Exit Polls -2024 Style

[August1991]

We are getting data on how many ballots have been submitted by hand, in person (or received by mail) according to registration.

Is there any data on choice after exit? Post hand-in, post mail-in?

Aside from registration, how have these people voted?

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Side Note: As a Canadian, this American "registration" is truly weird.

[robosmith]

2 minutes ago, August1991 said:

We are getting data on how many ballots have been submitted by hand, in person (or received by mail) according to registration.

Is there any data on choice after exit? Post hand-in, post mail-in?

Aside from registration, how have these people voted?

=====

Side Note: As a Canadian, this American "registration" is truly weird.

Exit polls are generally only done at in person polling sites on election day.

Don't know how many are hanging out there for extended early voting.

[August1991]

8 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Exit polls are generally only done at in person polling sites on election day.

Don't know how many are hanging out there for extended early voting.

Robosmith - you're an AI whatever.

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Knock, knock.

[August1991]

Robosmith,

Knock, knock. C'est qui?

[WestCanMan]

I think the only "solid" data that they have right now, i.e. data that comes from people getting off their arses to actually do something, is from the voter registration numbers for each party, and the number of votes already cast, sorted by registered voter status. 

Usually more people register to vote as Dems than Republicans, and more Demi-cultists vote early, but this year there are more GOPers registered in some states.

There are some sites where you can see how many registered voters have already voted in certain states. 

From CNN:

Quote

Registration data by party is not available for the battleground states of Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin.

This chart shows the percentage of early voters who were either registered as GOP, Demi, or unregistered:

In all of these states, the number of early Dem voters is down from 2020, and the # of GOP early voters went up. 

Re: Pennsylvania... Biden only won Penn by 1.17% in 2020, so the huge gap between early voters didn't translate into that big of a win at the end. 

 

There's an interesting quote from that CNN page, just below the chart:

• The overall downtick in interest in early voting so far shouldn’t be surprising.

They're talking as if "early voting" is down, but it's only down for the Dems. It's up for the GOP. At least according to what's shown on that chart, that is. It's possible that the total number of early voters was higher last time, but it doesn't say that anywhere on that page.

Quote

more than 34.3 million Americans have already cast their ballots in the November election, either by mail or through early in-person voting,

Last time there were theoretically about 160M votes cast in total... I don't know how many were 'early' last time though. 

Edited October 26, 2024 by WestCanMan