Prime Minister Layton?

[bigdude]

Prime Minister Layton?

Layton's perception among the public has undergone a "breathtaking shift," pollster Frank Graves says.

Just a year ago, Layton was considered as a too-slick salesman who voters "didn't really treat too seriously," said Graves, president of EKOS Research.

"He was doing okay but wasn't really ringing any bells. Now ... at the national level, (he) is the most trusted leader," said Graves.

"He has really, really turned things around. They (the NDP) are sitting in a much better position," he said.

The pollster believes the transformation has come largely in the last few months, as Layton has tried to put himself and his party above the angry politics that has consumed Parliament.

Layton's style is paying dividends. A poll of 1,203 Canadians showed that 36 per cent placed a high level of trust in the NDP leader, compared with 30 per cent for Martin and 26 per cent for Harper. Layton's approval rating has jumped significantly from February 2004 when it stood at 22 per cent.

One factor is Layton's big coup when he persuaded the Liberals last month to rewrite the budget, adding $4.6 billion in new money for foreign aid, housing and education while delaying tax breaks for corporations.

In return, Layton pledged the support of his 19-member caucus to try to keep the minority Liberal government alive through tonight's budget votes.

Public support for the NDP remains static at about 19 per cent. But the party is the second choice of 28 per cent of voters, far above the other parties. That factor, together with Layton's high trust numbers, could deliver a windfall for the NDP in the next election, Graves said.

"They could realistically double their seats. They could even do better. There's an outside scenario where the NDP could win government. It's hardly likely but it's not science-fiction any more," Graves said.

"They are unquestionably in the best position that the NDP have been since ... the mid '80s," he said.

Graves said the NDP could also capitalize on public frustration with the existing minority government. While voters remain reluctant to elect a majority government, most now want to see a formal alliance between parties to create a more stable Parliament, the poll showed.

"When people look about and say what sorts of alliances make sense, by far the most plausible, acceptable alliance is NDP and Liberal, particularly in Ontario," Graves said.

"That seems like a better idea than handing over the keys to any single party leader right now," he said.

But another factor in Layton's swelling approval is his change in style. NDP strategists insist there's been no media makeover. But arriving in Ottawa from Toronto city council in early 2003, Layton, the MP for Toronto-Danforth, was quick with a comment and gave the impression of trying too hard to make an impression.

Today, there's less bombast. His remarks are more considered, his tone serious, not shrill. In short, he's talking and acting more like a prime minister than a pit-bull politician.

"I think he seems much more relaxed in the job. I think he's very comfortable in it," said NDP MP Peter Stoffer (Sackville-Eastern Shore).

"I think what you've seen is someone who's come in here and tried to figure out the nuances of the big show," he said.

NDP MP Pat Martin (Winnipeg Centre) says Layton has tempered his enthusiasm with discipline and has "matured" as a leader.

"Jack's nature is to be excited and enthusiastic about things," said Martin, adding that since taking the top job, Layton has "slowed down and found a comfort zone. It resonates well in the public. I think we've easily got the best leader in Canada today."

For his part, Layton insists he hasn't changed. What's changed, he says, is the willingness of the Liberals to work with the NDP.

"For the first couple of months, there wasn't much response, there weren't many doors being opened," Layton said.

"Then circumstances changed in the House and the somewhat arrogant attitude we saw was being replaced by a realization that parties have to work together," Layton said.

"We're certainly getting positive feedback because people like the budget, they like the fact we're not playing games and we're just getting down to business," he said.

Martin concedes he was skeptical of Layton's efforts to negotiate budget improvements with the Liberal government.

"I'm ready to concede I was wrong. ... It really does give me something on the doorstep — a graphic illustration of what more NDP MPs can do."

Canadians are obviously tired of the bitter partisan politics exhibited by Canada's two leading political parties and appear on the threshhold of looking or something new. It seems that the Jack Layton New Democrats have the potential to really change things in Ottawa.

[Bro]

Get serious.

[Bryan]

Funniest thing I've read in a long while. Thanks for the chuckle.

