Where comes this talk of Tory Majorities?

[Argus]

Can anyone suggest how, realistically, the tories are likely to get a majority?

By all accounts they might pick up a handfu of seats in Quebec, but the Liberals will hang on to Montreal. In Ontario, the Liberals will continue to hold onto all those Toronto seats. They're not exactly falling apart in the East either.

Now the Election Prediction Project current lists seats they are reasonably sure of as follows.

Liberal Party/ Party libéral 77

Conservatives/Conservateurs 97

N.D.P./N.P.D. 17

Bloc Québécois 51

X Other/Autres 0

Too Close 66

Total 308

Since 155 (realistically 156) seats are needed to win, the Tories would need to pick up virtually every seat which is under doubt.

THIS seems like a more likely outcome, and while I can see the Tories picking up a few extra seats from Ontario and Atlantic Canada, I don't see how they pick up another two dozen seats. So why is the "M" word on the lips of every reporter and in every newspaper?

[Riverwind]

THIS seems like a more likely outcome, and while I can see the Tories picking up a few extra seats from Ontario and Atlantic Canada, I don't see how they pick up another two dozen seats. So why is the "M" word on the lips of every reporter and in every newspaper?

Reporters are herd animals.

[shoop]

The EPP predictions are a little off on this point. The Liberals are not guaranteed 77 seats, with another 66 ridings too close to call, while they are sitting at high 20s support level.

They appear to not really care too much about applying polling figures until the dying days of the campaign.

[cybercoma]

Can anyone suggest how, realistically, the tories are likely to get a majority?

By all accounts they might pick up a handfu of seats in Quebec, but the Liberals will hang on to Montreal. In Ontario, the Liberals will continue to hold onto all those Toronto seats. They're not exactly falling apart in the East either.

Now the Election Prediction Project current lists seats they are reasonably sure of as follows.

Liberal Party/ Party libéral 77

Conservatives/Conservateurs 97

N.D.P./N.P.D. 17

Bloc Québécois 51

X Other/Autres 0

Too Close 66

Total 308

Since 155 (realistically 156) seats are needed to win, the Tories would need to pick up virtually every seat which is under doubt.

THIS seems like a more likely outcome, and while I can see the Tories picking up a few extra seats from Ontario and Atlantic Canada, I don't see how they pick up another two dozen seats. So why is the "M" word on the lips of every reporter and in every newspaper?

I agree with the numbers you posted more than the numbers I've been seeing in the papers lately.

Also the frantic letters from readers in the Windsor Star are turning my stomach. The usual nonsense about the Conservatives cancelling all social services and making everyone fend for themselves. Meanwhile, when I write an insightful, factual conservative supporting letter...it gets filed under G.

Anyway, a slight conservative minority is more than likely....which will lead to them not being able to do anything in office because the Liberals/NDP will be too busy holding their caucus meetings in the same room.

[August1991]

Can anyone suggest how, realistically, the tories are likely to get a majority?

By all accounts they might pick up a handfu of seats in Quebec, but the Liberals will hang on to Montreal. In Ontario, the Liberals will continue to hold onto all those Toronto seats. They're not exactly falling apart in the East either.

Argus, The Toronto Star is spreading rumours by inventing quotes like the following:

One former ministerial aide, who has worked closely with the Martin inner circle, compared the Liberals' current situation to a doomed Russian submarine. "I feel like I am on the Kursk and the oxygen is getting perilously low," the ex-aide said.

----

The linked prediction to democraticSpace strikes me as very realistic. A Tory minority able to stay in power with the support of any one of the other parties, and some breathing room as the Liberals go through a leadership campaign/housecleaning (renovation?).

But it would only take a shift of about 5 seats in the Atlantic, Quebec, Ontario and BC (all possible) for the Tories to have a bare majority.

Quebec is very hard to call now and 10 Tory seats is not out of the question. Right-wing sovereignists are voting Tory and it appears that federalists are switching to the Tories (rather than split the vote) to block the Bloc.

The problem with number-crunching web sites like democraticSpace and Elections Predictions is that they are always about a week or more behind. That's fine when nothing is changing but poor when the situation is volatile, as we are witnessing now. Human judgment works best now.

Argus, I understand that you suspect the Liberals of spreading the M rumours to scare people back to voting Liberal. In fact, one of the most surprising poll results I have seen is that a majority of Canadians expect a Conservative majority and in all regions (excepting in Ontario where it's a tie), Candians are comfortable with that.

CTV

[fellowtraveller]

The linked prediction to democraticSpace strikes me as very realistic.

I agree for the most part with the demSpace numbers, but there will be some variations. I do not think that the Cons will get 6 seats in Quebec, 2 or 3 is more likely, and they may get a few extra in Atlantic Canada. The two will be a wash. I don't think the NDP will get 33 total either, they will lose a couple in Ontario to the Liberals.

Ultimately, the Cons will be well short of a majority.

