Tim Murphy and the federal Liberals

[August1991]

If Tim Murphy did an interview with the Toronto Star's Graham Fraser, then I guess he really felt that he needed to fix something. It is a rare Chief of Staff who speaks to the press in the first person.

Graham Fraser would never do a tough piece on a Liberal yet the interview is interesting. I think the basic idea is that Tim Murphy is a smart, ambitious winner and everyone knows that it's better to be with a winner.

I'm not going to discuss that idea - nor even the mindset of someone as ambitious as Tim Murphy. Instead, the interview made me realize something else about this country and the Liberal Party.

The entire article is about Ontario, in fact southern Ontario. The world of Tim Murphy is a small political world of Ottawa and Toronto - with at most university in Kingston. I suspect that Stephane Dion feels just as uncomfortable in that small world as Stephen Harper does.

[Riverwind]

The entire article is about Ontario, in fact southern Ontario.  The world of Tim Murphy is a small political world of Ottawa and Toronto - with at most university in Kingston.  I suspect that Stephane Dion feels just as uncomfortable in that small world as Stephen Harper does.

The article was in a local Toronto paper so a focus on southern ontario should not be that surprising. I am really not sure what your point is? The the PMO is parochial? You would need to know that there are no other people in the PMO that reflect the views of other regions to make that statement.

[bigdude]

Toronto rules Canada ....so what else is new, eh!

[August1991]

The article was in a local Toronto paper so a focus on southern ontario should not be that surprising.

I think Graham Fraser opened his notebook to Murphy and asked, "What do you want me to write?" And I doubt very much that Murphy would intentionally tailor his comments for the Toronto market. Instead, I suspect that neither Fraser nor Murphy seemed aware of how narrow their viewpoints are. I believe this is Warren Kinsella's point too.

I am really not sure what your point is? The the PMO is parochial? You would need to know that there are no other people in the PMO that reflect the views of other regions to make that statement.

To be honest, I don't know what my point is. The interview surprised me. I'm surprised that Murphy gave such an interview, and only to the Toronto Star.

But I suppose that I am making the point that the PMO is parochial. I have argued elsewhere here that the Liberal Party of Canada now represents primarily Ontario and anglophone Quebec.

[Riverwind]

But I suppose that I am making the point that the PMO is parochial.  I have argued elsewhere here that the Liberal Party of Canada now represents primarily Ontario and anglophone Quebec.

I would not say that. The Liberal party is a party of urban Canada. The bigger the city the more votes the Liberals get. Calgary is the only exception. If we had true rep by pop in country (i.e. all ridings had exactly the same number of voters) then the BQ and the Conservatives would have considerablely fewer seats.

[August1991]

But I suppose that I am making the point that the PMO is parochial.  I have argued elsewhere here that the Liberal Party of Canada now represents primarily Ontario and anglophone Quebec.

I would not say that. The Liberal party is a party of urban Canada. The bigger the city the more votes the Liberals get. Calgary is the only exception.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Maybe. Except what non-Ontario cities do you mean? Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg. Most people in Montreal and Quebec City voted BQ. And then, the Liberals did well in many rural areas in Ontario.

True, social and economic issues divide Canadians but what strikes me is how regional our federal politics have become. When people describe the Conservatives as being the Reform/Alliance party, in effect they are saying that it is a western party.

Perhaps one reason the NDP is unsuccessful is that it is not identified with a specific region.

I suspect for the foreseeable future, Canada will have corrupt minority governments like in post-war Italy. The BQ is like the Communist Party: no English Canadian party can work with the BQ and this will make running government difficult.

From the article above:

"If you want to get a bill passed, you want to get a motion passed, you want to get a budget passed, you want to get a government agenda passed, you've got to garner a majority in the House," he continues. "That means you've got to accommodate other views. The criticism is nonsensical! That's what Canadians asked us to do! They said "We're not going to give any of you a majority! Work together! You have to accommodate other viewpoints!' What the hell else can it be?"

