Has the Trudeau government's trade strategy failed?

[turningrite]

Even MSM outlets are now hinting that Trudeau's trade strategy has likely failed. And this has happened even with broad consensus on the part of the Canadian economic elites, Ottawa's political elite and provincial governments. We were snookered by the U.S. and Mexico and it looks like we'll have to accept Trump's terms or fold up the NAFTA tent. To me, this reflects an utter failure in leadership on the part not only of the Trudeau government but also those who have enabled its approach. Is there any hope left on this front or should we now start planning for the inevitable end of the NAFTA regime? As Thomas Walkom noted in his column in today's Toronto Star, the Americans have demonstrated they're untrustworthy partners. He might have added that the Mexicans aren't much better although it's easier to recognize the difficult position they were/are in.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/08/29/why-sign-trade-deal-with-untrustworthy-partner.html

[bush_cheney2004]

Yes, Trudeau's strategy has failed, but for very different reasons.   NAFTA was never about the Americans being "trustworthy", as this is a very naive approach to international trade agreements.   It was comical to read the naive outrage in Canadian media that an ally who fought "side by side" at Normandy in 1944 would be so dastardly as to actually impose tariffs on steel and aluminum after threatening to do so for many months.   The Trudeau and Freeland Sunshine Band failed from the outset by focusing on a "feminist agenda" instead of the specific issues that the Americans cited as reasons that NAFTA must be re-negotiated or abandoned.

Trudeau also stood by a supply management political strategy that Canada had already relented on for the TPP, telegraphing weakness and vulnerability.

Lastly, Trudeau foolishly schemed with Mexico thinking that the Mexicans would put their own national interests second behind "trust" with Canada, which gets us right back to point #1...a naive, inexperienced team that brought a knife to a gun fight.

 

[capricorn]

This trade initiative has been an epic disaster on the part of Justin and co. Not surprising since from day one the Liberals and their operatives have failed to properly read Trump and his moods. This failed required first diplomatic step has impeded Canada's budding relationship with Trump. Trudeau stepped in it when he held a press conference immediately following the G7 in Charlevoix and criticized Trump's stance on NAFTA when he had lead Trump to believe they had reached an agreement in principle. So now Canada will probably pay the price and forced accept the crumbs that Trump will throw our way. Nice going Chairman Trudeau.

[turningrite]

8 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Yes, Trudeau's strategy has failed, but for very different reasons.   NAFTA was never about the Americans being "trustworthy", as this is a very naive approach to international trade agreements. 

 

Of course, the Americans are untrustworthy trading partners. My (now late) father, a businessman, was solidly opposed to the original FTA (which preceded the NAFTA regime) when it was being debated 30 years ago. He prophetically noted that one day the whole thing would end badly when (not if) an autocratic and nationalistic leader came to power south of the border. Well, look at what happened. The naive Trudeau government believed it could leverage Canadian connections in the U.S., a strategy that now appears to have failed. I think it's now time to pull the plug and move on. But maybe we should wait until a couple weeks before the midterms as I believe Canada is the largest foreign market for more than half of all U.S. states.

[bush_cheney2004]

The Globe and Mail is now reporting that Trudeau has relented on supply management, as most knew he would have to do sooner or later:

Quote

Ottawa is ready to make concessions to the Trump administration on Canada’s protected dairy market in a bid to save a key NAFTA dispute-settlement system, preserve safeguards for cultural industries and avert tougher pharmaceutical patent protections, The Globe and Mail has learned.

That compromise could end the year-old talks, but at a heavy cost. The federal government has committed more than $4-billion to the country’s dairy farmers to buy the lobby’s acquiescence on concessions in previous trade deals.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-ready-to-give-way-on-dairy-for-nafta-deal/

 

[bush_cheney2004]

3 minutes ago, turningrite said:

Of course, the Americans are untrustworthy trading partners. My (now late) father, a businessman, was solidly opposed to the original FTA (which preceded the NAFTA regime) when it was being debated 30 years ago. He prophetically noted that one day the whole thing would end badly when (not if) an autocratic and nationalistic leader came to power south of the border. Well, look at what happened. The naive Trudeau government believed it could leverage Canadian connections in the U.S., a strategy that now appears to have failed. I think it's now time to pull the plug and move on. But maybe we should wait until a couple weeks before the midterms as I believe Canada is the largest foreign market for more than half of all U.S. states.

