Trudeau 'revenue neutral' tax changes - not even close

[Smallc]

Ahh, yes it is.....and it is an unsustainable house of cards.........contrasted with the far more sustainable growth in Seattle, based off of something real.

I'm pretty sure the entire country is growing mostly by immigration. There's no question that the market is inflated in Vancouver, but it's unlikely that 260K Chinese millionaires is the extend of the people that moved there in the last 10 years.

A middle income family can still afford to purchase a detached home in greater Seattle, in Vancouver, unless you have a rich uncle from Hong Kong, you're buying a house in the Valley and spending ~2 hours+ in traffic a day.

Unless of course, you had a house to sell. And you probably ride transit.

The only person? The edge of the Abyss is the Canadian real estate market.......

I expect some kind of correction. As of yet, that's all I expect.

what do you think is going to happen to the market once those thousands of out of work O&G workers EI benefits, buy-outs and savings run out in the months ahead?

They're not living in the bubble in Toronto and Vancouver - the crash in those markets has been said to be coming for 6 years now. I'm still waiting.

Edited January 24, 2016 by Smallc

[Smallc]

msj, your entire argument is nonsense. Have you ever heard of the straw that broken the camel's back? A small change in the tax system can be enough for a lot of people to decide to change their decisions.

What's nonsense is this non response to actual numbers.

[Smallc]

Rework your variables to include an out of work engineer or IT worker, that made ~$250000 in the O&G sector

And they probably moved to Toronto.

[Derek 2.0]

I'm dealing with numbers based on the OP.

Add whatever qualitative factors you like, and I'm sure it's all Notley's fault too that Alaska's credit rating is in decline as well as oil prices.

Did the OP quantify he was currently employed?

I never said the decline was solely the fault of Provincial or Federal Governments......

Doesn't change the fact that the OP is questionable in rationale and logic.

Why is the United States the largest destination for Canadian emigrates?

[Smallc]

Why is the United States the largest destination for Canadian emigrates?

Language and proximity.

[msj]

None of that has anything to do with what we are talking about.

What is being discussed is this: hundreds of thousands of dollars is not enough encouragement for hitops to go foreign as he would earn more income and pay less tax even before considering the tax increase for incomes above $200k.

Oh no, but a thousand dollars (or maybe a few thousand if he made, say $300,000), that's enough to break the camels back.

It is clearly nonsensical.

Edited January 24, 2016 by msj

[On Guard for Thee]

Why is the United States the largest destination for Canadian emigrates?

Shouldn't that be obvious? Longest undefended border in the world and all that. Plus you can just walk across it. Crickey!

[-1=e^ipi]

What's nonsense is this non response to actual numbers.

If an apple costs $2 and a banana costs $1, I might choose to buy bananas. But if apples now cost $1.95, I might choose to buy apples instead.

None of that has anything to do with what we are talking about.

What is being discussed is this: hundreds of thousands of dollars is not enough encouragement for hitops to go foreign as he would earn more income and pay less tax even before considering the tax increase for incomes above $200k.

There are many costs of moving. Cultural, emotion, plus traveling costs.

[Derek 2.0]

I'm pretty sure the entire country is growing mostly by immigration. There's no question that the market is inflated in Vancouver, but it's unlikely that 260K Chinese millionaires is the extend of the people that moved there in the last 10 years.

I just cited my claim, that Vancouver is fueled by immigration and foreign money.........middle income families and refugees aren't buying homes in Kitts and Point Grey.....

Unless of course, you had a house to sell. And you probably ride transit.

How many young Canadians do you know that have $50000+ for a down payment for a (crappy) house......a crappy townhouse in Surrey or Richmond will cost nearly half a million............and no, a two hour daily (driving) commute is a conservative estimate, from Downtown to Coquitlam/North Delta/Surrey....Fraser Valley is probably pushing 3 hours.

[msj]

There are many costs of moving. Cultural, emotion, plus traveling costs.

Sure and this is still just an attempt to avoid the hard logic of my post with qualitative and irrelevant BS.

[Smallc]

I just cited my claim, that Vancouver is fueled by immigration and foreign money

Like the rest of the country.

.........middle income families and refugees aren't buying homes in Kitts and Point Grey.....

I didn't realize that those were the only places in Vancouver that people were moving to.

