Liberal Leadership Race

[jdobbin]

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/14082006/6/n-ca...s-slightly.html

Bevilacqua has dropped out and supports Rae. It is revealed that Rae is the best fundraiser in the party as well.

[geoffrey]

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/14082006/6/n-ca...s-slightly.html

Bevilacqua has dropped out and supports Rae. It is revealed that Rae is the best fundraiser in the party as well.

Rae wins, many years of Conservative rule. That's how it works.

Anyone want to take a Rae day tomorrow??

I've never comprehended why a failed politican would attempt to bring down his party? Oh wait, it's not his party!!

I'll pass on a term of socialism thanks. I like my freedom.

[jdobbin]

Rae wins, many years of Conservative rule. That's how it works.

Anyone want to take a Rae day tomorrow??

I've never comprehended why a failed politican would attempt to bring down his party? Oh wait, it's not his party!!

I'll pass on a term of socialism thanks. I like my freedom.

He probably won't win. But it is a way for the Liberals to counter the attack from left.

[watching&waiting]

Most people who watch and analyse politics know there are not that many differences between the parties. But the ones there are seem to be fundamental differences, and that is why I just can not see Rae as ever becoming the leader of the Liberals. I figured he only threw in his name for it, so he could garner some small support that he would then use to make deals with others how may well stand a better chance. Or in other words, because in the end it will benefit him financially later. I would say this of most of the candidates, as there just does not seem to be anyone running that clearly has a lead in this so far. It is the political equivalent of the game hot potatoe.

Maybe as things draw closer to the convention, maybe we will see some one stepping forward that would be capable of turning the party around in the next decade or so, but I just can not think of anyone who would fit the bill for that job.

Rae will probably stay as a party fund raiser, and backroom things, but he will never garner trust on the scale needed to pull this off. I would agree that if Rae ever was the leader, we would see vast CPC majority governments for quite a while

[jdobbin]

Most people who watch and analyse politics know there are not that many differences between the parties. But the ones there are seem to be fundamental differences, and that is why I just can not see Rae as ever becoming the leader of the Liberals. I figured he only threw in his name for it, so he could garner some small support that he would then use to make deals with others how may well stand a better chance. Or in other words, because in the end it will benefit him financially later. I would say this of most of the candidates, as there just does not seem to be anyone running that clearly has a lead in this so far. It is the political equivalent of the game hot potatoe.

Maybe as things draw closer to the convention, maybe we will see some one stepping forward that would be capable of turning the party around in the next decade or so, but I just can not think of anyone who would fit the bill for that job.

Rae will probably stay as a party fund raiser, and backroom things, but he will never garner trust on the scale needed to pull this off. I would agree that if Rae ever was the leader, we would see vast CPC majority governments for quite a while

I see him running for an MP after this. I don't see him spending times in the backrooms.

[gc1765]

I'm a bit surprised that Bevilacqua put his support behind Rae. I thought Bevilacqua was supposed to be more on the right of the party, whereas Rae is very much to the left. I wouldn't want Rae as leader either, because I'd hate to see more deficits...but I suppose I could be naive enough to believe he might have changed?

[jdobbin]

I'm a bit surprised that Bevilacqua put his support behind Rae. I thought Bevilacqua was supposed to be more on the right of the party, whereas Rae is very much to the left. I wouldn't want Rae as leader either, because I'd hate to see more deficits...but I suppose I could be naive enough to believe he might have changed?

I think that is what the fear is on Rae. No one knows what sort of things he would do with spending.

Bevilacqua has had a good relationship with Rae over the years. Other than that, I don't know the reasons why he would throw support behind him.

[jbg]

I like Harper, so I'd love Rae to win Leadership.

[jdobbin]

I like Harper, so I'd love Rae to win Leadership.

It is a very unlikely prospect.

I am kind of interested in Martha Hall Findlay. I'm still open to Kennedy and Ignatieff. I'm watching Dion.

Given the feeling of Canadians on Afghanistan, it might be hard for Harper to win a majority, especially in Quebec.

[Ricki Bobbi]

You have to wonder about how important Afghanistan will be in a lot of people's voting decisions. Anybody who is going to make their choice on that issue isn't likely to be a swing/moderate decision maker. i.e. where a CPC vote is a realistic possibility.

My guess is Harper will pick up much more support in Montreal's Jewish community with his handling of the most recent Mid-East crisis than he'll lose over Aghanistan.

The Conservatives will still have the upperhand for the Federalist vote in Quebec *unless* the Liberals pick Stephane Dion....

It is a very unlikely prospect.

I am kind of interested in Martha Hall Findlay. I'm still open to Kennedy and Ignatieff. I'm watching Dion.

Given the feeling of Canadians on Afghanistan, it might be hard for Harper to win a majority, especially in Quebec.