 

This repeating narrative will not work....no U.S. state has the kind of export dependencies to Canada that rivals Ontario's to the USA (50%).   Average Americans are not quaking in their boots at the thought of a trade war with Canada.    Trump and the GOP are willing to pay off U.S. sectors that are impacted by countervailing tariffs.   Trump is also taking on China, the USA's #1 trading partner....so hardly is afraid of what Trudeau might do.

I agree with you that some Canadians thought that historical "connections" would have more sway, but that is just more naivete from Canada.   Hell, there are more Mexicans in the USA than Canadians, and Mexico was not so foolish to believe in such a fantasy.   Maybe Canada watches too much American television !

[Centerpiece]

56 minutes ago, turningrite said:

As Thomas Walkom noted in his column in today's Toronto Star, the Americans have demonstrated they're untrustworthy partners. He might have added that the Mexicans aren't much better although it's easier to recognize the difficult position they were/are in.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/08/29/why-sign-trade-deal-with-untrustworthy-partner.html

That Star article is as usual, shilling for the Liberals - giving Trudeau cover if our gong show government walks away. The MSM has been loathe to admit the incredible mess Trudeau has made of international relations, including trade.

[turningrite]

2 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

The Globe and Mail is now reporting that Trudeau has relented on supply management, as most knew he would have to do sooner or later:

 

Another G&M piece by Lawrence Martin notes how weak Canada's negotiating position has become. We've lost almost any leverage we might have had. It's either Trump's way or the highway now for Trudeau and Freeland. The Trudeau government and its enablers have failed to appease the Americans and to get a deal we'll have to accept our role as supplicants. My view is that we should simply withdraw from NAFTA talks and move on.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-us-mexico-double-cross-puts-canada-on-the-defensive/

[taxme]

28 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Yes, Trudeau's strategy has failed, but for very different reasons.   NAFTA was never about the Americans being "trustworthy", as this is a very naive approach to international trade agreements.   It was comical to read the naive outrage in Canadian media that an ally who fought "side by side" at Normandy in 1944 would be so dastardly as to actually impose tariffs on steel and aluminum after threatening to do so for many months.   The Trudeau and Freeland Sunshine Band failed from the outset by focusing on a "feminist agenda" instead of the specific issues that the Americans cited as reasons that NAFTA must be re-negotiated or abandoned.

Trudeau also stood by a supply management political strategy that Canada had already relented on for the TPP, telegraphing weakness and vulnerability.

Lastly, Trudeau foolishly schemed with Mexico thinking that the Mexicans would put their own national interests second behind "trust" with Canada, which gets us right back to point #1...a naive, inexperienced team that brought a knife to a gun fight.

 

Everything Trudeau does is a failure. 

[turningrite]

6 minutes ago, Centerpiece said:

That Star article is as usual, shilling for the Liberals - giving Trudeau cover if our gong show government walks away. The MSM has been loathe to admit the incredible mess Trudeau has made of international relations, including trade.

Walkom has been one of the few prominent MSM voices to take an objective view on the NAFTA imbroglio. He long ago said that Canada might be better off ditching the thing. We could instead pursue side deals on various sectors, like autos and steel, and seek WTO reform, which is a necessity in any case. And there's no longer any logic in concerning ourselves with Mexico's interests. Any deals on autos or other sectors should simply leave the Mexicans out of the loop.

Edited August 29, 2018 by turningrite

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, turningrite said:

Another G&M piece by Lawrence Martin notes how weak Canada's negotiating position has become. We've lost almost any leverage we might have had. It's either Trump's way or the highway now for Trudeau and Freeland. The Trudeau government and its enablers have failed to appease the Americans and to get a deal we'll have to accept our role as supplicants. My view is that we should simply withdraw from NAFTA talks and move on.

 

As I have stated many times, if Canada gets a reduced economic dependence on the USA out of this mess, Trump has done Canada a huge favour.

Trudeau will try to lick his wounds and try to limit the domestic political damage ahead of the 2019 election, but he began making mistakes before Trump's trade tantrums (e.g. TPP)

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, turningrite said:

... Any deals on autos or other sectors should simply leave the Mexicans out of the loop.

 

Too little...too late.   Mexico has already blown the doors off Canada (pun intended) for automotive production.  

Ontario's automotive sector was shrinking long before Trump came along.

