GOVERNMENT FALLS

[tml12]

The Martin government has ended tonight in a historic non-confidence vote to topple Canada's 38th Parliament.

We will probably go to the polls on January 23.

http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=dd6137...f9bb22b&k=11732

Predictions???

[crazymf]

I predict that again I won't get to vote in this election being from Alberta. Quebec and Ontario will re-elect Paul Martin in yet another minority government and we'll be back to the same old same old corruption and liberal misgivings that I hate about this countries present form.

-raspberry-

[Riverwind]

Predictions???

We will end up with a majority or near majority because Canadians are more disgusted with minority gov'ts than they are with either the Liberals or the Conservatives. The polls will be neck and neck until voting day when we will all get a big surprise when the undecideds have to make a decision. Right now, I would bet on a Conservative gov't but Harper could screw up the campaign badly.

[Biblio Bibuli]

The Martin government has ended tonight in a historic non-confidence vote to topple Canada's 38th Parliament. 

We will probably go to the polls on January 23. 

http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=dd6137...f9bb22b&k=11732

Predictions???

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My dream outcome would be a Liberal minority.

My alternate is a CPC minority.

I won't even mention a Liberal majority, because that's humanly impossible.

What I fear is a CPC majority.

I'LL DO OR SAY ANYTHING TO GET MICHAEL IGNATIEFF ONTO THE THRONE PRONTO !!!!

[apollo19]

Predictions???

We will end up with a majority or near majority because Canadians are more disgusted with minority gov'ts than they are with either the Liberals or the Conservatives. The polls will be neck and neck until voting day when we will all get a big surprise when the undecideds have to make a decision. Right now, I would bet on a Conservative gov't but Harper could screw up the campaign badly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I have a feeling Harper will do quite well after just watching all of the leader's talks. For once, he didn't focus on Gomery, he seemed friendly with his caucus, and of course there were well-positioned minorities behind him. He impressed me for the very first time (something hard for him to do). Martin went right on the attack in his speech, whipping out the "evil neoconservative" card. I was surprised how Layton was so small of a factor after the defeat of the govt -- perhaps a sign that the NDP won't really do that much better?

[Biblio Bibuli]

I would bet on a Conservative gov't but Harper could screw up the campaign badly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I doubt he'll screw up this time around. That's because he knows when to hold them and when to fold them.

But that's only good in a poker game.

That he didn't care and folded, once it became obvious to him that he was toast the last time around, is an obvious sign that he is a child at heart. A great way to be if you are an ordinary man, but deadly if in charge of the country and its people.

DUMP HIM!

[August1991]

I have a feeling Harper will do quite well after just watching all of the leader's talks. For once, he didn't focus on Gomery, he seemed friendly with his caucus, and of course there were well-positioned minorities behind him. He impressed me for the very first time (something hard for him to do). Martin went right on the attack in his speech, whipping out the "evil neoconservative" card. I was surprised how Layton was so small of a factor after the defeat of the govt -- perhaps a sign that the NDP won't really do that much better?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I too thought Harper's speech was appropriate. Rather than speak to the Tory caucus, Harper spoke to Canadians. He said several important things but essentially, ordinary Canadians want a change to an honest government.

Martin, OTOH, delivered a partisan speech to his caucus.

As to giving short-shrift to Layton, true. The CBC referred to Martin as "Prime Minister" and gave his speech principal attention. This morning, there was a long interview with Stephane Dion.

You have to live in a country during a biased election to understand how this is done. There are many subtle cues but the essence is that the government party is not treated the same way as an opposition party.

[Riverwind]

I too thought Harper's speech was appropriate.  Rather than speak to the Tory caucus, Harper spoke to Canadians.  He said several important things but essentially, ordinary Canadians want a change to an honest government.

I listened to both speeches: if I had to choose a PM based on what was said in those speaches alone I would choose Harper because he offered the most positive vision for the future. If he keeps that up he will do well.

