Canadian Political Polls

[Vancouver King]

I guess Harper could roll the dice and see what happens.

As spring rolls along, the issue of Afghanistan might play a stronger part in what people are thinking.

As a positive the Conservatives are the only party to be growing their support.

So the trend line is in the right direction.

For whatever reason the SES polls are continually showing the Conservatives with the lowest support of all the major polling companies. That being said they were the most accurate pollster in the last two elections.

Good news for the Conservatives.

It is a measure of your true blue credentials that 36% to 33% popularity numbers are somehow good news for the Tories. Reality check: Last election results were 36% to 31% - Harper has actually lost ground.

Who would have predicted it after billions in budget promises, millions spent on attack ads and now Canada's worst day ever in Afghanistan to blunt whatever momentum this new govt had going for it.

Take the champagne off ice, this is a govt in trouble.

[Canuck E Stan]

Take the champagne off ice, this is a govt in trouble.

No, leave it there.

The trouble will be for the Liberals.

Their leader is still Stephane Dion.

[Michael Bluth]

It is a measure of your true blue credentials that 36% to 33% popularity numbers are somehow good news for the Tories. Reality check: Last election results were 36% to 31% - Harper has actually lost ground.

Take the champagne off ice, this is a govt in trouble.

Uhhh, I meant going from 33% in the last SES Research poll to 36% in this one.

The Liberals. Hmmm, do explain how this is a government in trouble.

Of the last SIXTEEN polls by a variety of reputable pollsters (SES/Decima/Ipsos-Reid/Leger/Angus Reid/Strategic Counsel) the Conservatives have lead in each of them and their support has varied from 35 to 41%.

Hmmm, do explain how this is a government in trouble.

Stan made the best point. Stephane Dion as Liberal leader = another Conservative win.

[jdobbin]

It is a measure of your true blue credentials that 36% to 33% popularity numbers are somehow good news for the Tories. Reality check: Last election results were 36% to 31% - Harper has actually lost ground.

Who would have predicted it after billions in budget promises, millions spent on attack ads and now Canada's worst day ever in Afghanistan to blunt whatever momentum this new govt had going for it.

Take the champagne off ice, this is a govt in trouble.

Not sure they are in trouble. It just means the Tories have not had consistent numbers for a majority win. It keeps slipping back from the crucial 40% numbers. More importantly, Ontario keeps going back and forth between Liberals and Tories in various polls from different firms.

You're right about Afghanistan though. It would be tough for any government Liberal or Tory to command high numbers in government with Afghanistan overshadowing good news announcements. There is deep skepticism in all parts of the country over the mission's ultimate success.

[Vancouver King]

It is a measure of your true blue credentials that 36% to 33% popularity numbers are somehow good news for the Tories. Reality check: Last election results were 36% to 31% - Harper has actually lost ground.

Who would have predicted it after billions in budget promises, millions spent on attack ads and now Canada's worst day ever in Afghanistan to blunt whatever momentum this new govt had going for it.

Take the champagne off ice, this is a govt in trouble.

Not sure they are in trouble. It just means the Tories have not had consistent numbers for a majority win. It keeps slipping back from the crucial 40% numbers. More importantly, Ontario keeps going back and forth between Liberals and Tories in various polls from different firms.

You're right about Afghanistan though. It would be tough for any government Liberal or Tory to command high numbers in government with Afghanistan overshadowing good news announcements. There is deep skepticism in all parts of the country over the mission's ultimate success.

Such meagre returns for over a year of pull-no-punches Tory political efforts. Their troubles are confirmed by the only pollster who's accuracy in the last election was nothing short of spine tingling.

Posters here could be right that Harper's greatest asset is Dion as Liberal leader. I subscribe to the scenario that Dion's efforts at apprenticing in opposition will eventually pay dividends in additional competence and increasingly, in popularity.

That, along with Afghanistan and the environment, does not bode well for future Conservative fortunes.

[geoffrey]

Just as a little dose of reality into this conversation, SES's success in predicting the election last time doesn't mean they are any more accurate. All the reputable pollsters came within their margin of errors. SES got the statistical edge, the likelyhood of them acing it twice in a row? The same as any other pollster unfortunately.