[Argus]

19 minutes ago, turningrite said:

Of course, the Americans are untrustworthy trading partners. My (now late) father, a businessman, was solidly opposed to the original FTA (which preceded the NAFTA regime) when it was being debated 30 years ago. He prophetically noted that one day the whole thing would end badly when (not if) an autocratic and nationalistic leader came to power south of the border. Well, look at what happened. The naive Trudeau government believed it could leverage Canadian connections in the U.S., a strategy that now appears to have failed

You guys don't yet know what the agreement will be, of if it will be made. I don't like Trudeau's idiotic negotiating stance either, but NAFTA is still in effect, and there's nothing Trump can do about it. He'll need the US congress to remove it and that will be difficult if he doesn't have Canada involved in a new trade agreement to replace it with. That congress has been timid to stand out and say anything against him, but you'll notice he hasn't been able to push much through it, despite the Republican majority.

Edited August 29, 2018 by Argus

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, Argus said:

You guys don't yet know what the agreement will be, of if it will be made. I don't like Trudeau's idiotic negotiating stance either, but NAFTA is still in effect, and there's nothing Trump can do about it. He'll need the US congress to remove it and that will be difficult if he doesn't have Canada involved in a new trade agreement to replace it with.

 

So even with this, Canada is depending on a foreign government to save its bacon on NAFTA after Team Trudeau has screwed things up royally.

 

[turningrite]

20 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

Too little...too late.   Mexico has already blown the doors off Canada (pun intended) for automotive production.  

Ontario's automotive sector was shrinking long before Trump came along.

Ah, but you're missing the crucial point in all of this in that Canada's market for new vehicles remains larger than Mexico's. The auto manufacturers, including the American brands, will not want to sacrifice this market. Trump's crowd generally holds market share and power rather than production to be the most important element in trade discussions. Well, if so, Canada retains a very important bargaining chip vis-a-vis Mexico. Mexico jilted us at the alter, although its outgoing president was trying to appease us during his bizarre conversation with Trump the other day. At this stage, though why should we consider Mexico's interests in any future dealings we have with the slippery Americans? It's now everybody for themselves.

Edited August 29, 2018 by turningrite

[bush_cheney2004]

3 minutes ago, turningrite said:

Ah, but you're missing the crucial point in all of this in that Canada's market for new vehicles remains larger than Mexico's. The auto manufacturers, including the American brands, will not want to sacrifice that market. Trump's crowd generally holds market power to be the most important element in trade discussions. Well, if so, Canada retains a very important bargaining chip vis-a-vis Mexico.

 

Canada has no domestically owned auto makes...all are foreign, and their share of sales has not been reduced because Ontario has lost many plants/jobs.   What is Canada going to do, go back to building McLaughlins or Bricklins?   The best selling vehicle in Canada is the Ford F-150 pickup truck, built in the evil USA.

The Germans and Japanese also love Mexico for building autos...much more than Canada.

 

Quote

Mexico jilted us at the alter, although its outgoing president was trying to appease us during his bizarre conversation with Trump the other day. At this stage, though why should we consider Mexico's interests in any future dealings we have with the slippery Americans? It's now everybody for themselves.

 

C'mon...Mexico already gutted Canadian jobs with that NAFTA, low wage sucking sound.  

Trudeau was dumber than a bag of hammers to believe Mexico would roll over for Canada.

[turningrite]

20 minutes ago, Argus said:

You guys don't yet know what the agreement will be, of if it will be made. I don't like Trudeau's idiotic negotiating stance either, but NAFTA is still in effect, and there's nothing Trump can do about it. He'll need the US congress to remove it and that will be difficult if he doesn't have Canada involved in a new trade agreement to replace it with. That congress has been timid to stand out and say anything against him, but you'll notice he hasn't been able to push much through it, despite the Republican majority.

I'm aware of the role the U.S. Congress plays in this. Of course, things could well change in the midterms. Maybe if Canada announces it will withdraw because of Trump's intransigence we could play a role in pushing the GOP into a minority position in November.

[bush_cheney2004]

12 minutes ago, turningrite said:

I'm aware of the role the U.S. Congress plays in this. Of course, things could well change in the midterms. Maybe if Canada announces it will withdraw because of Trump's intransigence we could play a role in pushing the GOP into a minority position in November.

 

The Americans could be doing the same thing for Canada's 2019 elections by dishing the Liberals a huge loss on trade, except that we don't care which party wins in Canada.   Most Americans don't know, don't care, and don't care that they don't know about politics in Canada.

[turningrite]

17 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

1.) Canada has no domestically owned auto makes...all are foreign, and their share of sales has not been reduced because Ontario has lost many plants/jobs.   What is Canada going to do, go back to building McLaughlins or Bricklins?   The best selling vehicle in Canada is the Ford F-150 pickup truck, built in the evil USA.