If anything, the NDPs tenuous support is now going to be lessened. They basically held the Government for ransom, and demanded billions of dollars in foolish spending.

Nobody wanted an election now, but nobody wanted to have even more of their hard earned money to be taken from them in such an irresponsible way. The NDP forced MPs to hold their noses and vote for it in order to stave off an election.

[Newfie Canadian]

With all due respect, nope.

As I recall, the best the NDP ever did on the national level was 30 seats in the early 80's (1984?) under Ed Broadbent.

Having lived through Broadbent, and seen Layton, I honestly don't think Layton can get the party to 30 seats, especially with the Bloq possibly influencing the vote in other parts of the country (just by their very existence), something Broadbent didn't have to deal with.

[I miss Reagan]

I don't know Newf. I wouldn't underestimate the growth of socialist entitlement in Canada...

[Newfie Canadian]

Socialist entitlement is one thing IMR, but the NDP is too socially out there for the national voter.

[Argus]

I don't know Newf.  I wouldn't underestimate the growth of socialist entitlement in Canada...

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The thing is that even the bleeding heart liberals know that the NDP believes social entitlement means the socialists are entitled to most of your salary. As attractive as some of them might find some of the wierdo social schemes of the NDP they don't want to forego their mortgage payments so the NDP can build mansions for every welfare crack whore mother in the country.

[Adelle]

Only if he can be PM without the NDP being the government. I am old enough to know (just) what happened when the NDP became the government in BC, ON, SK, MAN. Deficit, debt and poor government. I am not saying that the NDP don't hold the moral high ground just that they don't have a good record when they actually become the government.

[I Miss Trudeau]

The thing is that even the bleeding heart liberals know that the NDP believes social entitlement means the socialists are entitled to most of your salary. As attractive as some of them might find some of the wierdo social schemes of the NDP they don't want to forego their mortgage payments so the NDP can build mansions for every welfare crack whore mother in the country.

Wow, having a bad day wittle Argie?

[I Miss Trudeau]

Only if he can be PM without the NDP being the government.  I am old enough to know (just) what happened when the NDP became the government in BC, ON, SK, MAN.  Deficit, debt and poor government.  I am not saying that the NDP don't hold the moral high ground just that they don't have a good record when they actually become the government.

The same sort of attack can be leveled at conservative and liberal governments, as well.

[ScottBrison]

Prime minister Layton.....

....When Hell freezes over.

[bigdude]

The fact that mainstream media are discussing the possibility of Jack Layton's New Democrats forming government, outways most of the comments here don't you think?

If you think Martin already has had problems, just watch and see what happens to him now. He has about as much credibility as Harper right now, and that ain't saying much. Two bigger losers, in their respective positions I don't think we have seen on the national scene for quite some time.

[Technocrat]

I would love if the NDP was in with official opposition status. IMHO the NDP would be far more of a constructive official opposition then Harper & crew.

[bigdude]

Canada is in a crisis because we have two right wing party leaders in Martin & Harper, which comprise both the government and the official opposition.

Until such time as that changes there is going to major discontent with, and in, Ottawa.

Come on do a little analysis and you can see what a circus we have acting out before us.

Lefty Layton propping up righty Martin, & righty Harper propping up lefty Duceppe!

[ScottBrison]

I would love if the NDP was in with official opposition status.  IMHO the NDP would be far more of a constructive official opposition then Harper & crew.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

We at least can agree on that.

[PatM]

Only if he can be PM without the NDP being the government.  I am old enough to know (just) what happened when the NDP became the government in BC, ON, SK, MAN.  Deficit, debt and poor government.  I am not saying that the NDP don't hold the moral high ground just that they don't have a good record when they actually become the government.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I cannot speak about other provinces but, I've lived in BC most of my life. I lived through the Socreds, NDP, Liberals etc, and I can say that the best two governments we had were the Socreds (Under Wacky - not Junior) and the NDP.

I'm not even an NDP fan - I just look at the real facts. The last NDP government gave us decent economic conditions, fairly balanced budgets, good average economic growth, and little decay of working class salaries (though they DID decay).