[White Doors]

Green Party 6 percent was missing, though no loss, as a fringe party their future is in dire straights.

Another couple of elections and the Greens will have more of the popular vote than the NDP.

And I know you are very fearful of that catchme.

[Canadian Blue]

My hope is for a Conservative minority again, and afterwards hopefully the Liberals will ditch Stephane Dion in favour of, well, anybody else that was in the last leadership race. As well the "scary, scary" tactics probably won't work, which will negate strategic voting. The NDP will still win around 20% [large warchest], and the Greens might be able to break through the 10% barrier, but probably with no seats.

I think the Green Party is more or less a haven for people who are sick of the current political system. I'm not sure how well they will bode in the next election. My prediction, the Conservatives will gain in some parts of Ontario and Quebec, however will not get enough seats to win a majority. The Liberals will lose seats to the Conservatives, and some of their vote will instead move to the Greens or New Democrats. The NDP might pick up some seats, I have a feeling they could pick one or two up in Saskatchewan, and maybe a few in BC.

[Catchme]

It is a measure of your true blue credentials that 36% to 33% popularity numbers are somehow good news for the Tories. Reality check: Last election results were 36% to 31% - Harper has actually lost ground.

Who would have predicted it after billions in budget promises, millions spent on attack ads and now Canada's worst day ever in Afghanistan to blunt whatever momentum this new govt had going for it.

Take the champagne off ice, this is a govt in trouble.

Not sure they are in trouble. It just means the Tories have not had consistent numbers for a majority win. It keeps slipping back from the crucial 40% numbers. More importantly, Ontario keeps going back and forth between Liberals and Tories in various polls from different firms.

You're right about Afghanistan though. It would be tough for any government Liberal or Tory to command high numbers in government with Afghanistan overshadowing good news announcements. There is deep skepticism in all parts of the country over the mission's ultimate success.

Such meagre returns for over a year of pull-no-punches Tory political efforts. Their troubles are confirmed by the only pollster who's accuracy in the last election was nothing short of spine tingling.

Posters here could be right that Harper's greatest asset is Dion as Liberal leader. I subscribe to the scenario that Dion's efforts at apprenticing in opposition will eventually pay dividends in additional competence and increasingly, in popularity.

That, along with Afghanistan and the environment, does not bode well for future Conservative fortunes.

Good analysis, of the Harpy's failure as a leader and regarding Dion. SES, has no bias and it has been consistently correct.

The CPC's failure to improve their fortunes, all things considered, show that they are but a minority of Canadians in ideology and will never be able to get a majority. Canada could long well be in for a succession of minority governments. The jockeying for majority by calling an election every few months will have to stop, or the party doing doing it, be it Liberal or CPC will suffer from voter fallout/backlash.

Now that the Greens have been taken over by the Liberals, one could add their 6% to the Liberals, or half of it anyway, the other half would go to the NDP.

[Vancouver King]

My hope is for a Conservative minority again, and afterwards hopefully the Liberals will ditch Stephane Dion in favour of, well, anybody else that was in the last leadership race. As well the "scary, scary" tactics probably won't work, which will negate strategic voting. The NDP will still win around 20% [large warchest], and the Greens might be able to break through the 10% barrier, but probably with no seats.

I think the Green Party is more or less a haven for people who are sick of the current political system. I'm not sure how well they will bode in the next election. My prediction, the Conservatives will gain in some parts of Ontario and Quebec, however will not get enough seats to win a majority. The Liberals will lose seats to the Conservatives, and some of their vote will instead move to the Greens or New Democrats. The NDP might pick up some seats, I have a feeling they could pick one or two up in Saskatchewan, and maybe a few in BC.

The SES numbers put the Conservatives squarely in minority territory. Without regional breakdowns we can only guess where "stubborn" Liberal support is concentrated. Ontario surely remains largely Grit, but the Tories might want to offer up a prayer to the political gods that Dion's strength is not now also focused in Quebec.