[scribblet]

I too thought Harper's speech was appropriate.  Rather than speak to the Tory caucus, Harper spoke to Canadians.  He said several important things but essentially, ordinary Canadians want a change to an honest government.

I listened to both speeches: if I had to choose a PM based on what was said in those speaches alone I would choose Harper because he offered the most positive vision for the future. If he keeps that up he will do well.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree, Martin attacked right away, used the terms separatist and neo-cons, deliberately thought out wording. This is going to be nasty, the liberals have allready admitted to it being a negative campaign, with the worst of the negative ads to come out towards the end.

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/20...elec051128.html

Martin attacks Harper, Bloc after no-confidence vote

Shortly after his minority Liberal government collapsed Monday night, Prime Minister Paul Martin lashed out at the opposition as he launched his party's election campaign.

[normanchateau]

I think it will be a minority government but I don't feel sufficiently confident to predict whether that minority will be Liberal or Conservative. If Liberal, I expect CPC will dump Harper and replace him with a more electable leader who is not a social conservative extremist. Harper's replacement might go on to win a Conservative majority. If Conservative, I expect the Liberals will quickly dump Martin and replace him with someone untainted by adscam. Martin's replacement will, with the help of the NDP and/or BQ, defeat the Conservative minority and go on to form a Liberal majority government. In other words, whoever wins a minority government this time won't win a majority in the next round.

[Guest eureka]

What important things did Harper say.

I will look in in the morning for my laugh of the day.

[lovecanada]

Most important thing Harper said was:

Stand Up For Canada!!

Sounded real good to me.

[politika]

I am looking forward to finding out the election out come in January. Right now I am hopeing for a Conservative Minority at least maybe a small chance at a majority. I agree with Harper's stand up for Canada speech. I believe Steve is a man of his word he says somthing he's going to do it no if, and's or dithering. I think he would be an honest leader not just fix up his attitude towards the country and start bribeing Canadians near election date with new funds for departments like the Liberal's are doing.

I think a Conservative government will do good to this country, it might not happan until Steve is kicked out by his MP's because of their lack of faith but if a new guy comes along and picks up Harper's roll and still has the same politicol views as harper he/she will be just as good.

Not trying to sway off topic or anything but quickly could someone take a shot at who would be a few candidates who might run for Conservative leadership if Harper ever get's kicked out?

[scribblet]

 

I think a Conservative government will do good to this country, it might not happan until Steve is kicked out by his MP's because of their lack of faith but if a new guy comes along and picks up Harper's roll and still has the same politicol views as harper he/she will be just as good.

Not trying to sway off topic or anything but quickly could someone take a shot at who would be a few candidates who might run for Conservative leadership if Harper ever get's kicked out?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So do I, and Harper has united a party and actually transformed it to 'Liberal Lite', (not necessarily good) he's certainly no religious extremist as some would like to portray him, his religion is a private matter to him. In fact, he's become a bit soft on some conservative issues, particularly the social issues. Thats okay for me, but he still has to come out and be more specific on policy, guess we'll hear more of that now. Although the liberals have stolen a lot of the CPC thunder, I'm hoping Harper has something up his sleeve to pull this off. I think his or the party's biggest problem is getting their actual policies and message out, but the media etal continue to repeat the tired old rhetoric.

As far as I know there's nothing in the works for a leadership review, I suppose if he loses badly, then there would be one. I'm guessing Monte Solberg might be a contender.

[moderateamericain]

Was this a large surprise for any of you? I mean its not everday that you see a government toppled. It would be a huge deal in the US. How do you think this is going to effect the Candian Economy? Could Quebec try to seperate again in the vacuum? Im just curious to hear some best case/worst case scenarios out of this.

[shoop]

Easy, it isn't like this is a coup or anything. This is just an outcome of a (Westminster-style) parliamentary democracy. It is just a natural extension of not having fixed election dates.

Shouldn't have been a big surprise to anyone who watches Canadian politics.

Little to no effect on the Canadian economy.