This current libral government immediately put us into BILLIONS of dollars in debt, crushed employment, homlessness has more than quadrupled, unemployment has been the worst in decades.

Sure, they CLAIM they created a booming economy that outstrips anything the NDP ever did but, have a look at Statistics Canada - they're lying through their teeth and the Asper Media (Canwest Global) keeps parroting the lies even when faced with unimpeachable evidence from Stats Canada.

BC Is indeed pulling out of the Liberal created recession - but only big business and the filthy rich are benefiting from it. Unemployment rates are falling MOSTLY because thousands of people are falling out of the "catchment" of unemployment statistics.

If you are on welfare, you are not unemployed. If you are homeless, you are not unemployed.

Check Stats Canada, spend a couple days looking at the real data. You'll see the NDP here was MUCH better than the Liberals - unless of course you're in big business or filthy rich.

[Rovik]

Only if he can be PM without the NDP being the government.  I am old enough to know (just) what happened when the NDP became the government in BC, ON, SK, MAN.  Deficit, debt and poor government.  I am not saying that the NDP don't hold the moral high ground just that they don't have a good record when they actually become the government.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

This is exactly what people say when they try to scare people from voting for the NDP. But guess what, some of the worst govts. have not been NDP. Case in point, Grant Devine's CONSERVATIVE govt ran 10 straight deficits. Here in Newfoundland we have has a barrage of both Liberal and Conservative governments running deficits since Confederation. And many more Liberal and Conservative govts in all parts of Canada have in the past ran deficits.

Let's face it. This is how Liberals and Conservatives have always tried to scare people into not voting NDP. And the sad thing is that many people have fallen for this deception.

If a NDP govt was in power nationally for 10 years and ran a deficit for 1, opponents would bring up the one year deficit and not mention 9 years of surplus.

The only way the NDP will ever stop their opponents from saying this would be to out-conservative the Conservatives. Of course, if they ever did this, they wouldn't be the NDP anymore.

[bigdude]

Battle still on, but leaders stall

Both Martin and Harper emerge from the turmoil a little smaller than when they entered it. Each is lucky not to have an obvious successor waiting in the wings.

Today, neither commands the respect and trust of a majority of Canadians. Martin lost ground by looking too eager to cling to office and Harper failed to thrive by coming across as too hungry for power.

At different times, each came perilously close to the credibility breaking point in their attempts to bend to the winds of political expediency.

Martin rewrote his budget at the stroke of an NDP pen.

He brokered billion-dollar deals with various provinces at the drop of a hat. (The others have already taken numbers and are now waiting their turn.)

He snatched a rookie MP from the Conservatives to turn her overnight into a senior cabinet minister.

Although he denies it, there is compelling evidence that patronage appointments were dangled in front of opposition MPs so as to lure them out of voting against the government.

Harper spent the spring blurring the lines between his Conservatives and the Liberals on just about every policy front, from child care to the environment. He shut down Parliament in petulant anger.

He allowed a fissure between him and a former leadership rival to grow into a divide, opening the way for the Liberal gambit that ultimately cost the Conservatives yesterday's confidence vote.

If an election had taken place this spring, both Martin and Harper would have had a hard time winning a viable government.

Contrast that with the third parties.

Today, more than ever, the Bloc Québécois stands head and shoulders above the pack in Quebec.

The frantic Liberal efforts of the past few weeks have only increased the sovereignist lead in the province.

In the rest of Canada, the NDP is on the rise, its leader Jack Layton the only moral victor of the whole episode.

What the Bloc and the NDP have had in common over the past stormy weeks is that, through all the manoeuvring, they never lost sight of who they were.

No one can presume the outcome of the next federal election.

As Chantel Hebert, one of Canada's mainstream medias pre-emminent commentators says anything can happen now.

I would surmise that when the dust settles the Layton New Democrats will start to shine even more amongst the Canadian electorate as they come to appreciate their first ever NDP engineered federal budget.