How many young Canadians do you know that have $50000+ for a down payment for a (crappy) house......a crappy townhouse in Surrey or Richmond will cost nearly half a million............and no, a two hour daily (driving) commute is a conservative estimate, from Downtown to Coquitlam/North Delta/Surrey....Fraser Valley is probably pushing 3 hours.

I'm pretty sure people work other places than downtown Vancouver (which is booming - like downtown Toronto).

[Smallc]

If an apple costs $2 and a banana costs $1, I might choose to buy bananas. But if apples now cost $1.95, I might choose to buy apples instead.

If you could sell apples here for $1, and in the US for $2.50...and now you can only sell apples here for $0.99, and still for $2.50 in the US, are you suddenly going to move?

Edited January 24, 2016 by Smallc

[Derek 2.0]

It is clearly nonsensical.

I don't know how you can claim that. I don't know hitops, but I do know there are plenty of former high wage earners (and many more middle income earners) that are now either unemployed or underemployed, and there is a considerable advantage in terms of both tax savings and an increase in purchasing power in the United States versus Canada....that is fact.

[-1=e^ipi]

Sure and this is still just an attempt to avoid the hard logic of my post with qualitative and irrelevant BS.

It's not hard logic. People have preferences and there are tipping points where people's behaviour will change.

If you could sell apples here for $1, and in the US for $2.50...and now you can only sell apples here for $0.99, and still for $2.50 in the US, are you suddenly going to move?

Depends on the individual's preferences.

[Smallc]

and there is a considerable advantage in terms of both tax savings and an increase in purchasing power in the United States versus Canada....that is fact.

Canada has been in worse situations before, and there was no mass exodus. I don't expect this time to be any difference.

[Smallc]

Depends on the individual's preferences.

Most individuals have spoken with their butts.

[-1=e^ipi]

And some individuals have not.

Different people have different preferences.

[Smallc]

And some individuals have not.

Different people have different preferences.

But most won't, and that was the whole point.

[Derek 2.0]

Like the rest of the country.

Are over 50% of the homes in your town being bought by millionaires from Hong Kong? Does a new one room condo in the downtown core in your community cost upwards of half a million dollars?

I didn't realize that those were the only places in Vancouver that people were moving to.

Rich people........outside of the ghetto in East Vancouver (and even then I doubt it), any detached home is approaching $1 million+.......A house in Point Grey, near UBC,, you'd be looking at $3 million plus for a tear down.

I'm pretty sure people work other places than downtown Vancouver (which is booming - like downtown Toronto).

Sure, its a big city.....but the office towers in the downtown core don't fill themselves, and that is a typical commute in the city on a good day in rush hour from the downtown core, and longer if coming from the Westside....If my wife was coming from UBC or Children's Hospital, add another 45 minutes...

[-1=e^ipi]

But most won't, and that was the whole point.

Why? If some individuals move it can still be a brain drain.

[Derek 2.0]

Canada has been in worse situations before, and there was no mass exodus. I don't expect this time to be any difference.

Yes there was, both in the 90s and the late 70s and early 80s.........As I said, Canadian emigration to the United States, like its economy, is cyclical.

[Smallc]

Are over 50% of the homes in your town being bought by millionaires from Hong Kong?

I don't remember the last time someone bought a home here. Regardless, those aren't the only people moving there - the actual point.

Rich people........outside of the ghetto in East Vancouver (and even then I doubt it), any detached home is approaching $1 million+.......A house in Point Grey, near UBC,, you'd be looking at $3 million plus for a tear down.

I understand the high house prices. Normal people still move to Vancouver - they rent.

Sure, its a big city.....but the office towers in the downtown core don't fill themselves, and that is a typical commute in the city on a good day in rush hour from the downtown core, and longer if coming from the Westside....If my wife was coming from UBC or Children's Hospital, add another 45 minutes...

*individual experiences may vary.

People still aren't leaving Canada over $1000.

[Smallc]

Why? If some individuals move it can still be a brain drain.

Sure, but at the moment, there isn't one.

[Derek 2.0]

Why? If some individuals move it can still be a brain drain.

And they do.

[Smallc]

Yes there was, both in the 90s and the late 70s and early 80s.........As I said, Canadian emigration to the United States, like its economy, is cyclical.

Less than 1% in certain sectors is far from a mass exodus.