2.) C'mon...Mexico already gutted Canadian jobs with that NAFTA, low wage sucking sound.  

 

1.) You're entirely missing the point. Canada does have domestic firms involved in the auto industry, and particularly in auto parts, even though it doesn't have domestically owned auto assembly firms. However, the main issue here is the relationship between market share and production. If market share dictates production, as Trumpistas generally hold to apply, Canada's case is stronger than is Mexico's. Market share was the basis of the old Auto Pact deal between Canada and the U.S., which preceded the FTA/NAFTA era. Whether the F-150 is assembled in the U.S. is irrelevant as in all likelihood much of the vehicle's content is produced elsewhere. This has generally become the case in the North American auto/vehicle industry.

2.) Mexico sucked jobs out of both the U.S. and Canada, which is what corporate investors intended from the get-go. That sucking sound is in large measure what got Trump elected. Why Canada has been cast as a baddie seems to have more to do with Trump's bizarre ego than anything else. Although he claims otherwise, there's valid reason to believe the guy is a wingnut. At least he's demonstrated the original opponents of the FTA/NAFTA regime to be correct in that his behavior casts the U.S. an unstable and unreliable partner as well as an inferior democracy. These days its political system is focused on the weird antics of a personality worthy of leadership only in a failed state.

Edited August 29, 2018 by turningrite

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, turningrite said:

1.) You're entirely missing the point. Canada does have domestic firms involved in the auto industry, and particularly in auto parts, even though it doesn't have domestically owned auto assembly firms. However, the main issue here is the relationship between market share and production. If market share dictates production, as Trumpistas generally hold to apply, Canada's case is stronger than does Mexico. Market share was the basis of the old Auto Pact deal between Canada and the U.S., which preceded the FTA/NAFTA era. Whether the F-150 is built in the U.S. is irrelevant as in all likelihood the assembly is done in the U.S. and much of the vehicle's content is produced elsewhere. This has generally become the case in the North American auto/vehicle industry.

 

Don't let the facts get in the way...85% of Canadian auto production is exported to the USA.   Country of origin content rules is one of the NAFTA issues that Trump went after and seemingly has won. 

Lowest cost producer will win in the end, and Canada is highest NA cost.   Auto sector was dying long before Trump.

 

Quote

2.) Mexico sucked jobs out of both the U.S. and Canada, which is what corporate investors intended from the get-go. That sucking sound is in large measure what got Trump elected. Why Canada has been cast as a baddie seems to have more to do with Trump's bizarre ego than anything else. Although he claims otherwise, there's valid reason to believe the guy is a wingnut. At least he's demonstrated the original opponents of the FTA/NAFTA regime to be correct in that his behavior casts the U.S. an unstable and unreliable partner as well as an inferior democracy. These days its political system is focused on the weird antics of a personality worthy of leadership only in a failed state.

 

Sure....sour grapes and recriminations after the love has been lost.   The Americans went on to own 50% of Canada's manufacturing base after NAFTA, before Trump had divorced his 17th wife.   Other presidents have hammered Canada on softwood lumber...were they "wingnuts" too ?

 

[turningrite]

4 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

1.) Don't let the facts get in the way...85% of Canadian auto production is exported to the USA.  

2.) Sure....sour grapes and recriminations after the love has been lost.   The Americans went on to own 50% of Canada's manufacturing base after NAFTA, before Trump had divorced his 17th wife.   Other presidents have hammered Canada on softwood lumber...were they "wingnuts" too ?

 

1.) Again, you're missing the point. We're talking about the power of market share here, which is the holy grail to Trumpistas. Mexico can continue producing cars for the U.S. market but if Canada says it won't take them the auto producers will have to find a work-around. Auto production won't disappear from Canada as long as the big producers want access to the Canadian market, which remains larger than its Mexican counterpart.

2.) Canadians have long had an conflicted relationship with the U.S., so maybe it's our time to move to a different economic model. The U.S. is a declining country in terms of general global importance and wealth anyway.

Edited August 29, 2018 by turningrite

[Centerpiece]

1 hour ago, turningrite said:

 As Thomas Walkom noted in his column in today's Toronto Star, the Americans have demonstrated they're untrustworthy partners. He might have added that the Mexicans aren't much better although it's easier to recognize the difficult position they were/are in.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/08/29/why-sign-trade-deal-with-untrustworthy-partner.html

Sort of like how Trudeau sabotaged the TPP........