No one ever said making sausages was a pretty sight. But not all sausages are the same.

[Riverwind]

Maybe.  Except what non-Ontario cities do you mean?  Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg.  Most people in Montreal and Quebec City voted BQ.  And then, the Liberals did well in many rural areas in Ontario.

If you overlayed a population density map over the electoral map you would see a strong correlation between population density and Liberal ridings in every region in the country. The same is true in Quebec. The drop in support in Francophone urban ridings is a new phenomena brought on by Gomery. FYI - the exact same correlation exists in the US with the democratic vote.

True, social and economic issues divide Canadians but what strikes me is how regional our federal politics have become.  When people describe the Conservatives as being the Reform/Alliance party, in effect they are saying that it is a western party.

Teh conservatives only really dominate Alberta. The other western provinces are divided much like Ontario. The rural ridings tend to be conservative and the urban ridings are liberal/ndp.

I suspect for the foreseeable future, Canada will have corrupt minority governments like in post-war Italy.  The BQ is like the Communist Party: no English Canadian party can work with the BQ and this will make running government difficult.

The ADQ could try to get into Federal politics. They are not exactly federalists but they are ambiguous enough on the topic that they could be part of a government coilition.

[August1991]

FYI - the exact same correlation exists in the US with the democratic vote.

I tend to think that's what you are doing. You are taking an American political theory and applying it to Canada. It works partly, but it also misses an important feature of Canadian federal politics: our regionalism.

I don't dispute that there are differences in English Canada (in particular) on social issues which are reflected in an urban/rural split. But there are too many exceptions to this rule: Calgary, Montreal, Quebec City, Regina, Saskatoon to name only a few. Eastern Ontario is largely rural and yet the Liberals do well there.

I bet that the region would be a statistically discernible factor in determining voter intention once urban/rural residence and other factors were controlled for. Are you aware of any studies?

The BQ is only one obvious piece of evidence of faultlines in Canadian federal politics.

The ADQ could try to get into Federal politics. They are not exactly federalists but they are ambiguous enough on the topic that they could be part of a government coilition.

There is no space in Quebec politics for anything other than a federalist/sovereignist split. Incidentally, a specific Quebec federal party is not new in Quebec. The Creditistes elected 25 MPs in 1962, I believe.

[The Terrible Sweal]

The entire article is about Ontario, in fact southern Ontario.  The world of Tim Murphy is a small political world of Ottawa and Toronto - with at most university in Kingston.  I suspect that Stephane Dion feels just as uncomfortable in that small world as Stephen Harper does.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

August, your all consuming hatredof the Liberals has finally led you completely into the realm of the ridiculous. The TORONTO Star is a local paper, in a city in (Golly gee!) SOUTHERN ONTARIO. How dare it focus on loca issues. I suppose you'd prefer if peeps in southern Ontario would focus their entire beings on the need of Quebec?

[The Terrible Sweal]

You know, I read a comment in Le Devoir the other day from Gilles Duceppe. I was appalled because the reporter didn't ask him about his thoughts on B.C.'s response to aboriginal issues.

How shockingly self-centred!

[Riverwind]

I don't dispute that there are differences in English Canada (in particular) on social issues which are reflected in an urban/rural split.  But there are too many exceptions to this rule: Calgary, Montreal, Quebec City, Regina, Saskatoon to name only a few.  Eastern Ontario is largely rural and yet the Liberals do well there.

I live in the middle of 6 Liberal strongholds in Vancouver - The Liberals are not considered an Ontario party in these ridings. The last election was an aberration in Saskatoon and Regina. The conservatives won those ridings with 25-30% of the vote because the liberals and the ndp split the vote. See: http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/riding/236/

Montreal is also liberal stronghold and shows a pattern similar to Vancouver: the ridings closer to downtown go Liberal. The suburbs go BQ/Conservatives.

