Is the separation of Quebec becoming inevitable?

[fellowtraveller]

All the stars and planets are aligning for the separatists, federally and provincially.

The provinical economy is much improved from 1995. The Bloc will sweep Quebec in the next federal election. The PQ is very likely to win the next provincial election in 2007, and will hold a referendum soon thereafter. Their policy is not sovereignty association anymore, but separation. There are few federalist leaders remaining at the provincial level in Quebec, credible respected leaders. There is a vacuum of leadership in Ottawa, everybody is yammering away, nobody is listening anywhere. And the cherry on top of the sundae is the separatist wet dream of Gomery, a rallying point for all that is perceived to be wrong with remaining in Canada.

Is separation inevitable?

[tml12]

All the stars and planets are aligning for the separatists, federally and provincially. 

The provinical economy is much improved from 1995.  The Bloc will sweep Quebec in the next federal election.  The PQ is very likely to win the next provincial election in 2007, and will hold a referendum soon thereafter.  Their policy is not sovereignty association anymore, but separation. There are few federalist leaders remaining at the provincial level in Quebec, credible respected leaders.  There is a vacuum of leadership in Ottawa, everybody is yammering away, nobody is listening anywhere.  And the cherry on top of the sundae is the separatist wet dream of Gomery, a rallying point for all that is perceived to be wrong with remaining in Canada.

Is  separation  inevitable?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I do not think I would use the term "inevitable." Prior to the sponsorship scandal, we weren't hearing much about sovereignty, it was a dormant issue.

However, I do agree that I am seeing more apathy as of late. Whereas in the past, my friends from Ontario and Halifax were staunch federalists and my friends from the West were a bit more apathetic, now more of my Ontario friends are starting to say "let's just let the question go away...and if you guys vote for it then just go, whatever."

That kind of "whatever" attitude may put the pressure on Ottawa to encourage federalism in Quebec but, alas, that can't really happen anymore.

At this point, Quebecers will make their choice. I believe another referendum is inevitable...but the result? It's anyones guess at this point.

[Bakunin]

At this point, Quebecers will make their choice.  I believe another referendum is inevitable...but the result?  It's anyones guess at this point.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I totally agree. I think that it is all about the new generation. Older generation have already set their minds. The newer one, the one that didn't vote in 1995 and that never really thought about it will be the most important factor.

Those generation have never seen another form of federal government than the liberal one...

I think that for this reason, the gomery comission is very important and so is the next election. If the liberals win again, i think sovreignty will get another momentum because quebecker really want to make the liberals pay and lose the next election.

[Black Dog]

Separation won't happen simply because Quebec can get more out of Canada by threatening to leave than they could by actually leaving.

[Lachapelle]

Separation won't happen simply because Quebec can get more out of Canada by threatening to leave than they could by actually leaving.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Unfortunately after the publication of the PQ post sepration budget, many actually believe that we will be financially better off by separating

[tml12]

Separation won't happen simply because Quebec can get more out of Canada by threatening to leave than they could by actually leaving.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That is why so many federalists vote for the PQ, even anglophones, but no at referendum.

[August1991]

Is  separation  inevitable?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The simple and direct answer is "yes", although I still believe that negotiations will lead to some kind of autonomous status.

The history of Ireland and the history of the pre-Civil War US are instructive. A country rarely changes quickly. In hindsight, it should have been obvious that it would take time to change Quebec's status in Canada, including the possibility of outright independence.

Separation won't happen simply because Quebec can get more out of Canada by threatening to leave than they could by actually leaving.

The Irish now have a higher standard of living than the British.

[fellowtraveller]

If the liberals win again, i think sovreignty will get another momentum because quebecker really want to make the liberals pay and lose the next election.

I agree that a Liberal win will give even more impetus to a referendum and separation. My prediction is that there won't be an election until after the final Gomery report, because the Libs will make a deal, any deal, with the NDP to reatin power/delay. . They can always back out of any deals anyway. And if we don't vote until April - the Liberals will win at least a minority, with only a couple of seats in Quebec.

In hindsight, it should have been obvious that it would take time to change Quebec's status in Canada, including the possibility of outright independence.

It depends on where you think we are in the process of establsihing an independent Qubec. I think we are well into it, and indeed approaching the endgame and still accelerating.

[Riverwind]

The Irish now have a higher standard of living than the British.

And how much of that was a result of direct subsidies from the EU over the last 30 years? The Irish have done many things right but I don't think they would have done so well if they were not part of the European Community. The chances of Quebec negotiating any like that with Canada or the US are next to zero.

Furthermore, Quebec already has the powers it needs to create an Ireland style recovery, however, it has chosen to engage in a useless and debilitating argument about separation instead of looking after the economic future of Quebequers. Quebec would be a much richer place today if the separation question had never come up.

[tml12]

Is  separation  inevitable?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The simple and direct answer is "yes", although I still believe that negotiations will lead to some kind of autonomous status.

The history of Ireland and the history of the pre-Civil War US are instructive. A country rarely changes quickly. In hindsight, it should have been obvious that it would take time to change Quebec's status in Canada, including the possibility of outright independence.

Separation won't happen simply because Quebec can get more out of Canada by threatening to leave than they could by actually leaving.

The Irish now have a higher standard of living than the British.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

August,

Are you THAT confident of sovereignty being inevitable? I mean, I don't know what part of Montreal you're in but there are a lot of people around where I am that say that a yes vote would still be difficult and I agree.

I mean to say that it MAY happen is one thing but certainly that it will, I think, is still one big IF.

[Guest eureka]

The history of Ireland and the pre-civil war US have little to casr light on the Quebec situation. Ireland was a separate country colonized by Britain and its independence was always a question of when.

The US until 1860 was, theoretically, a collection of semi autonomous states still struggling to find the meaning of statehood. The war unified it and, unless you mean that there will be a Civil War in Canada to unify this country, I fail to see any basis for comparison.

Ireland's prosperity, BTW, was the result of, as Sparhawk says, its strategic place in the EU where it was a natural destination for outside investment. That followed the large sums of money from England that first fuelled its renaissance. In the early eighties, about 2 billion pounds annually was sent home to Ireland by the expatriate Irish working in England.

Added to those was the realization of the place of education. Education was made free at all levels and the Irish developed perhaps the best educated workforce in the world. That was the key to the type of business that has earned Ireland its place in the sun.

[Freshinit]

Economically, seperatin would be a bad idea for Quebec. As of right now Quebecers are enjoying their treats in the form of transfer payments. Alberta's surplus is helping to keep their economy afloat.

Regardless of the seperation, I think the english invasion of French culture is inevitable in the long run. What do the french expect to do? Ban all english media and subdue their youth to a limited source of information?