Latest Federal Opinion Poll

[newbie]

Funny thing about polls, Ipsos-Reid shows Martin at 37, Harper, 27, and Layton 17.

http://www.canadawebpages.com/pc-editorial...ditorLink=ipsos

Poll taken between Sept 27- 29/05

[shoop]

On the other hand, if Harper plays nice in the fall an focuses on getting some of his platform passed by the Liberal minority gov't before a election in the Spring 2006 then I think the CPC has a chance of getting a minority or even a majority because a lot of people are looking for someone who can offer a positive vision for change.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Like Harper played nice all summer? Despite taking hits for it at the time Harper's BBQ tour looks like it actually did pay off. Can he stay on a positive message during the heat of an election? History tends to prove that is a losing strategy during a general.

Why would Harper want to get some of his platform passed with this government? The time is now for the CPC to strike. What would they honestly gain by giving Dithers et. al a free pass for the fall session? Do you honestly think the Liberals would let the CPC pass anything of significance to hang their hats on before the next election?

The current tendency among conservative supporters to insult and belittle people who are ideologically inclined to vote Liberal will ensure that those voters keep voting Liberal. I really hope that the CPC figures this reality out soon.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hmmm, by the nature of your comment you might be attempting to protect yourself from having to support your 'unique' assertion. However, there are a number of faults with it I will deal with politely and appropriately.

1. It truly does go both ways. How often do some Liberals/NDs/socialists refer to the CPC as Reform/Reform in drag/you pick the derogatory name or CPC supporters as fascists/rednecks/hicks?

2. I don't really think the mindset you talk about really exists. Personally I support the CPC because I think a government with more of a focus on the economy, and less intrusion into the personal lives of Canadians are good things. Sure CPC supporters get taunted by ND and Liberal supporters (it also goes the other way around), but I would never choose to cast my ballot just because a supporter of a different political party attacked me and my beliefs. I have been in party policy meetings, should I quit the party because other members attacked my proposals?

3. There is a difference between supporters of a party and the party itself. If the CPC "figured out" your "reality" how would the party go about stopping its supporters from "insulting and belittling" those who are ideologically inclined to vote Liberal? They couldn't, so why even think about it...

[Riverwind]

Why would Harper want to get some of his platform passed with this government? The time is now for the CPC to strike. What would they honestly gain by giving Dithers et. al a free pass for the fall session?

How about convincing Canadians that the CPC has some ideas on how to govern the country? In any case, I did not say anything about a 'free pass'. However any sort of detente would be better than the dysfunctional parliament in spring. I am surprised that conservative supporters are still stuck on the election at all costs approach given how negative the public response was in the spring.

Do you honestly think the Liberals would let the CPC pass anything of significance to hang their hats on before the next election?

They let the NDP pass some of its agenda. They don't want an election and the CPC is the only party that can ensure that one will not be called. A smart strategist could make the situation work for conservatives without an election.

3. There is a difference between supporters of a party and the party itself. If the CPC "figured out" your "reality" how would the party go about stopping its supporters from "insulting and belittling" those who are ideologically inclined to vote Liberal? They couldn't, so why even think about it...

You are correct to point out that mud flies in all directions. However, I was thinking more of CPC candidates that seem to be unable to speak more than 10 words without using the word corruption. The CPC needs to attract the approx 10% of the population that has voted Liberal in the past but would never vote NDP. This group of people has already decided that the sponsorship scandal is not that big a deal and an election campaign focused on it likely going to convince them to stick with the Liberals.

In other words, CPC need to move beyond sponsorship and start presenting a positive vision for the country.

[shoop]

How about convincing Canadians that the CPC has some ideas on how to govern the country?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harper was out selling his vision all summer. What about those TV ads in Ontario? While Harper was getting bashed for being ineffective and wasting his time this summer he was out doing exactly what you said he should.

They let the NDP pass some of its agenda.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Considering that the tax cuts the NDP got "passed" have already been re-introduced, Jacko sold his soul for a relative pittance. A couple billion for affordable housing, hmmm the man's soul had gotta be worth more than that.

A smart strategist could make the situation work for conservatives without an election.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What would be worth it?

You are correct to point out that mud flies in all directions. However, I was thinking more of CPC candidates that seem to be unable to speak more than 10 words without using the word corruption.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

One example, please since Harper started re-directing the tone this summer? Anything in September, you can actually ponit to?