Quebec City and Calgary are the only exceptions and that is because they are the heartland of the two strong regoinalist voices in this country. I agree there is a regionalist aspect to Canadian politics that does not exist in the US. However, I think it is a mistake to call the Liberals a regional party. They are a national party that has been squeezed out by the regionalist Reform/BQ parties. When/if the regionalist tide recedes the Liberals will move out of the downtown core into the surrounding ridings. They will never win the truely rural ridings.

There is no space in Quebec politics for anything other than a federalist/sovereignist split.  Incidentally, a specific Quebec federal party is not new in Quebec.  The Creditistes elected 25 MPs in 1962, I believe.

Then the Liberals will need to resurrect themselves like they did after Trudeau. It took about 10 years.

[August1991]

That link to Saskatoon is interesting. What a split! Thanks. Saskatoon and Regina have 100,000 population? Hardly urban but I guess in the Saskatchewan context, they are "urban". Or rather, they are "metrosexual".

I understand your point that the Conservatives represent, in the Western context, social conservatism. In Quebec, Harper is perceived (if at all) as being Albertan. He connects here in the same way as, say, Stephane Dion would connect in Calgary. In Ontario, I think Harper is perceived as being non-mainstream. He's different.

Incidentally, given where I live (Montreal), the idea that Harper is a threat to any social question strikes me as absurd. Morality is not determined by the State. It is determined by people in their daily lives. It is not possible to legislate morality.

I live in the middle of 6 Liberal strong holds in Vancouver - The Liberals are not considered an Ontario party in these ridings.

Liberal strongholds? After 1988 perhaps - and the demise of the federal NDP when it chose weak, female leaders and when the BC NDP performed poorly. Am I wrong to say that in the past, these Vancouver ridings went NDP federally (as they probably do in provincial elections)?

True though. The success of the federal Liberals in Vancouver is one of the major changes in federal politics in the past 20 years. I always suspected that Trudeau married Margaret Sinclair because he thought that BC was his best chance.

You know, I read a comment in Le Devoir the other day from Gilles Duceppe. I was appalled because the reporter didn't ask him about his thoughts on B.C.'s response to aboriginal issues.

Duceppe openly states that he defends the interests of people in Quebec.

August, your all consuming hatredof the Liberals has finally led you completely into the realm of the ridiculous. The TORONTO Star is a local paper, in a city in (Golly gee!) SOUTHERN ONTARIO. How dare it focus on loca issues. I suppose you'd prefer if peeps in southern Ontario would focus their entire beings on the need of Quebec?

I don't really hate Liberals. But to choose a title from Graham Greene, Ontario Made Tim Murphy. Sweal, don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that Tim Murphy defends the interests of Ontario. (To be frank, I suspect Tim Murphy defends the interests of Tim Murphy.) I'm suggesting rather that Tim Murphy is oblivious. He thinks the rest of Canada is more or less like Ontario, or irrelevant.

L'inconscience, le fléau de notre ère.

You say that The Toronto Star is a local paper. I say that is all the more reason to be intrigued by such an interview.

[August1991]

Montreal is also liberal stronghold and shows a pattern similar to Vancouver: the ridings closer to downtown go Liberal. The suburbs go BQ/Conservatives.

Montreal voting patterns follow ethnic lines (like in the US, BTW). Also, Montreal francophones differ from non-Montreal francophones but not as the US rural/urban split.

However, I think it is a mistake to call the Liberals a regional party. They are a national party that has been squeezed out by the regionalist Reform/BQ parties. When/if the regionalist tide recedes the Liberals will move out of the downtown core into the surrounding ridings. They will never win the truely rural ridings.

Squeezed out? Regional tide recedes? Keeping Canada together has never been easy. With the collapse of the Catholic Church, the rise of the PQ, Trudeau's patriation of the Constitution, and then Meech Lake's rejection, it has been getting harder and harder.

----

The next election, whenever it comes, will be bad for the Liberals. The BQ will do better in Quebec (a few seats more). The NDP will do better (perhaps 10-20 seats). The Tories will not do worse.

[bigdude]

I wonder if Tim Murphy is going to go to jail.

