New Spark Poll - some very interesting findings comparing Trudea to Polievre

[CdnFox]

https://sparkadvocacy.ca/insights/2024/01/trailing-by-14-perceptions-of-justin-trudeau-lag-those-of-pierre-poilievre

Very interesting, people have many of the same concerns about both - but they have higher levels of concern about trudeau.

I wonder how much of this is sticking to the liberal brand?

Beyond looking at current voting intentions, we probed to learn a bit more about the perceived attributes of Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre. Here’s what we found:

• Negative perceptions of the Liberal leader are higher than for Poilievre.
• The most widely held criticisms of Trudeau are that he “spends a lot more than is needed, has a big ego, divides people, likes to preach to people about how they should live, and is out of ideas for the future”.
• The most widely held criticisms of Poilievre are that he “would be risky for Canada, has a big ego, would cut a lot of things that people need and promotes anger and divides.”

Some important gaps worth noting:

• More people think Trudeau has a big ego (42%) than feel that way about Poilievre (30%).
• More people think Trudeau divides people (36%) than say that about Poilievre (27%).
• More people think Poilievre has good ideas for Canada (30%) than think that is the case for Trudeau (17%).
• More people think Poilievre is “focused on issues that matter to me” (26%) than think that about Trudeau (17%).

 

Our Take

According to Bruce Anderson: “Elections obviously aren’t only a choice between leaders, but perceptions of the leaders have a good deal to do with the competitive position of each party. These numbers document that Mr. Poilievre has established some positives in the minds of Canadians, and that some negative perceptions have developed about Mr. Trudeau over time.

For the Conservatives, presenting Mr. Poilievre as reassuring (not risky) and focused on ideas that will help the average person is the best way to continue to lead in the polls. Criticizing Trudeau’s deficits and the sense that the government is “preachy” and out of touch with the issues that matter to people everyday will also help their prospects.

For the Liberals, the results point up a need to define and reinforce the risk associated with the election of a Poilievre government and in so doing describe the everyday life consequences that people would feel from cuts to programs such as childcare. Clearly as well, if the Liberals were able to reduce public concerns that they spend more than needed, and are in public life to serve more than preach, this would help their prospects over the coming months.”

 

[Michael Hardner]

It's hard to imagine PM Trudeau making it to reelection, even if the economy improves.

I ask people to notice how much ADVERTISING language is used here, and to note that politics has suffered due to focus on branding and impressions.  That's the framework that got Trudeau elected in the first place.

I welcome the question about IDEAS in which Poilievre trounces Trudeau, perhaps because of a fact-based documentary video he has released.

Regardless of what you think of the leaders, I ask you to look at presenting ideas vs persona.

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

It's hard to imagine PM Trudeau making it to reelection, even if the economy improves.

Sure, and i think we've known that for a while.  I think what trudeau is hoping is he'll basically pull a repeat of his father,  do well enough to hold PP to a minority, trigger an election 6-9 months later (before the libs can hold a leadership race) and manage to win again with a minority.'

I don't think that's very likely either.' I think PP's probably going to get a majority. Still - you never can tell. It depends also on how much of what people dislike about justin has transferred to their feelings about the liberals.

 

Quote

I ask people to notice how much ADVERTISING language is used here, and to note that politics has suffered due to focus on branding and impressions.  That's the framework that got Trudeau elected in the first place.

That's kind of been a thing for forever tho hasn't it? Like - with all politicians.

THe FIRST trudeau made it all about his branding and persona.  Mulroney and chretien were both about the charm and personal brand.  Obama was all about branding.  etc etc.  Heck even ceaser - "Friends, romans, countrymen....." LOL. (i know i know, not actually ceaser but vendi vidi vici isn't much different).

 

Quote

 

I welcome the question about IDEAS in which Poilievre trounces Trudeau, perhaps because of a fact-based documentary video he has released.

Regardless of what you think of the leaders, I ask you to look at presenting ideas vs persona.

 

The challenge is that politics and the media in the last 70 years has made presenting ideas very dangerous for politicians.

The media (of any stripe) and the opposition will always turn policies against you. And then completely ignore what they said about your policy, steal the good parts after they win, and they will get complete credit for it.  Ecample - Chretien ran against GST and Free trade saying they were terrible for canada and bashing them - then kept both. And suffered no penalty for doing so.

Meanwhile last election trudeau refused to release his platform until 3 weeks into the election, and basically stole o'toole's and just put a few extra numbers in. O'toole - we'll buitl a million homes!  Trudeau - We'll build 1.2 million!"  etc etc.  And he won - so why would he have talked about policy? better to talk about covid and how Erin would partner with Kenny to kill your grandmother with covid by ending vaccines.

There's a billion examples, but the end result is political parties and prime ministers are there to get elected. If we make election more likely by demanding they discuss issues then that's what  they'll do and if we make it a personality contest that's what they'll do.

So far the voters have made elections about personality.  We get the gov'ts we deserve i guess.  If we want to have different discussions at election time we need to change what the voters want first.

[Nefarious Banana]

Does anyone think that the Canadian voter has been 'turned off' politics considering the present PM's appalling behavior and bizarre fascination with control and climate change?  Apathy a factor?

[CdnFox]

2 minutes ago, Nefarious Banana said:

Does anyone think that the Canadian voter has been 'turned off' politics considering the present PM's appalling behavior and bizarre fascination with control and climate change?  Apathy a factor?

We won't know till we see the next voter turn out.  But i do think many of the people are looking around them and have become desperate, and if anything are more engaged right now with someone who can convince them that he's got any kind of plausible plan.

[Michael Hardner]

4 hours ago, CdnFox said:

The challenge is that politics and the media in the last 70 years has made presenting ideas very dangerous for politicians.

Since 1954?  I would start the gradual decline from 1964 when Television won the day with an anti Goldwater ad.  Morning in America and Willie Horton were the next big ad victories.

By the time Obama and J. Trudeau appeared logos and campaigns were paramount.

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

Since 1954?  I would start the gradual decline from 1964 when Television won the day with an anti Goldwater ad.  Morning in America and Willie Horton were the next big ad victories.

By the time Obama and J. Trudeau appeared logos and campaigns were paramount.

Well ads go back to the 1800's, take a look at some of the speeches from the us in the 1800's   (watch the vid for some past campaign speeches which were distributed and published as ads in those days - very short but absolutely hilarious)

https://reason.com/2010/10/29/attack-ads-circa-1800/

I love where they distribute the speech that says if jefferson is elected women's chastiy will be sold and there will be children writhing on pikes   

But - I think the debate in the past at least in Canada did focus a bit more on what policy would be.  I think that faded after ww2 more and more, i think trudeau got in (first one) almost entirely on personality and that was probably one of the first times, and i think that even before that policy had started taking a backseat.

now it's all about personality and the perception of whether or not the guy understands the issues.  PP is kicking ass because he's convinced the whole country that he has a good understanding of  what is bugging them.  Not because he's put forward a plan to deal with it.