Canadian Political Polls

Saturn · March 5, 2007

It's far too early to say anything. It would make more sense to talk about the polls after the budget. I think those poll numbers will move drastically once everyone is drooling over his/her $100 tax cut.

I still maintain the the NDP voters will be the key to the election outcome. If it looks like Harper has a chance to win, that NDP vote will go down to near nothing. A couple of articles in the media about some sort of cooperation between Harper and Layton, and Layton will be sent packing. It's one thing to say you'd vote NDP, it's another thing entirely to actually do it given that Harper could get majority.

Argus · March 5, 2007

It's darn close, and given the relative quality of their leaders, I have little doubt as to what would happen in a campaign environment. I can just picture the English-language debates.

It's not close. It is exactly where it was at the time of the election.

As far as the election debates go, Harper has certainly not shown himself to be a wunderkind. The debates have been less and less influential in Canada. And this time, it is possible we'll see a new dynamic with the Green leader.

Let's get real here. The Liberals ran a putrid campaign, with sponsorgate wrapped around their throats and Mr. Dithers at the helm. That was supposed to be their low point this century. The only thing they had going for them was that Harper was "scary-scary!". Well, people have had more than a year with Harper as PM and the sky has not fallen. And if you think Monsieur Dion is going to do anything in the English language debate but look like a sputtering, anguished idiot you clearly haven't been listening to him speak. As for the Greens, their environmental message will take votes from the NDP and Liberals, but probably won't hurt the Tories. And they will not participate because the debate is too unwieldy as it is with five leaders. There don't need six. Maybe if they pulled the BQ out of the English debate - which they should - and the NDP out of the French debate , you'd have room for the Greens. Otherwise no.

jdobbin · March 5, 2007

Let's get real here. The Liberals ran a putrid campaign, with sponsorgate wrapped around their throats and Mr. Dithers at the helm. That was supposed to be their low point this century. The only thing they had going for them was that Harper was "scary-scary!". Well, people have had more than a year with Harper as PM and the sky has not fallen. And if you think Monsieur Dion is going to do anything in the English language debate but look like a sputtering, anguished idiot you clearly haven't been listening to him speak. As for the Greens, their environmental message will take votes from the NDP and Liberals, but probably won't hurt the Tories. And they will not participate because the debate is too unwieldy as it is with five leaders. There don't need six. Maybe if they pulled the BQ out of the English debate - which they should - and the NDP out of the French debate , you'd have room for the Greens. Otherwise no.

The Liberals did run a terrible campaign and the Tories still weren't able to deliver a majority even with the gift of an RCMP investigation thrown into the mix.

They still haven't been able to get into majority territory even after a year.

As far as your desire to toss out national party leaders who intend to run a full slate of candidates, that decision is in the hands of Harper. He may see fit not to have a debate at all.

jbg · March 5, 2007

The Liberals did run a terrible campaign and the Tories still weren't able to deliver a majority even with the gift of an RCMP investigation thrown into the mix.
They still haven't been able to get into majority territory even after a year.

As far as your desire to toss out national party leaders who intend to run a full slate of candidates, that decision is in the hands of Harper. He may see fit not to have a debate at all.

The brand-new status of the CPC, a party that never existed before the 2004 election, plus the fact that this was the first time the party merited the term "conservative" have to be weighed here as well.

jdobbin · March 5, 2007

The brand-new status of the CPC, a party that never existed before the 2004 election, plus the fact that this was the first time the party merited the term "conservative" have to be weighed here as well.

And they probably wouldn't even have won then except for the fact of the RCMP investigation that dropped the Liberals 10 points overnight.

Saturn · March 5, 2007

The brand-new status of the CPC, a party that never existed before the 2004 election, plus the fact that this was the first time the party merited the term "conservative" have to be weighed here as well.

And they probably wouldn't even have won then except for the fact of the RCMP investigation that dropped the Liberals 10 points overnight.