The Tories have decided to release all the tapes, and apparently the law is pretty explicit about what you can and can't do, as far as offering incentives to an MP to sway their vote is concerned.

[Riverwind]

That link to Saskatoon is interesting.  What a split!  Thanks.  Saskatoon and Regina have 100,000 population?  Hardly urban but I guess in the Saskatchewan context, they are "urban".  Or rather, they are "metrosexual".

In all my discussions, I meant to say that urban depends on the regional context.

After 1988 perhaps - and the demise of the federal NDP when it chose weak, female leaders and when the BC NDP performed poorly.  Am I wrong to say that in the past, these Vancouver ridings went NDP federally (as they probably do in provincial elections)?

1988 is before my time. The Vancouver federal Liberal ridings go Liberal provincially. The NDP parts of Vancouver are NDP federally. An interesting note: Chuck Cadman's riding went quite strongly NDP in the provincial election. So he was probably right when he said his constituants wanted the budget passed.

I agree that Montreal voting patterns are much more complex than I have tried to make out. My main point is that you should not dismiss the Liberals as a 'regional' party even if it looks that way given the current seat counts.

[fellowtraveller]

what strikes me is how regional our federal politics have become

I have posted on this subject several times. It's the Balkanization of our country, and it is getting rapidly worse. What Ontario /Ottawa has failed to properly guage is the newfound vehemence of people sick of corruption, and sick of Ottawa.

IMO, it may be irreversible already. We are quickly reaching a critical mass of people who a) belive that our federation is no longer workable and are willing to act on their beliefs.

This country is urgently in need of leadership.

[kimmy]

Montreal is also liberal stronghold and shows a pattern similar to Vancouver: the ridings closer to downtown go Liberal. The suburbs go BQ/Conservatives.

Quebec City and Calgary are the only exceptions and that is because they are the heartland of the two strong regoinalist voices in this country.

I'll just mention that Edmonton probably also belongs on your list of exceptions. Aside from Kilgour and McLellan, the Liberals were utterly stomped in every Edmonton riding.

Given the bizarre riding boundries that have been drawn in the greater Edmonton area (and elsewhere no doubt), I'm not sure that McLellan's "Edmonton Center" riding can be considered a downtown riding. Last year during the election, I bicycled through 3 different ridings on my 15 minute bike-ride to work each day: Rahim Jaffer's Edmonton Strathcona riding, James Rajotte's Edmonton Leduc riding, and David Kilgour's Edmonton Beaumont riding. (while some farmer living 30 miles out of town was voting for the same candidates as me, people just a couple of blocks north or east had completely different lawn signs. go figure.) Aside from oddly-shaped ridings, I wouldn't take McLellan's victory as support for the Liberals among downtown voters. I'd take her victory as support for one of the highest-profile politicians in the country.

As for Edmonton Beaumont, it's nowhere near downtown. I don't attribute Kilgour's win to his party affiliation... I attribute it to the fact that he's David Freakin' Kilgour.

Watever hapless shmuck the Liberals parachute in to run in Kilgour's place is going to be obliterated. So will Anne McLellan, I suspect. She was much appreciated when she was Health Minister... but now she's Deputy Prime Minister, and I think that's probably a pretty thankless task. I don't think anybody actually knows or cares what Deputy PM does... its only merit is that it "sounds kinda important."

Anyway, this is rather off the topic of the thread, but I had to mention this. I've heard before of people refering to Edmonton as being an island of Liberalism in Alberta. Maybe in contrast to Calgary, but that's about it. Not at the federal level, anyway.

-k

[Argus]

Maybe.  Except what non-Ontario cities do you mean?  Vancouver, Edmonton, Winnipeg.  Most people in Montreal and Quebec City voted BQ.  And then, the Liberals did well in many rural areas in Ontario.

If you overlayed a population density map over the electoral map you would see a strong correlation between population density and Liberal ridings in every region in the country.

You could as easily say that if you overlaid a population denisity map showing where immigrants live and the Liberal vote you'd see a very strong correlation.