Without La Belle province on side there is no majority breakthrough only possible unity nightmares on the horizon as the province again makes the difficult adjustment of being isolated from national leadership.

[Michael Bluth]

The SES numbers put the Conservatives squarely in minority territory. Without regional breakdowns we can only guess where "stubborn" Liberal support is concentrated. Ontario surely remains largely Grit, but the Tories might want to offer up a prayer to the political gods that Dion's strength is not now also focused in Quebec.

Without La Belle province on side there is no majority breakthrough only possible unity nightmares on the horizon as the province again makes the difficult adjustment of being isolated from national leadership.

The regional breakdown can be found on the SES site.

The Conservatives are up five points in Ontario from Election day.

The Conservatives are up three point in Quebec from Election day.

Those two results would translate into a pickup of 15 to 20 seats.

The Conservatives are down in the Maritimes and the West.

Without provincial breakdowns it is difficult to say how much those results would hurt them. Probably by 8 to 10 seats.

How well are the Greens doing in BC?

If they are attracting Conservative, NDP and Liberal support then the results could be very similar to 2006.

The one bright spot of this poll for the Liberals is the West. They haven't grown their support anywhere else. Tough to say if a party that has never done well in the west could really expect a breakthrough there. We know Paul Martin talked about appealing to the West. But he never really did it.

Yes, we would probably be looking at another Conservative minority with these poll results. Albeit a much stronger majority. The only other realistic option at this point is a Conservative majority. Can anyone look at these poll results and point to any scenario in which the Liberals could win?

[Figleaf]

I guess Harper could roll the dice and see what happens.

As spring rolls along, the issue of Afghanistan might play a stronger part in what people are thinking.

As a positive the Conservatives are the only party to be growing their support.

I don't know why you'd say that. The Liberals had fallen below 33% and are now on the rise, meanwhile 36% represents a drop from 39% for the tories.

So the trend line is in the right direction.

Yep!

[Figleaf]

Take the champagne off ice, this is a govt in trouble.

No, leave it there.

The trouble will be for the Liberals.

Their leader is still Stephane Dion.

Tories may think that, or want to pretend to think that. But Dion is a scrapper and a smart man. He'll be a tough opponent.

[Vancouver King]

Can anyone look at these poll results and point to any scenario in which the Liberals could win?

If the electorate perceives that Harper has orchestrated an unnecessary election in a roll of the dice for a majority, voters might register their disapproval on election day. It wouldn't be the first time.

SES's Quebec numbers are good news for Tories. Interesting that their gains there came at the expense of the Liberals and not, as per conventional wisdom, at the expense of a disintegrating Bloc.

[M.Dancer]

Can anyone look at these poll results and point to any scenario in which the Liberals could win?

If the electorate perceives that Harper has orchestrated an unnecessary election in a roll of the dice for a majority, voters might register their disapproval on election day. It wouldn't be the first time.

SES's Quebec numbers are good news for Tories. Interesting that their gains there came at the expense of the Liberals and not, as per conventional wisdom, at the expense of a disintegrating Bloc.

Harper ain't about to engineer an election till a majority is a given. That should be three months next friday

[jdobbin]

Harper ain't about to engineer an election till a majority is a given. That should be three months next friday

Summer election?

[Michael Bluth]

If the electorate perceives that Harper has orchestrated an unnecessary election in a roll of the dice for a majority, voters might register their disapproval on election day. It wouldn't be the first time.

SES's Quebec numbers are good news for Tories. Interesting that their gains there came at the expense of the Liberals and not, as per conventional wisdom, at the expense of a disintegrating Bloc.

The *only* example from Canadian political history is the 1990 Ontario General Election.

Peterson had a majority and barely stayed in office for three years. About a year less than the standard four year term.

The average Federal minority Government in Canada has lasted a little over one year and seven months.

At the *absolute earliest* the next Federal election will be after the Conservatives have been in power for a year and four months.

Hmmm, seems like people are really desperate for some sort of anti-Conservative story line.

[Martin Chriton]

I don't know why you'd say that. The Liberals had fallen below 33% and are now on the rise, meanwhile 36% represents a drop from 39% for the tories.

