Ukraine

[August1991]

I have started a new thread on Ukraine because this election is perhaps crucial (I hope not) for Eastern Europe.

With luck, Ukraine will be Georgia deja-vu allover again as the G&M's Mackinnon intends. (He's a decent journalist who means well.) An old-time Soviet leader will be thrown out.

Well, Shevardnadze is no Kuchma. But then, Ukraine is not Georgia and Lvov is not Donetsk.

Canada could make a difference in Ukraine. Well, Canada used to be able make a difference. Not anymore. Now, Canada's opinion about Ukraine weighs as much as Uruguay's opinion.

I create this new thread for any other opinions about Ukraine, objective or otherwise. (Previous Ukraine threads here seemed connected to the US status in the world.)

What will happen to ordinary people in the Ukraine, Russian speakers or not?

Will this country split up?

[Choke]

I think Moscow will get its way one way or another. Either Ukraine will become a Russian satellite or eastern Ukraine will join Russia. I think the latter is more likely.

[maplesyrup]

Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned. It is no longer up for debate.

This should assure him of a resounding victory in the next vote.

[maplesyrup]

Black Sea Intrigue

After the Soviet Union broke up, Russia negotiated a deal with Ukraine to berth 250 ships that make up the fleet in Sevastopol. If Ukrainian nationalists, revved up by anti-Russian fervor, led by the U.S. and Western European countries, tell the Russians to remove the fleet, war is a serious possibility. According to one survey, this fleet, in 1995, had 48,000 military personnel, 14 subs, 31 surface ships, 43 patrol craft, 125 combat aircraft, and 85 helicopters. The Russians also have one coastal defense division, with 175 tanks, 450 armored infantry fighting vehicles, and 72 artillery pieces. In addition, Russia has major construction facilities along the Black Sea and runs research stations for all sorts of new ship and aircraft development.

The consequences here are much more serious than perhaps a lot of us realize.

[kimmy]

To expand on what Maplesyrup mentioned, here's the Star article:

Yushchenko poisoned, likely intentionally.

"There is no doubt about the fact that Mr. Yushchenko's disease has been caused by a case of poisoning by dioxin," Zimpfer said.

The 50-year-old opposition leader first fell ill in September and was rushed to the Vienna hospital. He resumed campaigning later in the month but his mysterious illness had left his face pockmarked and ashen.

Yushchenko also suffered back pain, acute pancreatitis and nerve paralysis on the left side of his face.

He has accused Ukrainian authorities of trying to poison him ahead of Ukraine's presidential vote - an allegation they have denied.

"We suspect involvement of an external party, but we cannot answer as to who cooked what or who was with him while he ate," said Zimpfer, who added that the tests showed the dioxin had been taken orally.

I thought stuff like this only happened in James Bond movies...

-kimmy

[August1991]

By all accounts, Kuchma is perfectly capable of ordering this "hit". He was taped ordering the disapearance of a journalist, Gyorgi Gongadze:

Gongadze's headless corpse was found half-buried in a forest near Kiev in November... The Melnychenko tapes seem to contain enough dirt on Kuchma to launch a dozen impeachment trials. Among other explosive revelations, Kuchma is allegedly heard telling security officials that Gongadze should be made to "disappear,"

Fred Weir article

Incidentally, the tape transcripts show the typical Soviet style of the chief swearing like a sailor and the underlings speaking politely.

IMV, a major undercurrent in this election is that the territory of modern Ukraine is half Russian and half Ukrainian. The vote splits along ethnic lines.

[Guest LLL]

IMV, a major undercurrent in this election is that the territory of modern Ukraine is half Russian and half Ukrainian. The vote splits along ethnic lines.

Isn't it funny how after so much ado about the Ukraine not one major Canadian newspaper wished them a Happy New Year?

Think about it, Yushchenko!!!

[Guest eureka]

I did not see any messages of goodwill to Andorra or Monaco either. There seem to be about 208 forgotten countries.

[kimmy]

The Ukraine did seem to disappear rather quickly from our headlines; perhaps a sign that things are back to normal. As the saying goes, "no news is good news"; if your name is on the front page of the newspaper, more often than not it's because there's trouble.

-kimmy

{and if your middle name is in a newspaper article, that's a very bad sign indeed }

[August1991]

Bump.

[Big Guy]

The current crisis in the Ukraine is the Crimea - not the "old" Ukraine. In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev gave Ukraine a gift: Crimea. The people of Crimea have never had the opportunity to choose. Until they do, there will be no peace.

The major problem that I see coming is that the EU has always preached austerity and will impose those policies on the Ukraine while the Russians are prepared to give $billions to that area for stability. A future problem may be that the minority Tartars have the potential of creating mischief and havoc for a "free" Russian Crimea.

[Argus]

The current crisis in the Ukraine is the Crimea - not the "old" Ukraine. In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev gave Ukraine a gift: Crimea. The people of Crimea have never had the opportunity to choose. Until they do, there will be no peace.

The major problem that I see coming is that the EU has always preached austerity and will impose those policies on the Ukraine while the Russians are prepared to give $billions to that area for stability. A future problem may be that the minority Tartars have the potential of creating mischief and havoc for a "free" Russian Crimea.

What price freedom? There is no freedom in Russia. There is no free press or media, and no rule of law. There are serfs and there are the oligarchs. Maybe there will be more short-term economic instability in Ukraine going with the west, but if they make the right decisions the country will be immensely better off in ten years. As Russians, they will simply be serfs, living in shacks while the rich party in New York, London and Dubai

[Big Guy]

I understand and respect your opinion but I believe that freedom is not the most important factor for many people in world. According to Maslow's hierarchy of needs, the satisfaction of physiological and safety needs come well before freedom.

I was surprised years ago, after the dismantlement of the Soviet Union, a number of previously “suppressed” Europeans were marching and supporting going back to Soviet rule. They were dismayed by the exponentially increasing incidence of crime and violence. They were prepared to give up certain freedoms for the previous security of the oppressive state.

I am not convinced that the “right decisions” necessarily lead to happiness for all.

Those 200,000 civilian dead in Iraq and about 100,000 in Afghanistan are certainly not better off now than they were before their war for freedom.

Edited March 7, 2014 by Big Guy

[Argus]

I understand and respect your opinion but I believe that freedom is not the most important factor for many people in world. According to Maslow's hierarchy of needs, the satisfaction of physiological and safety needs come well before freedom.

Perhaps, but it's not like the Crimea was a hotbed of extremist violence before. From what I've read all media in the Crimea which is opposed in any way to the Russian takeover has been suppressed. All the Russian speakers are getting is Russian television telling them how endangered they are.

Those 200,000 civilian dead in Iraq and about 100,000 in Afghanistan are certainly no better off now than they were before their war for freedom.

A lot of people died in the US revolution, too, so you could have said exactly the same about that.

Edited March 7, 2014 by Argus