In other words, CPC need to move beyond sponsorship and start presenting a positive vision for the country.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Already started with the aforementioned TV ads.

[August1991]

Shoop, many people (and some are posters here) believe that if Harper became PM, Canada would cease to be Canada because the sky would collapse and life as we know it would be irrevocably changed.

I have met such people in Quebec (they believed the world would end with the election of the PQ) and in other countries. They are nervous nellies and there is little to be done except tolerate them. Their desire for security usually leads to greater problems just as an unbending building in an earthquake zone leads to greater destruction.

Change is normal. This Liberal government must go. As the election draws near and more Canadians realize this, we will hear more dire scenarios and/or wishful thinking about how the inevitable can be avoided.

In the last election, Canadian voters just before voting day, particularly in Ontario, hesitated and decided to give the Liberals one last chance. This story with Dingwall, all the Gomery stories, Brault and the rest, Martin's pleading for another chance, his deal with the NDP - all of it together - have been too much. This time, there will be no second chance for the Liberals.

Maybe I'm wrong, but let's wait and see.

[Riverwind]

Shoop, many people (and some are posters here) believe that if Harper became PM, Canada would cease to be Canada because the sky would collapse and life as we know it would be irrevocably changed.

If Harper is not good enough for Quebequers why should he be good enough for Ontarians? If Quebequers voted for the CPC then the Liberals would have been long gone. Your thesis that Ontario is to blame for the Liberal hegmony is extremely flawed.

[Riverwind]

In other words, CPC need to move beyond sponsorship and start presenting a positive vision for the country.

Already started with the aforementioned TV ads.

The ads are a start but it all depends on the rhetoric we hear from Harper in parliment. Is he going to obstruct parliment in an attempt to 'put the government out of its misery' or will he be reasonable co-operative? Last thing I heard from him seemed to indicate he was planning to bring down the gov't as soon as possible. If he does that then all of his effort to build his image will be wasted.

[shoop]

Last thing I heard from him seemed to indicate he was planning to bring down the gov't as soon as possible. If he does that then all of his effort to build his image will be wasted.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Why?

Does anyone actually believe the Liberals will be successful in making the timing of the election an issue? 16 plus months for a minority government is a fair amount by historical precedent.

[Riverwind]

Does anyone actually believe the Liberals will be successful in making the timing of the election an issue? 16 plus months for a minority government is a fair amount by historical precedent.

Depends on many things. If Harper wants to make the election about Gomery then he would look pretty silly forcing an election before the Gomery report comes out. If he manages to force an election where the Nov 1 report comes out in the middle of the campaign then you could see that report delayed till Jan.

[Canuck E Stan]

Spar,

The ads are a start but it all depends on the rhetoric we hear from Harper in parliment. Is he going to obstruct parliment in an attempt to 'put the government out of its misery' or will he be reasonable co-operative? Last thing I heard from him seemed to indicate he was planning to bring down the gov't as soon as possible. If he does that then all of his effort to build his image will be wasted.

"it all depends on the rhetoric we hear from Harper"

"Is he going to obstruct parliment "

" will he be reasonable co-operative"

Whatever Harper does,you will make a point of finding a negative thing to convince yourself he's not worth supporting.

.Your looking for reasons and your arsenal is loaded.

Only Harper gets this kind of response,not Martin,not Layton.

let me help you with a few more:

He's an angry white guy

He doesn't know how to dress

He sits in his office all day

He's not a people person

He has a hidden agenda.ect. ect. ect.

then all of his effort to build his image will be wasted

We're not voting for Canadian idle here, I believe he has the ability to run this country into a more democratic state,you don't.

You don't like the guy, so quite pretending you might give him a chance because you have found a multitude of reasons not to.

And given the odds that there only has to be one reason that will turn you off, you'll never even consider Harper.

[Riverwind]

You don't  like the guy, so quite pretending you might give him a chance because you have found a multitude of reasons not to.

If Harper cuts some deals for tax cuts or similar policies and does not force an election until spring then he will likely get my vote - even if I think he has the charm of a wet rag. If he forces an early election and spends the entire campaign whining about corruption then I will likely stick with the Liberals.