The trumpeting of the M word is an old Liberal stunt, usually it works - but not this time. It must take them aback that few of the tried and true tricks are working -this time.

[tml12]

Can anyone suggest how, realistically, the tories are likely to get a majority?

By all accounts they might pick up a handfu of seats in Quebec, but the Liberals will hang on to Montreal. In Ontario, the Liberals will continue to hold onto all those Toronto seats. They're not exactly falling apart in the East either.

Now the Election Prediction Project current lists seats they are reasonably sure of as follows.

Liberal Party/ Party libéral 77

Conservatives/Conservateurs 97

N.D.P./N.P.D. 17

Bloc Québécois 51

X Other/Autres 0

Too Close 66

Total 308

Since 155 (realistically 156) seats are needed to win, the Tories would need to pick up virtually every seat which is under doubt.

THIS seems like a more likely outcome, and while I can see the Tories picking up a few extra seats from Ontario and Atlantic Canada, I don't see how they pick up another two dozen seats. So why is the "M" word on the lips of every reporter and in every newspaper?

The cover of the Montreal Gazette had majority written all over it this morning.

[shoop]

Uhhh, no it didn't.

The headline was.

"Tories two ridings short of a majority: survey"

The cover of the Montreal Gazette had majority written all over it this morning.

Regardless, the Conservatvies are looking very strong now. People seem to be looking forward (or resigned) to a Conservative government. The last week of the campaign will decide if it is a majority or a minority.

I found the democraticspace site a little confusing.

If you surf around you can find conflicting information.

[BubberMiley]

I agree with Argus that a CPC is a very scary prospect indeed.

[Hicksey]

I agree with Argus that a CPC is a very scary prospect indeed.

I find the NDP platform as scary as you find Harper's.

The last thing this country needs is another social program. We're up to our eyebrows in them now.

Harper doesn't even want to cut them, just the rate at which they grow.

The NDP platform is the Nanny State.

Before long I'll be able to get a federally funded butt wiper to follow me around.

[BubberMiley]

Before long I'll be able to get a federally funded butt wiper to follow me around.

I guess that might be helpful if the need is there.

[tml12]

Uhhh, no it didn't.

The headline was.

"Tories two ridings short of a majority: survey"

The cover of the Montreal Gazette had majority written all over it this morning.

Regardless, the Conservatvies are looking very strong now. People seem to be looking forward (or resigned) to a Conservative government. The last week of the campaign will decide if it is a majority or a minority.

I found the democraticspace site a little confusing.

If you surf around you can find conflicting information.

I have checked...you are correct Shoop.

However, coming out of bed at 7AM in the morning and looking at that headline it seemed like that is what they were inferring...

[BubberMiley]

The talk of a CPC majority came directly from Harper today. To paraphrase, he said, yes, we are right-wing wackos that don't represent mainstream Canadian views but, fortunately, the Liberal senate is there to keep us in check.

I love the fact that Harper is honest. Unlike the rest of his party, he's never said he has changed his neocon positions since gaining the CPC leadership. At least he's no hypocrite.

[Wilber]

Before long I'll be able to get a federally funded butt wiper to follow me around.

I guess that might be helpful if the need is there.

What a legacy. A nation that can't wipe its own ass. The people who founded this country would turn in their graves.

[BubberMiley]

But seriously, Canada's social programs have contributed to its prosperity far more than it has taken away. The overall effect of extreme poverty on a society is very negative. No one wants to invest and live in a community filled with disease and misery. It's only by having governments (relatively) free of corruption and a strong social safety net that Canada has been able to leave South America in the dust (which 100 years ago was an economic powerhouse by comparison). Think about what differentiates us from them. We didn't become this prosperous because of our good looks.

[shoop]

To paraphrase?

Come on. A fairer paraphrasing might be:

"Even if you are inclined to buy into the Liberal scary-scary-scary taunts we won't have the power to rob the purse ala the Liberals due to the Liberal-dominated Senate, the Liberal-dominated upper echelons of the civil service and the Liberal-dominated supreme court."

Close though...

The talk of a CPC majority came directly from Harper today. To paraphrase, he said, yes, we are right-wing wackos that don't represent mainstream Canadian views but, fortunately, the Liberal senate is there to keep us in check.

[cybercoma]

But seriously, Canada's social programs have contributed to its prosperity far more than it has taken away. The overall effect of extreme poverty on a society is very negative. No one wants to invest and live in a community filled with disease and misery. It's only by having governments (relatively) free of corruption and a strong social safety net that Canada has been able to leave South America in the dust (which 100 years ago was an economic powerhouse by comparison). Think about what differentiates us from them. We didn't become this prosperous because of our good looks.

Do you think our social programs and prosperity has increased in the last 12 years?

[Harare]

Can anyone suggest how, realistically, the tories are likely to get a majority?