Quote

 

Danang Vietnam: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sabotaged the endorsement of a pact to salvage a multibillion-dollar, 11-nation Pacific Rim trade deal at the last minute, surprising leaders of the other nations, including Australia's Malcolm Turnbull................

Mr Trudeau failed to show up at a meeting late on Friday that was set to officially revive the agreement.

"There were a lot of unhappy leaders left sitting there," said an official who was in the meeting.

"Everyone was screwed," he said.

 

Link: https://www.smh.com.au/world/canadas-pm-justin-trudeau-sabotages-transpacific-partnership-shocking-leaders-20171110-gzj866.html

[bush_cheney2004]

9 minutes ago, turningrite said:

1.) Again, you're missing the point. We're talking about the power of market share here, which is the holy grail to Trumpistas. Mexico can continue producing cars for the U.S. market but if Canada says it won't take them the auto producers will have to find a work-around. Auto production won't disappear from Canada as long as the big producers want access to the Canadian market, which remains larger than its Mexican counterpart.

 

This is pure fantasy...boycotting all American and/or Mexican made cars and trucks is much harder than boycotting Heinz ketchup and mustard.   If Canada wants to sell in the USA, then it must build it in the USA...see how that silly game works ?    U.S. automakers went into Canada to beat Canadian tariffs that did not apply to Commonwealth nations....EMD London was NEVER Canadian owned....and now it is long gone.

 

Quote

2.) Canadians have long had an conflicted relationship with the U.S., so maybe it's our time to move to a different economic model. The U.S. is a declining country in terms of general global importance and wealth anyway.

 

Yeah, the U.S. is collapsing before our eyes...will fail any day now.   Time for Canada to find another host to feed on.

Canada has such tough luck....rejected by Britain....screwed by the Americans.   

Edited August 29, 2018 by bush_cheney2004

[turningrite]

6 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

 

1.) This is pure fantasy...boycotting all American and/or Mexican made cars and trucks is much harder than boycotting Heinz ketchup and mustard.   If Canada wants to sell in the USA, then it must build it in the USA...see how that silly game works ?    U.S. automakers went into Canada to beat Canadian tariffs that did not apply to Commonwealth nations....EMD London was NEVER Canadian owned....and now it is long gone.

2.) Yeah, the U.S. is collapsing before our eyes...will fail any day now.   Time for Canada to find another host to feed on.

1.) You're ignoring the real issue and changing the channel here.

2.) What I implied is that U.S. prestige and and influence are declining. I think there's a lot of evidence of this. I believe that earlier this week France's Macron told Europeans that as the U.S. is no longer a reliable ally Europe will have to formulate its own security policies and negotiate on its own with the Russians. The dominoes are falling. Who are Trump's allies? Putin, Kim, Duterte, the House of Saud? The rest of the world is dropping him like a hot potato, particularly in the democratic West. Americans had better hope the damage isn't permanent. A piece published a couple days ago by the conservative-leaning Washington Examiner, 'Our allies abroad are realizing we've become unreliable', noted Macron's comments and the general decline in American global influence in the Trump era.

Outside of the U.S., Trump's MAGA motto is increasing transforming into Make America Go Away. The late Sen. John McCain apparently believed America would renew itself and recover from Trump. Maybe. Maybe not.

 

[bush_cheney2004]

2 hours ago, turningrite said:

2.) What I implied is that U.S. prestige and and influence are declining. I think there's a lot of evidence of this.

 

Compared to what ?   Post WW2 ?  Post Cold War ?  

Do you long for the good old days when Canada could rest easy behind the USA's skirt and "trust" the American economy for salvation ?

The world is changing, just as it always has.    Trump is right to criticize Canadian and Euro deadbeat NATO members.

Others note that Canada and Europe have nothing else to run to....they still need the Americans, led by the Ugliest American, Donald Trump.

 

Quote

Outside of the U.S., Trump's MAGA motto is increasing transforming into Make America Go Away. The late Sen. John McCain apparently believed America would renew itself and recover from Trump. Maybe. Maybe not.

 

Senator McCain is dead, and so is the old Republican guard that Donald Trump destroyed in 2016.   Even President Obama criticized Europe/Canada and pivoted away to China/Pacific Rim.

America doesn't exist to fulfill your old hegemon expectations for the USA in Canada.

Edited August 30, 2018 by bush_cheney2004