[newbie]

deleted

[newbie]

One example, please since Harper started re-directing the tone this summer? Anything in September, you can actually ponit to?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually Shoop, Harper had this to say on Sept. 23, "We'll have an election the day the NDP decides it doesn't want to support Liberal corruption in the House of Commons any longer.''

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...319/?hub=Canada

And their current webpage, http://www.conservative.ca/english/index.asp has a story entitiled "more liberal corruption" Seems like Harper is back to the same tired old story.

[Guest eureka]

August, every new government changes a country irrevocably. The question would be whether the change is for the better or worse.

People who oppose Harper are not "nervous nellies." In general, they are those who do not want to see the nation continuing to ride the handbasket to Hell. That is where the last Conservative government took us. Under, and since, Mulroney, economic performance in this country has declined; social conditions have worsened; sovereignty has been tossed away.

Harper has the avowed determination to give us more of the same. The idea that he has softened his views does not fit the character of the man. He is a policy "wonk" and an ideologue and cannot change his spots. All pronouncements from him now are merely his attempt to play politics; to deceive. That makes him untrustworthy as well as a dangerous simpleton.

[shoop]

Under, and since, Mulroney, economic performance in this country has declined; social conditions have worsened; sovereignty has been tossed away.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What?

Hmmm, Mulroney laid the regulatory groundwork for the boom of the 1990s.

Your assertion that the "economic performance" has declined under and since Mulroney shows your true stripes and what a simpleton you are.

Y'all aren't dangerous cause you have no power, or realistic chance to gain any.

[Guest eureka]

Why don't you just look at the comparisons? I have given them often enough.

You know that you do not contribute very much with your constant needling of others. You cry wolf in your self righteous plaints of having been insulted where there are no insults. Yet you contnually make disparaging remarks about others.

[shoop]

Why don't you just look at the comparisons? I have given them often enough.

You know that you do not contribute very much with your constant needling of others. You cry wolf in your self righteous plaints of having been insulted where there are no insults. Yet you contnually make disparaging remarks about others.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Your economic argument is false. Please explain it. Oh I get it, attacking me personally is easier and 'saves' you from having to defend your incorrect statement.

[August1991]

Lib 36

CPC 30

NDP 19

BQ 11

The Pollara survey, conducted between Sept. 26 and Oct. 2, asked 2,363 participants: "If a federal election were held today, which party would you most likely vote for?"

Among decided voters, 36 per cent said they would vote Liberal while 30 per cent liked the Conservatives. Another 19 per cent said they would support the NDP, while 11 per cent favoured the Bloc Quebecois. Sixteen per cent were undecided.

--

In Ontario, the Liberals remained well ahead of the pack, at 42 per cent decided support. The Conservatives were at 32 per cent.

"The numbers in Ontario have not changed (from previous polls)," said Marzolini.

"There's still a 10-point gap between Martin and Harper in both Toronto and also outside of Toronto in the rural areas."

However, the Liberals continued to trail badly in Quebec, where Gilles Duceppe's Bloc Quebecois maintained a commanding lead nearing 50 per cent, with the Grits well below 30 per cent.

CanWest

[Riverwind]

In Ontario, the Liberals remained well ahead of the pack, at 42 per cent decided support. The Conservatives were at 32 per cent.

An interesting comment from the same poll:

"The real question here is British Columbia," said Marzolini, predicting that, if a federal election were held today, B.C. could for the first time determine who becomes prime minister.

"It really is going to be a huge battleground."

The survey suggested a near three-way split in decided support in B.C., with 35 per cent for the Liberals, 33 for the Conservatives and 27 for the NDP.

[shoop]

Since you called it interesting I assume you believe the veracity of that poll.

That poll represents a 2.7 % drop for Liberal support and a half point gain for the Conservatives.

Given how tight many races were in 2004 that easily represents a five seat gain in Ontario alone for the Conservatives.

Hmm, how many more seats will they gain after Gomery?

[August1991]

Strategic Counsel poll:

The poll found that, if an election were held today, the Liberals would get 38 per cent of the vote, up one percentage point from the 2004 election, while the Conservatives would take 25 per cent, down almost five points from 2004.

The New Democrats are supported by 15 per cent of voters, about the same as 2004, but down from the 19-per-cent range where they hovered during the spring and early summer.

In seat-rich Ontario, the Liberals have a substantial lead of 50 per cent to 30 per cent for the Tories and 12 per cent for the NDP.