By all accounts they might pick up a handfu of seats in Quebec, but the Liberals will hang on to Montreal. In Ontario, the Liberals will continue to hold onto all those Toronto seats. They're not exactly falling apart in the East either.

Now the Election Prediction Project current lists seats they are reasonably sure of as follows.

Liberal Party/ Party libéral 77

Conservatives/Conservateurs 97

N.D.P./N.P.D. 17

Bloc Québécois 51

X Other/Autres 0

Too Close 66

Total 308

Since 155 (realistically 156) seats are needed to win, the Tories would need to pick up virtually every seat which is under doubt.

THIS seems like a more likely outcome, and while I can see the Tories picking up a few extra seats from Ontario and Atlantic Canada, I don't see how they pick up another two dozen seats. So why is the "M" word on the lips of every reporter and in every newspaper?

Argus, here are the last couple of EPP numbers and you will note that the so called "safe seat" numbers can and do change.

http://www.electionprediction.org/2005_fed/index.html

National projection Dec 27 Jan 13 Jan 17

Liberals 85 81 77

Conserve 73 91 97

N.D.P..... 14 15 17

The Bloc 51 51 51

Too close 85 70 66

Total 308 seats

[Hicksey]

But seriously, Canada's social programs have contributed to its prosperity far more than it has taken away. The overall effect of extreme poverty on a society is very negative. No one wants to invest and live in a community filled with disease and misery. It's only by having governments (relatively) free of corruption and a strong social safety net that Canada has been able to leave South America in the dust (which 100 years ago was an economic powerhouse by comparison). Think about what differentiates us from them. We didn't become this prosperous because of our good looks.

Do you think our social programs and prosperity has increased in the last 12 years?

Honestly, it's a two part answer.

First, the number of social programs has increased by one-- the federal child care program. And the only reason for it coming to fruition was that Martin realized he was going to have to buy a vote or ten. If Martin had gotten a majority last time around I seriously doubt we would have seen this one. The promise would have followed its natural progression into the next Red Book. But even then, the program completely alienates everyone that doesn't work days and everyone below $25,000 per year, which essentially is everyone because very few 9-5 jobs pay less than $25,000 per year.

And I haven't gotten ahead in the last 12 years because amidst all the Liberals budget surpluses, my taxes, hydro, water, natural gas and gasoline costs have been going up nearly three times as fast as my income. I've upgraded to high efficiency appliances, florencent lighting, gotten a more fuel efficient minivan in the last 12 years and still my bills are higher 10-20% year over year--and I am using less resources than before! The Liberals are calling the success of the business sector, overall success for the country. That's not the case. From talking to people all over the country in places like this and being lucky enough to talk to people all over in my job as a truck driver the sense I am getting is that most people are in the same boat as I, floating down the creek without a paddle. We're being taxed like never before at the provincial and municipal levels because the federal Liberals looted their coffers. The Liberals robbed from Peter to pay Paul (love the pun, it is intended) instead of solving their problems they merely took the money to buy themselves out of their problems from lower levels of government.

It's been years since the Liberal party has done any real good in this country.

[Hicksey]

But seriously, Canada's social programs have contributed to its prosperity far more than it has taken away. The overall effect of extreme poverty on a society is very negative. No one wants to invest and live in a community filled with disease and misery. It's only by having governments (relatively) free of corruption and a strong social safety net that Canada has been able to leave South America in the dust (which 100 years ago was an economic powerhouse by comparison). Think about what differentiates us from them. We didn't become this prosperous because of our good looks.

Do you think our social programs and prosperity has increased in the last 12 years?

Honestly, it's a two part answer.

First, the number of social programs has increased by one-- the federal child care program. And the only reason for it coming to fruition was that Martin realized he was going to have to buy a vote or ten. If Martin had gotten a majority last time around I seriously doubt we would have seen this one. The promise would have followed its natural progression into the next Red Book. But even then, the program completely alienates everyone that doesn't work days and everyone below $25,000 per year, which essentially is everyone because very few 9-5 jobs pay less than $25,000 per year.

And I haven't gotten ahead in the last 12 years because amidst all the Liberals budget surpluses, my taxes, hydro, water, natural gas and gasoline costs have been going up nearly three times as fast as my income. I've upgraded to high efficiency appliances, florencent lighting, gotten a more fuel efficient minivan in the last 12 years and still my bills are higher 10-20% year over year--and I am using less resources than before! The Liberals are calling the success of the business sector, overall success for the country. That's not the case. From talking to people all over the country in places like this and being lucky enough to talk to people all over in my job as a truck driver the sense I am getting is that most people are in the same boat as I, floating down the creek without a paddle. We're being taxed like never before at the provincial and municipal levels because the federal Liberals looted their coffers. The Liberals robbed from Peter to pay Paul (love the pun, it is intended) instead of solving their problems they merely took the money to buy themselves out of their problems from lower levels of government.

It's been years since the Liberal party has done any real good in this country.

Wow. Not one naysayer. I must be right.