Don't treat poll results as firm numbers. Do an average over the last few polls.

If a poll comes out and says 50% than the next day another one says 60%. It doesn't mean opinion has changed by the whole 10% in a day. It just means both (or just one) poll is on the opposites site of the error margin.

We'll need to see the next few polls before we can make *anything* of these results.

[Vancouver King]

I don't know why you'd say that. The Liberals had fallen below 33% and are now on the rise, meanwhile 36% represents a drop from 39% for the tories.

Don't treat poll results as firm numbers. Do an average over the last few polls.

If a poll comes out and says 50% than the next day another one says 60%. It doesn't mean opinion has changed by the whole 10% in a day. It just means both (or just one) poll is on the opposites site of the error margin.

We'll need to see the next few polls before we can make *anything* of these results.

There are pollsters and there are hacks.

In a remarkable display of bandwagon polling, Allan Gregg - with a straight face - announced that Harper's Tories held an 18% lead over Martin's Liberals with only 10 days left before the Jan. 23rd vote. Met with derision by all quarters save Conservatives and CTV's News Dept., his Strategic Counsel team whittled that ridiculous spread to 10% the night before the election. Their final numbers still missed 1 in every 5 Liberal voters.

Would you seriously want that type of performance averaged with SES's results?

[geoffrey]

You obviously don't understand polling research.

[Figleaf]

I don't know why you'd say that. The Liberals had fallen below 33% and are now on the rise, meanwhile 36% represents a drop from 39% for the tories.

Don't treat poll results as firm numbers. Do an average over the last few polls.

If a poll comes out and says 50% than the next day another one says 60%. It doesn't mean opinion has changed by the whole 10% in a day. It just means both (or just one) poll is on the opposites site of the error margin.

We'll need to see the next few polls before we can make *anything* of these results.

Headline: Tories Attempt to Dismiss Latest Polls

[Michael Bluth]

Headline: Tories Attempt to Dismiss Latest Polls

Headline: Some Irrational Pollsters Create Imaginary Headlines.

[Canuck E Stan]

Headline: Tories Attempt to Dismiss Latest Polls

Dion as a Prime Minister....Ouch!

An exclusive SES Research poll for Sun Media suggests only 16% of Canadian voters think the newly crowned Liberal leader would make the best prime minister, compared to 42% for Stephen Harper.

Dion’s dismal ratings as a potential PM are in league with those of John Turner, Stockwell Day and other great political leadership disasters of our time.

Even 26% of Liberal voters say they think Harper would make a better prime minister than Dion.

Across the country, Dion’s numbers just go from bad to worse, and nowhere more so than in his home Quebec.

As for all the hoopla about Dion’s being the candidate who would wow young, progressive voters to the Liberal cause, the SES poll found those between the ages of 18-29 actually favour Harper as PM by a margin of more than two to one.

Ditto in every single age group. And here’s a surprise turnaround — even women now think Harper is a better prime minister than Dion would be.

Finally, the SES Research survey offers a reality check for those Liberals who believe their party’s salvation is to the left, scooping up votes from the NDP and the Green Party.

Among New Democrats surveyed, 19% chose Harper as the most able PM, compared to only 10% for Dion.

Among Green Party supporters — wait for it — slightly more chose Harper as best PM over their own new leader, Elizabeth May.

Hard to dismiss these latest polls

[Canadian Blue]

I have to admit, the crop of leaders out there really ain't the greatest.

[Martin Chriton]

I don't know why you'd say that. The Liberals had fallen below 33% and are now on the rise, meanwhile 36% represents a drop from 39% for the tories.

Don't treat poll results as firm numbers. Do an average over the last few polls.

If a poll comes out and says 50% than the next day another one says 60%. It doesn't mean opinion has changed by the whole 10% in a day. It just means both (or just one) poll is on the opposites site of the error margin.

We'll need to see the next few polls before we can make *anything* of these results.

Headline: Tories Attempt to Dismiss Latest Polls

Really where? What are these polls that Tories are disputing?