166 Seats for the Tories... will it come to pass?

[SamStranger]

I dont know too much about polls. I know how their done and what they mean, but I dont know the history of them and if they are usually correct. The Strategic Council is predicting a Majority Conservative Government with a win of 166 seats. Do you think that will happen? Were the polls correct last year?

Fill me in please...

[kimmy]

I assume you're referring to this:

Hill and Knowlton Election Predictor

How good of a prediction is it? It depends on their methodology. Because of the way our system works, it's hard to translate polls into seats. If I was guessing, 166 seats seems far too high.

Another election predictor is at Democracticspace. He uses results from the last election in each riding, then adjusts to account for changes in polling. It's flawed, I think, but probably not bad as these things go.

His latest predicts 135 Conservative seats, which I find more believable than 166.

Democratic Space Projection for Jan 15 (PDF file)

-k

[geoffrey]

I dont know too much about polls. I know how their done and what they mean, but I dont know the history of them and if they are usually correct. The Strategic Council is predicting a Majority Conservative Government with a win of 166 seats. Do you think that will happen? Were the polls correct last year?

Fill me in please...

166 seems only a little bit too high. My last optimistic prediction was 162 I believe. However, I'm starting to question just where the Liberals are going to win the 82 seats predicted by democratic space. The 905 district is going CPC is a hurry, the Liberals may be left with only enough seats to count on one hand in Quebec. So that leaves a couple seats in Central and Northern Ontario and Toronto. Thats not enough for 82 seats.

Add in the voters that will vote CPC just to be on the government side of the house and really your not going to see those 82 Liberal seats. The 32 to the NDP is also too generous, they aren't really making much in terms of gains in this election. The 59 to the Bloc is too low, 62-64 is more accurate, if they can slow the drain to the CPC.

[geoffrey]

And hey, that Hill and Knowlton predictor is awfully close to my predictions, maybe I'm not too crazy after all?

[scribblet]

Seems high to me, I'm still guessing a Conservative minority. However, a couple more liberal gaffes and it could turn into a majority.

[shoop]

k,

Agreed that 135 is closer to the more likely outcome than 166, but I feel he is being to favourable to the Liberals in two key provinces. i.e. BC and Ontario.

I feel he is giving the Liberals three to many seats in BC [two of those going CPC and the other going NDP] and 11 too many in Ontario [7 CPC and 4 NDP].

With those changes I would guess the CPC is in very solid minority territory yet still shy of a majority.

CPC 146 seats

Lib 71

BQ 59

NDP 37

Now the big question is can the CPC move another 10 seats to their side in the remaining days. It will be fascinating to many of the local races in other provinces (being from Alberta and all )

His latest predicts 135 Conservative seats, which I find more believable than 166.

Democratic Space Projection for Jan 15 (PDF file)

-k

[cybercoma]

I assume you're referring to this:

Hill and Knowlton Election Predictor

How good of a prediction is it? It depends on their methodology. Because of the way our system works, it's hard to translate polls into seats. If I was guessing, 166 seats seems far too high.

Another election predictor is at Democracticspace. He uses results from the last election in each riding, then adjusts to account for changes in polling. It's flawed, I think, but probably not bad as these things go.

His latest predicts 135 Conservative seats, which I find more believable than 166.

Democratic Space Projection for Jan 15 (PDF file)

-k

I think his conservative seats in Ontario are too high. And 5 seats in Quebec for Harper and crew....that seems high too.

For example, his Windsor predictions show the NDP winning (which no doubt they will) but I can almost promise you that it will be a landslide win for Brian Masse (MP-NDP, Windsor West) and a better-than-narrow win for Joe Comartin (MP-NDP, Windsor-Tecumseh). Former Deputy Prime Minister Herb Gray owned Windsor West for years, so it's hard to imagine Al Teshuba of the Conservative Party beating Warren Keller (former Herb Gray campaign manager, correct me if I'm wrong).

I just don't think this is very accurate.

I'm certain it will be a Tory minority and a very close one at that. The problem we're going to run into is the NDP picking up more seats and working alongside the Liberals making things difficult for the Consevatives. I don't think they'll bring down the government, but I think they're going to make it awfully hard for anything to be passed.