[jdobbin]

You have to wonder about how important Afghanistan will be in a lot of people's voting decisions. Anybody who is going to make their choice on that issue isn't likely to be a swing/moderate decision maker. i.e. where a CPC vote is a realistic possibility.

My guess is Harper will pick up much more support in Montreal's Jewish community with his handling of the most recent Mid-East crisis than he'll lose over Aghanistan.

The Conservatives will still have the upperhand for the Federalist vote in Quebec *unless* the Liberals pick Stephane Dion....

Don't underestimate Afghanistan.

Think of what Iraq is doing to American politics right now.

[jbg]

My guess is Harper will pick up much more support in Montreal's Jewish community with his handling of the most recent Mid-East crisis than he'll lose over Aghanistan.

Are there any ridings he could pick up that way though?

[Ricki Bobbi]

It would require, and be part of, a massive shift of the Federalist vote to the Conservatives from the Liberals. Two seats that would go Conservative before going Bloq are Mount Royal and Westmoutn - Ville Marie.

Not likely, but how likely is a Conservative majority?

Are there any ridings he could pick up that way though?

[Big Blue Machine]

I'm surprised that more people haven't dropped out of the race.

[jbg]

I'm surprised that more people haven't dropped out of the race.

Maybe we'll be lucky enough that each of the candidates will form their own parties, taking a leaf from Reform in 1987 and the Bloc in 1991-2.

[Ricki Bobbi]

While that would be a dream for the other parties the Liberals are far too smart for that. Besides the PCs broke up because the hard right had no where else to go so they formed the Reform.

A disgruntled Liberal can move left or right to a major party if they no longer feel comfortable with Canada's natural greedy party...

[geoffrey]

Not necessarily.

There are two distinct elements in the Liberal party. The pro-business, cut spending, let people do their thing, types. And the European style let's create a nanny state where no one works and we all smoke pot element.

The later is unfortunately been controlling things, we saw that with Martin's dramatic switch from competent financial authority to completely ridiculous uncontrolled socialist. He's too smart and successful of a businessman to actually believe in his initives.

I could see a split, maybe not likely, but it's possible. The Liberals used to be the party of businessmen, that's no longer. They need that back to win a majority, and business will never support a Rae type in charge.

[jdobbin]

I think people are reading too much of things. I can remember what a yawner the Conservative party leadership campaign was. The Liberal one is large and cumbersome but at some point, there will be a leader and the party will start to take shape for the next election.

There won't be an election before the next Liberal leader is decided because the Liberals aren't going to vote againsy a lumber deal that provinces support.

[geoffrey]

I think people are reading too much of things. I can remember what a yawner the Conservative party leadership campaign was. The Liberal one is large and cumbersome but at some point, there will be a leader and the party will start to take shape for the next election.

There won't be an election before the next Liberal leader is decided because the Liberals aren't going to vote againsy a lumber deal that provinces support.

It doesn't look good to complain constantly about a piece of legislation and then vote for it. Takes it right off the table as an election issue.

[jdobbin]

It doesn't look good to complain constantly about a piece of legislation and then vote for it.

Really? It seems the complaints actually got some changes made this week that make the deal more acceptable. If the Liberals had been just nodding their heads at the first draft of this, they wouldn't have been doing their mandated job of opposition.

[geoffrey]

It doesn't look good to complain constantly about a piece of legislation and then vote for it.

Really? It seems the complaints actually got some changes made this week that make the deal more acceptable. If the Liberals had been just nodding their heads at the first draft of this, they wouldn't have been doing their mandated job of opposition.

The Liberals weren't behind the changes, industry was. And the Liberals are actually silent on the issue right now as well. Some opposition.

[jdobbin]

The Liberals weren't behind the changes, industry was. And the Liberals are actually silent on the issue right now as well. Some opposition.

That's not what the newspapers are saying. They said all three parties and the provinces were against the deal until some changes were made. The NDP are still against the deal, the BQ support it and the Liberals are discussing it at their caucus meeting.

[Ricki Bobbi]

Why would members of the first element you mention be uncomfortable in the Conservative Party? The Conservatives have a lot of libertarians, i.e. non-social conservatives.

Why would members of the second element be uncomfortable in the NDP?

Doesn't seem like there would be much to gain from either element forming their own party when an established alternative exists.

Not necessarily.

There are two distinct elements in the Liberal party. The pro-business, cut spending, let people do their thing, types. And the European style let's create a nanny state where no one works and we all smoke pot element.

[jdobbin]

Bennett drops out of Liberal race, supports Rae.

Not unexpected at this point.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/15092006/2/nati...ts-bob-rae.html

[BubberMiley]

I've been saying Harper could never beat Dryden since before the last election. Apparently the electoral public agrees with me: http://www.gandalfgroup.ca/downloads/Liber...lics_Choice.pdf

Now the Liberal Party just needs to get onside.