I wonder what the RCMP has planned for the Liberals this time around. Surround Dion's home and take him away in handcuffs (Glen Clark style) a week before the election?

jbg · March 5, 2007

And they probably wouldn't even have won then except for the fact of the RCMP investigation that dropped the Liberals 10 points overnight.

Entrenched governments have a way of getting sloppy and corrupt. Happened in my country, happened in yours, happened in Britain with the Christine Keever (sp) scandal.

madmax · March 5, 2007

The brand-new status of the CPC, a party that never existed before the 2004 election, plus the fact that this was the first time the party merited the term "conservative" have to be weighed here as well.

I don't think this factored into the 2006 performance of the CPC. The election was the Liberals to lose and they should have collapsed and they didn't.

madmax · March 5, 2007

I still maintain the the NDP voters will be the key to the election outcome.

If that is the belief of Liberal Strategists, then they will not be in power, no matter how Scarey a Harper Majority will appear.

The Liberals will actually have to have a platform of their own and earn the vote.

The Liberals are going to be had for breakfast if that is the direction they pursue.

madmax · March 5, 2007

Stephen Harper is metaphorically blowing a load over all of our faces and we are just licking it up. I can understand why some girls in Calgary my enjoy this treatment but what is wrong with the rest of us?!

Deleted

Canadian Blue · March 5, 2007

The whole country can't just run a $8 billion/yr pre-oil deficit like Calgary is. They will have a ghost town in two generations because they are blowing their capital on demographically wrong (schools for an aging population) investments rather than being alternative energy leaders like the Fraser Valley is. At least they could save more than the paltry fund they have saved up now; Norway has saved 4-6X more starting with an inferior resource base. Alberta used to be Liberal before turning Republican

Yeah, back in 1921. Then they turned to the UFA, then Social Credit, and now Progressive Conservative.

Obviously, with such a shallow minded response as has been seen before, and a complete and utter disregard of history it show's your intelligence on the matter.

As well I believe that majority of Albertan's are monarchists, not republicans.

jbg · March 5, 2007

Yeah, back in 1921. Then they turned to the UFA, then Social Credit, and now Progressive Conservative.
Obviously, with such a shallow minded response as has been seen before, and a complete and utter disregard of history it show's your intelligence on the matter.

As well I believe that majority of Albertan's are monarchists, not republicans.

Don't feed the troll.

Canadian Blue · March 5, 2007

Baylee, one question, why in the hell do you come on here to make progressives, liberals, and New Democrats, all look like irrational bigots who are incapable of bringing about any debate except with slander which would make Franco and Stalin proud???

geoffrey · March 6, 2007

As well I believe that majority of Albertan's are monarchists, not republicans.

I'm a republican.

jdobbin · March 9, 2007

http://www.cjob.com/news/index.aspx?dir=na..../n0308106A.xml

Tories ahead 6% in Decima poll.

The Decima survey, provided to The Canadian Press, suggests the trend is the reason for the Conservatives' six-percentage-point lead nationally over the Liberals - 35 to 29.
There is one silver lining for the Liberals, who are far ahead of the Tories in Quebec and in a virtual tie with the Bloc Quebecois after having trailed the sovereigntist party for three years.

The poll conducted last weekend placed the NDP at 15 per cent nationally, the Green party at 11, and the Bloc Quebecois at seven.

Still in minority territory and leveling off according to the pollster.

Catchme · March 9, 2007

http://www.cjob.com/news/index.aspx?dir=na..../n0308106A.xml
Tories ahead 6% in Decima poll.

The Decima survey, provided to The Canadian Press, suggests the trend is the reason for the Conservatives' six-percentage-point lead nationally over the Liberals - 35 to 29.
There is one silver lining for the Liberals, who are far ahead of the Tories in Quebec and in a virtual tie with the Bloc Quebecois after having trailed the sovereigntist party for three years.

The poll conducted last weekend placed the NDP at 15 per cent nationally, the Green party at 11, and the Bloc Quebecois at seven.

Still in minority territory and leveling off according to the pollster.