No chance for Quebec to try and separate as a result of this election. The next provincial election in Quebec is another matter though.

Best case scenario depends on your political leanings. A conservative government for me. The Liberals proven theft of $1.14 Million in government money makes it time for them to leave.

Was this a large surprise for any of you?  I mean its not everday that you see a government toppled.  It would be a huge deal in the US.  How do you think this is going to effect the Candian Economy?  Could Quebec try to seperate again in the vacuum? Im just curious to hear some best case/worst case scenarios out of this.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[tml12]

Was this a large surprise for any of you?  I mean its not everday that you see a government toppled.  It would be a huge deal in the US.  How do you think this is going to effect the Candian Economy?  Could Quebec try to seperate again in the vacuum? Im just curious to hear some best case/worst case scenarios out of this.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Best Case Scenario: Martin or Harper minority.

Worst Case Scenario: The NDP picks up any more seats OR Liberal/Conservative majority.

[tml12]

Easy, it isn't like this is a coup or anything. This is just an outcome of a (Westminster-style)  parliamentary democracy. It is just a natural extension of not having fixed election dates.

Shouldn't have been a big surprise to anyone who watches Canadian politics.

Little to no effect on the Canadian economy.

No chance for Quebec to try and separate as a result of this election. The next provincial election in Quebec is another matter though.

Best case scenario depends on your political leanings. A conservative government for me. The Liberals proven theft of $1.14 Million in government money makes it time for them to leave.

Was this a large surprise for any of you?  I mean its not everday that you see a government toppled.  It would be a huge deal in the US.  How do you think this is going to effect the Candian Economy?   Could Quebec try to seperate again in the vacuum? Im just curious to hear some best case/worst case scenarios out of this.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If the NDP picks up any more seats it would be simply awful. When Martin picked up after that screwball Chretien he and Defence Minister Bill Graham said Canada would join missile defence and help out in Iraq...yet Martin was bribed by the commie NDP to deny Canada the basic right to defend itself.

With all due respect I don't know how anyone who isn't on a university campus would vote for the NDP (I should know...I meet a lot of university student everyday...)

[shoop]

Maybe people who are in the same financial condition as they were in undergrad?

The NDs could pick up a few seats, but any of their wins will definitely be at the expensive the Liberals. So it's all good!

If the NDP picks up any more seats it would be simply awful.  When Martin picked up after that screwball Chretien he and Defence Minister Bill Graham said Canada would join missile defence and help out in Iraq...yet Martin was bribed by the commie NDP to deny Canada the basic right to defend itself.

With all due respect I don't know how anyone who isn't on a university campus would vote for the NDP (I should know...I meet a lot of university student everyday...)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[tml12]

Maybe people who are in the same financial condition as they were in undergrad?

The NDs could pick up a few seats, but any of their wins will definitely be at the expensive the Liberals. So it's all good!

If the NDP picks up any more seats it would be simply awful.  When Martin picked up after that screwball Chretien he and Defence Minister Bill Graham said Canada would join missile defence and help out in Iraq...yet Martin was bribed by the commie NDP to deny Canada the basic right to defend itself.

With all due respect I don't know how anyone who isn't on a university campus would vote for the NDP (I should know...I meet a lot of university student everyday...)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Possibly and yes NDP seats would probably mean Liberal losses...

As someone in their early 20s who is an undergrad student, I don't think I really ever want to be in this financial situation EVER again!!!

[moderateamericain]

Maybe people who are in the same financial condition as they were in undergrad?

The NDs could pick up a few seats, but any of their wins will definitely be at the expensive the Liberals. So it's all good!

If the NDP picks up any more seats it would be simply awful.  When Martin picked up after that screwball Chretien he and Defence Minister Bill Graham said Canada would join missile defence and help out in Iraq...yet Martin was bribed by the commie NDP to deny Canada the basic right to defend itself.