The survey of 1,000 Canadians was conducted Oct. 6 to Oct. 13 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

....

The poll also has some sobering news for Prime Minister Paul Martin in Quebec, where Liberal support has softened, despite the popularity of the appointment of Michaëlle Jean as Governor-General.

The Liberals dropped to 25 per cent in the province from 31 per cent in August and 34 per cent in the 2004 vote.

By contrast, the Bloc Québécois leads with 57 per cent. Support for both the Conservatives and the NDP is in single digits.

G & M

I think the real news here is the strength of the BQ and the weak position of the Liberals in Quebec. It is a small sample but the evidence is there. The Liberals are down from their support in Quebec in the last federal election.

In all likelihood, Boisclair will become PQ leader and then become PM of Quebec and then will hold a referendum. The sponsorship scandal has caused a shift in support for sovereignty.

----

Also, the additional Liberal support across Canada seems to be coming from the NDP. The next federal election will be a referendum on Harper in English Canada, with the NDP and the Liberals competing for the No votes.

I suspect that Harper's 58%/60% unfavourables are hard. These people don't like Harper. They will vote for any party other than the Conservatives.

[tml12]

Strategic Counsel poll:

The poll found that, if an election were held today, the Liberals would get 38 per cent of the vote, up one percentage point from the 2004 election, while the Conservatives would take 25 per cent, down almost five points from 2004.

The New Democrats are supported by 15 per cent of voters, about the same as 2004, but down from the 19-per-cent range where they hovered during the spring and early summer.

In seat-rich Ontario, the Liberals have a substantial lead of 50 per cent to 30 per cent for the Tories and 12 per cent for the NDP.

The survey of 1,000 Canadians was conducted Oct. 6 to Oct. 13 and is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

....

The poll also has some sobering news for Prime Minister Paul Martin in Quebec, where Liberal support has softened, despite the popularity of the appointment of Michaëlle Jean as Governor-General.

The Liberals dropped to 25 per cent in the province from 31 per cent in August and 34 per cent in the 2004 vote.

By contrast, the Bloc Québécois leads with 57 per cent. Support for both the Conservatives and the NDP is in single digits.

G & M

I think the real news here is the strength of the BQ and the weak position of the Liberals in Quebec. It is a small sample but the evidence is there. The Liberals are down from their support in Quebec in the last federal election.

In all likelihood, Boisclair will become PQ leader and then become PM of Quebec and then will hold a referendum. The sponsorship scandal has caused a shift in support for sovereignty.

----

Also, the additional Liberal support across Canada seems to be coming from the NDP. The next federal election will be a referendum on Harper in English Canada, with the NDP and the Liberals competing for the No votes.

I suspect that Harper's 58%/60% unfavourables are hard. These people don't like Harper. They will vote for any party other than the Conservatives.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The day Harper won the leadership vote I knew that it was the greatest thing that ever happened to the LPC.

I really think CPC with Belinda could have defeated Liberals in June 2004.

[shoop]

Strange poll that one. The only party it is really good for is the BQ.

Liberals are back to where they were on the day of the election in 2004. A day that will not be considered a success in the history of the party. The Liberals would probably get in the 130s again, in terms of seats again, gaining in Ontario and BC, while losing seats in Quebec.

Bad news for the CPC, but is there any taking solace in the fact that it represents the base of their support? Realistically those poll numbers would look at them losing 5-10 seats.

While the NDs are only slightly down nationally, the distressing thing for them is the Ontario numbers. With 18% of the Ontario vote in 2004 they won 7 seats. Sitting at 12 percent now they win maybe 3.

Bloc is looking really good from this poll. Maybe break into the 60s?

Same dysfunctional parliament. If these numbers hold look for both Harper and Martin to have been replaced by this time next year.

[Guest eureka]

I wonder whether it really is good for the Bloc. Should they pick up more Quebec seats ( I still think the Liberals will) they will be expected to actually do something instead of the negativity that is all they are about.

Then, if the Liberals are down in Quebec numbers but up overall, it suggests that they are going to pick up seats elsewhere. Given the riding ratios, that may mean that they will pick up more than they will lose.

[shoop]

Given the riding ratios, that may mean that they will pick up more than they will lose.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Never heard the term 'riding ratios' before. What does that mean?