Lastest poll devastating for Liberal !

[Bakunin]

Here is the lastest poll, the result are clear... the Liberal will get wiped. the poll is from EKOS-La Presse-Toronto Star.

Tories 36,2%

Liberal 25%

NDP 20.5%

In quebec, they lose even more than what we could have imagined even the tories are more popular...

BQ 50%

Tories 16%

Liberal 15%

NDP 10%

In ontario, the tories take the lead.

Tories 40%

Liberal 33%

NDP 21%

The NDP takes the lead in BC, Manitoba and SK

The president of EKOS say that if there where election, the conservative would have a minority government. He say the ndp would have more deputy and in quebec he say the liberal would lose evrything (i doubt it ).

sry i only have the french version:

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/artic...2005,989618.php

The BQ said they will announce if they try to force election tuesday.

[August1991]

The Ekos Poll in English is here.

I am surprised that no one seems to have noticed that the Liberals' drop of about 10% seems to have been shared roughly equally by the Tories and the NDP. What does that mean?

This poll confirms that Kimmy was right and BD was wrong. Jean Brault's testimony changed people's minds in a way that previous Adscam news did not.

[Guest eureka]

August, I would suggest that the poll confirms only opinion based on misinformation. There is now good reason to suspect that Brault was lying, at least in part. When the dust settles, and some truth starts to come out, there may well be a backlash against the political opportunism that is all we have at the moment.

There is also the distinct possibility that there may be substantial shifts in opinion as people calm down and reflect a little more on more important consequences than the pilfering by a few fraud artists. Remeber that most now think that hundreds of millions of dollars have been misappropriated and that is not the case by a very long way: it may be only 1% of that and it will become apparent in time.

[August1991]

There is also the distinct possibility that there may be substantial shifts in opinion as people calm down and reflect a little more on more important consequences than the pilfering by a few fraud artists.

eureka, is that the Canada you want?

A Canada that tolerates "pilfering by a few fraud artists"?

[Guest eureka]

You know that is not what I am saying, August. There are, however, more important things.

This is a matter of trying to limit the possibilities for corruption in governance. It is not about the future of the country or the kind of society that we will have. You may have noticed that on one discussion I posted that one of the first acts by Chretien was to end the use of advertising agencies for party benefit. Obviously it did not work.

However, I think you are as aware as I am that this has been going on for a very long time and was not an invention of the Chretien government. This program merely gave the fraud artists a bigger field to play in for a time.

[August1991]

You know that is not what I am saying, August. There are, however, more important things.

True. I have probably exaggerated.

This is a matter of trying to limit the possibilities for corruption in governance. It is not about the future of the country or the kind of society that we will have.

Here, I disagree. Canada once again, I think, is at a crossroads. The money was used to buy federalist support in Quebec.

Imagine, for a second, the reaction in English Canada if it became known that George W. Bush had made payments to Stephen Harper to buy his support.

The problem is beyond a mere "use of advertising agencies for party benefit."

[kimmy]

The Ekos Poll in English is here.

I am surprised that no one seems to have noticed that the Liberals' drop of about 10% seems to have been shared roughly equally by the Tories and the NDP.  What does that mean?

What does that mean? I think a look at those little bar-graphs tells the story.

Among low-income earners, Liberal support has bled to the NDP. Among mid- and high-income earners, Liberal support has bled to the Tories.

Among federalist Quebecois, Liberal support has bled to the Conservatives. Among the "soft separatists", Liberal support has bled to the Bloc. It is particularly surprising that even in Quebec, the Conservatives are presently polling better than the Liberals. It's always been assumed that federalist Quebecois would have no choice but to vote Liberal, but perhaps that's not the case anymore.

For a long time the Liberals have won elections by occupying the biggest chunk of the centre... and right now their piece of the centre has shrunk a lot since the Feb 14 poll.

-kimmy

[The Terrible Sweal]

I am surprised that no one seems to have noticed that the Liberals' drop of about 10% seems to have been shared roughly equally by the Tories and the NDP. What does that mean?

In the same vein, I've heard the Greens are up 3% too.

Again, what we are seeing in these polls is a reflection of the form of the question: How would you vote today? People of all political pursuations who voted Liberal last time are just parking their support.

Meanwhile, the IPSoS Reid poll (Glob and Maul, this morning) has 87% saying they want the Report before an election.

52 say the Liberal party as an organization is not culpable.

And Martin leads Harper personally 48 to 46.

[The Terrible Sweal]

meanwhile, the provincial breakdown is astonishing!

NDP gained 13% in BC, Torys gained only 1.

In Ontario the Tory's are actually down 2% , NDP up 2.

And in Alberta? Tories DOWN 3, Liberal UP 8%.

Manitoa and Sask are adding 12 % for the NDP, with Tories down 8.

Based on these numbers we'd be looking at a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance.

[kimmy]

meanwhile, the provincial breakdown is astonishing!

NDP gained 13% in BC, Torys gained only 1.

In Ontario the Tory's are actually down 2% , NDP up 2.

And in Alberta? Tories DOWN 3, Liberal UP 8%.

Manitoa and Sask are adding 12 % for the NDP, with Tories down 8.

Based on these numbers we'd be looking at a Liberal minority with the NDP holding the balance.

If you're trying to gauge the full effect of the testimony, the more meaningful breakdown would probably be to compare this week's numbers to February, not to last week.

Nonetheless, I think it's an oversimplification to just look at percentages. In BC, for instance I think it's logical to assume that the urban ridings that went Liberal last election are now leaning NDP, while the Tories' rural ridings are still leaning Tory. Liberals could lose some of their 8 seats there; NDP could gain some of those 8 seats, Tories will likely not change. And so on.

The polls show a lot more people willing to consider the Tories than in the last election. And though people apparently prefer Martin 48% to 46%, that's a huge gain for Harper over last election, when people prefered Martin personally by double-digit margins. Either people just can't stand Martin, or Harper is having some success in combatting the "scary" image that people have tried to stick on him.

-kimmy

[Bro]

None of these polls make any difference,as we all know, the liberals will come out on top,smelling like roses and because the majority of Canadians aren't intelligent enough to realize that they have been had again by the mighty righteous liberals,and on election day, will once again reward the liberal corruption by voting for them,I would enen suggest that a liberal majority will be the outcome, even without the quecec votes.

[BQSupporter]

Another Liberal victory would be great for the separatist cause in Quebec. It will provide to every French-Canadian that Canada does not work. That English-Canadian are willing to allow the government that has shamed and embrassed Quebec back to power.

I have always believed that Canada was a farce. A nation put together who's regions and people have almost nothing in common whether they are in the West, Ontario, Quebec PEI.

The sooner Quebec leaves this farce of a nation, the better.

[Newfie Canadian]

That English-Canadian are willing to allow the government that has shamed and embrassed Quebec back to power.

All it proves is that there isn't a viable alternative on a national level.

Perhaps the CPC will change that.

Just as an aside, Quebec may be shamed and embarassed, but they should also be furious, along with the rest of us by the way.

[The Terrible Sweal]

Another Liberal victory would be great for the separatist cause in Quebec. ... the government that has shamed and embrassed Quebec ...

Well, my patience is wearing a little thin with this pretense of the shocked piety of Quebec.

Any Quebecois who is genuinely surprised to learn that there is corruption in government contracting must be descending from some particularly remote ivory tower. (Even the guys fresh off the timber trucks know better!)