With all due respect I don't know how anyone who isn't on a university campus would vote for the NDP (I should know...I meet a lot of university student everyday...)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i kind of get the general consesus out of everyone on this board that the NDP is bad news? I do my best to keep up on the parties but canadian politics are hard to follow at best. (As an American i get little news). If i may so humbly ask, how does the NPD Cons and Liberals measure up to what we have here in the USA? (ex, is what you call conservative there the same thing as here?)

[shoop]

The titles Conservative and Liberal are far, far different between the two countries. When I lived in DC I was a hard-core Democrat. Let's look at three critical issues in the U.S.

Abortion - there are many, many members of the Conservative Party of Canada who are, as I am, Pro-choice. (Despite the fear-mongering of the Liberals who try to use it as a wedge issue.)

Capital Punishment - a vast majority of Canadians feel it is barbaric. No one is seriously advocating for the return of the death penalty anywhere in Canada.

Gun Control - the Canadian government's gun registry is a farce, but most people in Canada favour some form of registration.

The NDs would be Ralph Nader-esque. The Liberal Party of Canada would be on the far left of the Democratic party. The Conservative Party would span 'moderates' from both American parties.

The histrionics of the Liberals about the *scary* Canadian Conservatives is to preserve their own power, and the NDs - well like Nader supporters they are a little wacky.

i kind of get the general consesus out of everyone on this board that the NDP is bad news?  I do my best to keep up on the parties but canadian politics are hard to follow at best.  (As an American i get little news).  If i may so humbly ask,  how does the NPD Cons and Liberals measure up to what we have here in the USA?  (ex, is what you call conservative there the same thing as here?)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[tml12]

Maybe people who are in the same financial condition as they were in undergrad?

The NDs could pick up a few seats, but any of their wins will definitely be at the expensive the Liberals. So it's all good!

If the NDP picks up any more seats it would be simply awful.  When Martin picked up after that screwball Chretien he and Defence Minister Bill Graham said Canada would join missile defence and help out in Iraq...yet Martin was bribed by the commie NDP to deny Canada the basic right to defend itself.

With all due respect I don't know how anyone who isn't on a university campus would vote for the NDP (I should know...I meet a lot of university student everyday...)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i kind of get the general consesus out of everyone on this board that the NDP is bad news? I do my best to keep up on the parties but canadian politics are hard to follow at best. (As an American i get little news). If i may so humbly ask, how does the NPD Cons and Liberals measure up to what we have here in the USA? (ex, is what you call conservative there the same thing as here?)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The Conservative Party, as we have it today, is a little bit to the left of the Republican Party in the U.S. and the Democratic Party is a bit to the right of the Liberal Party (if this makes sense). There really is no NDP equivalent that I can think of in U.S. federal politics.

However, things also vary a bit depending on the part of the country you're in. I lived in New York City for awhile and, although the mayor (Giuliani) and the governor (Pataki) were Republicans, they were socially moderate (pro-choice, etc.) and economically moderate (social welfare, etc.). They would be seen, I would guess, as left of the mainstream Democratic Party be some Texas conservatives.

Check out the "Canada 2005" and "U.S. 2004" election links on politicalcompass.org, as I believe they do a good comparison job.

[shoop]

The CPC is more than a "little" to the left of the Republicans. Compare moderate, red tories, and moderate Republicans.

There is no actual party that is the ND equivalent but Michael Moore and Ralph Nader best represent their views.

The Conservative Party, as we have it today, is a little bit to the left of the Republican Party in the U.S. and the Democratic Party is a bit to the right of the Liberal Party (if this makes sense).  There really is no NDP equivalent that I can think of in U.S. federal politics. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Guest eureka]

If Harper is a "man of his word," which word is it that he is a man of? Is it the word of a dozen years ago or the word of today? Is it that of "Firewall" Harper or the all inclusive Harper of his speech?

The reality is that the man has no principles and no optimistic vision for Canda. His whole career has been devoted to bringing an American philosophy to Canada and to integrating Canada into that economy.

His "softer" talk of the present is out of political necessity not out of conviction.