a fair opportunity toi hate them a fresh......

In some cases it can garauntee a virtual one party state as well.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/070414/...canada_poll_col

The Ipsos-Reid poll, published in the National Post newspaper, put support for the Conservatives at 38 percent, up from the 37 percent they won in the last election, but short of the 40 percent considered enough to ensure a majority.

"The reality is they would win (an election) with these numbers, but for a majority there is still some work to be done," pollster Darrell Bricker told the newspaper.

No date has been set for the next election, but most observers expect it to be held next year, or possibly later this year.

The opposition Liberals had 32 percent support, while the left-wing New Democratic Party had 14 percent.

The poll also showed a surge in Conservative support in French-speaking Quebec, where they were 10 points ahead of the Liberals for the first time, with 31 percent.

Still short of majority territory. Looks like Quebec has had a post budget surge.

[Michael Bluth]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/070414/...canada_poll_col

The Ipsos-Reid poll, published in the National Post newspaper, put support for the Conservatives at 38 percent, up from the 37 percent they won in the last election, but short of the 40 percent considered enough to ensure a majority.

"The reality is they would win (an election) with these numbers, but for a majority there is still some work to be done," pollster Darrell Bricker told the newspaper.

No date has been set for the next election, but most observers expect it to be held next year, or possibly later this year.

The opposition Liberals had 32 percent support, while the left-wing New Democratic Party had 14 percent.

The poll also showed a surge in Conservative support in French-speaking Quebec, where they were 10 points ahead of the Liberals for the first time, with 31 percent.

Still short of majority territory. Looks like Quebec has had a post budget surge.

Chretien won a majority in 1997 with a little less than 38.5% of the vote.

[geoffrey]

Important note, the CPC support is lower in Alberta, meaning it's higher elsewhere. They can drop all they want in Alberta without consequence. I'd look at accurate polling numbers in Quebec and Ontario to determine the difference.... if any such numbers existed.

[Michael Bluth]

Important note, the CPC support is lower in Alberta, meaning it's higher elsewhere. They can drop all they want in Alberta without consequence. I'd look at accurate polling numbers in Quebec and Ontario to determine the difference.... if any such numbers existed.

The Ipsos poll puts the Conservatives at 31% in QC and the Liberals at 21%.

Leaving the Conservatives poised to pick up 15 to 20 more seats there. Mostly at the expense of the Bloc.

[geoffrey]

Well, then I can hope that Harper will return to his ol' firewalling self with the majority he's aiming at. But he's not getting my vote based on this performance in this little minority government buyout that he's doing right now.

Somehow I feel I'll be as disatisfied 4 years from the beginning of said majority.

[M.Dancer]

Well, then I can hope that Harper will return to his ol' firewalling self with the majority he's aiming at. But he's not getting my vote based on this performance in this little minority government buyout that he's doing right now.

Somehow I feel I'll be as disatisfied 4 years from the beginning of said majority.

See, there's my conundrum.....he would get my vote based on his performance as the minority govt.....but that might help him get a majority.....so I may have to vote once again for Dr. Carolyn Bennett...but this time so that Harper stays PM of a minority..........