Actually, they are not levelling off, that wasn't even a good piece of spin by Canadian Press, the CPC are now actually below their election standings and have dropped from the last Decima Poll.

The Liberals are far ahead of the CPC in PQ the poll stated. This suggests that the CPC numbers are remaining solid, or increasing, in their not going anywhere AB seats and dropping everywhere else, as Canadian Press did not give regional breakdowns, nor margin of error.

Now if you compare the last Decima Poll with this one,

The Liberals have gained 2%

The NDP have gained 2%

The CPC are down 1%

and the Greens are down 2%

jbg · March 9, 2007

The Liberals are far ahead of the CPC in PQ the poll stated. This suggests that the CPC numbers are remaining solid, or increasing, in their not going anywhere AB seats and dropping everywhere else, as Canadian Press did not give regional breakdowns, nor margin of error.

For Quebec, a riding by riding analysis is necessary. Having 70% of the Montreal vote would give you those numbers,l but only Montreal ridings.

jdobbin · March 9, 2007

For Quebec, a riding by riding analysis is necessary. Having 70% of the Montreal vote would give you those numbers,l but only Montreal ridings.

Ditto for the rest of Canada. Sometimes the Conservative support is skewed because of a huge support in Alberta.

Canadian Blue · March 9, 2007

But aren't the tories ahead in the battleground of Ontario, and gaining votes in urban areas and among women voters, atleast that's what I read in another article.

Michael Bluth · March 9, 2007

But aren't the tories ahead in the battleground of Ontario, and gaining votes in urban areas and among women voters, atleast that's what I read in another article.

Yes, that is one key to that poll.

Another is that magical 40% mark for winning a majority probably won't be the threshold if the Greens stay a strong as they are and their support is national rather than regionally centered.

jdobbin · March 9, 2007

But aren't the tories ahead in the battleground of Ontario, and gaining votes in urban areas and among women voters, atleast that's what I read in another article.

The Tories are ahead in Ontario but as almost every pollster has mentioned, a bigger sample of that province is needed to see what is going on.

The Tories are behind one point in all urban areas. One black mark is Quebec for the Conservatives.

Michael Bluth · March 9, 2007

The Tories are ahead in Ontario but as almost every pollster has mentioned, a bigger sample of that province is needed to see what is going on.
The Tories are behind one point in all urban areas. One black mark is Quebec for the Conservatives.

Really?

What were the sample sizes involved? I read the latest Decima poll and never saw anything mentioned.

Call Quebec a blackmark, but the Conservatives would probably hold the seats they have if an election were held today.

jdobbin · March 9, 2007

Really?
What were the sample sizes involved? I read the latest Decima poll and never saw anything mentioned.

Call Quebec a blackmark, but the Conservatives would probably hold the seats they have if an election were held today.

That's possible. Once again the samples need to be bigger but we won't see a large federal poll with the Quebec election on. However, the overall vote is trending downwards in Quebec as the "rolling polls" show.

The rolling poll is what the pollsters use when they don't take a large sample all at once. It worked very well for SES in the last election.

Vancouver King · March 10, 2007

Tories should delay performing cartwheels. A 35-29 margin bears an uncanny resemblance to the results of the last election - 36-30. Additionally, this latest sounding says Consevatives have lost fully one-third of their Quebec support. Goodbye Quebec City seats.

All this is thin gruel in the context of a government now finished with an easy first year agenda and on the heels of a recent billion a week spending binge.

We shall see if a budget loaded with goodies offsets the voters distaste for an unwanted election.

Michael Bluth · March 10, 2007

That's possible. Once again the samples need to be bigger but we won't see a large federal poll with the Quebec election on. However, the overall vote is trending downwards in Quebec as the "rolling polls" show.
The rolling poll is what the pollsters use when they don't take a large sample all at once. It worked very well for SES in the last election.

What are the sample sizes?

Which polls?

If you could point out what you are referring it would make it a lot easier to judge what you are saying fairly.